1. Bryce Love - wow wow wow. Such a stud. I think there's always some degree of skepticism with running backs as draft prospects because of the total studs you can get in any round of the draft (I do not consider McCaffrey an exception to the rule because his receiving ability makes his NFL projection not-really-a-RB) and I think NFL teams will want to see a full season of starting film from Love, but I don't rule out that he could be a very high draft pick. I keep thinking Chris Johnson.
2. Any win is always very satisfying to me and any 30+ point scoring game always feels pretty good but before we get too excited about our offense I'd note that with Love putting in a performance for the ages and breaking off four 39+ runs (five 30+ runs) we still were held under Arizona State's scoring defense average. They came in surrendering 37 points per game, we scored 34. I did not consider this a very impressive refutation of any concerns we might have about our offense, especially considering our track record over the last year of beating up on bad defenses like this.
3. Nonetheless, I am starting to come to grips with a shocking realization: it is possible our offense might be better than our defense this year. Five games is starting to be a not insignificant sample and we currently rank 24th in the nation in scoring offense and 62nd in scoring defense. The offense has faced the #42, #66, #106, #115, and #120 scoring defenses. The defense has faced the #14, #39, #56, #65, and #129 scoring offenses. It is crystal clear that the defense has faced much tougher competition than the offense. Thus, as we start facing better defenses it is possible that our points scored/points allowed numbers start coming into closer alignment with expectations and the natural way of the world. But I think it's also possible that the delta between our points scored/points allowed numbers so far indicates something surprising about our team.
4. I keep trying to wrap my head around Costello's performance and keep coming to the same place: he has looked good and gotten the job done but it's tough to analyze beyond that until he faces a defense with a pulse. As somebody who likes to look at stats to get a reality check on what lying eyes might tell us I am a bit perplexed by the disparity in what the various metrics tell us. As others have noted, QBR makes Costello look elite. If you look at passer rating, he's got a 143.24 that would rank 7th among Pac-12 QBs despite facing horrendous competition (106th in defense/122nd in pass efficiency defense Rice, 120th in defense/60th in pass efficiency defense UCLA, 115th in defense/115th in pass efficiency defense Arizona State). It strikes me - so far without the benefit of data points against good competition - as a very good performance for a redshirt freshman quarterback. But not sure what we can say beyond that.
5. In terms of the debate du jour, though, I am with those (almost every fan it seems) who want Costello to start against Utah. I hope he gets the chance to grow as the schedule gets tougher. By the way, I referenced performance-as-a-freshman above and Costello, who is two games away from qualifying for leaderboards, has been very good for a freshman. Georgia's Jake Fromm, Virginia Tech's Josh Jackson, UNLV's Armani Rogers, and Florida's Feleipe Franks is the exhaustive list of guys I'd say have proven more to date, and even then I suppose some may quibble with the last two.
6. Color me concerned about the Arcega-Whiteside injury. I continue to think he is our #1 receiving option, whether we are talking WR or TE or RB. If he's out as I assume, this is gut check time for Trent Irwin and the rest to really bring it against Utah. For what it's worth, Utah is 18th in scoring defense and 8th in pass efficiency defense. This is the biggest challenge our offense has faced since Colorado last year.
7. Justin Reid - I don't think the wow wow wow I gave Bryce Love above is too far off from what Reid deserves. That was a big-time impactful game, significantly affecting the outcome through two turnovers and ending up with 3.5 big plays (two interceptions, a pass defended, and half a tackle for loss) that showed great range. I know I'm biased because I said repeatedly before the season I think he is our best player and a top 100 draft pick, but I think he is putting production together over a multiple year period that is marking him as one of the top safeties in the nation.
8. Excited to see Alfieri get some more action and opportunity to make impact. I hope we are now going to have the old Alfieri back.
9. Shoutout to the Mike Tyler sack and Eric Cotton sack. I thought both of those were super timely and impactful in the game in keeping points off the board.
