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Basketball Recruiting WBB recruiting notes: August

The Stanford women's basketball recruiting notes thread for August is here. The June/July thread is here in case you missed anything from that.

Re-posting from the previous thread to make it front and center:

The following 2024 kids are still in play. The last three names of which are new to the list (at least for me): 4-star wing Harper Peterson, 5-star post Kate Koval, 4-star point guard Shay Ijiwoye, 4-star guard Jordan Lee, 4-star guard Tajianna Avant-Roberts, 5-star forward Joyce Edwards, 5-star guard Mikayla Blakes, 4-star forward Kennedy Umeh, 5-star guard Kayleigh Heckel, and 4-star guard Avery Howell.

So, that's a really solid list of players. It's just a matter of them closing the deal with some of them. I'm confident that they will. Even with some of the issues we saw at the end of last season, this is still one of the most well-respected programs in the nation. Top five easily.

As for scholarship count, the following players are projected to be gone after this season: Cameron Brink and Hannah Jump. Both are expected to be in the WNBA next season. Brink will be a first round pick. We'll just have to see where Jump ends up.

Incoming players are Nunu Agara, Courtney Ogden, and Chloe Clardy. All freshmen. With 15 scholarships available per season and not 13, Stanford will have six open scholarships for the following season, so they have plenty of room to add people. This is why they generally have an approach of just taking whoever wants to commit among the pool that they are recruiting. Not having enough space is never a concern.

As for Hailee Swain, the lone 2025 commit, ESPNW has rated her as a 5-star. That just came out. So, it looks like they have a real one in her. That's very encouraging to see. And she's all in on the Cardinal. Her dad is pumped about it and is doing a great job of developing her. Lots to be excited about with Hailee. Just have to wait a couple more years to see her on the court at Maples.

So, that's where things sit with the women's basketball recruiting side of things. I think landing a post would be huge since Brink is departing and Betts transferred out, so that kinda makes Koval the top target in my book. And then I did interview Ijiwoye about her visit. She seems to be liking Stanford a lot. So, I think they have a real chance with her.

Taylor Press Conference/Arizona

I continue to be dismayed and disappointed by the lack of more nuanced probing in the questioning of Taylor. I understand that we aren’t dealing with a broader media coverage of these PC’s; and, therefore, the regulars at these PC’s are apparently being more gentle in their questioning so as to not create angst that impacts their access. But c’mon…despite having a Player of the Week honors player in the Hawaii game, which was followed by a disappearing act in game #2 and a non-appearance in the first half of game #3, there wasn’t a single question to try and glean what’s going on there. Also, many of us on this site have been questioning whether Patu should get a shot at playing. Yet there was no question about that possibility. And in terms of the current QB situation, Taylor did say that he plans to use both Daniels and Lamson going forward. But there were no follow-up questions to dig deeper as to what that means. Who will start this week? How will he decide who starts? Will the timing of switching QB’s be situational or based on performance? Will he stay with the one with the ”hot hand?” Etc. I just think that the questions are so vanilla and the answers mostly predictable. Lastly, I did observe that Taylor wore a Stanford hat and shirt at this PC, as opposed to a generic Nike hat and shirt that he has worn several times previously. In fact, at the beginning of the PC, he grabbed at his hat, almost as if to draw attention to the fact he what he was wearing was Stanford. Just my speculation, but I did mention this issue to a few people; so maybe the message got to him.

Statistics

I'm still confounded that I received a BA from Stanford without ever taking a statistics course.

I fixed that deficiency by going to the Stanford Business School but of course most of my classmates did not.

Correlation is not causation. Profound notion that we all need to understand.

Back to your regular programming.

David Shaw on Ryen Russillo podcast


Puts the blame of the breakup of the Pac-12 on the 12 University Presidents. Thinks they should write an apology letter.

Puts the blame of the decline of the program on the University President and Provost. Which I agree with, but he also needs some of the blame.

Also dives a bit into his decision to retire when he did: that it just felt like the right time for a new person to come in and lead a turn around.

Says he’d definitely not take another college job, and thinks his next job will be in the NFL.

Roster Arrows Re: Fisher Anderson

I received a message from @BBKIA about a couple of different things and one of them was he thought he saw Fisher Anderson out on the field. So I did find out that he played six naps for Leyrer. I don’t have access to watching it back anymore so I don’t know when the snaps happened. But my apologies for missing it.
It really bugs me - I hate making mistakes like that.

