1. We are who we thought we were. This is one of the worst teams in Power Five football. I imagine some watching the game were surprised by the stat on the broadcast that Stanford has the longest active FBS losing streak in the nation. But long stretches between FBS wins is not new for us. From the end of 2019 to the pandemic season, we went 398 days in between wins. Come Friday (the day before our next game), we'll be at 370 days and counting in between wins over an FBS opponent. Going a year without beating a major college football team is something that has happened to Stanford fans twice in the last few years. Previously that kind of thing happened for us about once every generation (1947, 1960, 1983, 2006). It is very hard for national media and casual Stanford fans to grasp given Shaw's legendary lifetime achievements, but what he's done the last 3-4 years is worst stretch of football in Stanford history/worst current coach in America level of futility.
2. It seems silly to micro-analyze what's going on when the big picture remains so stark. I don't want to give the impression that what ails us is fixable. Nonetheless, it helps me understand and diagnose to crunch the results. The big story of our season has been the pitiful offense. It's not just turnovers and sacks, though those are big factors. The offense simply has not been anything like advertised. We knew it would need to carry the team and it hasn't been even close to being able to do so. At times it's even been worse than the defense. Last night was a case in point: the defense gave up 0.49 yards per play worse than Oregon's average while the offense gained 1.22 fewer yards per play than the Duck average. I would never let the defense off the hook as its miserable state the last half decade has been the prime driver of Stanford football's irrelevance, but the offense is equally culpable and far more disappointing this year.
3. The way we've been losing seems to perfectly encapsulate the plight of the bad team. From game to game, we can get some things right. But in the aggregate it's nowhere close to competitive and opponents can just pick how they want to beat us, leaving us to our pyrrhic victories. Once again the second half became a time for moral victories and stat padding. When the game was still being contested, the Ducks played with their food. Due to a combination of indiscipline, sloppiness, and officials routinely bailing Stanford out, Oregon had 135 penalty yards, nearly doubling the FBS average for penalty yards in a game in the first half alone. And yet still it was a 31-3 halftime score.
4. As in past losses, we had bright spots but who cares? The pass defense was the stingiest Oregon has faced other than Georgia and was closer to Georgia than to any other team and the stingiest we've been since the Vanderbilt game over a year ago. But Oregon could just pick the way it would beat us, which in this case was on the ground with a whopping 9.5 yards per carry, 71 percent more than the next worst run defense against Oregon this year (Cougs giving up 5.56 yards per carry, which was even worse than FCS Eastern Washington). We've regressed into the 2021 Utah/Cal games range of historically hapless run defense. The same whack-a-mole/pick your poison dynamic happened when we had the ball: we ran more effectively than anybody but Georgia has against them, but even with Oregon's very bad defense they had their way with us, holding us to the lowest (4.61) yards per play they've given up in nine games, thanks to a pitiful passing effort by Stanford.
5. Sorry, I use the word pitiful advisedly when describing our passing game last night. Unlike last week when McKee spun it when he could get the ball off, this was miserable even when he threw. He had a few good ones, like the touchdown to Higgins, but overall it was a crappy game. We had almost two yards per attempt and almost 20 passer rating points worse output than the next worst FBS opponent against Oregon this year. Folks, Oregon's pass defense sucks (111th in the nation even after containing us). This was awful by McKee and, as has been the case for non-Wilson receiving targets all year, the receivers and tight ends. McKee's Total QBR for the week was 108th of 120 QBs nationally. Especially given the opponent, this was a terrible showing. But even on the year writ large, a third of the way into our season the passing attack is nothing like we imagined. We're in the 40-50 range nationally in the major passing stats, pathetic given our personnel.
