1. The inescapable bottom line for Stanford football is that we are deep into the spiral of a catastrophic system-wide failure that requires fundamentally changing the way we operate. We can debate the details of what needs changing most urgently - priorities and sequencing - but the fact that we have catastrophically and comprehensively failed seems undeniable. Nobody living on Planet Earth can think anything is going right in the Taylor era. We keep plumbing depths I don't think anybody thought possible, now #115 in Sagarin. When @BigJohn043 shared computer algorithm data going all the way back to 1960, the worst Stanford teams in history were the winless 1960 team at #109 and the 1983 and 2006 teams at #104. There has never been a time in history in which there were more teams better than Stanford than is the case right now. Going back to 1960, our worst two year stretches were being #109 and #83 in 1960-1961 and being #89 and #87 in Shaw's last two years in 2021-2022. Now in Taylor's first two years we have set a new unequivocal low at #101 and #115. It seemed a given after last year that we had found bottom and could embark on the more rewarding process of slowly building. Instead, we keep getting worse and it's unclear when we will hit rock bottom considering that the performance keeps declining and recruiting is struggling enough that it appears likely the roster will be even less talented next year than it is this year.
2. Even by our standards, yesterday was heinous, the worst game of our season in terms of scoring margin relative to opponent. [Our games this year have been befitting the #91, #65, #27, #115, #158, #156, #162, #116, and #201 teams in the nation.] On some level, this is unsurprising given that we have been at a consistently abysmal level for over a month and were playing a 9am body clock game across the country, a circumstance that empirically essentially guarantees relatively poor performance for Stanford. Still, when you are already playing like the worst team in Stanford history fans could be forgiven for thinking it couldn't get worse. Nope. It got worse. This raises the specter of self-belief being completely destroyed, morale being in the toilet, and the dreaded situation of a team giving up on themselves/each other/the coaches. Taylor claims he didn't see that yesterday, but losing by 31 to a team as mediocre as NC State raises the question. #91 Wake Forest, #106 Northern Illinois, and #144 Louisiana Tech kept it within 10 against these guys and even #149 Western Carolina was only 17 back. I don't think you can be trying and lose to NC State by 31. This team is not only lost but deeply depressed. It's becoming clear our staff doesn't have a clue how to turn this around.
3. The argument we hear from some is that it needs to be a turnaround via the transfer portal and that it is focusing on the wrong thing to call for a change in coaching; others go further and argue our success is impossible. What these points of view miss is that more than one thing can be holding us back and until we have credible coaching there is no way to know what the talent on the roster can do. When the program reaches depths like this it is hard to argue anything isn't a problem and I find it incredible to hear arguments the coaching isn't a problem. I fully understand the headwinds we face but the idea this roster is #115 talent bad does not hold water. By recruiting rankings we are top 50. We will likely be top 50 in terms of how many players on the 2024 roster play in the NFL. By objective measures of returning production we were top five. I think people who question whether any coach could do better do not understand how bad #115 is. Honestly, it shouldn't come as a complete shock to see this staff fail. We have a head coach who had never been a major college football head coach a day in his life, a defensive coordinator who had never been a defensive coordinator a day in his life, and an entire offensive staff that had combined for zero days as major college football position coaches. In retrospect it seems we (yes, including me) may have deluded ourselves into thinking this was a serious staff.
4. It remains to be seen whether this offseason sees self-reflection and changes that reflect seriousness of purpose as a program but anything short of fundamental change should raise doubts. I do not think it would be excessive or premature to replace the athletic director and entire football coaching staff, double the number of incoming transfers, and pursue a revenue sharing model in line with the House settlement back pay formula. I do think it is unlikely we see all of that, making the debates about priorities and sequencing highly salient. I also think that this catastrophic failure coming at an inflection point for the sport on the cusp of revenue sharing raises questions about how much change and how many financial sacrifices Stanford can accept at once. This is an uncertain, depressing time. But Stanford has to do something and something fundamental. They won't deserve even the few hundred fans they do have if this off-season is another one of just letting Taylor pursue his theory of the case.
2. Even by our standards, yesterday was heinous, the worst game of our season in terms of scoring margin relative to opponent. [Our games this year have been befitting the #91, #65, #27, #115, #158, #156, #162, #116, and #201 teams in the nation.] On some level, this is unsurprising given that we have been at a consistently abysmal level for over a month and were playing a 9am body clock game across the country, a circumstance that empirically essentially guarantees relatively poor performance for Stanford. Still, when you are already playing like the worst team in Stanford history fans could be forgiven for thinking it couldn't get worse. Nope. It got worse. This raises the specter of self-belief being completely destroyed, morale being in the toilet, and the dreaded situation of a team giving up on themselves/each other/the coaches. Taylor claims he didn't see that yesterday, but losing by 31 to a team as mediocre as NC State raises the question. #91 Wake Forest, #106 Northern Illinois, and #144 Louisiana Tech kept it within 10 against these guys and even #149 Western Carolina was only 17 back. I don't think you can be trying and lose to NC State by 31. This team is not only lost but deeply depressed. It's becoming clear our staff doesn't have a clue how to turn this around.
3. The argument we hear from some is that it needs to be a turnaround via the transfer portal and that it is focusing on the wrong thing to call for a change in coaching; others go further and argue our success is impossible. What these points of view miss is that more than one thing can be holding us back and until we have credible coaching there is no way to know what the talent on the roster can do. When the program reaches depths like this it is hard to argue anything isn't a problem and I find it incredible to hear arguments the coaching isn't a problem. I fully understand the headwinds we face but the idea this roster is #115 talent bad does not hold water. By recruiting rankings we are top 50. We will likely be top 50 in terms of how many players on the 2024 roster play in the NFL. By objective measures of returning production we were top five. I think people who question whether any coach could do better do not understand how bad #115 is. Honestly, it shouldn't come as a complete shock to see this staff fail. We have a head coach who had never been a major college football head coach a day in his life, a defensive coordinator who had never been a defensive coordinator a day in his life, and an entire offensive staff that had combined for zero days as major college football position coaches. In retrospect it seems we (yes, including me) may have deluded ourselves into thinking this was a serious staff.
4. It remains to be seen whether this offseason sees self-reflection and changes that reflect seriousness of purpose as a program but anything short of fundamental change should raise doubts. I do not think it would be excessive or premature to replace the athletic director and entire football coaching staff, double the number of incoming transfers, and pursue a revenue sharing model in line with the House settlement back pay formula. I do think it is unlikely we see all of that, making the debates about priorities and sequencing highly salient. I also think that this catastrophic failure coming at an inflection point for the sport on the cusp of revenue sharing raises questions about how much change and how many financial sacrifices Stanford can accept at once. This is an uncertain, depressing time. But Stanford has to do something and something fundamental. They won't deserve even the few hundred fans they do have if this off-season is another one of just letting Taylor pursue his theory of the case.
