SP+ has been updated. As a refresher, SP+ takes returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history and weights them based on their predictiveness to model the college football season. In the season when there are game results to plug in it becomes a tempo- and opponent-adjusted gauge of team quality. Until then it’s a model to try to wrap our heads around the competitive landscape. Here are how ACC teams and Stanford opponents rank heading into the spring (offense, defense, special teams rankings listed parenthetically):
9. Notre Dame (10, 9, 53)
12. Florida State (19, 11, 8)
16. Clemson (15, 20, 66)
21. Miami (17, 38, 3)
24. Louisville (44, 21, 64)
27. SMU (24, 46, 99)
28. NC State (53, 27, 15)
30. Virginia Tech (43, 32, 14)
32. TCU (29, 43, 81)
48. Duke (74, 33, 18)
49. Cal (31, 78, 129)
58. North Carolina (40, 87, 46)
60. Georgia Tech (35, 101, 68)
61. Syracuse (72, 51, 86)
70. Pitt (89, 48, 88)
72. Wake Forest (96, 44, 103)
76. Boston College (67, 79, 84)
81. Virginia (71, 84, 71)
94. Stanford (76, 106, 36)
103. San Jose State (100, 94, 130)
The expectation is we will once again be the worst power team not named Vanderbilt. For reference, this time a year ago SP+ had us 102 (102, 107, 89). By the time spring transfers/attrition worked their way through the system nationally, we were #92 heading into the season. In the real life games in the fall SP+ spat us out #108 (95, 116, 36).
SP+ thinks we will have the 15th best ACC offense (though 11-15 are closely bunched), the dead last defense in the ACC and ahead of only Colorado (#107 so essentially equal) and Vanderbilt among power teams, and the sixth best special teams in the ACC.
Curious what others make of projections for us and our opponents.