Far and away the thing keeping me from being all in on enthusiasm for the Troy Taylor era is that Bobby April III's first year as defensive coordinator was an abject disaster. Maybe the worst defense in the history of Stanford football and it really shouldn't have been. One of my greatest hopes for this team is that our neophyte defensive coordinator wasn't ready for prime time but is so talented and pedigreed that his progress along the learning curve will be steep and the defense going forward will look nothing like last year. If he can get Stanford back to even mediocre defense it becomes much easier to envision success for Troy Taylor.
I've done some analyses putting into perspective what Taylor's first year and future prospects look like in light of head coaches who have had first years like him. I thought about doing the same for April, but on some reflection it seems to me that what was most salient about him last year was the rarity of being a Power Five defensive coordinator in his first year ever having such a role. Typically defensive coordinators have sharpened their skills at lower levels or in a co-DC role (the path for Mark Stoops, Bret Bielema, Brent Venables, Derek Mason, Glen Schumann, Tosh Lupoi, Mike Tressel, Coleman Hutzler, Brian Williams, Matt Powledge, Tyler Santucci, etc.). I thought it might be interesting to see the trajectory of coordinators who, like April, got thrown right into the deep end in their first jobs in the role. The ones I could find among current FBS head coaches or defensive coordinators (excluding co-DCs as that's definitely not apples-to-apples), ranked by my sense of their first break resume quality (rankings are scoring defense rankings):
Dan Lanning: #1, #16, #1 at Georgia from 2019-2021 (median #14 previous five years), parlayed that into a power head coaching job at Oregon
Trent Bray: #16 and #47 at Oregon State in 2022 and 2023 (median #105 previous five years), parlayed that into a limbo conference realignment victim head coaching job at Oregon State
Greg Schiano: #11 and #5 at Miami in 1999 and 2000 (median #30 previous five years), parlayed that into a power head coaching job at Rutgers
Clark Lea: #13, #12, #14 at Notre Dame from 2018-2020 (median #39 previous five years), parlayed that into a power head coaching job at Vanderbilt
Tony White: #35 at Arizona State in 2019 (median #99 previous five years), went to Syracuse and was #90, #64, #40 (median #90 previous five years) to parlay that into a Nebraska job where he was #13 (median #66 previous five years)
Morgan Scalley: #33, #39, #16, #6, #46, #35, #27, #18 at Utah from 2016-present (median #43 previous five years)
Brad White: #14, #45, #26, #11, #61 at Kentucky from 2019-present (median #74 previous five years)
Alex Grinch: #74, #50, #56 at Washington State from 2015-2016 (median #101 previous five years)
Phil Parker - #33, #9, #50, #19, #13, #17, #11, #5, #6, #13, #2, #4 at Iowa from 2012-present (median #8 previous five years)
Ron English: #15 and #23 at Michigan (median #24 previous five years) in 2006 and 2007 but then RichRod brought in new people....big mistake
Al Golden: #74, #50, #26, #17, #40 at Virginia from 2001-2005 (median #46 previous five years)
Chris Marve: #54 and #51 at Virginia Tech in 2022 and 2023 (median #54 previous five years)
DJ Durkin: #15 and #19 at Florida in 2013 and 2014 (median #5 previous five years)
Brad Lambert: #16, #65, #110 at Wake Forest in 2008-2010 (median #41 previous five years), went on to be a head coach at Charlotte for a long time before settling back in as a DC at Marshall, Purdue, and now back at Wake Forest
Jay Sawvel: #21 at Minnesota in 2016 (median #45 previous five years), #76 and #101 at Wake Forest in 2017 and 2018 (median #43 previous five years), had to drop a level to Wyoming where he's been #24, #43, #47, #37 from 2020-2023 (median #28 previous five years)
Travaris Robinson: #51, #25, #67, #53, and #105 at South Carolina from 2016-2020 (median #13 previous five years)
Peter Sirmon: #93 at Mississippi State in 2016 (had been top top 40 six years in a row) and moved down a level to Louisville in 2017, where he was #70 (had been top 40 seven years in a row) and then after those failures had to go rebuild his career initially as a non-coordinator at Cal
There are also some guys who, like April, have only had one year under their belt as DCs so it's hard to judge. D'Anton Lynn's first year was befitting the spectacular top end of coordinators: #14 at UCLA in 2023 (median #90 previous five years), now USC's DC. Matt Brock got the quick boot after one slightly subpar but not all that bad first year: Matt Brock: #68 at Mississippi State in 2023 (median #57 previous five years), now at Connecticut. Aaron Henry, like April, had an awful first year: #96 at Illinois in 2023 (median #54 previous five years). For what it's worth, April was #132 at Stanford in 2023 (median #79 previous five years).
