Given the source, this thread will get nuked if I provide a link, so let's keep this thread icognito
Warning: the writer seems to operate without an editor
Pro Football Focus has some very interesting info on how Cardinal receivers were used last year and how set up they are to breakout in the passing game.
This discussion begins with JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who is the most likely candidate to end the all-conference receiver drought. There are many ways to say “he good,” and we’re going to do so right now. PFF tracks Wide Receiver Rating, which is basically the QB Rating of passers when throwing to a particular receiver. Arcega-Whiteside’s rating last year was 121.3, which was 32nd out of all Power 5 wide receivers and second-best in the Pac-12. For context, KJ Costello’s overall passer rating in 2017 was 92.2 and Keller Chryst’s was 79.6. Throwing to Arcega-Whiteside was and is pretty much always a good idea.
That number becomes even more impressive when you consider how Arcega-Whiteside was deployed. JJ spent only 14% of his snaps in the slot. Nationally, the average receiver spends 37% of snaps in that position. The normal receiver’s ADoT (Average Depth of Target) is 12.4 yards. Arcega-Whiteside’s was 17.3. Threat Rate is the % of aimed passes (excluding spikes, throways, and batted passes) that quarterbacks throw. The average threat rate is 24% for receivers. Arcega-Whiteside’s was 29%. The average Wide Receiver Rating? 84.4. So to sum up, teams knew to key on JJ, Stanford had him running the lowest percentage (read: deeper) and most challenging routes to complete, and he was still phenomenally efficient and productive.
Want more? The average % of catches that net first or touchdowns is 35%. Arcega-Whiteside’s average was 46%. That’s also the same rate at which he ran a deep (20+ yard) route, compared to 23% for the average receiver. He made the most out of his 48 catches on the year without question. It will be interesting to see how defenses adapt to him this year.
Stanford has far more than its top receiver returning. Connor Wedington and Trenton Irwin are also back, giving the Cardinal its same top three receivers for a consecutive season. Wedington’s numbers are intriguing, as his is deployment in relation to Irwin. More on that in a moment. Wedington had a 95.5 Wide Receiver Rating in 2017, and a 29% Threat Rate. 84% of passes thrown to him were completed, an impressive number compared to the average of 61%. That has a lot to do with how he was utilized in 2017. Anecdotally, you are probably conjuring up images of smoke routes and hitches on the regular, and that’s what the numbers suggest. Wedington spent 55.3% of his time in the slot, and his ADoT was just 5.1 yards. Irwin’s was twice that at 10.8.
Wedington had a 32% 1D/TD rate, which makes sense when you consider that he was running short of the sticks on most plays and you know where Cardinal red zone throws went in 2017. That being said, it’s probably time to get Wedington down the field a bit more. That’s especially so when you compare him to Irwin. Trenton had a WRR of 75 and a 62% completion percentage. The Senior-to-be from southern California did so while put in the slot only 18.3% of the time. The Cardinal could very well consider bringing Irwin inside and lining up Wedington on the outside and sending him on deeper routes in 2018. As a freshman, obviously Coach Shaw’s “Spoonfeed” Strategy was in effect, so with a greater amount of plays in his arsenal, Wedington could really step up this year, which might allow Irwin to play in spaces where he also could be more effective.
Stanford is as loaded across the board at the skill positions as it’s ever been. The only thing keeping this from becoming the Year of the Wide Receiver for the Cardinal is that the other position groups are headlined with formidable players as well. We’ll talk tight ends in another article, but that group should be outstanding this year, and the running backs, led by some guy named Bryce Love, should be ok too.
Warning: the writer seems to operate without an editor
Pro Football Focus has some very interesting info on how Cardinal receivers were used last year and how set up they are to breakout in the passing game.
This discussion begins with JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who is the most likely candidate to end the all-conference receiver drought. There are many ways to say “he good,” and we’re going to do so right now. PFF tracks Wide Receiver Rating, which is basically the QB Rating of passers when throwing to a particular receiver. Arcega-Whiteside’s rating last year was 121.3, which was 32nd out of all Power 5 wide receivers and second-best in the Pac-12. For context, KJ Costello’s overall passer rating in 2017 was 92.2 and Keller Chryst’s was 79.6. Throwing to Arcega-Whiteside was and is pretty much always a good idea.
That number becomes even more impressive when you consider how Arcega-Whiteside was deployed. JJ spent only 14% of his snaps in the slot. Nationally, the average receiver spends 37% of snaps in that position. The normal receiver’s ADoT (Average Depth of Target) is 12.4 yards. Arcega-Whiteside’s was 17.3. Threat Rate is the % of aimed passes (excluding spikes, throways, and batted passes) that quarterbacks throw. The average threat rate is 24% for receivers. Arcega-Whiteside’s was 29%. The average Wide Receiver Rating? 84.4. So to sum up, teams knew to key on JJ, Stanford had him running the lowest percentage (read: deeper) and most challenging routes to complete, and he was still phenomenally efficient and productive.
Want more? The average % of catches that net first or touchdowns is 35%. Arcega-Whiteside’s average was 46%. That’s also the same rate at which he ran a deep (20+ yard) route, compared to 23% for the average receiver. He made the most out of his 48 catches on the year without question. It will be interesting to see how defenses adapt to him this year.
Stanford has far more than its top receiver returning. Connor Wedington and Trenton Irwin are also back, giving the Cardinal its same top three receivers for a consecutive season. Wedington’s numbers are intriguing, as his is deployment in relation to Irwin. More on that in a moment. Wedington had a 95.5 Wide Receiver Rating in 2017, and a 29% Threat Rate. 84% of passes thrown to him were completed, an impressive number compared to the average of 61%. That has a lot to do with how he was utilized in 2017. Anecdotally, you are probably conjuring up images of smoke routes and hitches on the regular, and that’s what the numbers suggest. Wedington spent 55.3% of his time in the slot, and his ADoT was just 5.1 yards. Irwin’s was twice that at 10.8.
Wedington had a 32% 1D/TD rate, which makes sense when you consider that he was running short of the sticks on most plays and you know where Cardinal red zone throws went in 2017. That being said, it’s probably time to get Wedington down the field a bit more. That’s especially so when you compare him to Irwin. Trenton had a WRR of 75 and a 62% completion percentage. The Senior-to-be from southern California did so while put in the slot only 18.3% of the time. The Cardinal could very well consider bringing Irwin inside and lining up Wedington on the outside and sending him on deeper routes in 2018. As a freshman, obviously Coach Shaw’s “Spoonfeed” Strategy was in effect, so with a greater amount of plays in his arsenal, Wedington could really step up this year, which might allow Irwin to play in spaces where he also could be more effective.
Stanford is as loaded across the board at the skill positions as it’s ever been. The only thing keeping this from becoming the Year of the Wide Receiver for the Cardinal is that the other position groups are headlined with formidable players as well. We’ll talk tight ends in another article, but that group should be outstanding this year, and the running backs, led by some guy named Bryce Love, should be ok too.
