As is always the case, most of the discussion is around the last team in and last team out of a selection committee-based playoff field. In the first year of the 12-team CFP, that debate centers on Alabama being last in, and Miami being last out. There is also some debate around whether if SMU loses to Clemson in the ACCCG, will they hold on to an at-large bid. IOW, all the arguments around ACC teams.
After last week at this time, having a possibility of getting three teams in, the ACC now faces a potential of only one, the same as the Mountain West. Given the amount of money that is given to conferences based on number of teams in the CFP, this is a non-trivial matter for conference competitiveness purposes.
My take on the ACC teams in this conversation:
Miami: Though I was rooting for the 'Canes this season, and they have a great Offense, the Defense is not playoff-worthy, IMO. Blowing a 21-pt lead to a Syracuse team Stanford beat, kind of proved it. So I don't really have an issue with Miami being out. But should Alabama be in ahead of them?
Clemson: This team is an enigma to me. They have been wildly inconsistent, especially on Offense. I think they have the best OL/DL in the ACC, but their skill players on Offense just don't stand out as real difference-makers.
SMU: The most well-rounded team in the ACC. They have good skill position players and a QB that makes winning plays against overmatched Defenses. They like to play fast, but their coach is a little unhinged and the team plays undisciplined as a result; only New Mexico in the FBS commits more penalties per game this season.
Can Clemson beat SMU for Automatic bid?
I think they can. The only reason they lost to South Carolina was because SC's QB escaped being sacked and instead made big plays on multiple occasions. The SMU QB can run, but he is not the same animal so Clemson can contain him. The question will be can Clemson's Offense do enough?
If Clemson wins, does SMU still get in CFP as at-large?
Maybe. Depends on how they play against Clemson. Committee may rather just give the ACC another team rather than try to decide between Ole Miss and South Carolina. Then again, isn't it "suppose to be" 5 SEC and 4 Big Ten teams?
Thoughts? Who would you put in the CFP and why?