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Friday morning thoughts - Alamo Bowl

msqueri

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Jan 5, 2006
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1. I had a great time. As always, I enjoyed sharing a game with fellow Cardinal fanatic road warriors. Also as always, the alumni association tailgate was first rate. In a big surprise, the Stanford allotment tickets my group had were at midfield with a great vantage on the game. The one, the only, the truly incomparable LSJUMB had a classy pregame routine and a funny halftime routine, followed by a million high school kids producing a cool effect with the one kind of true marching band performance I enjoy (huge volume of people producing a big sound), though there was the epically boring TCU band performance in between. Pre-tailgate I also enjoyed the River Walk and, after a Wednesday night misfire, got the great Mexican food I craved for lunch yesterday (not on the River Walk). San Antonio's locals were welcoming and charming.

2. I also enjoyed the game. As I expected, it was a really good game with good and bad moments for both teams, lots of drama, and a final result Vegas nailed. There were many things (Okereke interception, Toner field goal, punt return TD, maybe the delay of game, Costello not having a super bone-headed interception, etc.) where if any one thing goes differently maybe we are celebrating a tenth win and a great season-capper against a really good team. The final result was disappointing but I always have trouble swallowing the super despondent post-game takes when very, very small variance would have led to a different outcome. Especially when we covered the spread against a good team in a game where we had some adverse circumstances. Anybody who thinks this was a bad game for Stanford needs to take a few breaths.

3. Like I said above, I had a great time with my fellow road warriors. I actually thought walking around San Antonio and being at the official tailgate that it looked like we had a pretty good showing, even if in the stadium it looked hugely lopsided to the purple side. Nonetheless, I was left with a sour taste about the reputation the Alamo Bowl seems to have among our fan base more widely. I kept hearing people refer to it as a mid-tier bowl and the large numbers that stayed away reinforced that impression. Folks, TCU is a top 15 team (now going to be top ten) that has been near the top of the sport the last decade. The bowl that gets the runners up from the Pac-12 and Big 12 is much closer to the Rose Bowl than it is to Foster Farms or Sun, but I think a lot of our fans don't get that. Frustrating.

4. There are a lot of silly takes posted in frustration after a loss (which is why I do these posts the next day) but one of the ones I found silliest last night were those saying Costello is a bum. 37 points against a defense that gives up 19 per game, 143.36 passer rating against a defense that gives up 125.33 on average, all with a fractured thumb and rotating left tackles. I'm as confident as ever that we have a good quarterback.

5. Vintage Bryce Love. Extremely impressive performance by Love and really good performance by the Cardinal offensive line against that front seven. Exceeded my fairly confident expectations. What a season Love gave us. If I don't pay tribute to his statistical greatness in the coming days somebody remind me.

6. It has been a lot of fun being out front banging the drum on JJ Arcega-Whiteside as an elite receiver. He truly is, will be in the NFL at some point. There are more elegant ways for me to make this point but consider that Stanford is 98th in the nation in passing yards yet JJAW has muscled his way to 66th in the nation in receiving and 23rd in receiving touchdowns.

7. I've used these posts throughout the season to flirt with the shocking idea Stanford's offense is better than the defense this year. Now that the season is in the books I think the reverse is the more outlandish idea at this point. Alwayswithaudacity laid it out pretty well in another thread. This is not a good defense. Nightmare season for Lance Anderson. It is counter to our expectations and biases but ultimately what kept Stanford from being a top ten team or better was a mediocre if not outright bad defense. 83rd in pass efficiency defense (seriously, Meeks and Reid and anybody else inclined to toot his own horn needs to STFU), 80th in rushing yards allowed per carry, 90th in yards per play allowed overall, 62nd in FEI, 54th in S&P. Mediocre if you're charitable, crappy if you're not. In any case, I think it is crystal clear the defense is what held Stanford back this season.

8. It's always nice when a much-maligned player perseveres and emerges as a quality player. It happened this year with AT Hall and arguably Eric Cotton. I'm hoping last night is a sign that Frank Buncom is up next. Two interceptions, a fumble recovery, and a tackle for loss is a loud stat sheet.

9. Its natural to start looking ahead to next year but I agree with the take some have expressed that we need to wait until we know who Stanford and other teams return before we know much. That said, the more cataclysmic takes we've seen in the last 12 hours strike me as ridiculous. Even if Love is the cog that masks everything on offense I think enough returns that we can expect at least a middling offense. A defense without Phillips could reasonably be expected to take a step backward. But I'm confused how that combination/Stanford's track record adds up to something worse than a top third of the conference team. Let's not be the spoiled fans who can't distinguish between "not champs" and "bad." There's a lot in between. Our 2018 future looks very murky to me but somewhere in that vast space between the extremes seems likely to me. [Again, detailed forecasting needs to wait for NFL departure decisions but I strongly suspect Browning back + Peterson + solid recruiting + Stanford at home + not playing USC = Washington the favorite.]

10. Most importantly, thank you to everybody who laced up for the Cardinal for the last time. We will see who all that entails but it's a group that's given a lot and produced a lot of good memories. Go get 'em in the league, business, wherever you end up. Go Card!
 
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