Joshua Karty made the All Pac-12 first team. Congrats!

Several Stanford players got All Pac-12 Honorable Mention -- Elic Ayomanor, Alaka'i Gilman, Tristan Sinclair, and Benjamin Yurosek.

Ayomanor got Honorable Mention for Offensive Freshman of the Year. Collin Wright got Honorable Mention for Defensive Freshman of the Year.

I was looking to DVR the playoff games and couldn’t find them on the NBC Sports Bay Area channel who carried games in the past. The Mercury News had an article about the Serra - Mater Dei and in it, they had a reference to the NFHS network. Turns out they will be streaming the games.
NFHS: “The NFHS Network covers 27 different regular season and postseason sports, as well as other high school activities, celebrating the accomplishments of students-athletes, student-broadcasters, and high schools across the country.

Partnered with the National Federation of State High School Associations, 44+ high school state athletic/activities associations, and PlayOn! Sports, the NFHS Network is a joint venture created to provide fans with the ability to stream high school sports on any device, from wherever they are.”

I signed up for a month to watch the games. I’ll check out the other sports and leagues they carry to see if it’s worthwhile keeping my subscription past a month. It says that NFHS is on Apple TV but I couldn’t find it.

Read and watch that here.

Read that here.

I know it felt like our injury rate was astronomically high in '21 and '22, attributing it to our lack of strength and conditioning to some degree

Did we think this year was better? -- it feels like it was a bit better. Although its crazy how Humphreys and Yurosek have had such a hard time staying on the field

Was there one this year? All my searches are coming up empty.

I know some view the outbound transfers as dead to us but when I catch sight of somebody in another game I tend to root for them. If anything, I fully blame Stanford and its powers-that-be and former powers-that-be for not sustaining an environment that kept people in the fold. I hope in the future we don't have quite so many people doing significant things elsewhere. Anyway, a power ranking based on PFF with snaps parenthetically:

Drake Nugent - (362) - 79.9
Stephen Herron (308) - 75.5
Walter Rouse (374) - 71.4
Levani Damuni (187) - 69.7
Austin Jones (157) - 68.5
Nathaniel Peat (149) - 68.1
Aeneas DiCosmo (251) - 67.1
Jonathan McGill (351) - 66.8
Drake Metcalf - (172) - 65.4
Andres Fox (120) - 64.6
Jacob Mangum-Farrar (336) - 63.7
Myles Hinton (191) - 62.7
Nicolas Toomer - (159) - 60.6
Jake Hornibrook - (345) - 59.5
Colby Bowman (218) - 57.3
Bradley Archer (173) - 56.2
Barrett Miller (478) - 49.1

Ryan Sanborn - 67.4 as a punter

Houston Heimuli (37) - 87.8
Arlen Harris (3) - 59.5

Salim Turner-Muhammad has not played (injured)

This is ordered in terms of PFF grades, but quantity has a quality all its own so some guys like McGill and Mangum-Farrar could be higher for garnering that many snaps.

I think I remembered everybody but perhaps somebody can point out if I missed anyone.

While it's water under the bridge, obviously Nugent would be our best player (for the third year in a row) if he still played for us and Herron, Rouse, and Damuni would be huge additions to the team. I don't think it's lost on anybody what the Nugent and Rouse losses meant so while this is a visualization I'm not sure it tells us anything new. Thought folks might find it interesting though.

With the season complete we can take stock of how the season went relative to preseason expectations. Some ways of looking at this:

* Vegas pegged our over/under at 2.5, with a 60.2 percent chance of going over. In other words, considering wins aren't divisible, three wins was our most likely outcome this year. We ended up with three wins.

* Sagarin pegged us as the #94 team in the country. We are currently #102 in Sagarin.

* SP+ pegged us as the #92 team in the country. We are currently #109 in SP+.

* Our most reasonable fans all seemed to think 3-5 wins was where we'd end up this year. We ended up having a tougher schedule than some bargained for and a disproportionate amount of injuries compared to Pac-12 teams historically and ended up with three wins.

Compared to preseason expectations, this was about a par for the course and definitely closer to a bogey than a birdie. In terms of grades, it's something like a B-. However, I don't want to lose sight of the bottom line I harped on all off-season that this season didn't really matter and was not about results but rather about vibes. What matters for us is turning the page from Shaw, building a competitive culture, laying a foundation that can be built on with a roster that turns over/transforms over several years, stanching the bleeding/injecting energy into our enervated program, and not stalling so much that it undermines our future recruiting pitches. In the off-season I pithily summed this up as "vibes." That's what really mattered this year. We have a credible sense of direction and leadership in our program. That matters much more than whether we had four or three wins or were Sagarin #94 or #102 or were SP+ #92 or #109. Nonetheless, we should be clear-eyed that the program did not exceed expectations this year. At best it treaded water.