10. It's a weird thought given that we've had two satisfying wins in a row, but in a way I'm more bummed about the USC and SDSU losses than I was at the time. The realization of how good Washington (as I expected) and Notre Dame (as I thought possible), coupled with the fact we get Utah and Washington State on the road, is making me realize that even getting to 8 wins is going to be tough. One game at a time though: beat the Utes!
2. Any win is always very satisfying to me and any 30+ point scoring game always feels pretty good but before we get too excited about our offense I'd note that with Love putting in a performance for the ages and breaking off four 39+ runs (five 30+ runs) we still were held under Arizona State's scoring defense average. They came in surrendering 37 points per game, we scored 34. I did not consider this a very impressive refutation of any concerns we might have about our offense, especially considering our track record over the last year of beating up on bad defenses like this.
3. Nonetheless, I am starting to come to grips with a shocking realization: it is possible our offense might be better than our defense this year. Five games is starting to be a not insignificant sample and we currently rank 24th in the nation in scoring offense and 62nd in scoring defense. The offense has faced the #42, #66, #106, #115, and #120 scoring defenses. The defense has faced the #14, #39, #56, #65, and #129 scoring offenses. It is crystal clear that the defense has faced much tougher competition than the offense. Thus, as we start facing better defenses it is possible that our points scored/points allowed numbers start coming into closer alignment with expectations and the natural way of the world. But I think it's also possible that the delta between our points scored/points allowed numbers so far indicates something surprising about our team.
4. I keep trying to wrap my head around Costello's performance and keep coming to the same place: he has looked good and gotten the job done but it's tough to analyze beyond that until he faces a defense with a pulse. As somebody who likes to look at stats to get a reality check on what lying eyes might tell us I am a bit perplexed by the disparity in what the various metrics tell us. As others have noted, QBR makes Costello look elite. If you look at passer rating, he's got a 143.24 that would rank 7th among Pac-12 QBs despite facing horrendous competition (106th in defense/122nd in pass efficiency defense Rice, 120th in defense/60th in pass efficiency defense UCLA, 115th in defense/115th in pass efficiency defense Arizona State). It strikes me - so far without the benefit of data points against good competition - as a very good performance for a redshirt freshman quarterback. But not sure what we can say beyond that.
5. In terms of the debate du jour, though, I am with those (almost every fan it seems) who want Costello to start against Utah. I hope he gets the chance to grow as the schedule gets tougher. By the way, I referenced performance-as-a-freshman above and Costello, who is two games away from qualifying for leaderboards, has been very good for a freshman. Georgia's Jake Fromm, Virginia Tech's Josh Jackson, UNLV's Armani Rogers, and Florida's Feleipe Franks is the exhaustive list of guys I'd say have proven more to date, and even then I suppose some may quibble with the last two.
6. Color me concerned about the Arcega-Whiteside injury. I continue to think he is our #1 receiving option, whether we are talking WR or TE or RB. If he's out as I assume, this is gut check time for Trent Irwin and the rest to really bring it against Utah. For what it's worth, Utah is 18th in scoring defense and 8th in pass efficiency defense. This is the biggest challenge our offense has faced since Colorado last year.
7. Justin Reid - I don't think the wow wow wow I gave Bryce Love above is too far off from what Reid deserves. That was a big-time impactful game, significantly affecting the outcome through two turnovers and ending up with 3.5 big plays (two interceptions, a pass defended, and half a tackle for loss) that showed great range. I know I'm biased because I said repeatedly before the season I think he is our best player and a top 100 draft pick, but I think he is putting production together over a multiple year period that is marking him as one of the top safeties in the nation.
8. Excited to see Alfieri get some more action and opportunity to make impact. I hope we are now going to have the old Alfieri back.
9. Shoutout to the Mike Tyler sack and Eric Cotton sack. I thought both of those were super timely and impactful in the game in keeping points off the board.
10. It's a weird thought given that we've had two satisfying wins in a row, but in a way I'm more bummed about the USC and SDSU losses than I was at the time. The realization of how good Washington (as I expected) and Notre Dame (as I thought possible), coupled with the fact we get Utah and Washington State on the road, is making me realize that even getting to 8 wins is going to be tough. One game at a time though: beat the Utes!