6. Shaw talked in the press conference that we have "options" for addressing these failings and later seemed to clarify that he is not talking about benching players and instead is focused on ways to start games faster. I don't really know what this means and if it has bearing on the slow mesh experiment. The offense has laid an egg to start the year and I don't have faith in the brain trust to clean it up to an acceptable level, though Yurosek and the receivers have been so bad that reversion to the mean offers some hope. Against Oregon, there were two bright spots. The obvious one is Casey Filkins. I don't think he's a world-beater, but he runs with patience, wiggles and fights for yards crucial for first downs all-too-difficult for us to come up with otherwise, offers a good receiving target, and plays with heart. He's #5 in the Pac-12 in yards from scrimmage per game, in the ballpark with Austin Jones' 2020 as our most significant back in the last half decade. This week's moving the chains (first down) list: Filkins (6), Wilson (3), Higgins (2), Tremayne (2), Humphreys, Yurosek, Roush, Bowman, Daniels, Reuben. The second bright spot is less obvious: PFF assesses that the beleaguered right side of the offensive line - dealing with Bragg's retirement, Hinton's continued absence, and Miller's new injury (I assume season-ending or close given Shaw being immediately definitive it will be a "weeks" thing - the right side graded nicely. In fact, our fourth string right tackle, redshirt freshman Jack Leyrer, played the entire game after the first three plays (coming in when Miller got hurt) and came out of last night (his collegiate debut outside of two field goal unit plays last week) with the highest PFF grade of any Stanford player on either side of the ball yesterday. Rogers also graded nicely. Way to go Leyrer!
7. There were also individual performance bright spots on defense. Last week I mentioned that I track impact plays and nobody had more than two against Washington. Against Oregon, Sinclair (tackle for loss to force a field goal, tackle for no gain on 2nd and 12, interception), Bailey (five good tackles given down and distance including a tackle for loss, QB hurry/hitting the QB's hand to force the interception), Bonner (two pass breakups, tackle for loss, another good tackle given down and distance), and Armitage (albeit mostly garbage time) all had 3+ impact plays. Going forward, I'd like Sinclair to take snaps from his (horrible) linebacker compatriots. Bailey looks to be on a very good trajectory and is a very exciting prospect I hope stays at Stanford long enough to play great football. Bonner is having a solid year (I'm eating some crow on that one, though not my skepticism of Kelly and Turner-Muhammad, sadly validated). Armitage is a hit and miss player but his role is growing weekly and the day Herron is gone and Armitage takes those snaps will be a good one for the defense.
8. Special teams is fine but not a major asset. It was great to see Karty get on the board with his first two field goals of the season and a 53 yarder is awesome to see. Sanborn was very busy but only did ok, with net punts of 46, 30 (ugh), 43, 32 (before the penalty was assessed), 38, 47, and 39. Farrell never seems to get out to the 25 on kick returns, which begs the questions of why we return at all and why he's back there. With Farrell last in the Pac-12 in return average and Barrow showing burst on his garbage time return, I'd like to see Barrow get some chances.
9. Game balls: Leyrer, Bailey, Karty, Heffernan
10. The big question for our season, to the extent anybody still retains hope, is what kind of attitude and resilience the players have. So far, we've had three straight losses in which we've seen effort as the team battles in the second half. But how sustainable is it when players see that their best isn't even close to good enough? There may be some initial signs of fraying discipline and composure. Herron, Fields, and Armitage all had bad personal fouls to keep the defense on the field. I also think I see signs of a loser's mentality ossifying - players celebrating individual achievements in blowout losses, coaches and players alike moving on from any sort of pissed off for greatness/righteous anger to focusing on individual triumphs/learning opportunities, etc. From what we've seen so far, I don't know if I'd say Shaw has lost the team or that they've given up, but I imagine it's close. And if you can't compete even when you're giving your all that's just as damning.