Football Recruiting Tuesdays with Gorney: Five thoughts on the top 2025 QBs

Read that here. Gorney discusses where things sit with 2025 4-star QB Bear Bachmeier, Tiger's younger brother. Also, Tyler James in our network just flipped his FutureCast from Notre Dame to Stanford after Notre Dame landed Deuce Knight, one of the top QBs in the 2025 class. If he doesn't think Bachmeier is going to Notre Dame, then Stanford really does seem like the most likely landing spot for him. That's why I followed suit and put a FutureCast in for Bachmeier to Stanford as well.


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ROSTER ARROWS VS SAC ST

ARROWS WERE FLYING EVERYWHERE

ARROW UP

0 Bernadel - Out there for almost every snap. Guy plays hard with some passion. It's evident though his value lies in helping change the culture more than his play on the field. He is more of a guy you want as a backup for a dozen plays per game.
0 Reuben - Much more involved this week with Humphreys out.
2 Filkins - Led the RB's in snaps by a bunch.
3 Farrell - Led the team in targets. Had 15ft on the nearest DB but Lamson missed him. Also had a bizarre fair catch signal on a KO.
4 Manley - He hasn't been perfect but it's not like you can say 'let's go after this guy' either. Has played comparable to Wright on the other side.
6 Wright - Continues to play OK. INT landed in his lap. Out there for every snap.
8 Lamson - Got the call to start the 2H. Scoreboard changing miss over Farrell. Awful decision on the INT. Saw a couple ghosts in the pocket. Made some decent plays as well. It would be nice to see him after a week of practices with the 1's
8 Sinclair - Still out there starting next to Bernadel. Would definitely better serve a roster as a backup.
11 Tafiti - Gets the surprise and welcomed start for Bailey. Leaps right over the unproductive Aybar. There is so much to like here - first, Bailey was benched. Second, Tafiti passed Aybar. Third, Tafiti looks much better moving around than he did just 2 weeks ago in Hawaii.
13 Ayomanor - Led the receivers in snaps and receptions. Bailed Daniels out on the hot air balloon.
15 Butler - Still in the game plan
21 Edwards - Played every snap out there at free safety. Not a bad game but needs to clean up the tackling.
22 Smith - Led the team in rushing. Doesn't look too bad TBH.
24 Bachmeier - Still out there for a bunch of snaps but only a couple of targets. BTW, walking around outside pregame and inside the stadium there were a lot of family and friends with 24 jerseys. They are all about Stanford. Arrow up for Bear!
32 Leigber - April decided to play 3 DL out there for the first time this year. When he went to nickel, Leigber was his guy from start to finish.
33 Gilman - SS played every snap.
40 Phillips - Out there for an insane amount of snaps for a DL. Damn good game would have been a great game but missed a couple tackles.
51 Moi - Increased snap count benefitting from April's decision to play more 'base'. Basically the 3rd starter on the DL. Was solid.
55 Pale - Started and played every snap as did all of the starters. Player gives a good effort but just unfair for him to be out there when he should be redshirting.
57 Rogers - This game is giving me serious doubts if this is a serviceable player or not.
61 Mayberry - Probably going to see a change at one of the OG positions. Wouldn't be fair to the team if they don't try something else.
71 McLaughlin - Continues to be the best player on the OL. Ideally he would be your swing tackle (or OT3) on a good team but this isn't close to a good team.
76 Leyrer - Im definitely not his biggest fan. But again, all of these guys should be backups in fairness.
84 Yurosek - Only 2 targets and ZERO receptions. Sorry but you have to force feed the ball to your best player especially with Humphreys out.
85 Taylor - Saw his snap count double as CTT incorporated 13 personnel into the Sac St game plan.
86 Roush - TE2 is a glorified OL
92 Keneley - Led the position group in snaps.
94 Franklin - Had a very good game as did all of the DL. This group is very likable.