SP+ gives us a reasonably objective way to look more granularly at the components, accounting for things like recent season baselines, returning production, recruiting, strength of competition, etc. Here's what that picture looks like:

Offense: SP+ expected us to have the #115 offense and currently has us #92. That looks like a modest exceeding of expectations, which I consider encouraging given the seasons/injuries Yurosek, Humphreys, Smith, Filkins, Leyrer, Pale, and Anderson had. If you told me heading into the year that Smith would be the only one to play all season and that the group would combine for 40 missed games among them, I would have been sure we would have one of the worst offenses in the nation. I actually think it's really noteworthy to have gotten so little from that group and be #92 in SP+. And arguably that underrates our offense as FEI says #78. Even scoring offense (#112) and yards per play (#110) were very slightly higher than that preseason expectation of #115. I think it's clear that when you account for circumstances this was an encouraging season on offense.

Defense: SP+ expected us to have the #73 defense and currently has us #118. That looks like a pretty significant failure to match expectations, which is a major bummer to me but probably something I should have braced myself for more with a first-time defensive coordinator, a highly unusual thing for a Power Five defense to rely on. I had not prepared my heart for Stanford being one of the absolute worst defenses in America and I don't think many of us had preseason. This picture of Stanford as one of the worst defenses in America is unambiguous. FEI has us #120. Scoring defense says #132 (and 0.1 points per game away from falling below UMass for the worst in America). Yards per play is #126. I think it's clear that Bobby April III had a disaster of a first season.

Special Teams: I am having trouble seeing if SP+ had a preseason special teams ranking (I have to imagine it did but I can't find it) but it had us #18 in 2022 and #22 in 2021 and with Karty back I'd imagine that's a fair ballpark. SP+ currently has us #37 in special teams. That looks like a modest drop from expectations, which might be expected with the tradeoff going from a dedicated special teams coach to focusing more coaching attention on defense (which in turn makes the defensive failure this year all the more discouraging). FEI had us even worse in special teams, #54. I've never quite gotten to the point in being as comfortable deciphering/relying on advanced special teams metrics as I am with offense and defense, particularly because with offense and defense you can at least triangulate with more conventional stats to see if the advanced metrics pass the smell test. Moreover, offense and defense are relatively simple/singular projects of trying to advance the ball down the field/stop the other team from advancing the ball down the field whereas special teams is not singular but rather refers to a hodgepodge of different tasks involving scoring, flipping field position, tackling, etc. Ultimately I really can't feel like I can vouch for special teams advanced metrics like I can with offense and defense. That leaves me in a position of not wanting to judge our 2023 special teams season. We need more data points.


Heading into the off-season my focus is on roster construction/transformation. We need to sign a large and modestly quality 2024 class, hit 2025 recruiting hard, and retain enough key guys from the current roster to take a step forward next year. Treading water needs to become at least swimming a bit closer to shore. I feel good about the direction we're going on offense with the big caveat that a dicey offensive line pipeline situation raises real questions of what the ceiling can be. I feel really nervous about the defensive situation given the misfire out of the gates in the first year of this regime. Overall, we just have to keep grinding.

We have had so many high profile transfers out:

1) football 2 starting lineman at Michigan and a starting running back at USC
2) men’s basketball 2 starters at North Carolina
3) women’s basketball. Former #1 recruit in whole country now at a top 5 UCLA
4) baseball’s best returning player and future 1st rounder transfers to Texas A&M

We need to stop the bleeding!!!

Given that the CFP has been kryptonite for Harbaugh, anyone want to take Saban and 3 weeks to prepare?

Right here...

Alrighty, it is time for the Stanford football recruiting notes thread for November to drop. A link to the October thread is here. Also, @SamuelMcF put together a list of possible transfer targets. Check that thread out here.

Starting with the 2024 class, the staff is doing all they can to keep the class together while also fortifying it. That's priority number one right now. 4-star linebacker Naki Tuakoi and and 3-star cornerback Khari Reid both decommitted in October. We also learned in October that Stanford is on 3-star inside linebacker Bo Tate out of Draper, Utah who is currently committed to Baylor. Samuel was the one who first posted about Tate and then upon me reaching out to Tate and his family, I learned first hand that their interest in Stanford is strong. They're hoping to get out on a visit later this season. So, hopefully Stanford can get him to visit for either Cal or Notre Dame.

