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This guy may not be Stewart Mandel or Brett McMurphy but he's been relatively spot-on in terms of conference realignment (primarily as it relates to the Big 12). According to his sources, there are two very important meetings taking place tonight to discuss (and possibly vote on) ACC expansion.
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This may come as a surprise to some of you as reports have surfaced in recent days that ACC expansion had hit significant roadblocks. Some, like Clemson's beat reporter, Larry Williams, have even gone so far as to declare ACC expansion talks dead. However, the ACC has continued to deliberate the matter and no official expansion vote has been held to this point. Until that vote takes place, the issue is far from decided.
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There is reason to believe that the vote has not been held as of yet because the conference has been unable to generate the 3/4 consensus that is required in order to approve expansion. Some have suspected the holdouts on expansion are believed to be Florida State, Clemson, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech. Others believe it's Florida State, Clemson, NC State and North Carolina. But there is speculation that NC State has already flipped and Virginia Tech/North Carolina may be on the verge of flipping as well. If that were the case, then the ACC would have the 12 votes they needed to approve Cal & Stanford for membership.
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Keep in mind, this MHver3 individual is not sure which direction the ACC will go on expansion and has stopped short of making any definitive statements that ACC expansion is a foregone conclusion. But he does feel strongly that SMU's candidacy has already been ruled out (per Wednesday night's meeting) and it's now down to Cal & Stanford.
I'm also of the belief that there are too many moving parts right now to properly gauge the chances that Cal & Stanford are approved for membership. But there are a few things we can summarily deduce based on the developments from this last week. For one thing, there is immense pressure for the ACC to add Cal & Stanford. The expansion moves made by the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 have created an insecurity within the ACC that standing pat and doing nothing is simply unacceptable. I believe this "eat or be eaten" mentality has taken hold of many members within the ACC, creating a sense of urgency that has compelled the conference to consider something as otherwise illogical as adding two California-based schools. Additionally, Notre Dame has emerged to become the ring leader of these expansion talks, with an invested interest in keeping Stanford on their schedule and helping them find a safe landing spot. Last but not least, ESPN has a great deal of investment in the matter as well, seeing this as an opportunity to recoup the West Coast presence they lost when FOX scooped up USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington. Add that up and that's a lot of factors working in our favor.
All of this to say that while ACC expansion is far from decided, it also far from over. Conference expansion is a very delicate matter that requires extensive time and due diligence in order to reach a proper resolution. Just look at the Big Ten, which held
multiple meetings over
multiple days before ultimately deciding to add Oregon & Washington. What we are witnessing play out with the ACC is no different in that regard. The only surprise, really, has been the amount of journalists/insiders that have been so quick to proclaim these expansion talks as "losing momentum" or "dead". When you consider all the hurdles the Big Ten experienced in it's deliberations to add Oregon & Washington (including internal disagreement amongst it's member institutions), it's astounding that so many in the media could have such a myopic view on the ACC's respective situation. Especially when you consider that, at worst, 10 of the 15 ACC members fully support adding Cal & Stanford. All that to say, something's amiss as far as what's being peddled to the public and what's really going on behind closed doors in these expansion talks. And I, for one, wouldn't be the least bit surprised if all of this negative/posthumous PR that's circulated in recent days wasn't a tactical maneuver by the holdout schools (FSU & Clemson) to create a sense of discord on the matter.
Conspiracy theories aside, the meetings that take place tonight will be integral in determining the future of Stanford football. If the pro-expansion lobby finds a way to flip NC State/North Carolina/Virginia Tech then Cal & Stanford will finally have that life raft they've so desperately sought since the Pac-12 collapsed. It may not be the most ideal landing spot (and I'd be surprised surprised if the distribution figures constituted a significant upgrade from the $20.8M we received in 2022) but it would at least provide us with a respectable conference to park our football & basketball programs for the near-to-long term future. I say near term because in the event that Florida State & Clemson break free of the ACC's Grant of Rights agreement, we would likely find ourselves in the exact same predicament all over again.
Nevertheless, there's a lot to this story that's yet to play out and tonight's meeting could be the inflection point.
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**UPDATE**
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Just in the time it took me to post this thread, there have already been a handful of tweets pop up on the social media proclaiming that Cal & Stanford are one vote short of getting approval for ACC membership. Yet again, these tweets are being framed with a pessimistic lens that implies the ACC is not likely to approve expansion. Two things to keep in mind:
1.) This latest news drop is nothing new. As you can see from Nicole Auerbach's tweet, it's merely a clarification of which schools were opposed to expansion as of
Wednesday night. Once again, I can't help but find the timing of this negatively-tinged PR drop (i.e. - ahead of tonight's ACC meeting) more than just a tad coincidental...
2.) If these latest tweets are to be trusted, that means the opposition to expansion has shrunk from five schools down to four. Meaning the ACC is one flipped vote away from adding Cal & Stanford. Just to reiterate:
* 11 out of 15 schools wants it
* ESPN wants it
* Notre Dame
really wants it
* The ACC keeps holding more meetings over it instead of accepting the matter and moving on
And yet we're all supposed to believe ACC expansion is losing momentum/dead/never happening?
Methinks not.
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