11. Shaw says Oregon State isn't a must win. In a sense he's right for the reason he says - every game is vital, they're all important. In a self-preservation sense he may be trying to downplay the calamity of individual losses. But based on his body language in recent press conferences and on the sidelines I think it's equally likely he's past gaming for his own survival and understands, whether consciously or subconsciously, that it's too late. I suspect he's running out the string this year and will reflect when the season is done on what he probably already understands: his time is past. Until then, fans face the classic loser's dilemma of hoping against hope for surprise wins while knowing that abject failure may make the decision that needs to happen blessedly clearer for any stubborn holdouts (whether Muir, university leadership, or Shaw himself).
2. It seems silly to micro-analyze what's going on when the big picture remains so stark. I don't want to give the impression that what ails us is fixable. Nonetheless, it helps me understand and diagnose to crunch the results. The big story of our season has been the pitiful offense. It's not just turnovers and sacks, though those are big factors. The offense simply has not been anything like advertised. We knew it would need to carry the team and it hasn't been even close to being able to do so. At times it's even been worse than the defense. Last night was a case in point: the defense gave up 0.49 yards per play worse than Oregon's average while the offense gained 1.22 fewer yards per play than the Duck average. I would never let the defense off the hook as its miserable state the last half decade has been the prime driver of Stanford football's irrelevance, but the offense is equally culpable and far more disappointing this year.
3. The way we've been losing seems to perfectly encapsulate the plight of the bad team. From game to game, we can get some things right. But in the aggregate it's nowhere close to competitive and opponents can just pick how they want to beat us, leaving us to our pyrrhic victories. Once again the second half became a time for moral victories and stat padding. When the game was still being contested, the Ducks played with their food. Due to a combination of indiscipline, sloppiness, and officials routinely bailing Stanford out, Oregon had 135 penalty yards, nearly doubling the FBS average for penalty yards in a game in the first half alone. And yet still it was a 31-3 halftime score.
4. As in past losses, we had bright spots but who cares? The pass defense was the stingiest Oregon has faced other than Georgia and was closer to Georgia than to any other team and the stingiest we've been since the Vanderbilt game over a year ago. But Oregon could just pick the way it would beat us, which in this case was on the ground with a whopping 9.5 yards per carry, 71 percent more than the next worst run defense against Oregon this year (Cougs giving up 5.56 yards per carry, which was even worse than FCS Eastern Washington). We've regressed into the 2021 Utah/Cal games range of historically hapless run defense. The same whack-a-mole/pick your poison dynamic happened when we had the ball: we ran more effectively than anybody but Georgia has against them, but even with Oregon's very bad defense they had their way with us, holding us to the lowest (4.61) yards per play they've given up in nine games, thanks to a pitiful passing effort by Stanford.
5. Sorry, I use the word pitiful advisedly when describing our passing game last night. Unlike last week when McKee spun it when he could get the ball off, this was miserable even when he threw. He had a few good ones, like the touchdown to Higgins, but overall it was a crappy game. We had almost two yards per attempt and almost 20 passer rating points worse output than the next worst FBS opponent against Oregon this year. Folks, Oregon's pass defense sucks (111th in the nation even after containing us). This was awful by McKee and, as has been the case for non-Wilson receiving targets all year, the receivers and tight ends. McKee's Total QBR for the week was 108th of 120 QBs nationally. Especially given the opponent, this was a terrible showing. But even on the year writ large, a third of the way into our season the passing attack is nothing like we imagined. We're in the 40-50 range nationally in the major passing stats, pathetic given our personnel.
