An interesting exchange with @SamuelMcF in another thread made me realize it wouldn't be too tough to look at the prevalence of players returning for a fifth year under Shaw compared to under his predecessors. The 2011-2017 classes provide us the cohort of players Shaw has coached who have had the opportunity to get to a fifth year. To have an equal number of classes in comparison, I'll also look at the 2004-2010 classes to juxtapose yesteryear with the modern era when it comes to players getting to their fifth years. Buckle in (parentheticals refer to the players who did make it to their fifth year, strike-through are those who didn't).....
Quarterback
2004-2010: 22 percent (Pritchard, Loukas) -Kiilsgaard, Crow, Luck, Nunes, Hill, Nottingham, Daniel
2011-2017: 33 percent (Hogan, Burns) -Crower, Chryst, Costello, Mills
Comment: A poignant illustration of Shaw's ethos at QB. Whereas Harbaugh discarded and churned through QBs like it was his job, Shaw intentionally recruits fewer largely because he doesn't want to discard/churn. The result is the same number of QBs who made it the distance but less attrition along the way. '
Running Back/Fullback
2004-2010: 33 percent (Kimble, Johnson, Stewart, Gaffney, Seale) -Arlich, Jones, Carter, Gerhart, Marecic, Taylor, Hewitt, Meinken, Wilkerson, Plantaric
2011-2017: 31 percent (Wright, Scarlett, Heimuli, Maddox) -Young, Skov, Sanders, McCaffrey, Marx, Love, Williams, Speights, Lund
Comment: Pretty similar-looking picture.
Wide Receiver
2004-2010: 13 percent (Gatewood) -Carr, Baldwin, Owusu, Patterson, Roberts, Terrell, Nelson
2011-2017: 20 percent (Cajuste, Rector, Brandt-Sims) -Montgomery, Jordan, Crane, Owusu, Thomas, Irwin, Arcega-Whiteside, Tyler, Stewart, Segina, St. Brown, Wedington
Comment: Soooo many more WRs under Shaw than under Teevens/Harris/Harbaugh, as well as higher-quality, as well as better long-term retention.
Tight End
2004-2010: 38 percent (Gunder, Dray, Fleener) -Ladner, Ertz, Najvar, Toilolo, Dudchock
2011-2017: 25 percent (Harrington, Fisk) -Hopkins, Hooper, Taboada, Schultz, Smith, Parkinson
Comment: Long-term retention has declined due to TEs departing for the NFL slightly more frequently. They departed for the NFL in very high numbers in both data sets.
Offensive Line
2004-2010: 54 percent (Smith, Muth, Fletcher, Kopa, McGillicuddy, Marinelli, Hall, Phillips, Mabry, Bentler, Schwartzstein, Wilkes, Danser) -Kyed, McBride, Dembesky, Hallick, Halamandaris, DeCastro, Martin, Underwood, Bonnell, Fleming, Yankey
2011-2017: 21 percent (Austin, Fanaika, Caspers, Bright, Hall, Burkett) -Reihner, Salem, Murphy, Peat, Garnett, Shuler, Davidson, Oser, Tucker, Gibbons, Wilson, Chaffin, Dreyer, Maihen, Yarbrough, Hamilton, Hattis, Herbig, Powell, Sarell, Little, Dalman
Comment: An absolute implosion. What a story this picture paints. Wow wow wow. OL used to typically stay five or even six years, now it is very rare. As you can see from the parenthetical guys in the former group and the crossed-out guys in the latter, this makes a huge difference. Imagine prior Stanford teams without fifth year Marinelli, Hall, Phillips, Schwartzstein, Wilkes, and Danser; imagine next year's team with Dalman, Little, and Sarell. Absolutely brutal.
Defensive Line
2004-2010: 71 percent (Egboh, Lorig, McAndrew, Udofia, Fua, Masifilo, Mauro, Gardner, Lueders, Anderson) -Griffin, Keiser, Scott, Stephens
2011-2017: 28 percent (Watkins, Cotton, Schaffer, Johnson, Wade-Perry) -Hayes, Callihan, Shittu, Kaumatule, Lohn, Nwafor, Thomas, Phillips, Jackson, Annan, Williams, Swann, Peek
Comment: Same thing here! Basically cut and paste what I wrote for OL except the prior norm for DL was even stronger to stay a fifth year. It is really when football gets fun for these guys as they can use their old man strength. But Stanford DL these days just don't tend to stay so long. And imagine how much starker this would be if we didn't just have both of our rising fifth year guys come back. I am so grateful Wade-Perry and Johnson are bucking this trend. I hope it reverses the inertia here.
