Phew. Take a breath, hold it, and let it out slowly. This is wild.
I bet the assistant coaches are wondering what all the fuss was about regarding how difficult this was supposed to be. FCS to FBS? Easy. Recruiting to one of the worst teams in FBS? Ain't no problem. Academic hurdles? Please, the kids are lining up to clear them. Lack of NIL perks? We've got perks for life, my dude. Have you seen the average starting salary for Stanford grads?
All right, let's get serious. I have thoughts, and I'll try my best to organize them.
First, let's try to gain some perspective. We shouldn't get overly attached to individuals in this class. We will suffer losses from a combination of "Door No. 1" and possibly being "over-recruited." We can be confident we'll lose a recruit or two to admissions — maybe more. I wonder whether Taylor and his staff are the types to push out a kid because a better recruit wants to commit. That's to be determined. There were only a couple of examples in Shaw's entire tenure of us taking back an offer, and it was because the kid proved he was a terrible prospect.
I don't have data to back this up, but intuitively it makes sense that recruits who commit partly because of a deadline are more apt to look around and de-commit. That's a good bet to happen, too, especially once the season results give some fodder to negative recruiting about the new staff. Stanford should be well positioned to suffer less buyer's remorse than other programs. Parents usually love the decision, and it's hard to justify walking away from the opportunity.
It's a
BIG if, but
IF Stanford closes with the remaining four-star recruits we reportedly lead for,
AND we hold onto a reasonable number of current verbal commits; then we have a real shot at our first top 20 class since 2017. We were still considered a great program back then!
I also want to give a shoutout about a specific geographic area in a class represented coast-to-coast: I love the success in New Jersey. We struggled far more than we should have under Shaw to build a pipeline from Garden State to The Farm. There are talented recruits every year at the top schools in New Jersey who we should be able to recruit successfully.
There's some good discussion on the forum about roster management.
I count 22 (below). I am guessing you and I count Mayberry differently based on whether counts his 2020 enrolled but not playing football year. In any case, It does not strike me as beneficial to the team to lose all 22 of these players but you're right in the sense these are spots to play with. The thing that would most disturb me is if Rogers, McLaughlin, Pogorelc, Mayberry, and Bank all depart. That would leave us with Leyrer and is-he-an-OL-or-a-DL-or-totally-useless Uke as the only fourth year OL on a roster with zero fifth or sixth year OL. The 2024 roster would not be as healthy or promising as it could be in that scenario.
If you build in keeping three of the five upperclass OL, Phillips on DL, and say two other guys (notionally say Lytle as a transfer and Filkins as a guy who waited his turn behind Smith), that's 16 + 6 = 22. I still think the size of class it appears 2024 will be will require major roster upheaval.
Ideally, less useful guys like Raines, Buckey, Barrow, Ellis, Taylor, 1-2 among Patu/Daniels/Lamson, and the 2-3 weakest first or second year players transfer out to make room. But will Stanford push them out? Under Shaw we didn't have culture or cutthroat tactics in place to ensure that guys like Rogers and McLaughlin stay while guys like Raines and Buckey leave. It's not a small thing to tell somebody there's no spot for them months from being complete with their degree progress (heck, or years in the case of younger guys considering we sell on 40 year decisions).
Anyway, here's the list of scholarships to play with before we start cutting guys prior to degree completion:
58. EJ Smith
59. John Humphreys
60. Levi Rogers
61. Connor McLaughlin
62. James Pogorelc
63. Lukas Ungar
64. Tobin Phillips
65. Ben Yurosek
66. Bryce Farrell
67. Casey Filkins
68. Omari Porter
69. Alaka'i Gilman
70. Lance Keneley
71. Silas Starr
72. Trevor Mayberry
73. Joshua Karty
74. Bailey Parsons
75. Zahran Manley
76. Alec Bank
77. Tristan Sinclair
78. Spencer Lytle
79. Spencer Jorgensen
With only a couple of exceptions, the players in this list are trying out for spots to max out their eligibility at Stanford. That goes without saying, but I want to emphasize the point. In my opinion, Yurosek, Karty, and Phillips are the only ones exempt from the tryouts.
I'd prioritize taking the linemen from among the guys who are questionable because their résumés don't knock me out. Whenever possible, I'll take an average lineman who's a grownup over a receiver, running back, or cornerback who is also a grownup but hasn't made a compelling case to be invited to stay. I think we're recruiting receivers and running backs like we don't have any because the coaches aren't currently excited about bringing back Smith, Filkins, Starr, Farrell, and Humphreys. Unfortunately, Ungar seems a given to be gone because of his complete lack of availability.
I wouldn't be floored if someone from the future told me that only the OL, DL, and Lytle are on the roster next season.
Too harsh? Maybe 🤷♂️ . Probably 🤔. It's possible that some of the guys I have on the cut block instead rise and show their quality is better than any of us think because they're having fun. What a concept: a real scheme and enthusiasm as fuel for success. I'd love it if Humphreys and Farrell, in particular, experience a revival. I think it'd be cool if Filkins was productive and a leader the staff wants to keep around. We're a better team if Smith gives his doubters the ol' 🖕and excels in a WR/RB role for an entire season. All we can do is wait and see; that probably goes for the coaches, too.
Bottom line: There are many pathways to create room on the roster.
What will the camps be like?
One of the most apparent and most embarrassing signs of Stanford's decline was that the recruit camps in June and July have been useless as a program-improvement tool for years. It became only a paycheck for coaches and a great way for small high-academic colleges to find kids they wanted to offer.
Taylor has approved many offers to recruits who Shaw would have wanted to camp first. It makes sense. We couldn't wait around, and the coaches made decisions based on spring practices at high schools. That's cool with me. I'm curious about what we do with the June and July camp days. There will likely be an emphasis on getting 2025-2027s and 2024 walk-on candidates to show up.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'd be stoked to interview the Stanford football head coach about recruiting.
Celebrate!
We don't know how everything will play out in recruiting, development, games, culture building, etc., but we're excited to find out! That's a welcome change.