Troy Taylor, Sam Roush, and Tristan Sinclair will address the media. I’ll drop a link to the presser once it’s live.

Here is our non-conference schedule with opponent's current KenPom rankings, which are obviously early and may change as the season progresses:

Denver (308) (win)
CS Fullerton (286) (win)
N Arizona (277) (win)
UC Davis (163)
Norfolk St (212)
@ Santa Clara (109)
(Neutral Site) Grand Canyon (73)
**Acrisure Final/Third Place (maybe we are playing one of SMU (59)/Cal Baptist(167)/Fresno State(246)/Washington State (93) or maybe not - the website for this tournament is really unclear)
Utah Valley (126)
Merrimack (186)
(Neutral Site) Oregon (35)

Summary: an absolutely pathetic schedule. UC Davis will be a significant upgrade from our first three games and roughly the median of our overall opponents. The games against Oregon and GCU are probably our only chances for quality non-conference Ws. There is only one true road game, which will be a tricky one at Santa Clara that we absolutely must win to have a credible bubble argument. Not much margin for error.

Preview is here.

It's big game week and we have all these articles from Stanford students in the Stanford Daily acting like we need to get humbled by Berkeley. No one cares about athletics at Stanford. It's a classic and false trope that the "lowly" public UC Berkeley are the good guys doing the right thing and we all sold out for the "evil" private Stanford Inc.

Time for a new recruiting notes thread. October thread is here. If anyone has any recruiting questions they'd like to me answer, fire away.

Preview is here.

Got an email today with a link to the following event which seems like it could be worthwhile. Aside from the topic, the speakers are definitely more relevant to the future and the support of athletics. Most interestingly, I did not know that there was a COO for Athletics. How long has that been a thing, and what exactly is the portfolio?

It's also not clear to whom she reports. The fact that Bernie is not part of this presentation and the COO has a media/growth company background is intriguing.

And for those who rue the inaccuracies and inattention to detail from the SID, it carries over into the Alumni Association. I am not sure what a Chief Operator Officer is, but that's Alden's title in the registration blurb.

ACC/NIL discussion 10/10

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Flipped from Harvard. Congrats and welcome Ebuka!

Read that here.

Maybe someone posted in another thread, but thought it deserved its own one....

I watched College Football Final yesterday on ESPNU to see what the reaction was to Stanford beating Louisville 38-35. One was Joey Galloway simply saying "that's a long trip home for Louisville."

But then I thought maybe Emmet Mosley would get a Helmet Sticker given his superlative game. The guys who were getting them had put up even bigger numbers than Mosley, but then I saw a Stanford helmet on the desk and thought "Oh, Mosley's gonna get one." But no! Host Matt Barrie picked up the Stanford helmet and said "the whole Stanford team" gets the helmet sticker for coming back from down 14 in final 7 minutes to win.

Can't remember the last time a Stanford helmet was adorned with a CFF Helmet Sticker. Maybe they gave one to Ayonmonor last year following his Colorado game?

On a related note, as atrocious as Daniels has been in general, he's had some pretty noteworthy games in his Stanford career. That game at Colorado, the opening ACC win at Syracuse, and the Louisville game are all cool highlight memories he will have when his football career ends. He even almost beat Washington last year too. You could have a worse career as a College QB.

Read that here.