Linebacker
2004-2010: 61 percent (Maynor, Powers, Snyder, Bergen, Thomas, Debniak, Skov, Lancaster, Murphy, Tarpley, Hemschoot) -Campbell, Macaluso, Frink, Amajoyi, Craig, Turner, Robinson
2011-2017: 67 percent (Anderson, Davis, Kalambayi, Palma, Tyler, Okereke, Alfieri, Perez, Toohill, Fox, Reid, Robinson) -Vaughters, Martinez, Barton, Veach, Branch, Pryts
Comment: Pretty similar picture but we've actually been having a fair number of LBs come back for the fifth year. We're obviously banking this trend holds for the 2019 class.
Defensive Back
2004-2010: 33 percent (Osaisai, Evans, McNally, Sherman, Yancy, Bernard, Amanam, Lloyd) -McFall, Hobbs, Rance, Porras, Mueller, Wiser, Skaufel, Thomas, Evans, Turner, Bademosi, Howell, Brown, Carrington, Reynolds, Browning
2011-2017: 36 percent (Harris, Pippens, Hoffpauir, Simmons, Holder, Murphy, Butler, Antoine) -Lyons, Richards, Carter, Whitfield, Madhu, Alexander, Franklin, Buncom, Edwards, Reid, Meeks, Eboh, Adebo, Head
Comment: Very similar picture here too.
Specialist
2004-2010: 100 percent (Green, Zychlinski, Williamson)
2011-2017: 33 percent (Toner) -Bailey, McNitzky
Comment: Too small of a sample to draw much but it does seem like Shaw's approach is to play scholarship specialists right away, in which case they don't redshirt.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A few big-picture observations:
* This comports with conventional wisdom: guys further away from the ball find an easier path to early playing time and thus tend to stay a shorter amount of time. Running backs, receivers, and defensive backs should play right away if they're any good. A redshirt is not that valuable and typically only used by role players with no NFL future, though Holder and Antoine were the rare guys in this category who came back despite being very important at their positions. At Stanford tight end works out this way too, though the early attrition has a lot to do with just how good our tight ends have been.
* On offense between 2004-2010, 24 of 64 (38 percent) availed themselves of the 5th year. On offense between 2011-2017, 17 of 70 (24 percent) availed themselves of the 5th year. Clear decline BUT if you strip out OL it is 11 of 40 (28 percent) vs. 11 of 42 (26 percent), not really a significant decline at all. The story here is the inability to get OL to stay.
* On defense between 2004-2010, 29 of 56 (52 percent) availed themselves of the 5th year. On defense between 2011-2017, 25 of 58 (43 percent availed themselves of the 5th year. Clear decline BUT if you strip out DL it is 19 of 42 (45 percent) vs. 20 of 40 (50 percent), actually a slight increase. The story here is the inability to get DL to stay.
Bottom line: my/our narrative about players no longer staying five years appears to be imprecise. It's the trenches where guys aren't staying deep into their careers. Some of us have made comments over the years about Shaw not developing players like Harbaugh did but I wonder how much of that might be the players at the positions where physical development matters not staying on campus long enough for us to see the physical development.
Quarterback
2004-2010: 22 percent (Pritchard, Loukas) -
2011-2017: 33 percent (Hogan, Burns) -
Comment: A poignant illustration of Shaw's ethos at QB. Whereas Harbaugh discarded and churned through QBs like it was his job, Shaw intentionally recruits fewer largely because he doesn't want to discard/churn. The result is the same number of QBs who made it the distance but less attrition along the way. '
Running Back/Fullback
2004-2010: 33 percent (Kimble, Johnson, Stewart, Gaffney, Seale) -
2011-2017: 31 percent (Wright, Scarlett, Heimuli, Maddox) -
Comment: Pretty similar-looking picture.
Wide Receiver
2004-2010: 13 percent (Gatewood) -
2011-2017: 20 percent (Cajuste, Rector, Brandt-Sims) -
Comment: Soooo many more WRs under Shaw than under Teevens/Harris/Harbaugh, as well as higher-quality, as well as better long-term retention.
