Where Connelly’s model spits out the ACC/Stanford’s schedule (offense, defense, special teams rankings parenthetically):
10) Notre Dame (10, 9, 53)
12) Florida State (16, 10, 8)
14) Clemson (15, 13, 66)
19) Miami (18, 36, 3)
23) SMU (22, 39, 99)
28) Louisville (57, 23, 64)
29) NC State (56, 25, 15)
32) Virginia Tech (42, 33, 14)
36) TCU (30, 44, 81)
47) Duke (70, 34, 18)
50) North Carolina (36, 65, 46)
52) Cal (34, 88, 129)
63) Georgia Tech (35, 99, 68)
64) Syracuse (73, 54, 86)
75) Boston College (77, 72, 84)
77) Virginia (75, 81, 71)
78) Wake Forest (86, 59, 103)
81) Pitt (97, 53, 88)
84) Stanford (71, 94, 36)
112) San Jose State (100, 101, 130)
Observations:
* Yes, we are expected to be the worst team in the ACC, but what I notice is the traffic jam trying to get out of the basement. Four ACC teams any one of whom it wouldn't be all that surprising for us to better than and six for whom it wouldn't be totally shocking (though it would start to be getting to pretty surprising territory). Not finishing dead last can be one of our modest goals for this year.
* Facing three top 25 teams would feel like a very easy schedule by our historical standards and certainly compared to last year.
* The offense is expected to be mediocre, 12th of 17 ACC teams. Not good but not bad either. Our season-ending offensive SP+ the last three years has been #95, #70, #104. SP+ thinks we are still another year away, at least, from getting to the level of offense we had in the pandemic-shortened year, but nonetheless expects a marked improvement from last year.
* The defense is expected to be bad, 16th of 17 ACC teams. Bad but hey, at least avoid the sub-100 indignity. Our season-ending defensive SP+ the last three years has been #116, #103, #107. SP+ thinks this will be our best defense since at least the pandemic-shortened year. Not a very high bar to clear in recent years considering we've had bad defenses every year for a half decade.
* The special teams is expected to be good, 6th of 17 ACC teams. Not a big advantage but still good. Our season-ending special teams SP+ the last three years has been #36, #18, #22. SP+ is betting our special teams will hold about steady with last year, which itself could be reinforcing a downward trend compared to where we typically were under Alamar's dedicated special teams coaching.
* Overall, our season-ending SP+ the last three years has been #108, #93, #105. At least by this one model there is an indication that 2024 is expected to be our best team since 2020.
Now, as I've said all off-season, we have to be able to hold the thought in our head that this very well could be an improved team - even our best team in four years - and still not win very many games. Here's what our implied win probability would be for each game if both Stanford and the teams we play are at the level SP+ forecasts (using a 2.44 home field advantage, which is what Sagarin calculated was the home field adjustment in 2023 and is relatively high for recent years but it makes sense to me to use a relatively high adjustment given the cross-country travel required for us or our opponents for so many games this year):
TCU - 25 percent
Cal Poly - 100 percent
at Syracuse - 28 percent
at Clemson - 0 percent
Virginia Tech - 22 percent
at Notre Dame - 0 percent
SMU - 17 percent
Wake Forest - 51 percent
at NC State - 12 percent
Louisville - 20 percent
at Cal - 22 percent
at San Jose State - 57 percent
EXPECTED TOTAL WINS: 3.54 WINS
Basically the epitome of a 3.5 win over/under. The bottom line is SP+ thinks we will be improved, our best team in several years, and win three or four games. If one is looking for evidence of progress, it seems pretty straightforward after three straight three win seasons our goal this year should be to win four games.
10) Notre Dame (10, 9, 53)
12) Florida State (16, 10, 8)
14) Clemson (15, 13, 66)
19) Miami (18, 36, 3)
23) SMU (22, 39, 99)
28) Louisville (57, 23, 64)
29) NC State (56, 25, 15)
32) Virginia Tech (42, 33, 14)
36) TCU (30, 44, 81)
47) Duke (70, 34, 18)
50) North Carolina (36, 65, 46)
52) Cal (34, 88, 129)
63) Georgia Tech (35, 99, 68)
64) Syracuse (73, 54, 86)
75) Boston College (77, 72, 84)
77) Virginia (75, 81, 71)
78) Wake Forest (86, 59, 103)
81) Pitt (97, 53, 88)
84) Stanford (71, 94, 36)
112) San Jose State (100, 101, 130)
Observations:
* Yes, we are expected to be the worst team in the ACC, but what I notice is the traffic jam trying to get out of the basement. Four ACC teams any one of whom it wouldn't be all that surprising for us to better than and six for whom it wouldn't be totally shocking (though it would start to be getting to pretty surprising territory). Not finishing dead last can be one of our modest goals for this year.
* Facing three top 25 teams would feel like a very easy schedule by our historical standards and certainly compared to last year.
* The offense is expected to be mediocre, 12th of 17 ACC teams. Not good but not bad either. Our season-ending offensive SP+ the last three years has been #95, #70, #104. SP+ thinks we are still another year away, at least, from getting to the level of offense we had in the pandemic-shortened year, but nonetheless expects a marked improvement from last year.
* The defense is expected to be bad, 16th of 17 ACC teams. Bad but hey, at least avoid the sub-100 indignity. Our season-ending defensive SP+ the last three years has been #116, #103, #107. SP+ thinks this will be our best defense since at least the pandemic-shortened year. Not a very high bar to clear in recent years considering we've had bad defenses every year for a half decade.
* The special teams is expected to be good, 6th of 17 ACC teams. Not a big advantage but still good. Our season-ending special teams SP+ the last three years has been #36, #18, #22. SP+ is betting our special teams will hold about steady with last year, which itself could be reinforcing a downward trend compared to where we typically were under Alamar's dedicated special teams coaching.
* Overall, our season-ending SP+ the last three years has been #108, #93, #105. At least by this one model there is an indication that 2024 is expected to be our best team since 2020.
Now, as I've said all off-season, we have to be able to hold the thought in our head that this very well could be an improved team - even our best team in four years - and still not win very many games. Here's what our implied win probability would be for each game if both Stanford and the teams we play are at the level SP+ forecasts (using a 2.44 home field advantage, which is what Sagarin calculated was the home field adjustment in 2023 and is relatively high for recent years but it makes sense to me to use a relatively high adjustment given the cross-country travel required for us or our opponents for so many games this year):
TCU - 25 percent
Cal Poly - 100 percent
at Syracuse - 28 percent
at Clemson - 0 percent
Virginia Tech - 22 percent
at Notre Dame - 0 percent
SMU - 17 percent
Wake Forest - 51 percent
at NC State - 12 percent
Louisville - 20 percent
at Cal - 22 percent
at San Jose State - 57 percent
EXPECTED TOTAL WINS: 3.54 WINS
Basically the epitome of a 3.5 win over/under. The bottom line is SP+ thinks we will be improved, our best team in several years, and win three or four games. If one is looking for evidence of progress, it seems pretty straightforward after three straight three win seasons our goal this year should be to win four games.