Looks like a former player is crowd sourcing NIL

The new Rivals250: https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals250/2025
Biggest risers: https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-rankings-week-ten-biggest-risers-in-the-rivals250-32
Position-by-position breakdown: https://n.rivals.com/news/tuesdays-with-gorney-new-2025-rivals250-released-8
The Five-Star Countdown: https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-rankings-week-five-star-countdown-for-2025-class-17
Meet the new five-stars: https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-rankings-week-meet-the-new-five-stars-8
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1. We needed that! Just when we thought there was no joy in Mudville and the team was at risk of mutiny, the good guys go out and win not only a home game but one against a ranked opponent playing for an outside shot at the playoff. It is Stanford's first win against a ranked opponent since the 2021 Oregon game (2022 Notre Dame played well enough after losing to us to become ranked but was not ranked at the time we beat them) and first such win this late in a season since the 2017 Notre Dame game. We just don't knock off real contenders like this. Thrilling, to say the least. It's especially sweet to break the appalling drought at home against legitimate opposition, and on Senior Day at that. This is the first home win against an FBS opponent since the Arizona State game in 2022 more than two years ago and only the third in the last 1,847 days, a more than five year stretch. Winning on a walk-off kick after a dramatic comeback from 14 points down is the height of catharsis, most of all for the players who have toiled in such futility for so long but also for the few fans who continue to support the program, especially those who made it out to the game. We shouldn't be under any illusions that this is anything but a terrible team or that one day turned things around - we are now Sagarin #104 and SP+ #103, still in the running as one of the worst teams in Stanford history, and we still have not had a game playing like a top 25 team (our games this year have been befitting the #76, #66, #28, #113, #158, #147, #165, #113, #204, and #30 teams in the nation) - but that is a great win considering opponent, fashion, occasion, and impact on morale.

2. In thinking about the much-needed and much-appreciated boost to morale, my mind immediately goes to how credibly the coaches can sell this to players hungry for belief as not only reward for hard work but also as a reflection of team-wide contributions. There were failings in each phase, to be sure (more on that below), but much more salient in a win is that there were major contributions in each phase. On some level, this game was won on the backs of individual performances such as those that get the game balls but even still it wasn't a case where it's hard to identify a standout or two in any phase. Each unit did something to chip in. Most importantly, the win came down to battling with a superior opponent grittily and consistently enough to be in a position to capitalize when that opponent made self-defeating mistakes. When we hear about teams learning how to win this is what that means. And to the extent Taylor is selling/spinning a narrative that the team's level of performance flies in the face of serious adversity, pulling this off on a day without numerous starters, including Wright and Sinclair, helps build belief in the narrative.

3. In my view, this game came down to four things: penalties, time of possession, fourth down brilliance, and remarkable individual performances. There was a huge discrepancy between the undisciplined Cardinals committing 13 penalties for 102 yards compared to the disciplined Cardinal committing 3 penalties for 30 yards. As Taylor noted in the post-game press conference in classily declining to pile on to Brohm's end-of-game management, the reason the sequence doomed Louisville is because they subsequently committed multiple (idiotic) penalties that gave us a chance on the game-winning field goal. We wouldn't have won without Louisville's lack of discipline throughout the game and especially late. The stats are reflective of Louisville having the edge on us aside from penalties. Nonetheless, one of the big stories of the game in my view is that it was an edge for Louisville, not a dramatic advantage, and we smartly neutralized that edge by dominating time of possession (35+ minutes, an extra drive than Louisville had, and 71 plays, which were five more than both Louisville in this game and our season average in 2024). Against all odds (seriously, oddsmakers had this one as a no-hoper for us and in fact more moneyline bets were placed on Louisville than any other team in the country this week), we kept this one to an edge for Louisville rather than a dramatic advantage because of stellar execution on fourth downs and standout performances by a few individuals. On defense, we had a third quarter turnover on downs due to buckling down on 2nd and 2 and connecting three consecutive good plays. On offense, we were three for three in insanely high-leverage fourth down situations: 4th down from our own 34 on the first drive of the game, the back of the endzone touchdown on 4th and goal from the 4, and the play of the game with the game-tying touchdown on 4th and 1 from the 25 (shades of Pritchard to Sherman for me). And ultimately, as true as all of the above is, a top 30 team lost to a not-top 100 team in no small part due to individual brilliance that will get their flowers below.