ARROW DOWN

9 Armitage - No change in status for the 3rd yr DL. If you are going to breakthrough in this position group you better have a big motor.
10 Jorgensen - Still not getting more than a handful of snaps in a bad position group.
11 Patu - Maybe his opportunity is coming?
14 Aybar - Big decrease in snaps with an opportunity to start in sight only to be passed up by Tafiti.
14 Daniels - First time seeing the player in person. Can't say I liked what I saw. I can promise you it stung CTT a lot that he called a well-timed and even better executed surprise onside kick only to have Daniels follow with the pick in the end zone. And the other thing is he is kind of a plodding runner. You see QB's all over the country who run more like a receiver. Our guy runs more like a TE. So it's not like you are going to make up for the void in passing with explosive runs. I dunno man.
19 Silas - Still no role for the veteran receiver.
20 Slocum - Biggest falloff on the roster in WK 3. Did not see the field after being NB1 post-Wyrick injury.
23 Bailey - Good for April as message was sent and the player didn't see the field in the 1Q. Kind of a weird scene during pregame. Every player in the OLB position group was going through their drills with their position coach with the exception of Bailey who was stretching about 20 yards away from the group. This thing could go either way.
26 Irvin - Frosh RB did not see the field.
27 Porter - Nothing for the DB after a bunch of snaps vs SC
29 Williams - See Porter
35 Rose - See Jorgesen
44 Cooper - Didn't see the field.
57 Lytle - Nothing for the Wiscy transfer
58 Bank - Nothing for the Harvard transfer
67 Anderson - 2nd year OT was splitting time at LT in first 2 games but did not get a snap in GM 3
72 Uke - Didn't see the field after playing time last week vs SC
74 Pogorelc - See Anderson
82 Raines - Only 1 snap in GM 3
88 Hawkins - Dressed but DNP
89 Ungar - Stuck behind Taylor
98 Buckey - Snaps cut in half from first 2 games even though snaps for the position group increased.

Just Cause Your Car Has a Fart Pipe Doesn't Make it Fast

We lost tonight, Neon Deion also is on upset alert / has lost already by making it a competitive game with Cal St. He may just prove that he's mostly bark and little bite. The blowback on that much bark can be pretty significant.

So to those who have decided that the sky is falling, Taylor was a huge mistake, or we whiffed massively by not getting Deion, I say: chill. Time will tell. We just don't have enough samples to tell our head from our ass. Try to enjoy the football season some.

Football Arizona, Oregon, and Colorado kickoff times announced

The kickoff times for the home games against Arizona and Oregon along with the road game at Colorado have been announced.

Saturday, September 23rd at home against Arizona will kickoff at 4:00 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks & KNBR 1050 radio.

Saturday, September 30th at home against Oregon will kickoff at 3:30 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks & KNBR 1050 radio.

Friday, October 13th on the road at Colorado will kickoff at 7:00 PM PT on ESPN & KNBR 1050 radio.

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Sunday morning thoughts - Sacramento State

1. It's impossible not to view a loss to an FCS team as a low point. This shouldn't happen to Power Five teams. We now join Northwestern, Kansas, Washington State, Iowa State (four times this century and six overall!), Virginia, Oregon State, Colorado, Duke, Minnesota, and Rutgers as the only Power Five schools to have multiple losses to FCS schools this century. That's a bad list to be on. On the other hand, there was a real we are who we thought we were vibe to last night that makes it less painful. This isn't like 2005 to UC Davis when it was a massive shock and ultimately kept us from breaking a multi-year bowl-less streak. This is a close loss to a team computers thought would be a tossup and will ultimately deprive us of a winnable game in a year that will end up with one, two, or three wins. It does not register very high either on the surprise meter or the stakes meter. That we can lose to an FCS team without it being shocking or too damaging is yet another sign of how low we've fallen. It's so low that I'm starting to have more doubts Taylor is capable of digging out of it, but we can't give up yet. Our theory of the case was always that we hired a culture builder who could engineer a steady (and quite possibly slow) rebuild and we just saw the culture he developed the last four years out-play the one he inherited. It doesn't fundamentally change the diagnosis of our challenge or the hope for what Taylor can bring. It was another miserable night of football, though, and it's an open question how many years of those will be too much for the program to recover.

2. There were a lot of plays that could have gone differently and swung the outcome - the two interceptions, Wright's knee being called down on the pick six and that play not being challenged (or if it was officially reviewed being an awfully quick review), the broken play game winner from Bennett to Fulcher, the bogus roughing the passer penalty on Bernadel - but to be honest Sacramento State persevered through just as many plays one could say that about. Fundamentally this felt like evenly matched teams where the difference was sacks. Six to zero in that category is hard to overcome. In particular, Jett Stanley was the difference and he ate our interior line alive (by the way, recall that the day we hired Taylor I highlighted Stanley as the only Sacramento State player I viewed as an attractive and realistic transfer target for us....oh well). The story of this game was our inability to prevent negative plays in pass protection or to generate negative plays for the Hornets via our pass rush. This is super depressing to me. Strength up front should always be the differentiator between FBS and FCS and there was no reason heading in to think Sacramento State was particularly strong in the trenches. PFF has us #131 (of 133) in pass blocking and #93 in pass rush (such a bitter disappointment given the hype for the OLBs and the April scheme). It's hard to see how we give ourselves much of a shot at all against Pac-12 teams with that being the case.

