1.) Elijah Brown is back. You could arguably just end this list at that. There were those of us that weren't even sure if he'd suit up again before the Louisville game. Not saying he's 100% healthy (nor would I expect him to be given his accelerated return to action). But the fact that he's back on the field already means we get a six game sample size to evaluate his talents instead of just three. Regardless of yesterday's results, that's a win.
2.) Don't be fooled by the final score. 21 of those points were put up by SMU before Brown even took his first snap. Were we thoroughly dominated along both lines of scrimmage? Yes. Was it by far one of our worst performances of the season? Absolutely. And yet... the final margin was only nine if you just go off of points scored by each team once Brown took over. That may mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. But the fact that we looked atrocious by just about every statistical measure and somehow managed keep the Mustangs from pulling away further suggests to me this team may have had a little extra fight in them once Brown was inserted. Yes, it was clunky and it was sloppy but the eyeball test suggested we at least moved the ball up and down the field a bit more efficiently even if the scoreboard didn't reflect it. So while we can largely throw out the results of yesterday's blowout and turn the page to a more promising matchup against Wake Forest, let's not completely disregard the fact that previously invisible guys like Roush and Bachmeier were popping up on the stat sheet and moving the chains for us. Or that Brown actually acquitted himself decently well given the high leverage situations (including first down conversions on 2nd & 19, 3rd & 14, and 2nd & 15).
3.) SMU is one of the 2-3 best teams in the ACC and we will not see another opponent anywhere near their caliber for the rest of the season. Their only blemish was a 3-point loss to undefeated BYU. If they manage to beat Duke and Pittsburgh over these next two weeks, they may not lose again the rest of the way. We're not exactly college football's greatest litmus test these days but the Mustangs definitely passed the eyeball test from a size/speed standpoint. And good for them; they have successfully managed to elevate their program from a G5 afterthought left for dead after the Southwest Conference blew up to a legitimate ACC contender in just a few short years. To Jacob's point, it's remarkable how much money can fast track results in this new NIL/transfer portal era. Without beating a dead horse in terms of what that says about us, let's just give credit where credit's due and congratulate SMU for what they've been able to accomplish. The product on the field certainly speaks for itself.
With the brutal 4-game gauntlet of Clemson/ND/VT/SMU now behind us, that means 4-3 Louisville now stands as our toughest remaining opponent. Don't be fooled, however, as pretty much every remaining opponent, regardless of record, will probably be the betting favorite when they take the field against us. So as much as it pains me to admit this, a fourth consecutive 3-9 season appears to be our likeliest outcome as things currently stand. Having said that, with Brown back in the lineup, everything's on the table. Meaning we have a shot (albeit a slim one) to stack a few wins and carry some momentum into what's already looking like a hugely pivotal offseason for this program. Of our remaining matchups, one stands out in order of importance above all others: San Jose State. It's as close as it gets to an absolute must-win. Not only because it's the last game of the season but if we can't beat a middle-tier Mountain West program to improve to at least a 3-9 record, that would be the first tangible evidence that this program is somehow in a worse place than when Taylor took over. And that would make the already gargantuan-sized hole we're trying to crawl out of feel even more hopeless and insurmountable.
The second most important game is already on deck: Wake Forest. For one thing, we haven't beaten a P5 team at home in over two years (i.e. - we're BEYOND due). But more importantly, we need to stop the bleeding. Four game losing streaks are program killers (just ask David Shaw who presided over four of them) and the warning signs were there early on against SMU that this team might be mailing it in. Lose on Saturday and we're in serious jeopardy of running that losing streak to 8+ games (a dubious distinction that even Shaw managed to avoid). At that point, it would be a virtual lock that Troy Taylor would have permanently lost the locker room, rendering 2025 a lost season before it even got started. Let me be clear: this program simply CANNOT afford to regress or stagnate any further than it already has. So in a sense, this Saturday represents so much more than just one game; it's arguably the biggest inflection point of the Troy Taylor era. Get the W against a very beatable Wake Forest team, we'll eliminate those concerns and give ourselves a chance to build some meaningful momentum against a closing slate of good but flawed opponents. Lose and there's an all-too-real possibility that the Troy Taylor era could end without so much as a single win against a P5 opponent at home. The implications of that are almost too horrific to comprehend so let's just go ahead and move on to the third most important game remaining: Cal.
It's no secret that Big Game has lost its luster over the years but that doesn't diminish the significance of this game for either program. For Stanford, it represents a chance to snap the Big Game losing streak (which currently sits at three) and notch a win against a quality(ish?) opponent. It would arguably go down as the marquee win of Troy Taylor's two year tenure and put Stanford in a favorable position to close out the season on a win streak. It's been said numerous times already but for a program desperate for any signs of life, this would be absolutely enormous. Not to mention, it would crank Justin Wilcox's hotseat index to 10. There are a boatload of Cal fans ready to be rid of Wilcox already (including our very own
@BenParker). Lose Big Game and I'm not sure he's even guaranteed to come back next season. Big Game wins are always important but this year's matchup carries extra weight given the stakes for each head coach. Cal will no doubt be favored (most likely by double digits) but depending on how quickly Brown & the offense gel over the next month, this could very well be the most tightly contested matchup since 2020 (which came down to a blocked extra point).
The Louisville & NC State games feel too implausible to even speculate on so I’ll refrain from dissecting those matchups until we at least demonstrate that we can dispatch of the Wake Forests of the world. I suppose a case could be made that the road win against Syracuse suggests we've overcome greater odds. But the team that went into the JMA Dome was much healthier (boy do we miss Levi Rogers & Clay Patterson) and much hungrier before that four game losing streak sapped our morale. Now Troy Taylor has the unenviable task of restoring hope to a locker room full of young men who have witnessed every year of their Stanford careers end in the same painful fashion. Despite what we've witnessed the past four weeks, this year still has a chance to be different. This year still has the chance to chart a new course and reverse the trajectory of this spiraling program. But it all starts with getting that much needed win on Saturday. For the sake of our players and the mental well-being of our tortured fanbase, I pray that we find a way to win. Because we deserve to have more to talk about on Sunday than more of the same doom & gloom - enough is enough.
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