It's hard for me to even know where to start when it comes to the signals Jacob gave us in Recruiting Notes 13.0 (and have also been reported elsewhere) that our staff is prepared for the possibility of just four offensive linemen in the 2019 class. It was bad enough last year when we made (and executed) a stupid plan to starve the OL pipeline, but for us to follow that by raising the white flag so early on the need to sign a great and huge OL class has really been a buzzkill for me after such a great recruiting weekend.
The main reason the extremely low numbers over a multiple-year stretch are disconcerting to me is that it unnecessarily takes on risk at a position group that is always central in football and has been at the heart of Stanford's success in recent years. Without rehashing all the old arguments, a lot of it boils down to two main ones:
* putting undue pressure on yourself to hit an eight run grand slam the next year (we thought we had to nail OL recruiting in 2019 too....if you keep deferring the year that will save your bacon eventually you will get burnt)
* forcing yourself to rely on young linemen because the pipeline ensures there will not be a significant group of veterans down the line.
I will spare you all (for now) all of the data of how Stanford's experiences under Walsh, Willingham, Teevens, and others, Shaw's own successes and relatively less successful years, and the history of college football all demonstrate why it is a bad idea to recruit OL lightly over a multiple year stretch. Instead, let's look at Shaw's own revealed preferences, as shown by how he has recruited OL as Stanford's coach. Here are the number of OL recruited in each three year cohort under Shaw if we do indeed up with just four in this class (and telegraphing in July that we may fall short of a five man class raises the specter in my mind that further downside surprise could lead to either a three person class or a reach for the last spot or two):
2012-2014: 13
2013-2015: 11
2014-2016: 14
2015-2017: 12
2016-2018: 9
2017-2019: 8
This idea of standing pat at four offensive linemen in the 2019 class is lunacy. The program Shaw built never relied on so few offensive linemen over any three year stretch until the utterly disastrous one man 2018 OL class. Actually, every three year stretch had multiple more offensive linemen than the risk we are taking on with the 2018 and 2019 classes. 12/13 was the median and 12.5 was the average. That would be the obvious range to target. To fall 4-5 OL short over a three year period is recruiting malpractice. What is the argument otherwise?
The main reason the extremely low numbers over a multiple-year stretch are disconcerting to me is that it unnecessarily takes on risk at a position group that is always central in football and has been at the heart of Stanford's success in recent years. Without rehashing all the old arguments, a lot of it boils down to two main ones:
* putting undue pressure on yourself to hit an eight run grand slam the next year (we thought we had to nail OL recruiting in 2019 too....if you keep deferring the year that will save your bacon eventually you will get burnt)
* forcing yourself to rely on young linemen because the pipeline ensures there will not be a significant group of veterans down the line.
I will spare you all (for now) all of the data of how Stanford's experiences under Walsh, Willingham, Teevens, and others, Shaw's own successes and relatively less successful years, and the history of college football all demonstrate why it is a bad idea to recruit OL lightly over a multiple year stretch. Instead, let's look at Shaw's own revealed preferences, as shown by how he has recruited OL as Stanford's coach. Here are the number of OL recruited in each three year cohort under Shaw if we do indeed up with just four in this class (and telegraphing in July that we may fall short of a five man class raises the specter in my mind that further downside surprise could lead to either a three person class or a reach for the last spot or two):
2012-2014: 13
2013-2015: 11
2014-2016: 14
2015-2017: 12
2016-2018: 9
2017-2019: 8
This idea of standing pat at four offensive linemen in the 2019 class is lunacy. The program Shaw built never relied on so few offensive linemen over any three year stretch until the utterly disastrous one man 2018 OL class. Actually, every three year stretch had multiple more offensive linemen than the risk we are taking on with the 2018 and 2019 classes. 12/13 was the median and 12.5 was the average. That would be the obvious range to target. To fall 4-5 OL short over a three year period is recruiting malpractice. What is the argument otherwise?
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