Read that here.

She’s tied for 13th at the Mizuho in Jersey City.
Stanford golfers. Valenzuela and Stackhouse tied for T25th and Lee to tee off in the second group.

So many times while typing, the screen freezes and the text I typed is painfully delayed. Often I get messages stating that "this website is using significant energy, closing it would great enhance the performance of your mac." Even typing this note has been really painful. FIX IT!

Game thread for today's softball game is here. Elimination game for the Cardinal against Washington. I'll provide updates in here as well.

I’ve landed…

Login to view embedded media

I have landed. 1-0 lead for the Aggies. Bottom of the 1st.



Login to view embedded media

I get the impression that I may be relatively more optimistic and less defeatist about the transfer portal's impact on Stanford football than many of our fans. My view has been the culture problems of inviting major roster churn every year will be detrimental to quality team-building (so a 4-5 year culture program like what Taylor is hopefully building could have an easier time navigating) and the economic incentives to focus NIL investments on transfers rather than recruits will make high school recruiting much easier for Stanford (because it will be so much less competitive). Consequently, while there are certainly challenges posed by the transfer portal, the effects point in all different directions (some good for Stanford, some bad, some neutral), making this more complicated than narratives that the sky is falling would suggest. And yet.....

I have been noticing all off-season that Pac-12 programs are dominating the transfer portal. My hypothesis for why this is the case has two prongs: I wonder if NIL payments are actually less decisive in driving transfer decisions than finding the highest level a player can compete, and I wonder if the Pac-12 is especially attractive for the kinds of players who avail themselves of the transfer portal precisely because the Pac-12 is the worst Power Five conference. Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State don't need new players as they already have the best players (and Clemson has both great players and a culture-building coach not very interested in transfers), so programs like USC and Oregon become especially attractive for the superstars in search of a bigger stage and/or mercenary type players. Meanwhile, the vast majority of players in the transfer portal are in there because they think their next stop would offer a better opportunity for playing time. In other words, they're typically not good enough to compete in the top power conferences. The Pac-12 thus becomes the proverbial small(er, while still being Power Five, an enormous distinction) pond for the biggest transfer portal fish.

The data on the Pac-12's transfer portal dominance is really stark. I prefer to use the On3 rankings because they sensibly account for both incoming and outgoing transfers. After a 2022 transfer off-season in which the Pac-12 had three of the top 11 transfer winners (#2 USC, #6 UCLA, #11 Arizona), this 2023 transfer off-season the Pac-12 rankings are bonkers: #2 USC, #3 Colorado, #4 UCLA, #11 Arizona State, #13 Washington, #14 Oregon, and #24 Cal. Three of the top four transfer portal winners come from our conference, a tectonic event for our competitive landscape. The Pac-12 is less than 18 percent of the Power Five but 28 percent of the teams that are among the top 25 beneficiaries of this off-season's transfer portal.

Anyway, don't think I've seen this observed on this site and I just wanted to share as food for thought. For all my relative optimism about Stanford's ability to compete (not in 2023 but in future years), this is somewhat bracing. For what it's worth, the main conclusion I draw from this is Stanford has no choice but to bring it in high school recruiting. For most of our history a top 25 recruiting class was viewed as a success. In this landscape, in which a #25 recruiting class will in actuality be paired with a ______ transfer class (and my guess is that even if and when Taylor turns us around we're not going to be doing better than #40 or so transfer classes), I think Stanford needs to be a top 25 high school recruiting power, full stop. #25 should be a minimum bar, not an achievement. Not saying we should expect Taylor to do that with the 2024 class, but at least for me seeing how ripe the transfer portal is for the exact teams we have to compete with (Arizona State, Washington, Oregon, Cal) clarifies the stakes.

P.S. A related thought is that USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington as well as several lesser programs that draw from the western part of the country all leaning into the transfer portal in a way that distinguishes the Pac-12 compared to other Power Five conferences is an argument in support of the age old call by some Stanford fans for us to focus more on recruiting California. I’ve never liked that position, both because I truly believe our academic niche requires national recruiting and because I don’t think a California player is better than a Georgia or Texas player per se. But maybe circumstances have come around to a strategic reason to prioritize California recruits. USC and UCLA are largely ceding the space compared to how they’ve operated for, oh, a hundred years and simultaneously we’re seeing the non-SoCal schools lean in to the transfer portal (and by extension away from high school recruiting). Maybe it’s time for Stanford to become more of a preferred destination for California recruits.

