1. The bottom line is that we're a terrible team that can't even keep it competitive with a very mediocre team that hadn't beat us since 2009. We may not finish the year a top 80 team. There have been 39 Stanford teams in my lifetime and I would rank this one #37. There isn't a defensible argument to put it top 35 given how bad the conference is compared to past 3-4 win seasons. #38 and #39 (Wiggin 1983 and Harris 2006) both got their coaches fired. The only things probably saving Shaw's job are the goodwill he's built up and that our athletic director and men's basketball coach are just as deserving of pink slips and it would surely be uncharacteristic to send them all packing. Given all this, there's no polishing the turd that is Stanford football. Nonetheless, there were silver linings in this storm cloud. They don't portend brighter days but do at least show that the team is fighting and hasn't given up.
2. Against Oregon State, we gained 4.7 yards per play. That's really bad - the worst anybody other than Idaho has done against the Beavers since October 2019. Oregon State's defense is terrible and in disarray, playing their first game since firing the defensive coordinator. But hey, it's better than we did against Kansas State, Washington, or Utah! Dark humor aside, clearly Stanford's offense is in a bad place right now. On defense, we gave up 6.2 yards per play. This is actually a fantastic effort, especially with Kelly, Manley, Herron, Miezan, and Fisk out. Oregon State is a balanced offense that is fringe top 20 in the nation. We held them to less than we allowed Arizona State, Washington State, and Utah in recent games, less than Oregon State's season average, and less than six of their nine opponents. The defense really battled and got above-average results out of it.
3. I think credit has to go to the coaches for adjustments on defense to get that kind of result. The most obvious seemed to be the use of 4-man defensive fronts. Lance Keneley and Andres Fox played a ton, and not at the expense of snaps for Gabe Reid and Jordan Fox. Instead, it seemed to my eyes (and one of the post-game press conference questions) that we changed the base defense. I'd be curious if others noticed the same thing. On paper, the front seven aside from Reid didn't do much but perhaps these adjustments helped others fill gaps (in PFF's view, our defensive backs were especially strong against the run). Regardless, the overall team run defense was surprisingly effective given its fecklessness all year and Oregon State's greatness in that dimension. We gave up 4.3 yards per carry allowed, one of the three stingiest run defense games we've had this year and clearly the most impressive given that it came against an arguable top five Power Five running game. Oregon State has had more yards per carry in 14 of their last 16 games and more yards rushing in ten of those, including in seven of the last eight. We really came to play against the run.
4. What held the defense back from a great game was the uncharacteristically (for this season) permissive pass defense. A 188.75 passer rating allowed and 10.3 yards per attempt allowed makes this the worst pass defense performance of the season, perhaps unsurprising given Kelly and Manley being out. A big chunk of that was the Wyrick missed tackle on Bradford's 67 yard touchdown, but big plays count and we've given up big plays in lots of games this season so that's not the whole story. Chance Nolan has some real efficiency in him (he torched USC and Utah even worse) but even adjusting for competition this was a pretty rough one for our pass defense. Coupled with the run defense performance it adds up to an above-average defensive performance overall rather than anything particularly good/great. But given how we looked against Utah, the injury absences, and the dire trajectory of this season it was a pleasant surprise to see the defense battle.
5. The individual performances that stood out were Reid, Toomer, and Williams for their contributions to run defense. Toomer in particular had numerous run stops (as well as one on a pass near the line of scrimmage to go along with a pass defended). I want to give him the game ball but ultimately I think his contributions made Oregon State expend more effort without necessarily changing the scoreboard. Reid, on the other hand, notched three tackles for loss and in particular got back to back run stops to force a turnover on downs immediately following our first touchdown. His night had a bad blemish on his last tackle for loss as the personal foul was dumb and costly (not situationally since the game was effectively over but in the sense of keeping points off the board). In real time I felt it was an appalling sign of a great guy/leader losing his cool in a fifth consecutive loss in a demoralizing season (echoes of Leigh Torrence in the 2004 Big Game) but I'm willing to accept Shaw's explanation that Reid legitimately got lost on the field and didn't mean to do it. In any case, his contributions earlier in the game kept points off the board and he remains the best player on our defense, if not team.
6. There is less to be pleasant about on offense but I'll highlight three things. First, Michael Wilson is a freaking warrior. He's my favorite player on this team and it's so nice to see him back out there. Despite the passing offense freak show we rolled out there, Wilson still managed three first downs. That's heroic. The yards after catch on the 3rd and 17, long after the game's result was settled, is one of the all-time never give up plays in the history of our most horrendous teams. Maybe the biggest silver lining of this whole season is that future NFL player (IMHO) Wilson may now be likely to come back next year. Second, the fourth quarter touchdown drive Wilson extended demonstrated fight and grit more generally. All 11 players contributed on that drive and we mustered moments in the passing game, running game, two 3rd down conversions, a 4th down conversion, Sanders and Plautz both executing, and a touchdown conversion in the red zone. Nobody should say this team has given up. Third, the run game continues to show modest signs of life. We had 5.0 yards per carry, the second best this season, and considering that Oregon State has been better at run defense this year than Vanderbilt and USC a case can be made that this is the high point of the run game this season. To do it mostly without Bragg and with the clown car QB situation taking away the passing threat is impressive. Despite those headwinds we had almost a yard more per carry than what the Beavers allow on average this season. The run game is still not good but it's taking steps.