Tight End
2004-2010: 38 percent (Gunder, Dray, Fleener) -
2011-2017: 25 percent (Harrington, Fisk) -
Comment: Long-term retention has declined due to TEs departing for the NFL slightly more frequently. They departed for the NFL in very high numbers in both data sets.
Offensive Line
2004-2010: 54 percent (Smith, Muth, Fletcher, Kopa, McGillicuddy, Marinelli, Hall, Phillips, Mabry, Bentler, Schwartzstein, Wilkes, Danser) -
2011-2017: 21 percent (Austin, Fanaika, Caspers, Bright, Hall, Burkett) -
Comment: An absolute implosion. What a story this picture paints. Wow wow wow. OL used to typically stay five or even six years, now it is very rare. As you can see from the parenthetical guys in the former group and the crossed-out guys in the latter, this makes a huge difference. Imagine prior Stanford teams without fifth year Marinelli, Hall, Phillips, Schwartzstein, Wilkes, and Danser; imagine next year's team with Dalman, Little, and Sarell. Absolutely brutal.
Defensive Line
2004-2010: 71 percent (Egboh, Lorig, McAndrew, Udofia, Fua, Masifilo, Mauro, Gardner, Lueders, Anderson) -
2011-2017: 28 percent (Watkins, Cotton, Schaffer, Johnson, Wade-Perry) -
Comment: Same thing here! Basically cut and paste what I wrote for OL except the prior norm for DL was even stronger to stay a fifth year. It is really when football gets fun for these guys as they can use their old man strength. But Stanford DL these days just don't tend to stay so long. And imagine how much starker this would be if we didn't just have both of our rising fifth year guys come back. I am so grateful Wade-Perry and Johnson are bucking this trend. I hope it reverses the inertia here.
Linebacker
2004-2010: 61 percent (Maynor, Powers, Snyder, Bergen, Thomas, Debniak, Skov, Lancaster, Murphy, Tarpley, Hemschoot) -
2011-2017: 67 percent (Anderson, Davis, Kalambayi, Palma, Tyler, Okereke, Alfieri, Perez, Toohill, Fox, Reid, Robinson) -
Comment: Pretty similar picture but we've actually been having a fair number of LBs come back for the fifth year. We're obviously banking this trend holds for the 2019 class.
Defensive Back
2004-2010: 33 percent (Osaisai, Evans, McNally, Sherman, Yancy, Bernard, Amanam, Lloyd) -
2011-2017: 36 percent (Harris, Pippens, Hoffpauir, Simmons, Holder, Murphy, Butler, Antoine) -
Comment: Very similar picture here too.
Specialist
2004-2010: 100 percent (Green, Zychlinski, Williamson)
2011-2017: 33 percent (Toner) -
Comment: Too small of a sample to draw much but it does seem like Shaw's approach is to play scholarship specialists right away, in which case they don't redshirt.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A few big-picture observations:
* This comports with conventional wisdom: guys further away from the ball find an easier path to early playing time and thus tend to stay a shorter amount of time. Running backs, receivers, and defensive backs should play right away if they're any good. A redshirt is not that valuable and typically only used by role players with no NFL future, though Holder and Antoine were the rare guys in this category who came back despite being very important at their positions. At Stanford tight end works out this way too, though the early attrition has a lot to do with just how good our tight ends have been.
* On offense between 2004-2010, 24 of 64 (38 percent) availed themselves of the 5th year. On offense between 2011-2017, 17 of 70 (24 percent) availed themselves of the 5th year. Clear decline BUT if you strip out OL it is 11 of 40 (28 percent) vs. 11 of 42 (26 percent), not really a significant decline at all. The story here is the inability to get OL to stay.
* On defense between 2004-2010, 29 of 56 (52 percent) availed themselves of the 5th year. On defense between 2011-2017, 25 of 58 (43 percent availed themselves of the 5th year. Clear decline BUT if you strip out DL it is 19 of 42 (45 percent) vs. 20 of 40 (50 percent), actually a slight increase. The story here is the inability to get DL to stay.
Bottom line: my/our narrative about players no longer staying five years appears to be imprecise. It's the trenches where guys aren't staying deep into their careers. Some of us have made comments over the years about Shaw not developing players like Harbaugh did but I wonder how much of that might be the players at the positions where physical development matters not staying on campus long enough for us to see the physical development.
Last edited:
