Picking a good Power Six turnaround artist
- By msqueri
- The Farm Report
- 34 Replies
I wanted to know what it's looked like the past few decades when somebody has taken a high major program out of irrelevance. My approach is to look at all coaches in the last quarter century who inherited a 5+ year NCAA tournament drought and then took their new team to at least two tournament appearances. That is excellent success we can aspire to. Here's the data set:
Proven Top Coaches (or even Living Legends)
Bob Knight (Texas Tech) - inherited five year drought and only two tournaments in the prior 15 years, immediately went to the tournament and had four tournament appearances in seven years including a Sweet Sixteen; 35 years of prior head coaching experience including a legendary 24 tournaments, three national championships, and much more
Jamie Dixon (TCU) - inherited 18 year drought (and only one tournament in 29 years), immediately won 24 games and was in the tournament his second year, making the tournament three times in seven years; 13 years of prior high major head coaching experience including an incredible 11 tournament appearances including an Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens
Bruce Pearl (Auburn) - inherited 11 year drought, made tournament in his fourth year and then three times in the next five (and will make again this year); 19 years of prior head coaching experience, including taking Milwaukee to two tournaments including a Sweet Sixteen and Tennessee to six tournaments including an Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens [Pearl at Tennessee an edge case as he had spectacular success coming off a four year drought]
Buzz Williams (Virginia Tech) - inherited eight year drought, after a transitional year went to the NIT and then three straight tournaments including a Sweet Sixteen; seven years of prior head coaching experience taking Marquette to five tournaments in six years including an Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens
Steve Lavin (St. John's) - inherited eight year drought, got to the second round of the tournament his first year and made it twice in five years with two more NIT appearances; seven years of prior high major head coaching experience including taking UCLA to an incredible run of an Elite Eight and four other Sweet Sixteens in a six year stretch
John Beilein (Michigan) - inherited nine year drought (albeit Amaker dominating the NIT), after a transitional year made the tournament's second round and an incredible nine in 11 years including two national runners-up, an Elite Eight, and two Sweet Sixteens; 25 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Canisius, Richmond, and West Virginia to the tournament and West Virginia to an Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen [Beilein at West Virginia was one of the edge cases for turnaround artist as they had had a four year drought, but ultimately I felt five years removed from a Sweet Sixteen is not the type of turnaround we are talking about....very close call though, that and Leonard Hamilton may have been the closest calls]
Jim O'Brien (Ohio State) - inherited five year drought (but immediately prior to that were NIT, Elite Eight, and Sweet Sixteen teams, so not comparable to us), after a transitional year went to the Final Four in his second year and went to four tournaments in a row; 14 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Boston College to three tournaments in four years, including an Elite Eight
Mid-Major Successes
Oliver Purnell (Clemson) - inherited five year drought, after one transitional year went to NIT three years in a row and then tournament three years in a row; 15 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Dayton to the tournament two of the previous four years
Mike Brey (Notre Dame) - inherited ten year drought (although also the immediate reigning NIT runner-up), immediately went to three tournaments including two second round and a Sweet Sixteen and 13 tournaments in 22 years; five years of prior head coaching experience including taking Delaware to two of the previous three tournaments
Ben Howland (Pitt) - inherited six year drought, after a transitional year went to the NIT and then two straight Sweet Sixteens; five years of prior head coaching experience including taking Northern Arizona to the tournament and the NIT in two of the previous three years
Ed Cooley (Providence) - inherited seven year drought, got to the tournament his third year and made it seven times in 12 years including a Sweet Sixteen; five years of prior head coaching experience including taking Fairfield to an NIT
Fran McCaffery (Iowa) - inherited four year drought, after a transitional year got to the NIT two consecutive years and then three straight tournaments with seven in nine years; 14 years of prior head coaching experience including the amazing feats of taking Lehigh, UNC Greensboro, and Siena to the tournament and taking Siena three straight years
Steve Pikiell (Rutgers) - inherited 25 year drought, made it to the tournament in his fourth chance (fifth season due to COVID) and then again the next year; 12 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Stonybrook to the tournament after making them an NIT/CBI mainstay
Tad Boyle (Colorado) - inherited 7 year drought, after nearly making the tournament his first year made four of the next five and five of 12 with another likely this year; four years of prior head coaching experience including taking Northern Colorado to the CIT quarterfinal
Wayne Tinkle (Oregon State) - inherited 24 year drought, made tournament in his second year and twice in nine years; eight years of prior head coaching experience, including taking Montana to three tournaments
Billy Gillispie (Texas A&M) - inherited 17 year drought, made NIT quarterfinal his first year and then two straight tournaments including a Sweet Sixteen; two years of prior head coaching experience including taking UTEP to the tournament
Taking a Flyer on a Pedigree Guy
Scott Drew (Baylor) - inherited 15 year drought (in fact only one tournament in 52 years!), got to the tournament in his fifth year and since then has gone to 11 tournaments in 15 years including a national championship, two Elite Eights, and two more Sweet Sixteens; only one year of prior head coaching experience taking Valparaiso to the NIT
Fred Hoiberg (Iowa State) - inherited five year drought, after a transitional year got to the tournament four straight years including a Sweet Sixteen and three second round appearances; zero coaching experience whatsoever of any kind
Frank Martin (Kansas State) - inherited 11 year drought, went to the tournament right away and three times in four years including an Elite Eight; longtime high school and assistant college coach with no college head coaching experience
Chris Collins (Northwestern) - inherited an all of eternity drought (literally, zero appearances ever), made it to the tournament in his fourth year and has made it twice in nine chances (and going to make it again this year....wowza); longtime assistant, mostly at Duke, who had no head coaching experience whatsoever
There is an edge case that doesn't meet my criteria but may be too comparable to what we're looking at not to share:
Seth Greenberg (Virginia Tech) - inherited seven year drought without a tournament or NIT appearance, went to the tournament in his fourth year and the NIT in five of the other seven; 13 years of prior head coaching experience including taking South Florida to the NIT two of the previous years and Long Beach State to two tournaments long prior [This one arguably isn't one to strive for but I do want to be realistic about the scale of our rebuild challenge]
One case that does not qualify for the criteria I've laid out of making multiple tournaments is Kyle Smith (Washington State), who inherited an 11 year drought and now in his fifth season is poised to break the drought.
