A discussion on another board got a bee in my bonnet about the ground truth on Stanford's propensity to injury in recent years and I couldn't get it out of my bonnet without empirical observations. With full acknowledgement of the sbortcuts/flaws/blind spots in this approach, here is a list of every Pac-12 team since 2014 ranked by number of games missed by players in their season-end top 15 for snaps on either offense or defense:
1. 2021 Washington - 61 (12 games) - 5.08
2. 2017 UCLA - 54 (12 games) - 4.50
3. 2020 Washington State - 16 (4 games) - 4.00
4. 2021 Arizona State - 50 (13 games) - 3.85
5. 2016 Arizona State - 46 (12 games) - 3.83
6. 2021 Oregon - 51 (14 games) - 3.64
7. 2019 USC - 47 (13 games) - 3.62
8. 2019 Stanford - 43 (12 games) - 3.58
9. 2020 Colorado - 21 (6 games) - 3.50
9. 2016 Oregon - 42 (12 games) - 3.50
11. 2016 Utah - 45 (13 games) - 3.46
12. 2016 Arizona - 41 (12 games) - 3.42
13. 2017 Arizona State - 44 (13 games) - 3.38
14. 2015 Oregon State - 40 (12 games) - 3.33
15. 2021 Cal - 38 (12 games) - 3.17
15. 2016 Oregon State - 38 (12 games) - 3.17
15. 2021 Stanford - 38 (12 games) - 3.17
18. 2017 Oregon State - 37 (12 games) - 3.08
18. 2016 UCLA - 37 (12 games) - 3.08
20. 2015 Oregon - 39 (13 games) - 3.00
20. 2020 Oregon State - 21 (7 games) - 3.00
20. 2014 Washington - 42 (14 games) - 3.00
20. 2014 Washington State - 36 (12 games) - 3.00
24. 2018 USC - 35 (12 games) - 2.92
25. 2017 USC - 40 (14 games) - 2.86
26. 2019 Cal - 37 (13 games) - 2.85
26. 2018 Stanford - 37 (13 games) - 2.85
28. 2019 Colorado - 34 (12 games) - 2.83
28. 2021 USC - 34 (12 games) - 2.83
30. 2020 Cal - 11 (4 games) - 2.75
31. 2017 Utah - 35 (13 games) - 2.69
32. 2021 Arizona - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
32. 2021 Colorado - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
32. 2014 Oregon State - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
32. 2019 Oregon State - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
36. 2015 USC - 36 (14 games) - 2.57
37. 2018 Cal - 33 (13 games) - 2.54
37. 2017 Oregon - 33 (13 games) - 2.54
39. 2018 Colorado - 30 (12 games) - 2.50
39. 2017 Stanford - 35 (14 games) - 2.50
39. 2020 USC - 15 (6 games) - 2.50
42. 2017 Washington - 32 (13 games) - 2.46
43. 2020 Utah - 12 (5 games) - 2.40
44. 2015 Arizona - 31 (13 games) - 2.38
45. 2018 Utah - 33 (14 games) - 2.36
46. 2017 Colorado - 28 (12 games) - 2.33
47. 2017 Arizona - 30 (13 games) - 2.31
47. 2015 Colorado - 30 (13 games) - 2.31
47. 2014 Utah - 30 (13 games) - 2.31
50. 2018 Oregon State - 27 (12 games) - 2.25
50. 2015 Utah - 27 (12 games) - 2.25
50. 2019 Washington - 27 (12 games) - 2.25
53. 2016 Stanford - 29 (13 games) - 2.23
54. 2018 Washington - 31 (14 games) - 2.21
55. 2016 Cal - 26 (12 games) - 2.17
55. 2018 UCLA - 26 (12 games) - 2.17
57. 2020 UCLA - 15 (7 games) - 2.14
57. 2021 Utah - 30 (14 games) - 2.14
59. 2014 Cal - 25 (12 games) - 2.08
59. 2017 Cal - 25 (12 games) - 2.08
61. 2014 Arizona - 29 (14 games) - 2.07
62. 2020 Arizona - 10 (5 games) - 2.00
63. 2019 UCLA - 23 (12 games) - 1.92
64. 2016 Washington - 26 (14 games) - 1.86
65. 2019 Arizona State - 24 (13 games) - 1.85
65. 2021 Washington State - 24 (13 games) - 1.85
67. 2018 Arizona - 22 (12 games) - 1.83
68. 2014 Oregon - 27 (15 games) - 1.80
69. 2018 Arizona State - 23 (13 games) - 1.77
70. 2014 Colorado - 21 (12 games) - 1.75
70. 2020 Washington - 7 (4 games) - 1.75