Read that here.

Read that here.

The women completed the first round at -21 at Pullman. Englemann and Zhang are -8 and in first by a stroke. Ganne is -4, Xu -1 and Ye at even.
Ye had 3 bogeys in the front and finished with three bids in the last six holes.
Top five of twelve teams advance to the NCAA finals.

Wow, has this got to be an affirmation of those who decry white privilege.

Read that here.

Read that here.

Read that here.

The latest:

Read that here.

Xavier Lucas, who told us last week he has been waiting on the Cardinal to join the race. Now it has, as of Tuesday evening. Lengthy prospect who can work corner or safety in college imo.

Login to view embedded media
Login to view embedded media

Read that here. Courtesy of Adam Gorney. He addresses 2024 4-star QB Elijah Brown and calls it a Stanford/USC race with Stanford possibly having the edge. Given what I've most recently learned, between the two schools, I would definitely give the Cardinal the edge without a doubt.


Login to view embedded media

The football recruiting notes thread for May has arrived. The April thread is here. Coaches are currently on the road seeing recruits, making offers, etc.


May got off to a nice start with the commitment of 2024 defensive end Connor Bachhuber today. Join the conversation about that here. Stanford currently now has four players committed for 2024 and one player committed for 2025 (Charlie Hoitink). A little bit more on Hoitink, from what I heard, it sounded like he more or less committed on the spot. There was a bit of a delay from when he was offered to when he committed, but as soon as he got the offer, he was all in. So that was cool to hear.

None of these current commits are big-time recruits, but the combination of the school selling itself and Stanford playing a more exciting brand of football I think will help them reel in some high caliber dudes in the future. The staff is very eager and energetic on the recruiting trail, which I think at this point, is the best you all can hope for. They recognize it's going to be a process, but that seems to excite and motivate them.

Regarding 2024 guys who could be the next to commit or at least be in that next batch, Stanford has made the top six for 4-star wide receiver Kwazi Gilmer along with Cal, Washington, Michigan State, UCLA, and Oklahoma. Stanford also made the top six for 3-star ATH/safety Davis Andrews along with Utah, BYU, Tennessee, UCLA, and Notre Dame. Same drill with 3-star OLB Cole Sullivan, only he released a top five of Stanford, Duke, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Notre Dame. On top of those guys, anyone who visited for any of the junior days, especially March and April since those were more recent, are also possible to commit as well unless they've of course committed elsewhere.

Two big names to watch on defense: 4-star defensive ends Benedict Umeh and Dylan Stephenson. Umeh visited for the March Junior Day and Stephenson visited for the April Junior Day. I don't know if there is a perceived front runner for Umeh, but for Stephenson, it's Miami (FL). If one of those guys were to commit, maybe that would help reel in the other. Of all the visitors they've had recently, those are the two biggest names on defense.

And then on offense, in addition Gilmer, 4-star quarterback Elijah Brown is the big target on offense. He visited for the April Junior Day. There were rumblings from the well-connected IG account that he was committing soon when instead it was Micah Ford. While Brown hasn't yet committed to a school, as I said in the April thread, the good news here is it looks like Stanford has him higher on their board than other schools. Some of the other top programs on him are waiting to see what others guys do and that gives Stanford a golden opportunity to say "Hey Elijah, we never had you number two on our list." He doesn't appear to be in a rush to make a decision, but Stanford nonetheless does seem to be sitting in a good spot with him.

And then lastly, in transfer portal related news, I mentioned this in the transfer portal themed thread, but things do appear to be trending in a very good direction with Syracuse transfer quarterback Justin Lamson. From what I learned, it looks like he is planning to visit Stanford for a second time after having a positive visit back in January. Once I get a date for his second visit, I'll let you guys know. Stanford is hoping to add a quarterback via the portal and Lamson appears to be the guy they are zeroing in on. The interest certainly is mutual from what I've learned. If he can get admitted, I bet he comes.