As far as what has led to Reid and Tuakoi decommitting, I know lots of people don't like to speculate and that's totally fine. I haven't received confirmation one way or the other on that. I do know that Stanford has been worried about losing some guys due to the struggles they've had on the field, but I'm not sure that's the reason these guys backed off their pledge. Suffice to say, hopefully the staff going forward has a better feel for academic viability for all their candidates that they evaluate. Chico Holt was a prime example of that in a good sense. They knew he was being looked at by the previous staff, they knew Northwestern was a good school, and when he entered the portal, they were ready to go and were all over him, helping him get his application processed rather quickly. With a new staff at Stanford, I think it's fair to say that there will be some bumps along the way in that respect.

At the moment, Stanford has 25 kids committed for the 2024 class with an overall class rank of 24 in the Rivals team rankings. If the class holds as is, that's still a pretty strong class. Couple guys who I think they are most worried about possibly flipping are 4-star OT Justin Tauanuu and 3-star OL Kahlil House. Tauanuu visited USC lately while House visited Auburn. Those are two guys the staff has to make sure are locked in. Especially since offensive line is such an important area for them to address. More about Tauanuu's interest in USC here.

At the same time, lots of guys seem super dialed in. Elijah Brown, Benedict Umeh, Dylan Stephenson, Brandon Nicholson, Chase Farrell, and others. So, there's still a lot to fired up about with this class. Just gotta get across that finish line with a couple of guys and then maybe flip a couple other guys along the way just like they did with 3-star Benjamin Blackburn, who was previously committed to Boston College. One guy who they are trying to flip is 3-star safety/Minnesota commit Zahir Rainer. I'm not really feeling that one, but still good to know they are trying. Another is 2024 3-star offensive lineman Joshua Raymond, who is currently committed to Vanderbilt.

Wrapping up 2024, the staff is certainly going to be hoping to add some guys through the transfer portal as well. So do make sure to read Samuel McF's breakdown if you haven't already done so. They're also preparing for the possibility that some guys transfer out, so just in general, the portal is going to be something that will keep them busy once that opens up.

Moving on to 2025, 3-star tight end Logan Brooking included Stanford in his top eight along with Penn State, Miami (FL), Clemson, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, and Michigan. I posted that the end of the October recruiting notes thread, but he made the announcement at the very beginning of this month. He visited in September and is one who obviously is giving Stanford good consideration.

4-star quarterback Bear Bachmeier is atop the list of guys they are targeting. He just visited for the Washington game and also was in Hawaii for that game as well. As I said in the October thread, he seemed to have a positive experience on his visit. His best friend is on the baseball team, his brother is on the football team, his family is all about the academics, and he's also hoping to see what he can do on the baseball side this spring. Bottom line is Stanford appears to be the front runner to land Bear Bachmeier. Hence my FutureCast. Notre Dame was the consensus front runner for a bit, but after they took Deuce Knight, that changed things. Bear has three visits to campus already listed on his profile: March, April, and now October all this year. That's solid.

As far as other guys to watch for in the 2025 class, anybody who they've gotten on campus recently you can bet is a serious target. Full list of that is here. Couple names that pop out are 3-star defensive end Adam Shovlin, offensive lineman Joshua Williams, 3-star dual threat quarterback Jaylen Johnson, 3-star tight end Zach Giuliano, and 3-star offensive lineman Peter Langi. One name who they haven't yet gotten to come to a game is 4-star offensive tackle Josh Petty. No other school has him down for a visit in our database besides the July visit to Stanford, which is strange. But, he's a name to keep an eye on as a possible visitor for Cal or Notre Dame. I would imagine they'll be looking to get a good group out for both of those games. 4-star wide receiver Vernal Brown III was recently offered, so that's another name to watch as a possible visitor down the stretch.

Stanford also has three guys already committed for 2025 in 3-star offensive lineman Siosiua Vete, 3-star linebacker Maxwell Richardson, and 3-star offensive lineman Charlie Hoitink. Stanford currently has the 17th best class in 2025 already just by having those three guys committed.

Moving on to 2026, things are still in early stages there. The offers list is here while the visits list is here. Really not any major visitors from 2026 guys. Probably the most notable is quarterback Michael Mitchell, Jr. out of Riordan in San Francisco. He visited for the Washington game. Doesn't have an offer yet, but has been offered by Cal, Wazzu, San Jose State, Cal, UNLV, Marshall, and Arizona State. So, that's a decent little list so far. I don't really want to dive too deep into 2026 here, but if you need to refresh your memory on any guys, just check the offers and visitors lists.