72. 2016 Colorado - 24 (14 games) - 1.71
73. 2014 Arizona State - 22 (13 games) - 1.69
73. 2015 Cal - 22 (13 games) - 1.69
73. 2015 Washington - 22 (13 games) - 1.69
76. 2014 UCLA - 21 (13 games) - 1.62
76. 2015 UCLA - 21 (13 games) - 1.62
78. 2019 Oregon - 22 (14 games) - 1.57
78. 2020 Oregon - 11 (7 games) - 1.57
80. 2015 Arizona State - 20 (13 games) - 1.54
81. 2020 Stanford - 9 (6 games) - 1.50
82. 2018 Oregon - 19 (13 games) - 1.46
82. 2021 Oregon State - 19 (13 games) - 1.46
82. 2014 USC - 19 (13 games) - 1.46
85. 2019 Arizona - 17 (12 games) - 1.42
86. 2016 USC - 17 (13 games) - 1.31
86. 2015 Washington State - 17 (13 games) - 1.31
88. 2020 Arizona State - 5 (4 games) - 1.25
89. 2017 Washington State - 15 (13 games) - 1.15
90. 2019 Utah - 14 (14 games) - 1.00
91. 2015 Stanford - 13 (14 games) - 0.93
92. 2014 Stanford - 12 (13 games) - 0.92
92. 2021 UCLA - 11 (12 games) - 0.92
94. 2016 Washington State - 11 (13 games) - 0.85
95. 2019 Washington State - 10 (13 games) - 0.77
96. 2018 Washington State - 9 (13 games) - 0.69
Observations:
* Shannon Turley was fired in April 2019. It is impossible not to draw a line between that date and a drop-off in Stanford's strength and conditioning but the propensity toward injury (or at least absences of contributing players) started at the tail end of Turley's tenure. The 2014, 2015, and 2016 teams were all healthier than the Pac-12 norm, with 2014 and 2015 spectacularly so. But 2016 was hovering around the median and then 2017 flipped over to the other side of the median. Turley's last team, 2018, was his most injury-prone.
* Still, the drop-off after that is eye-popping. 2019, as I don't need to remind anybody, was catastrophic in terms of injuries. 2020 was, of course a weird year for everybody and less comparable to all the other data points, but for what it's worth we stayed healthy for that half season. But then the only other full season without Turley beside 2019 was back to being very injury-prone. Part of the reason I wanted to do this analysis was to see if our coaches are right about all the rotten injury luck in 2021. In a word: yes. Last year was bottom 16 percent of Pac-12 seasons in terms of number of games missed by the top contributors.
* The question all of us have to be asking is the extent to which rotten injury seasons are pure luck or reflective of strength/weakness/scheme/playcalling/etc. such that certain programs can be expected to be more/less injury-prone heading into a season. One way that occurs to me to think about propensity to injury within programs over time is to look at which teams have been more or less injury-prone over the course of this entire sample. Here's what I found in terms of the team ranking over the full sweep: Oregon State (2.67), Washington (2.58), USC (2.51), Arizona State (2.45), Oregon (2.42), Cal (2.38), Colorado (2.37), Utah (2.31), Arizona (2.28), UCLA (2.24), Stanford (2.23), Washington State (1.36). Two things emerge: Washington State is sui generis, simply playing another sport than everybody else given the way they play (which incidentally is an interesting data point for those worried about injuries in sports), and otherwise these things seem to generally smooth out over time. Teams can be expected to be missing 2.37 major contributors per game but of course there is variance such that in a given season a team may experience considerably more or less luck than that.