7. Unsurprisingly, the passing game struggled. A 78.16 passer rating is our worst since the notorious San Diego State debacle in 2017. It was the most dominant Oregon State pass defense game against a Power Five opponent in the last half decade. There's no sugarcoating the state of disrepair of the passing game and how hopeless it is without McKee. I will say that I think Shaw is right that the timing of Patu's injury was quite unfortunate as Patu did lead an excellent touchdown drive to start the second half as his last drive of the game (season?). It would have been nice to see if he could have built on that, especially after the turnover on downs that could have opened up a momentum swing. Instead.....Plautz. I continue to be flabbergasted at the utter disrespect we show Isaiah Sanders. The guy, who we scream to the media at every chance is the consummate Stanford Man and future leader par excellence, battles and delivers extremely reliably in what we ask him to do - three rushing first downs in this game despite everybody knowing what's coming! And yet we still won't let him play QB even when the alternative is the fifth string walk-on. For the umpteenth time, this is a guy who has a 307 yards of offense performance as QB1 against a 10 win major college football team and a 390 yards of offense performance against another major college football team. What the ****?!?!!? How are Patu and Plautz what we're putting out there ahead of Sanders? Does he have a torn rotator cuff or something?
8. This is not going to go down as a great year for Alamar. I think our special teams are still above-average but we haven't busted huge plays, do not gain a field position advantage in the punting game, and commit a staggering amount of penalties on special teams. Multiple illegal formation penalties on punts in a season? Really? The one yesterday got bailed out by Sanborn's 51 yarder pinning the Beavers at the 3 yard line (even before the penalty Sanborn's 37 yarder to the 12 would have been ok), unless, I suppose, we lined up illegally on purpose to put Sanborn in a more advantageous position. We also had a field goal blocked yesterday.
9. Game balls: Wilson, Reid, Sanborn, Anderson
10. The 124th Big Game, assuming Cal can field a team, shapes up to be a pitiful affair. Maybe a historian can tell us if both teams have ever both been this bad at the same time. I'm pretty sure this is hands-down the worst pairing of my lifetime. Given the up-in-the-air health of both McKee and Patu it's hard to know what Stanford will even roll out there. At the current state of the program any win, especially a rivalry game for a storied trophy, looms large. Cal, the second worst team on our schedule, is a golden opportunity to give the players a chance to do the C-House chant in a season they've only been able to do it a few times and approaching a future for the program where it doesn't seem likely the chances will become all that more frequent. I'll never root against Stanford and won't start on Saturday but the downside of facing such an eminently beatable team is that any lipstick on this pig sets the program back from the reckoning that needs to happen in response to the utterly indefensible state of the program.
2. Against Oregon State, we gained 4.7 yards per play. That's really bad - the worst anybody other than Idaho has done against the Beavers since October 2019. Oregon State's defense is terrible and in disarray, playing their first game since firing the defensive coordinator. But hey, it's better than we did against Kansas State, Washington, or Utah! Dark humor aside, clearly Stanford's offense is in a bad place right now. On defense, we gave up 6.2 yards per play. This is actually a fantastic effort, especially with Kelly, Manley, Herron, Miezan, and Fisk out. Oregon State is a balanced offense that is fringe top 20 in the nation. We held them to less than we allowed Arizona State, Washington State, and Utah in recent games, less than Oregon State's season average, and less than six of their nine opponents. The defense really battled and got above-average results out of it.
3. I think credit has to go to the coaches for adjustments on defense to get that kind of result. The most obvious seemed to be the use of 4-man defensive fronts. Lance Keneley and Andres Fox played a ton, and not at the expense of snaps for Gabe Reid and Jordan Fox. Instead, it seemed to my eyes (and one of the post-game press conference questions) that we changed the base defense. I'd be curious if others noticed the same thing. On paper, the front seven aside from Reid didn't do much but perhaps these adjustments helped others fill gaps (in PFF's view, our defensive backs were especially strong against the run). Regardless, the overall team run defense was surprisingly effective given its fecklessness all year and Oregon State's greatness in that dimension. We gave up 4.3 yards per carry allowed, one of the three stingiest run defense games we've had this year and clearly the most impressive given that it came against an arguable top five Power Five running game. Oregon State has had more yards per carry in 14 of their last 16 games and more yards rushing in ten of those, including in seven of the last eight. We really came to play against the run.
4. What held the defense back from a great game was the uncharacteristically (for this season) permissive pass defense. A 188.75 passer rating allowed and 10.3 yards per attempt allowed makes this the worst pass defense performance of the season, perhaps unsurprising given Kelly and Manley being out. A big chunk of that was the Wyrick missed tackle on Bradford's 67 yard touchdown, but big plays count and we've given up big plays in lots of games this season so that's not the whole story. Chance Nolan has some real efficiency in him (he torched USC and Utah even worse) but even adjusting for competition this was a pretty rough one for our pass defense. Coupled with the run defense performance it adds up to an above-average defensive performance overall rather than anything particularly good/great. But given how we looked against Utah, the injury absences, and the dire trajectory of this season it was a pleasant surprise to see the defense battle.