6. Shaw talked in the press conference that we have "options" for addressing these failings and later seemed to clarify that he is not talking about benching players and instead is focused on ways to start games faster. I don't really know what this means and if it has bearing on the slow mesh experiment. The offense has laid an egg to start the year and I don't have faith in the brain trust to clean it up to an acceptable level, though Yurosek and the receivers have been so bad that reversion to the mean offers some hope. Against Oregon, there were two bright spots. The obvious one is Casey Filkins. I don't think he's a world-beater, but he runs with patience, wiggles and fights for yards crucial for first downs all-too-difficult for us to come up with otherwise, offers a good receiving target, and plays with heart. He's #5 in the Pac-12 in yards from scrimmage per game, in the ballpark with Austin Jones' 2020 as our most significant back in the last half decade. This week's moving the chains (first down) list: Filkins (6), Wilson (3), Higgins (2), Tremayne (2), Humphreys, Yurosek, Roush, Bowman, Daniels, Reuben. The second bright spot is less obvious: PFF assesses that the beleaguered right side of the offensive line - dealing with Bragg's retirement, Hinton's continued absence, and Miller's new injury (I assume season-ending or close given Shaw being immediately definitive it will be a "weeks" thing - the right side graded nicely. In fact, our fourth string right tackle, redshirt freshman Jack Leyrer, played the entire game after the first three plays (coming in when Miller got hurt) and came out of last night (his collegiate debut outside of two field goal unit plays last week) with the highest PFF grade of any Stanford player on either side of the ball yesterday. Rogers also graded nicely. Way to go Leyrer!
7. There were also individual performance bright spots on defense. Last week I mentioned that I track impact plays and nobody had more than two against Washington. Against Oregon, Sinclair (tackle for loss to force a field goal, tackle for no gain on 2nd and 12, interception), Bailey (five good tackles given down and distance including a tackle for loss, QB hurry/hitting the QB's hand to force the interception), Bonner (two pass breakups, tackle for loss, another good tackle given down and distance), and Armitage (albeit mostly garbage time) all had 3+ impact plays. Going forward, I'd like Sinclair to take snaps from his (horrible) linebacker compatriots. Bailey looks to be on a very good trajectory and is a very exciting prospect I hope stays at Stanford long enough to play great football. Bonner is having a solid year (I'm eating some crow on that one, though not my skepticism of Kelly and Turner-Muhammad, sadly validated). Armitage is a hit and miss player but his role is growing weekly and the day Herron is gone and Armitage takes those snaps will be a good one for the defense.
8. Special teams is fine but not a major asset. It was great to see Karty get on the board with his first two field goals of the season and a 53 yarder is awesome to see. Sanborn was very busy but only did ok, with net punts of 46, 30 (ugh), 43, 32 (before the penalty was assessed), 38, 47, and 39. Farrell never seems to get out to the 25 on kick returns, which begs the questions of why we return at all and why he's back there. With Farrell last in the Pac-12 in return average and Barrow showing burst on his garbage time return, I'd like to see Barrow get some chances.
9. Game balls: Leyrer, Bailey, Karty, Heffernan
10. The big question for our season, to the extent anybody still retains hope, is what kind of attitude and resilience the players have. So far, we've had three straight losses in which we've seen effort as the team battles in the second half. But how sustainable is it when players see that their best isn't even close to good enough? There may be some initial signs of fraying discipline and composure. Herron, Fields, and Armitage all had bad personal fouls to keep the defense on the field. I also think I see signs of a loser's mentality ossifying - players celebrating individual achievements in blowout losses, coaches and players alike moving on from any sort of pissed off for greatness/righteous anger to focusing on individual triumphs/learning opportunities, etc. From what we've seen so far, I don't know if I'd say Shaw has lost the team or that they've given up, but I imagine it's close. And if you can't compete even when you're giving your all that's just as damning.
11. Shaw says Oregon State isn't a must win. In a sense he's right for the reason he says - every game is vital, they're all important. In a self-preservation sense he may be trying to downplay the calamity of individual losses. But based on his body language in recent press conferences and on the sidelines I think it's equally likely he's past gaming for his own survival and understands, whether consciously or subconsciously, that it's too late. I suspect he's running out the string this year and will reflect when the season is done on what he probably already understands: his time is past. Until then, fans face the classic loser's dilemma of hoping against hope for surprise wins while knowing that abject failure may make the decision that needs to happen blessedly clearer for any stubborn holdouts (whether Muir, university leadership, or Shaw himself).