That's all I have for this month. If anyone has any questions/comments or if I missed anything, comment below!

Read that here.

Read that here.

'Bama beating UGA methinks a good thing... Good that no SEC team goes undefeated.

just now watching the start of Mich-Iowa game, and so far, reinforces consensus view that Michigan should win and get to the CFP 4 pretty easily.... Interesting that though Nugent not entirely 100% he started at Center (but saw he just got hurt/was sitting on the ground being attended to) before Mich kicked the field goal. Also interesting that with Mich stud OT Zinter out injured (injured vs Ohio St last weekend), they haven't put our old right OT/portalled to Mich, Hinton, in. Is Hinton hurt, or now just buried deeper down the depth chart?

Update 1 on Mich: Nugent was back in for that Mich TD after they got the ball back/that great punt return got them inside the Iowa 5. Now 10-0 Wolverines. As someone here already posted , would love to see Mich vs Wash in the Rose Bowl for that 1st CFP weekend. And Harbs kick DeBoer's A$$.

Update 2 on Mich v Iowa:
Iowa punter is Troy Taylor!... looks like we'll be seeing a lot of him tonight.

What a weekend of football, and we still have a slate of Sunday NFL and MNF to go! Never thought I'd see a TD scored by the team defending a Hail Mary pass, but I forgot the Jets do exist! Anyway, this post is focused on college.

I would be completely shocked if Oregon doesn't beat Washington pretty easily. Washington is a good team, but they have too many lapses and are winning too many close games lately, even against teams they are far superior than from a roster talent standpoint.

Alabama has a very good shot at beating Georgia.

Iowa might not score a point against Michigan. There is no reason for anyone to watch that game. There has never been a bigger mismatch in a "championship game" ever.

Florida State got screwed having Washington pass them in the CFP rankings. I thought what they did at Florida was far more impressive than UW needing a B.S. roughing passer call and a last second FG to eke out a win at home over a Cougars team Stanford beat 10-7.

So my conference championships winners: Oregon, Alabama, Texas, Florida State, Michigan

Michigan and Florida State will be the only undefeated teams. Michigan will be the only shoe-in and the CFP committee will have to choose 3 teams from a pool of six 1-loss teams in Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, and Washington, plus an undefeated Florida State from a weaker ACC. It will wish the CFP had already expanded to 12 at this time next week.

The big debate will be Texas vs. Oregon. Here's how that will play out.

Oregon's best OOC opponent: Texas Tech, who they barely beat 38-30, and Texas rolled 57-7.
Texas' best OOC opponent: Alabama, who they beat by 10.
And as Tony Kornheiser likes to say, "it's a TV show" and Texas brings more eyeballs than Oregon.

Texas will be the big beneficiary of Oregon beating Washington, not Oregon.

My CFP if Alabama wins SEC:

1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Florida State (I don't see them losing to Louisville)

My CFP if Georgia wins SEC:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Florida State (I don't see them losing to Louisville)
4. Texas

Jayden Daniels is the Heisman winner in my book. He's just an amazing performer. I hope the fact Bo Nix gets to play in the Pac-12 CG doesn't elevate him, I hate the idea of giving a QB winning the award after he completes playing his 62nd college game.

Read that here.

Torri Huske did not leave Stanford. Taking a gap year. We've had a huge amount of attrition off the WSWIM team.

Login to view embedded media

Seeing many impact players on good teams that should have played for Taylor this year.

Read that here. Clemson later today in the quarterfinals. On the road.

35 teams participating. One of our great wrestlers, Shane Griffith, is a grad transfer at Michigan ranked 3rd and seeded 1 for the tournament. He was the NCAA champ at 165 in 2021 and the tournament MVP. But this isn't about Shane, but about Stanford Freshman, Lorenzo Norman. In the round of 16, Norman pulled off the upset 4-2 and moves to the quarters. Norman wasn’t seeded for the tournament but was rank #3 at 170 as a prep.

Stanfo

Kevin Wilson says Tulsa right now has the best recruiting class its ever had because the Big 12 schools used to sign 25 High School players per year and are now only signing 15, and relying on transfers to make up the balance.

Login to view embedded media
Would like to hear y'all thoughts on this dynamic and how you see Stanford being impacted by it? My initial take is this will benefit Stanford High School recruiting like it has Tulsa. I mean if Notre Dame, and USC are only signing 15 High School players to leave room for transfers, that's probably 3-5 more guys Stanford might get as High School recruits that it wouldn't get without high transfer rate among its peers.

Congrats to the Huskies (9 1/2) underdogs win the final Pac12 championship and trip to the CFP.

Sucks.

Read that here.