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Retrospective (hopefully) on the Haase era

2017

December 20: #69

February 1: #106

Final: #102


2018

December 20: #108

February 1: #100

Final: #87


2019

December 20: #111

February 1: #129

Final: #112


2020

December 20: #50

February 1: #40

Final: #43


2021

December 20: #32

February 1: #45

Final: #57


2022

December 20: #90

February 1: #87

Final: #106


2023

December 20: #66

February 1: #97

Final: #84


2024

December 20: #94

February 1: #90

Final: TBD (currently #92)

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Some observations:

* The median Haase team is #87/#92. In other words, what we are experiencing right now is the smack dab middle norm of Haase basketball.

* The Haase era clearly peaked in 2020-2021. Even then the best he ever did was flirt with top 40.

* The narrative about Haase teams swooning late is overblown. It's happened twice (2021 and 2022) but the even more common occurrence is a midseason collapse (2017, 2019, 2023), though it's distinctly possible that the remainder of this season qualifies it as a late-season collapse. So far it isn't though - like the peak Haase 2020 team, the 2024 team has been very consistent. It's just at a blah level. 2018 is the lone example of steady improvement. In any case, the real story here is that the clear trend - 5-6 of the eight seasons depending on how this season ends - is teams collapsing at some point. It may often be earlier in the season than many of our fans perceive, but it's collapse nonetheless.

JHMG.

Baseball Stanford vs. CSU Fullerton (Sunday Hub)

Firing this up now. I’m on way over to Sunken. Just as a heads up:

I’m giving a talk in church today. I agreed to do it thinking the game wouldn’t start until 1:00 PM. Church starts at 12:30. Today’s game starts at 11:00. It was pushed back two hours yesterday due to weather.

What I’m gonna do is try to catch the first part of the game, head over to give my church talk, and then come back to catch the end of the game. Should be interesting!

SP+ winter rankings now out

SP+ has been updated. As a refresher, SP+ takes returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history and weights them based on their predictiveness to model the college football season. In the season when there are game results to plug in it becomes a tempo- and opponent-adjusted gauge of team quality. Until then it’s a model to try to wrap our heads around the competitive landscape. Here are how ACC teams and Stanford opponents rank heading into the spring (offense, defense, special teams rankings listed parenthetically):

9. Notre Dame (10, 9, 53)
12. Florida State (19, 11, 8)
16. Clemson (15, 20, 66)
21. Miami (17, 38, 3)
24. Louisville (44, 21, 64)
27. SMU (24, 46, 99)
28. NC State (53, 27, 15)
30. Virginia Tech (43, 32, 14)
32. TCU (29, 43, 81)
48. Duke (74, 33, 18)
49. Cal (31, 78, 129)
58. North Carolina (40, 87, 46)
60. Georgia Tech (35, 101, 68)
61. Syracuse (72, 51, 86)
70. Pitt (89, 48, 88)
72. Wake Forest (96, 44, 103)
76. Boston College (67, 79, 84)
81. Virginia (71, 84, 71)
94. Stanford (76, 106, 36)
103. San Jose State (100, 94, 130)

The expectation is we will once again be the worst power team not named Vanderbilt. For reference, this time a year ago SP+ had us 102 (102, 107, 89). By the time spring transfers/attrition worked their way through the system nationally, we were #92 heading into the season. In the real life games in the fall SP+ spat us out #108 (95, 116, 36).

SP+ thinks we will have the 15th best ACC offense (though 11-15 are closely bunched), the dead last defense in the ACC and ahead of only Colorado (#107 so essentially equal) and Vanderbilt among power teams, and the sixth best special teams in the ACC.

Curious what others make of projections for us and our opponents.

Baseball Stanford to play doubleheader on Friday to open season

Stanford’s opening series against Fullerton this weekend will begin with a doubleheader on Friday followed by a game on Saturday or Sunday pending on the weather. Game 1 on Friday will begin at Noon. Game 2 will begin after. Likely 45 minutes or so afterwards. This will be at Sunken Diamond.

My schedule breakdown and series preview still to come.
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