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As with football, there seems to me to be a big correlation between past success and turnarounds. A slim majority of these had already been to two tournaments. Just over a third had been to the Sweet Sixteen.
Nothing scientific about how I've looked at this, but for what it's worth, among the football turnaround artists I identified, 42 percent were proven power guys, 25 percent were mid-major successes, and 33 percent did not have head coach experience; in basketball, 35 percent were proven power guys, 45 percent were mid-major successes, and 20 percent did not have head coach experience. Nothing scientific about this but my research suggests that all three are viable routes and that basketball tilts more toward mid-major pedigrees and a bit less toward assistants (though assistants have succeeded spectacularly at times).
If TCU can get Dixon I think you have to shoot your shot and make a big offer to Jay Wright. Obviously a long shot but shoot it. Judging from this history there are probably some proven current high major coaches we should have in mind for ambitious shots as well. Chris Collins impresses me. At the mid-major level, guys like Dusty May (Florida Atlantic) and Brian Dutcher (San Diego State) would be grand slams we should fall over ourselves to make happen. Mitch Henderson (Princeton) and Matt Langel (Colgate) are very attractive. How about giving Anthony Grant (Dayton, formerly Alabama and VCU) or Steve Alford (New Mexico, UCLA, Nevada) a shot at a power conference again?
Kyle Smith and Mark Madsen would be in my top ten but there are other calls I'd make first.
Let's get to it!
Proven Top Coaches (or even Living Legends)
Bob Knight (Texas Tech) - inherited five year drought and only two tournaments in the prior 15 years, immediately went to the tournament and had four tournament appearances in seven years including a Sweet Sixteen; 35 years of prior head coaching experience including a legendary 24 tournaments, three national championships, and much more
Jamie Dixon (TCU) - inherited 18 year drought (and only one tournament in 29 years), immediately won 24 games and was in the tournament his second year, making the tournament three times in seven years; 13 years of prior high major head coaching experience including an incredible 11 tournament appearances including an Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens
Bruce Pearl (Auburn) - inherited 11 year drought, made tournament in his fourth year and then three times in the next five (and will make again this year); 19 years of prior head coaching experience, including taking Milwaukee to two tournaments including a Sweet Sixteen and Tennessee to six tournaments including an Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens [Pearl at Tennessee an edge case as he had spectacular success coming off a four year drought]
Buzz Williams (Virginia Tech) - inherited eight year drought, after a transitional year went to the NIT and then three straight tournaments including a Sweet Sixteen; seven years of prior head coaching experience taking Marquette to five tournaments in six years including an Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteens
Steve Lavin (St. John's) - inherited eight year drought, got to the second round of the tournament his first year and made it twice in five years with two more NIT appearances; seven years of prior high major head coaching experience including taking UCLA to an incredible run of an Elite Eight and four other Sweet Sixteens in a six year stretch
John Beilein (Michigan) - inherited nine year drought (albeit Amaker dominating the NIT), after a transitional year made the tournament's second round and an incredible nine in 11 years including two national runners-up, an Elite Eight, and two Sweet Sixteens; 25 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Canisius, Richmond, and West Virginia to the tournament and West Virginia to an Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen [Beilein at West Virginia was one of the edge cases for turnaround artist as they had had a four year drought, but ultimately I felt five years removed from a Sweet Sixteen is not the type of turnaround we are talking about....very close call though, that and Leonard Hamilton may have been the closest calls]
Jim O'Brien (Ohio State) - inherited five year drought (but immediately prior to that were NIT, Elite Eight, and Sweet Sixteen teams, so not comparable to us), after a transitional year went to the Final Four in his second year and went to four tournaments in a row; 14 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Boston College to three tournaments in four years, including an Elite Eight
Mid-Major Successes
Oliver Purnell (Clemson) - inherited five year drought, after one transitional year went to NIT three years in a row and then tournament three years in a row; 15 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Dayton to the tournament two of the previous four years
Mike Brey (Notre Dame) - inherited ten year drought (although also the immediate reigning NIT runner-up), immediately went to three tournaments including two second round and a Sweet Sixteen and 13 tournaments in 22 years; five years of prior head coaching experience including taking Delaware to two of the previous three tournaments
