In another thread I made a wave-top comparison of our 2013/2014 recruiting versus the 2018/2019 recruiting. It might be instructive to compare the two to see where the pipeline stands. This exercise is premature since we don't yet know who will be admitted/matriculate in the 2019 class. I am going to make some aggressive analytical assumptions for the sake of argument but in the narrative for each position will try to account for some of the uncertainty. First, let's lay out the matriculators so we know which players constitute the two snapshots of the pipeline I am comparing:
2013: #150 OLB Peter Kalambayi, #171 QB Ryan Burns, #226 WR Francis Owusu, #331 ILB Kevin Palma, #374 TE Austin Hooper, #419 TE Greg Taboada, #549 TE Eric Cotton, #633 OL Thomas Oser, #719 OLB Mike Tyler, #932 OL Dave Bright, #1258 WR Taijuan Thomas
2014: #26 DL Solomon Thomas, #51 QB Keller Chryst, #85 OL Casey Tucker, #91 RB Christian McCaffrey, #101 TE Dalton Schultz, #176 ILB Bobby Okereke, #217 OLB Joey Alfieri, #222 DB Brandon Simmons, #319 OL Reilly Gibbons, #328 OL Brandon Fanaika, #503 DB Alijah Holder, #518 DB Terrence Alexander, #574 OL AT Hall, #590 WR Isaiah Brandt-Sims, #625 DL Harrison Phillips, #722 ILB Jordan Perez, #735 OLB Lane Veach, #742 OL Jesse Burkett, #794 DB Alameen Murphy, #965 DB Denzel Franklin, #1206 FB Daniel Marx
2018: #170 WR Simi Fehoko, #235 QB Jack West, #241 WR Michael Wilson, #262 DL Andres Fox, #282 DL Thomas Booker, #427 DB Kendall Williamson, #480 OLB Tobe Umerah, #529 OL Trey Stratford, #599 ILB Jacob Mangum-Farrar, #821 OLB Tangaloa Kaufusi, #842 OLB Caleb Kelly, #851 RB Justus Woods, #997 DB Donjae Logan, #1239 FB Jay Symonds, #1396 DB Ethan Bonner
2019: #83 WR Elijah Higgins, #91 RB Austin Jones, #137 OLB Stephen Herron Jr., #144 OL Branson Bragg, #154 DB Trent McDuffie, #187 DL Joshua Pakola, #210 DB Salim Turner-Muhammad, #253 WR Cornelius Johnson, #255 WR Colby Bowman, #257 ILB Tristan Sinclair, #312 ILB JD Bertrand, #481 OLB Aeneas DiCosmo, #486 ILB Levani Damuni, #527 OL Barrett Miller, #528 OL Walter Rouse, #584 DB Jonathan McGill, #626 RB Nathaniel Peat, #659 OL Jake Hornibrook, #745 TE Bradley Archer, #799 DB Kyu Kelly, #989 DB Zahran Manley, #1017 DB Nicolas Toomer, #2495 OL Drake Nugent
Like I said, I made some aggressive assumptions when it came to admissions/recruit decision uncertainty. I do not expect the 2019 class to be quite as good as indicated here. This is for the sake of argument and I can deal with nuance in the narrative. So let's compare:
Macro
Yesteryear: 4 top 101 (sue me, I think it's sensible to include Schultz as a whale), 15 top 400, 29 top 1000
Present day: 2 top 101, 16 top 400, 34 top 1000
I'm predicting a modest step backward. We can revisit in February once we know how many of those 2019 assumptions pan out but it seems to me that the most realistic scenarios will leave us short in comparison to the earlier classes. Elite talent will be well short and potentially embarrassingly so if things don't work out with Higgins and Jones. The 4-star range will almost certainly fall a bit short as well. It is harder to hazard a guess when it comes to the no doubt about it Power Five level, not least because we don't know if admissions/decision attrition guys will be replaced with credible Plan Bs or not. Overall, the step backward does not look like the bottom falling out but it is, well, not a step forward either.
QB
Huge step backward, though it's fair to point out that the class looming in both snapshots will probably be an advantage for the future roster. Burns/Chryst vs. West/McKee or West/Butterfield is a wash, and if we can sign a two QB class it would appear to be a position we are actually upgrading.
RB
It actually looks like an improvement, believe it or not. Enormous caveat though: Jones and Peat are no sure things to end up in the class. I will be sweating this out - major variable in how comfortable we should feel about the pipeline. [Also, this may be a position where a different timescale makes more sense than a two year snapshot as age/experience really doesn't matter much]
FB
Wash
WR
Absolutely gargantuan advantage for the current pipeline, potentially program-changing in our personality. There is considerable uncertainty about our 2019 WR haul but that will only affect the degree of enormity of improvement at this position, not the fact our WR pipeline blows away its predecessor.
TE
The mirror image of WR. Gargantuan advantage for the prior pipeline.
OL
Step backward but in the vicinity of the prior pipeline.
DL
A hard call. We look to have devoted more attention to DL in the recent recruiting but a mega whale like Thomas is worth a lot. More depth, less starpower.
OLB
Another hard one that depends on how much weight you give star power versus depth, with the latest haul once again the slightly deeper one.
ILB
Slight step forward or a wash probably depends on Bertrand.
DB
High likelihood of treading water but a potential for a substantial improvement if we can run the admissions gauntlet with the 2019 DBs.
Bottom line: the picture that emerges for me is a recruiting pipeline that is not regressing substantially but is also not improving and if you had to pick one you'd pick the less optimistic option (after all, if you're not improving you're getting worse!). On offense, the shift in the balance of power from TE to WR is a huge story, but there is this worry looming over everything that if Carberry can't deliver all will be for naught without an offensive line that can block. Defense looks like the epitome of treading water, unless we can somehow run the table on McDuffie, Bertrand, and McGill.