Ok, that's all I have for now. If there's anything I missed or anybody who I missed that I should have mentioned, just comment below and I'll do my best to answer any questions you have.

Another great interview on TOS that I finally got around to reviewing once I had some free time, this time on new corners coach Paul Williams. My reactions:

* This interview reinforced my overall impression of Williams, which is an established, veteran coach we're bringing in to develop players. Staffs have a range of skill sets and personalities and part of that is that some coaches are relied on more for really developing their rooms (as opposed to guys whose main value add is through recruiting). Theoretically all coaches need to walk and chew gum at the same time and you sacrifice something damaging if coaches fall short in either player development or recruiting. I'm hoping the new staff gets this balance right better than the old staff. But realistically individual coaches are going to have different value propositions and some positions are going to be relatively more or less important to coach. I see cornerback as one of the more important positions to coach up and Williams as one of the cleanest resumes of player development on the staff.

* Before sharing more thoughts on Williams, the discussion of differences between position coach roles made me want to update my count of how many scholarship players each assistant is responsible for. Given that Taylor constructed his staff dramatically differently than Shaw, this is going to look a lot different, with a lot more individualized attention for linemen and defensive backs. Based on my count of 2023 scholarships, I'm tracking that Taylor will be head coach and offensive coordinator as well as having four scholarship (from here out all numbers refer to scholarships, omitting the word just for brevity) QBs in his room, April will be defensive coordinator as well as having seven OLBs (but Armitage a distinct possibility to be more of a DL), Gregory will be special teams coordinator (three specialists and dozens of players working with the teams) as well as having six S (possibility for an addition or two depending on incoming class position assignments), Netter/Talamaivao will co-coach 14 OL, Osborne will have ten WRs (in addition to helping with the four QBs), Kolodziej will have nine DL (possibly ten pending Armitage.....note this count includes Geweniger and Staples, who I was surprised to see listed as DL on the official site), Williams will have eight DBs (possibility for a subtraction or two depending on incoming class position assignments), D'Onofrio will have seven ILBs, Agnew will have six RBs, and Byham will have five TEs. WR and DL stand out as being in the most danger of lacking individualized coaching attention while ILB, RB, and TE - as usual, nature of the sport - are lighter position rooms. How Osborne does as Robin to Taylor's Batman will interest me....seems like a lot being thrown at Osborne due to our co-OL coach experiment. I expect D'Onofrio to help as a sounding board for April and Agnew and Byham to be recruiters first and foremost.

* My main takeaway from all of this will not be a surprise to anyone who has read my takes on staff construction before: with OL and DB accounting for nearly half of the snaps on their respective sides of the ball, there is a strong case to be made for more specialized coaching, which we are definitely doing with our DB coaching breakdown and are kind of doing on OL - not so much specialized as more individualized by getting more coverage. Moreover, we currently have fewer DBs on the roster than was often the case under Akina so will be likely to get even more individualized attention in that regard.

* The big question for us at DB is whether this more specialized and individualized attention will pay off in player development. There are reasons to think it will and reasons to think it won't. Akina was not chopped liver as a coach and as antiquated as I believe a one DB coach arrangement to be, the Shaw regime left a higher bar to clear at DB coaching (especially if you also lump in DB recruiting) than at most positions. There are also fair questions about Gregory's extremely light and extremely dated experience as a safeties coach (have to hope generalized teaching chops and football knowledge will compensate). But on balance I'm an optimist on this front, mainly because of Williams' track record.

* To dig deeper into Williams' track record, my first approximation of his coaching acumen was an analysis I did at the time of hire comparing his Wake Forest CB grades with Akina's Stanford CB grades in the same time period. Among 27 Wake Forest or Stanford CB seasons between 2020-2022, seven of the top ten were from Wake Forest and seven of the bottom ten were from Stanford. That seems pretty suggestive of better CB coaching at Wake Forest, especially considering Stanford's higher standard of recruiting.