5. The individual performances that stood out were Reid, Toomer, and Williams for their contributions to run defense. Toomer in particular had numerous run stops (as well as one on a pass near the line of scrimmage to go along with a pass defended). I want to give him the game ball but ultimately I think his contributions made Oregon State expend more effort without necessarily changing the scoreboard. Reid, on the other hand, notched three tackles for loss and in particular got back to back run stops to force a turnover on downs immediately following our first touchdown. His night had a bad blemish on his last tackle for loss as the personal foul was dumb and costly (not situationally since the game was effectively over but in the sense of keeping points off the board). In real time I felt it was an appalling sign of a great guy/leader losing his cool in a fifth consecutive loss in a demoralizing season (echoes of Leigh Torrence in the 2004 Big Game) but I'm willing to accept Shaw's explanation that Reid legitimately got lost on the field and didn't mean to do it. In any case, his contributions earlier in the game kept points off the board and he remains the best player on our defense, if not team.
6. There is less to be pleasant about on offense but I'll highlight three things. First, Michael Wilson is a freaking warrior. He's my favorite player on this team and it's so nice to see him back out there. Despite the passing offense freak show we rolled out there, Wilson still managed three first downs. That's heroic. The yards after catch on the 3rd and 17, long after the game's result was settled, is one of the all-time never give up plays in the history of our most horrendous teams. Maybe the biggest silver lining of this whole season is that future NFL player (IMHO) Wilson may now be likely to come back next year. Second, the fourth quarter touchdown drive Wilson extended demonstrated fight and grit more generally. All 11 players contributed on that drive and we mustered moments in the passing game, running game, two 3rd down conversions, a 4th down conversion, Sanders and Plautz both executing, and a touchdown conversion in the red zone. Nobody should say this team has given up. Third, the run game continues to show modest signs of life. We had 5.0 yards per carry, the second best this season, and considering that Oregon State has been better at run defense this year than Vanderbilt and USC a case can be made that this is the high point of the run game this season. To do it mostly without Bragg and with the clown car QB situation taking away the passing threat is impressive. Despite those headwinds we had almost a yard more per carry than what the Beavers allow on average this season. The run game is still not good but it's taking steps.
7. Unsurprisingly, the passing game struggled. A 78.16 passer rating is our worst since the notorious San Diego State debacle in 2017. It was the most dominant Oregon State pass defense game against a Power Five opponent in the last half decade. There's no sugarcoating the state of disrepair of the passing game and how hopeless it is without McKee. I will say that I think Shaw is right that the timing of Patu's injury was quite unfortunate as Patu did lead an excellent touchdown drive to start the second half as his last drive of the game (season?). It would have been nice to see if he could have built on that, especially after the turnover on downs that could have opened up a momentum swing. Instead.....Plautz. I continue to be flabbergasted at the utter disrespect we show Isaiah Sanders. The guy, who we scream to the media at every chance is the consummate Stanford Man and future leader par excellence, battles and delivers extremely reliably in what we ask him to do - three rushing first downs in this game despite everybody knowing what's coming! And yet we still won't let him play QB even when the alternative is the fifth string walk-on. For the umpteenth time, this is a guy who has a 307 yards of offense performance as QB1 against a 10 win major college football team and a 390 yards of offense performance against another major college football team. What the ****?!?!!? How are Patu and Plautz what we're putting out there ahead of Sanders? Does he have a torn rotator cuff or something?
8. This is not going to go down as a great year for Alamar. I think our special teams are still above-average but we haven't busted huge plays, do not gain a field position advantage in the punting game, and commit a staggering amount of penalties on special teams. Multiple illegal formation penalties on punts in a season? Really? The one yesterday got bailed out by Sanborn's 51 yarder pinning the Beavers at the 3 yard line (even before the penalty Sanborn's 37 yarder to the 12 would have been ok), unless, I suppose, we lined up illegally on purpose to put Sanborn in a more advantageous position. We also had a field goal blocked yesterday.
9. Game balls: Wilson, Reid, Sanborn, Anderson
10. The 124th Big Game, assuming Cal can field a team, shapes up to be a pitiful affair. Maybe a historian can tell us if both teams have ever both been this bad at the same time. I'm pretty sure this is hands-down the worst pairing of my lifetime. Given the up-in-the-air health of both McKee and Patu it's hard to know what Stanford will even roll out there. At the current state of the program any win, especially a rivalry game for a storied trophy, looms large. Cal, the second worst team on our schedule, is a golden opportunity to give the players a chance to do the C-House chant in a season they've only been able to do it a few times and approaching a future for the program where it doesn't seem likely the chances will become all that more frequent. I'll never root against Stanford and won't start on Saturday but the downside of facing such an eminently beatable team is that any lipstick on this pig sets the program back from the reckoning that needs to happen in response to the utterly indefensible state of the program.