4. Offense and defense both competed quite credibly given the level of opponent. Both the Stanford offense and the Louisville offense scored 2.92 points per drive, a result I will take any time against this opponent. The Stanford offense's effort made the #82 points per drive defense look like the #112 points per drive defense while the Stanford defense's effort made the #23 points per drive offense look like the #20 points per drive offense. Our offense averaged 5.72 yards per play, the best we've done against an FBS opponent other than NC State and above average compared to Louisville's opponents (SMU, Miami, and Georgia Tech did better). A good case can be made that this is the best we've done on offense against a competent defense in the Taylor era. The defense held its own against Louisville, the best yards per play offense on our schedule. We played them tough enough for it to be a middling performance by our yards per play defense and a good one compared to their schedule, holding them to .31 yards per play under their season average (Notre Dame, Clemson, and Miami did better).

5. We did better in the passing phases than the running phases. On offense, this was our highest FBS game passer rating and second highest yards per attempt of the season and the highest passer rating Louisville has given up and fourth highest yards per attempt. Louisville doesn't have a good pass defense but we've faced worse (Syracuse, Wake) and this was a good performance both by our standards and compared to how others do. In contrast, our run game was pitiful, the worst we've done aside from SMU but at least SMU has an elite run defense. Can't say the same for Louisville. We rushed for 56.5 yards and 1.55 yards per carry less than the Louisville norm allowed, the worst any non-Austin Peay team has done this year. It is hard to square this with it being such a good offensive performance for us overall, especially since it's not like we abandoned the run. In fact, 37 rushes is just about exactly (slightly higher even) our season average of 36.5 rushes per game. I am left thinking the standout individual offensive performance really goes an enormous part of the way in explaining the offensive success (I know, I am leaving you all in such suspense on whose performance that was).

6. Defense gave us the stat of the week: yesterday was the best we've done in passer rating allowed or yards per attempt allowed even including Cal Poly. Among Louisville's opponents, only Clemson did clearly better than us in pass defense and we were roughly comparable to how Notre Dame, Virginia, and Miami did. Shough is a top 20 percent QB nationally (#25 in America) and we made him look not quite that good (top 36 percent). This all happened with our best cover guy (Wright) out and no sacks (and an insanely pathetic eight pressures total, the lowest we've had all season and a number that beggars belief). Plus PFF didn't even grade our coverage as doing well, and Louisville had two 100+ yard receivers. Very hard to make sense of how our pass efficiency defense stats were so good (certainly it made a big difference to only give up one passing touchdown, but we were good on YPA too). It seems inescapable to me that the defensive coaches get a gold star for dialing this up with Wright, Sinclair, and Manley out. Run defense did not do as well statistically and this one will not go in the column of games where our run defense did better than the opponent norm, though the stats are skewed by giving up a 68 yard touchdown, 42 percent of Louisville's rushing output on the game. Still, we gave up a 68 yard rushing touchdown and that's bad. Nonetheless, I do consider it a bounce back from the run defense, especially considering Sinclair and Wright were out. For what it's worth, we are now all the way down to #90 in yards per carry allowed, still the best of our four main phases but now bad enough that we can't credibly say this team has any strengths.

Read that here.

If we finish 5-7, could we go to a bowl?

Read that here.

Stanford men’s basketball has landed a commitment from 2025 Latvian power forward Kristers Skrinda. He’s 6’10. Cool to see Stanford landing an overseas guy. I’ll have more on him in my write up.

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Another nice win for the good guys. After a strong first half where Raynaud was dominant, we saw a comfortable 18-point halftime lead evaporate down to 5 after Blakes picked up his 4th foul and a dumb turnover resulted in a Davis dunk.

Agarwal hit a clutch 3 (only points on the day) and Cammann had a huge and 1 and we pulled away to win comfortably. I’m perfectly happy with this win given how cold our shooting was.

Some thoughts:

Ty Johnson is a talented guard who gashed us for 26 points. With Blakes in foul trouble, we didn’t have a good way to guard him and relied on a lot of 2-3 zone in the 2nd half.

Gealer shot 1-10 but the shots were close, no concerns with the game he played (0 turnovers and good FT shooting). We do need Blakes to stay out of foul trouble and lock down the opponent’s top perimeter threat. He is our 2nd most valuable player after Raynaud.