Ben Howland (Pitt) - inherited six year drought, after a transitional year went to the NIT and then two straight Sweet Sixteens; five years of prior head coaching experience including taking Northern Arizona to the tournament and the NIT in two of the previous three years
Ed Cooley (Providence) - inherited seven year drought, got to the tournament his third year and made it seven times in 12 years including a Sweet Sixteen; five years of prior head coaching experience including taking Fairfield to an NIT
Fran McCaffery (Iowa) - inherited four year drought, after a transitional year got to the NIT two consecutive years and then three straight tournaments with seven in nine years; 14 years of prior head coaching experience including the amazing feats of taking Lehigh, UNC Greensboro, and Siena to the tournament and taking Siena three straight years
Steve Pikiell (Rutgers) - inherited 25 year drought, made it to the tournament in his fourth chance (fifth season due to COVID) and then again the next year; 12 years of prior head coaching experience including taking Stonybrook to the tournament after making them an NIT/CBI mainstay
Tad Boyle (Colorado) - inherited 7 year drought, after nearly making the tournament his first year made four of the next five and five of 12 with another likely this year; four years of prior head coaching experience including taking Northern Colorado to the CIT quarterfinal
Wayne Tinkle (Oregon State) - inherited 24 year drought, made tournament in his second year and twice in nine years; eight years of prior head coaching experience, including taking Montana to three tournaments
Billy Gillispie (Texas A&M) - inherited 17 year drought, made NIT quarterfinal his first year and then two straight tournaments including a Sweet Sixteen; two years of prior head coaching experience including taking UTEP to the tournament
Taking a Flyer on a Pedigree Guy
Scott Drew (Baylor) - inherited 15 year drought (in fact only one tournament in 52 years!), got to the tournament in his fifth year and since then has gone to 11 tournaments in 15 years including a national championship, two Elite Eights, and two more Sweet Sixteens; only one year of prior head coaching experience taking Valparaiso to the NIT
Fred Hoiberg (Iowa State) - inherited five year drought, after a transitional year got to the tournament four straight years including a Sweet Sixteen and three second round appearances; zero coaching experience whatsoever of any kind
Frank Martin (Kansas State) - inherited 11 year drought, went to the tournament right away and three times in four years including an Elite Eight; longtime high school and assistant college coach with no college head coaching experience
Chris Collins (Northwestern) - inherited an all of eternity drought (literally, zero appearances ever), made it to the tournament in his fourth year and has made it twice in nine chances (and going to make it again this year....wowza); longtime assistant, mostly at Duke, who had no head coaching experience whatsoever
There is an edge case that doesn't meet my criteria but may be too comparable to what we're looking at not to share:
Seth Greenberg (Virginia Tech) - inherited seven year drought without a tournament or NIT appearance, went to the tournament in his fourth year and the NIT in five of the other seven; 13 years of prior head coaching experience including taking South Florida to the NIT two of the previous years and Long Beach State to two tournaments long prior [This one arguably isn't one to strive for but I do want to be realistic about the scale of our rebuild challenge]
One case that does not qualify for the criteria I've laid out of making multiple tournaments is Kyle Smith (Washington State), who inherited an 11 year drought and now in his fifth season is poised to break the drought.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As with football, there seems to me to be a big correlation between past success and turnarounds. A slim majority of these had already been to two tournaments. Just over a third had been to the Sweet Sixteen.
Nothing scientific about how I've looked at this, but for what it's worth, among the football turnaround artists I identified, 42 percent were proven power guys, 25 percent were mid-major successes, and 33 percent did not have head coach experience; in basketball, 35 percent were proven power guys, 45 percent were mid-major successes, and 20 percent did not have head coach experience. Nothing scientific about this but my research suggests that all three are viable routes and that basketball tilts more toward mid-major pedigrees and a bit less toward assistants (though assistants have succeeded spectacularly at times).
If TCU can get Dixon I think you have to shoot your shot and make a big offer to Jay Wright. Obviously a long shot but shoot it. Judging from this history there are probably some proven current high major coaches we should have in mind for ambitious shots as well. Chris Collins impresses me. At the mid-major level, guys like Dusty May (Florida Atlantic) and Brian Dutcher (San Diego State) would be grand slams we should fall over ourselves to make happen. Mitch Henderson (Princeton) and Matt Langel (Colgate) are very attractive. How about giving Anthony Grant (Dayton, formerly Alabama and VCU) or Steve Alford (New Mexico, UCLA, Nevada) a shot at a power conference again?
Kyle Smith and Mark Madsen would be in my top ten but there are other calls I'd make first.
Let's get to it!