There are also guys following in April's and the other's footsteps as untested first-time coordinators this year, including Robert Livingston (Colorado), Tim McGarible (Northwestern), Stephen Belichick (Washington), and, incredibly, Duane Akina (Arizona....while he had been co-DC way back in the day at Texas, this upcoming season marks his first as full defensive coordinator)
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I'm not going to lie, I did this entire exercise in the hope of finding examples that could give a glimmer of hope that massive improvement is possible after a disastrous maiden voyage as a neophyte power conference defensive coordinator. Just when I was about to lose hope, I found one:
Johnny Nansen (had been a high school DC for a year but I'm not going to count that): #126 and #30 at Arizona in 2022-2023 (median #109 previous five years)
I think that's what we are hoping for with April. That a) he inherited such a bombed out program and culture that that explains a fair amount of the first year failure (though Arizona had a far worse recent defensive history than Stanford and b) that there was a misfire in the first year as a coordinator but enough coaching ability and ability to adjust that the first year could be flushed and quickly replaced with something a lot better.
I am not saying I think it is possible for us to have the #30 scoring defense in 2024. But I am saying I haven't given up on April being way, way better than he's shown so far. We really need him to be. If he isn't, Taylor should have a short leash (though I worry he won't). As you can see from the above, there really is scant history of wunderkind neophyte DCs bouncing back from such bad first years. In fact, it's almost unheard of to not have a top 75 scoring defense the first year. April has a ton to prove but I'm hoping he can do it.
Amazing what an on-point aspirational comparison Arizona under Fisch is for our program. Taylor as Fisch and April as Nansen is as salient/poignant/realistic/exciting of a dream as we could have. And if Taylor takes a Big 10 job a year and a half from now I will be happy as that will mean he has healed our program and we've been able to enjoy some success after time in the wilderness. We could do worse than that. But before we can have success of any sort we really need to not have the worst defense in history. Pulling for you, Coach April!
I've done some analyses putting into perspective what Taylor's first year and future prospects look like in light of head coaches who have had first years like him. I thought about doing the same for April, but on some reflection it seems to me that what was most salient about him last year was the rarity of being a Power Five defensive coordinator in his first year ever having such a role. Typically defensive coordinators have sharpened their skills at lower levels or in a co-DC role (the path for Mark Stoops, Bret Bielema, Brent Venables, Derek Mason, Glen Schumann, Tosh Lupoi, Mike Tressel, Coleman Hutzler, Brian Williams, Matt Powledge, Tyler Santucci, etc.). I thought it might be interesting to see the trajectory of coordinators who, like April, got thrown right into the deep end in their first jobs in the role. The ones I could find among current FBS head coaches or defensive coordinators (excluding co-DCs as that's definitely not apples-to-apples), ranked by my sense of their first break resume quality (rankings are scoring defense rankings):
Dan Lanning: #1, #16, #1 at Georgia from 2019-2021 (median #14 previous five years), parlayed that into a power head coaching job at Oregon
Trent Bray: #16 and #47 at Oregon State in 2022 and 2023 (median #105 previous five years), parlayed that into a limbo conference realignment victim head coaching job at Oregon State
Greg Schiano: #11 and #5 at Miami in 1999 and 2000 (median #30 previous five years), parlayed that into a power head coaching job at Rutgers
Clark Lea: #13, #12, #14 at Notre Dame from 2018-2020 (median #39 previous five years), parlayed that into a power head coaching job at Vanderbilt
Tony White: #35 at Arizona State in 2019 (median #99 previous five years), went to Syracuse and was #90, #64, #40 (median #90 previous five years) to parlay that into a Nebraska job where he was #13 (median #66 previous five years)
Morgan Scalley: #33, #39, #16, #6, #46, #35, #27, #18 at Utah from 2016-present (median #43 previous five years)
Brad White: #14, #45, #26, #11, #61 at Kentucky from 2019-present (median #74 previous five years)
