I imagine most here would agree that the biggest wild card affecting how good our team is in 2017 will be the quality of QB play. My personal view is that almost across the board when it comes to position groups for the 2016 and 2017 teams Stanford is at least above average for the conference (I'd put WR as a bit below average) but QB being an exception is quite meaningful, it being the most important position and all. In 2016, we saw that above average pretty much everywhere and below average at QB led to 9 regular season wins, 10 total wins, and #12 in the final AP poll. I think it is the case that we will have a very good team in 2017 even if QB play is not good but having good QB play could make this team elite.
With two experienced QBs and a highly-touted redshirt freshman, I think we can write off any chance of Davis Mills playing barring major developments to include injuries. So there are three candidates: a redshirt junior who was thoroughly mediocre against definitively the easiest schedule of any Power Five QB and is coming off a major knee injury, a redshirt senior who was bad against one of the hardest schedules of any Power Five QB, and a redshirt freshman who reportedly has potential but has not started to separate himself from the veterans. In theory whoever it is will be the best of the three, although confidence in that probably has to be somewhat less than absolute given our offensive/QB track record. If so, and given the experience under the belt for the first two candidates as well as the expected improvement (I think substantial) in our offensive line play, one can reasonably expect some degree of improvement from our QB position compared to 2016. On the other hand, the conference seems like it may be better at QB in 2017 than it was in 2016. I think below average is still the best bet. Cracking the top 8 at QB may be a fair result for us.
I should probably leave it at that and solicit thoughts. But for some reason I'm interested in doing some additional research to see what kind of improvement we might expect from the two veteran candidates as I suspect they have the inside track. What is the Pac-12 experience with second starting seasons for third/fourth year guys who were in the 120-134 range of QB efficiency as first year starters? Here are all the guys who fit that bill and what they did the next season:
Ryan Katz - didn't start
Jon Hays (JC transfer though) - started three games and played in six, 131.7 rating
Connor Halliday - 145.0 rating
Small sample, not sure we should draw much, but does seem further evidence for measured expectations, in case anybody wasn't there already.
Interestingly, Arizona State's Manny Wilkins, Arizona's Brandon Dawkins, and Utah's Troy Williams are all also in this category - fourth or fifth year guys in 2017 who were in the 120-134 range in 2016. As with our guys, it's not clear all those guys will start in 2017.
With two experienced QBs and a highly-touted redshirt freshman, I think we can write off any chance of Davis Mills playing barring major developments to include injuries. So there are three candidates: a redshirt junior who was thoroughly mediocre against definitively the easiest schedule of any Power Five QB and is coming off a major knee injury, a redshirt senior who was bad against one of the hardest schedules of any Power Five QB, and a redshirt freshman who reportedly has potential but has not started to separate himself from the veterans. In theory whoever it is will be the best of the three, although confidence in that probably has to be somewhat less than absolute given our offensive/QB track record. If so, and given the experience under the belt for the first two candidates as well as the expected improvement (I think substantial) in our offensive line play, one can reasonably expect some degree of improvement from our QB position compared to 2016. On the other hand, the conference seems like it may be better at QB in 2017 than it was in 2016. I think below average is still the best bet. Cracking the top 8 at QB may be a fair result for us.
I should probably leave it at that and solicit thoughts. But for some reason I'm interested in doing some additional research to see what kind of improvement we might expect from the two veteran candidates as I suspect they have the inside track. What is the Pac-12 experience with second starting seasons for third/fourth year guys who were in the 120-134 range of QB efficiency as first year starters? Here are all the guys who fit that bill and what they did the next season:
Ryan Katz - didn't start
Jon Hays (JC transfer though) - started three games and played in six, 131.7 rating
Connor Halliday - 145.0 rating
Small sample, not sure we should draw much, but does seem further evidence for measured expectations, in case anybody wasn't there already.
Interestingly, Arizona State's Manny Wilkins, Arizona's Brandon Dawkins, and Utah's Troy Williams are all also in this category - fourth or fifth year guys in 2017 who were in the 120-134 range in 2016. As with our guys, it's not clear all those guys will start in 2017.