2013: #150 OLB Peter Kalambayi, #171 QB Ryan Burns, #226 WR Francis Owusu, #331 ILB Kevin Palma, #374 TE Austin Hooper, #419 TE Greg Taboada, #549 TE Eric Cotton, #633 OL Thomas Oser, #719 OLB Mike Tyler, #932 OL Dave Bright, #1258 WR Taijuan Thomas
2014: #26 DL Solomon Thomas, #51 QB Keller Chryst, #85 OL Casey Tucker, #91 RB Christian McCaffrey, #101 TE Dalton Schultz, #176 ILB Bobby Okereke, #217 OLB Joey Alfieri, #222 DB Brandon Simmons, #319 OL Reilly Gibbons, #328 OL Brandon Fanaika, #503 DB Alijah Holder, #518 DB Terrence Alexander, #574 OL AT Hall, #590 WR Isaiah Brandt-Sims, #625 DL Harrison Phillips, #722 ILB Jordan Perez, #735 OLB Lane Veach, #742 OL Jesse Burkett, #794 DB Alameen Murphy, #965 DB Denzel Franklin, #1206 FB Daniel Marx
2018: #170 WR Simi Fehoko, #235 QB Jack West, #241 WR Michael Wilson, #262 DL Andres Fox, #282 DL Thomas Booker, #427 DB Kendall Williamson, #480 OLB Tobe Umerah, #529 OL Trey Stratford, #599 ILB Jacob Mangum-Farrar, #821 OLB Tangaloa Kaufusi, #842 OLB Caleb Kelly, #851 RB Justus Woods, #997 DB Donjae Logan, #1239 FB Jay Symonds, #1396 DB Ethan Bonner
2019: #83 WR Elijah Higgins, #91 RB Austin Jones, #137 OLB Stephen Herron Jr., #144 OL Branson Bragg, #154 DB Trent McDuffie, #187 DL Joshua Pakola, #210 DB Salim Turner-Muhammad, #253 WR Cornelius Johnson, #255 WR Colby Bowman, #257 ILB Tristan Sinclair, #312 ILB JD Bertrand, #481 OLB Aeneas DiCosmo, #486 ILB Levani Damuni, #527 OL Barrett Miller, #528 OL Walter Rouse, #584 DB Jonathan McGill, #626 RB Nathaniel Peat, #659 OL Jake Hornibrook, #745 TE Bradley Archer, #799 DB Kyu Kelly, #989 DB Zahran Manley, #1017 DB Nicolas Toomer, #2495 OL Drake Nugent
Like I said, I made some aggressive assumptions when it came to admissions/recruit decision uncertainty. I do not expect the 2019 class to be quite as good as indicated here. This is for the sake of argument and I can deal with nuance in the narrative. So let's compare:
Macro
Yesteryear: 4 top 101 (sue me, I think it's sensible to include Schultz as a whale), 15 top 400, 29 top 1000
Present day: 2 top 101, 16 top 400, 34 top 1000
I'm predicting a modest step backward. We can revisit in February once we know how many of those 2019 assumptions pan out but it seems to me that the most realistic scenarios will leave us short in comparison to the earlier classes. Elite talent will be well short and potentially embarrassingly so if things don't work out with Higgins and Jones. The 4-star range will almost certainly fall a bit short as well. It is harder to hazard a guess when it comes to the no doubt about it Power Five level, not least because we don't know if admissions/decision attrition guys will be replaced with credible Plan Bs or not. Overall, the step backward does not look like the bottom falling out but it is, well, not a step forward either.
QB
Huge step backward, though it's fair to point out that the class looming in both snapshots will probably be an advantage for the future roster. Burns/Chryst vs. West/McKee or West/Butterfield is a wash, and if we can sign a two QB class it would appear to be a position we are actually upgrading.
RB
It actually looks like an improvement, believe it or not. Enormous caveat though: Jones and Peat are no sure things to end up in the class. I will be sweating this out - major variable in how comfortable we should feel about the pipeline. [Also, this may be a position where a different timescale makes more sense than a two year snapshot as age/experience really doesn't matter much]
FB
Wash
WR
Absolutely gargantuan advantage for the current pipeline, potentially program-changing in our personality. There is considerable uncertainty about our 2019 WR haul but that will only affect the degree of enormity of improvement at this position, not the fact our WR pipeline blows away its predecessor.
TE
The mirror image of WR. Gargantuan advantage for the prior pipeline.
OL
Step backward but in the vicinity of the prior pipeline.
DL
A hard call. We look to have devoted more attention to DL in the recent recruiting but a mega whale like Thomas is worth a lot. More depth, less starpower.
OLB
Another hard one that depends on how much weight you give star power versus depth, with the latest haul once again the slightly deeper one.
ILB
Slight step forward or a wash probably depends on Bertrand.
DB
High likelihood of treading water but a potential for a substantial improvement if we can run the admissions gauntlet with the 2019 DBs.
Bottom line: the picture that emerges for me is a recruiting pipeline that is not regressing substantially but is also not improving and if you had to pick one you'd pick the less optimistic option (after all, if you're not improving you're getting worse!). On offense, the shift in the balance of power from TE to WR is a huge story, but there is this worry looming over everything that if Carberry can't deliver all will be for naught without an offensive line that can block. Defense looks like the epitome of treading water, unless we can somehow run the table on McDuffie, Bertrand, and McGill.
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