Raynaud had a huge game, controlling the glass, making 5 of our 8 3s and somehow only picking up his first foul late in the 2nd half. STUD.

This is clearly a 7 man rotation, with 192 of the 200 minutes going to our core guys. Batson and Saran say limited action in the first half. Nobody outside our core 7 saw action in the 2nd half.

Smith said that Agarwal was the team’s 2nd best rebounder and I took it as hyperbole but he was all over the glass today.

Sellers has alternated awesome games and stinkers (today was a stinker). Could his Cardinal debut also be his career high for points (like Ziaire and Michael Jones?) I still like his game and ability to contribute defensively.

There was good kid turnout (I brought 50+ Cub scouts!) but the student section was pathetic. I’m not sure they deserve those primo seats if they can’t even get them halfway full. Muir’s “box” was almost entirely empty as well.

One more easy tune up before the Santa Clara and GCU games. Let’s run the table!

Any new recruiting news? Who is still in play? Has our big man from Latvia signed?

My rankings of the most indispensable players on this year’s roster (i.e. who can we least afford to miss extended time):

Raynaud:
Smith is going to ride him hard. Rare for a center to lead a team in MPG but he has a clear lead so far. Our top scorer and rebounder with very efficient percentages.

Blakes:
My clearcut number two. He’s been so good on defense and really efficient on offense, getting to the line and hitting his FTs while finishing around the hoop well!

Gealer:
Clearly third (and some might argue second). Given our lack of ball handling, he’s a piece we need to keep healthy all season.

Sellers:
A coin flip with Agarwal, Sellers has shown a bit more, albeit he’s been inconsistent this season.

Agarwal:
We’ve talked a ton about this kid. Such a great surprise after a redshirt season.

Okpara:
This is the only “core” guy who has disappointed so far. He plays a lot of bully ball that likely won’t translate at the ACC and his shot hasn’t been good. Still, he’s a valuable piece and strong defender.

Cammann:
If you told me last spring that our 24-25 team would prominently feature Cammann and Agarwal, I would’ve assume we were completely f**ked. Cammann hasn’t shown up in the box score (averaging a meager 1.5 RPG to 3.3 fouls) but looks like he belongs and is a solid platoon with Okpara. Their development this year will be critical to fill the Raynaud void.

Not sure who I would put in the 8 spot. Maybe Saran given our thin backcourt ball handling? Or Batson Jr? Or Young, since we have yet to see his game?

Thoughts?

Preview is here.

This is the line Cal is favored by odds makers over Stanford. It is insane, IMO. Who are the teams Cal has beaten by more than 13 pts?

UC Davis, San Diego State, Oregon State. Cal played SDSU with its backup QB, and the Beavers were shutout by Air Force this weekend, 28-0, their second time shutout this season.

Cal should not be relied on to beat any ACC team by 2 TDs. They were favored by 9.5 over NC State and found a way to lose. They were 7pt favorites at Wake Forest and were defending a 3pt lead late in the 4th Quarter before getting a 5th turnover from WF and scoring a late TD to win by 10. They were 7.5 pt favorites to Syracuse and lost by 8.

It's almost like the public somehow takes Cal seriously after beating Auburn and losing to Miami close. Reality is all the close losses betray a not very good team, just like the Niners and Bengals in the NFL this season.

Decisive 5-0 win vs UCSB (35-7 in shots). Looked sharp and well-rested in front of a sellout crowd. UCSB probably a significant step down in competitiveness from our week-in-week-out battles with strong ACC teams.

Because NCAA soccer wants to put 4 teams at each location next weekend, we don't host, even though we're the higher seed (#3) in the next game versus Rutgers #6 or UConn. Arkansas (#2) gets to host the weekend.

PS - Lots of athletic energy Friday night...Stanford/Cal Water Polo 6pm, NCAA Soccer 6pm, Volleyball 7pm.