3. There was more to like on offense than on defense in this one. Sac State had played two FCS bottom feeders (winless Nicholls State and winless Texas A&M-Commerce) and ended up getting more yards per play against us than they came in averaging or than Taylor's Sacramento State teams ever averaged in a season. What.The.Hell. The Bobby April defense is a gigantic disappointment so far. PFF has the offense #99 and defense #120. On offense we are #77 in yards per play and #97 in scoring offense and on defense we're #126 in yards per play allowed and #123 in scoring defense. I would not be surprised if advanced metrics like FEI and SP+ start to reflect this as well. The defense is an abject disaster so far. Last night the defense forced one punt. The pass defense did worse than #215 Texas A&M-Commerce. The run defense gave up almost a yard more per carry than #183 Nicholls State. Kaiden Bennett is an elite FCS player but we shouldn't be making him look like Caleb Williams. The defense has a lot of explaining to do.

4. The offense wasn't good enough either but it was a lot better than the defense. Sacramento State has a vaunted FCS defense (more so than the offense this year in all likelihood) and we ended up getting 5.9 yards per play, over a yard per play better than they've allowed on average against their lowly first two opponents. It was the best our offense has done yet this season on a yards per play basis and Sac State has a better defense than Hawaii (and is probably closer to USC's defensive quality than many realize). There were things to build off on offense as well as a lot of meat left on the bone. In the run game, our 4.3 yards per carry (even accounting for all the sacks) was the most Sac State has given up, but edging out Texas A&M-Commerce is not cause for celebration and it's the lowest yards per carry we've seen. It's nice that we've been able to run a bit in each game but it's sobering to realize we haven't faced a good major college football run defense yet (USC is #94 in yards per carry allowed). In the pass game, we did well by the standards of the lowly passing games the Hornets have played and had by far our most explosive game yet this season. On the year we have five 30+ yard passing plays and three came last night against a Sac State coverage that has been a defining strength this season and last. Encouraging to see some chunk plays that aren't just relying on Yurosek to bail us out. However, silver linings can't overshadow the dark clouds of the two horrible, game-costing interceptions, nor the inefficacy when not connecting on chunk plays.

5. Along with that inefficacy continues the QB controversy. I fully supported pulling Daniels for Lamson as I think Daniels has consistently looked bad (and especially not comfortable and not good at processing) in his limited action the last two weeks, and the red zone interception was inexcusable. [By the way, we gave Shaw a lot of grief for the predictability of red zone playcalling but to a significant degree it worked, at least a lot better than Shawfense did on the rest of the field. In the years Pritchard had the coordinator title, we were #59, #119, #6, #25, and #35 in red zone touchdown conversion percentage. So far this year we are #116. Something to keep an eye on.] Daniels is not playing well and seeing how Lamson would do against a non-USC opponent made sense to me. Unfortunately, Lamson did terribly too. In Total QBR Lamson was #122 of 124 QBs this week. He was a negative in every single component of Total QBR other than running. Putting this into historical perspective, Lamson's 6.2 Total QBR slots in as the third worst ever recorded by a Stanford QB, a bit better than 2019 Jack West vs. UCLA and 2018 KJ Costello vs. Pitt and a bit worse than 2017 Keller Chryst vs. San Diego State, 2008 Tavita Pritchard vs. TCU, and 2006 TC Ostrander vs. Arizona. Like Daniels, Lamson had a horrible interception. I hope the picks can be teachable moments for both. For Daniels, it looked like we were on our way to a comfortable victory and that mistake turned the tide....hopefully an object lesson that you can't let up on concentration and decision-making even when up multiple scores. For Lamson, hopefully he learns that you can't let desperation to get out of a bad play make the play worse, or let yourself lose composure (recall it happened immediately after he air mailed Farrell on what should have been a touchdown or at least big gain). I will be very interested in Borghi's analysis of QB play. I am inclined to think sacks are a QB stat and Lamson taking five sacks is a black mark, but it was also evident the OL struggled mightily in the second half. I wonder if astute observers can pick up on something worth saving or further exploring in these guys. The QB play through three weeks has been poor enough (among 133 qualifying QBs nationally, Daniels is #90 on the season in Total QBR and Lamson is dead last #133) that I actually want to see Patu. We need to see what Patu looks like against live bullets. If none of these guys turns a corner in the next 4-5 weeks, what we may be on track for is a Jackson try out later in the year after the true freshman gets more settled.
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