* Another metric that might appeal is Williams' track record in developing NFL corners. Williams came in to Wake the same year as Caelen Carson, the composite #1725 recruit, and coached Carson the last three years to the point Carson is now viewed as a fringe top ten corner prospect for next year's draft. In last year's draft Ja'Sir Taylor, a former composite #1900 recruit who Williams inherited and coached his last two years in college, got drafted in the sixth round and had 22 tackles and a pass defended as a rookie for the Chargers. [Two Houston corners who transferred to Houston for the 2019 season got drafted last year and if Williams recruited them that is a feather in his evaluation cap but not coaching cap since he never coached them] In the 2019 draft, Isaiah Johnson, who was the #1462 composite recruit, became a fourth round pick after getting one year of coaching from Williams in Johnson's second year as a corner (after being a converted receiver). Williams' bio has the following eye-catching series of claims about mentoring NFL talent: "Williams has a long history of training NFL talent during his coaching career. Williams has 11 players on active NFL rosters and has produced 14 NFL draft picks from five different schools. In his last six stops as an on-field coach, Williams has produced at least one NFL defensive back." That's impressive, especially given the many years he's coached at programs that don't recruit at as high a level as Stanford typically does. But what I find most salient is what Williams has done in recent years while specializing as a corners coach. That's what's apples-to-apples with what we hired him for and if you look through that lens you'll find Carson, Taylor, and Johnson. That strikes me as extraordinarily impressive in terms of NFL output from a four year stretch at minor recruiting powers like Houston and Wake Forest, and it doesn't even include the two Houston guys he may have evaluated and recruited as transfers. If you look at the 2019-2024 drafts, Akina's NFL resume is Paulson Adebo (composite #110), Kyu Blu Kelly (composite #730), and Kendall Williamson (composite #426), a comparable level of output from an extraordinarily higher base level of talent. I don't expect Williams to be able to get 4-star and extremely high 3-star corners to commit to Stanford at the rate Akina did, as that was unprecedented in Stanford's history, but I don't think Williams has to. He's already proven that he can churn out NFL prospects from much lower on-paper talent bases.

* Another way to look into Williams' coaching acumen is to assess his frequency in producing all-conference corners. By that measure, Williams had an honorable mention guy in 2020, two honorable mention in 2021, and nothing in 2022, which compares to Stanford having an honorable mention in 2020, a second teamer in 2021, and a second teamer in 2022, although all three Stanford honors were Kyu Blu Kelly whereas Williams coached up two corners to honors rather than Stanford's one. In the three years at Wake Forest prior to Williams, the Demon Deacons had one honorable mention corner, a second team corner, and a third team corner, all the same guy so like the Stanford situation unable to have multiple honored guys like Williams did. Before Wake Forest, Williams did not have an honoree in his lone year at Houston, which also did not have any corners honored the year before Williams arrived or the year after he departed. Before Houston he coached DB groups writ large and wasn't specialized as solely a corners coach. In 2017 at Illinois he had two honorable mention guys (a corner and a safety); in the three years following Williams Illinois had three honorable mention guys over the three years combined, including a guy whose first two years of instruction were from Williams and a guy who played his first year under Williams and had a higher PFF grade in his one year with Williams than any of the three subsequent years. At Miami, WIlliams had a first team all-conference safety in his first year in 2011 and a second team corner in his last year in 2015; the Williams era was a major slump for Miami as they had six first or second team DBs in the five years preceding Williams and five in the five years after Williams. Based on this data, one can reasonably surmise that Williams has grown as a coach over time.

A look at the 2025 Rivals250 quarterbacks here:

down 8-2 going into bottom of the 2nd. Matthews hammered, gawdawful fielding & decidsions/goofs by the defense. Dowd ends the disastrous top of the 2nd, down 6 runs.
Matthews not the Pac12 Pitcher of the Year tonight, but he wasn't helped any by that simply pathetic defensive display. Long steep uphill climb if we're gonna get out of this deep hole.

Read that here. I meant to get this published sooner, but figured while I'm here in the Frankfurt airport waiting for my flight, I would just publish it now.

Women’s Rowing wins its second NCAA title ever, Stanford’s third this year, 134th overall.

Login to view embedded media

Dylan Stephenson, who has already been out that way before