Alex Grinch: #74, #50, #56 at Washington State from 2015-2016 (median #101 previous five years)
Phil Parker - #33, #9, #50, #19, #13, #17, #11, #5, #6, #13, #2, #4 at Iowa from 2012-present (median #8 previous five years)
Ron English: #15 and #23 at Michigan (median #24 previous five years) in 2006 and 2007 but then RichRod brought in new people....big mistake
Al Golden: #74, #50, #26, #17, #40 at Virginia from 2001-2005 (median #46 previous five years)
Chris Marve: #54 and #51 at Virginia Tech in 2022 and 2023 (median #54 previous five years)
DJ Durkin: #15 and #19 at Florida in 2013 and 2014 (median #5 previous five years)
Brad Lambert: #16, #65, #110 at Wake Forest in 2008-2010 (median #41 previous five years), went on to be a head coach at Charlotte for a long time before settling back in as a DC at Marshall, Purdue, and now back at Wake Forest
Jay Sawvel: #21 at Minnesota in 2016 (median #45 previous five years), #76 and #101 at Wake Forest in 2017 and 2018 (median #43 previous five years), had to drop a level to Wyoming where he's been #24, #43, #47, #37 from 2020-2023 (median #28 previous five years)
Travaris Robinson: #51, #25, #67, #53, and #105 at South Carolina from 2016-2020 (median #13 previous five years)
Peter Sirmon: #93 at Mississippi State in 2016 (had been top top 40 six years in a row) and moved down a level to Louisville in 2017, where he was #70 (had been top 40 seven years in a row) and then after those failures had to go rebuild his career initially as a non-coordinator at Cal
There are also some guys who, like April, have only had one year under their belt as DCs so it's hard to judge. D'Anton Lynn's first year was befitting the spectacular top end of coordinators: #14 at UCLA in 2023 (median #90 previous five years), now USC's DC. Matt Brock got the quick boot after one slightly subpar but not all that bad first year: Matt Brock: #68 at Mississippi State in 2023 (median #57 previous five years), now at Connecticut. Aaron Henry, like April, had an awful first year: #96 at Illinois in 2023 (median #54 previous five years). For what it's worth, April was #132 at Stanford in 2023 (median #79 previous five years).
There are also guys following in April's and the other's footsteps as untested first-time coordinators this year, including Robert Livingston (Colorado), Tim McGarible (Northwestern), Stephen Belichick (Washington), and, incredibly, Duane Akina (Arizona....while he had been co-DC way back in the day at Texas, this upcoming season marks his first as full defensive coordinator)
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I'm not going to lie, I did this entire exercise in the hope of finding examples that could give a glimmer of hope that massive improvement is possible after a disastrous maiden voyage as a neophyte power conference defensive coordinator. Just when I was about to lose hope, I found one:
Johnny Nansen (had been a high school DC for a year but I'm not going to count that): #126 and #30 at Arizona in 2022-2023 (median #109 previous five years)
I think that's what we are hoping for with April. That a) he inherited such a bombed out program and culture that that explains a fair amount of the first year failure (though Arizona had a far worse recent defensive history than Stanford and b) that there was a misfire in the first year as a coordinator but enough coaching ability and ability to adjust that the first year could be flushed and quickly replaced with something a lot better.
I am not saying I think it is possible for us to have the #30 scoring defense in 2024. But I am saying I haven't given up on April being way, way better than he's shown so far. We really need him to be. If he isn't, Taylor should have a short leash (though I worry he won't). As you can see from the above, there really is scant history of wunderkind neophyte DCs bouncing back from such bad first years. In fact, it's almost unheard of to not have a top 75 scoring defense the first year. April has a ton to prove but I'm hoping he can do it.
Amazing what an on-point aspirational comparison Arizona under Fisch is for our program. Taylor as Fisch and April as Nansen is as salient/poignant/realistic/exciting of a dream as we could have. And if Taylor takes a Big 10 job a year and a half from now I will be happy as that will mean he has healed our program and we've been able to enjoy some success after time in the wilderness. We could do worse than that. But before we can have success of any sort we really need to not have the worst defense in history. Pulling for you, Coach April!