* To my mind, this research bolsters Shaw's narrative. The last two full seasons for Stanford have been inordinately unlucky in terms of missed games by key contributors and there can be a reasonable expectation of reversion to the mean going forward. We can expect about one more key contributor per game than we had in the two seasons that serve as the major cases against Shaw.
* It would be a separate analysis to assess how much injuries are tied to team performance. That is, it's not clear how many wins (if it's even one) having one more key contributor per game would produce. Now that I have this data that might be the next project.
1. 2021 Washington - 61 (12 games) - 5.08
2. 2017 UCLA - 54 (12 games) - 4.50
3. 2020 Washington State - 16 (4 games) - 4.00
4. 2021 Arizona State - 50 (13 games) - 3.85
5. 2016 Arizona State - 46 (12 games) - 3.83
6. 2021 Oregon - 51 (14 games) - 3.64
7. 2019 USC - 47 (13 games) - 3.62
8. 2019 Stanford - 43 (12 games) - 3.58
9. 2020 Colorado - 21 (6 games) - 3.50
9. 2016 Oregon - 42 (12 games) - 3.50
11. 2016 Utah - 45 (13 games) - 3.46
12. 2016 Arizona - 41 (12 games) - 3.42
13. 2017 Arizona State - 44 (13 games) - 3.38
14. 2015 Oregon State - 40 (12 games) - 3.33
15. 2021 Cal - 38 (12 games) - 3.17
15. 2016 Oregon State - 38 (12 games) - 3.17
15. 2021 Stanford - 38 (12 games) - 3.17
18. 2017 Oregon State - 37 (12 games) - 3.08
18. 2016 UCLA - 37 (12 games) - 3.08
20. 2015 Oregon - 39 (13 games) - 3.00
20. 2020 Oregon State - 21 (7 games) - 3.00
20. 2014 Washington - 42 (14 games) - 3.00
20. 2014 Washington State - 36 (12 games) - 3.00
24. 2018 USC - 35 (12 games) - 2.92
25. 2017 USC - 40 (14 games) - 2.86
26. 2019 Cal - 37 (13 games) - 2.85
26. 2018 Stanford - 37 (13 games) - 2.85
28. 2019 Colorado - 34 (12 games) - 2.83
28. 2021 USC - 34 (12 games) - 2.83
30. 2020 Cal - 11 (4 games) - 2.75
31. 2017 Utah - 35 (13 games) - 2.69
32. 2021 Arizona - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
32. 2021 Colorado - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
32. 2014 Oregon State - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
32. 2019 Oregon State - 32 (12 games) - 2.67
36. 2015 USC - 36 (14 games) - 2.57
37. 2018 Cal - 33 (13 games) - 2.54
37. 2017 Oregon - 33 (13 games) - 2.54
39. 2018 Colorado - 30 (12 games) - 2.50
39. 2017 Stanford - 35 (14 games) - 2.50
39. 2020 USC - 15 (6 games) - 2.50
42. 2017 Washington - 32 (13 games) - 2.46
43. 2020 Utah - 12 (5 games) - 2.40
44. 2015 Arizona - 31 (13 games) - 2.38
45. 2018 Utah - 33 (14 games) - 2.36
46. 2017 Colorado - 28 (12 games) - 2.33
47. 2017 Arizona - 30 (13 games) - 2.31
47. 2015 Colorado - 30 (13 games) - 2.31
47. 2014 Utah - 30 (13 games) - 2.31
50. 2018 Oregon State - 27 (12 games) - 2.25
50. 2015 Utah - 27 (12 games) - 2.25
50. 2019 Washington - 27 (12 games) - 2.25
53. 2016 Stanford - 29 (13 games) - 2.23
54. 2018 Washington - 31 (14 games) - 2.21
55. 2016 Cal - 26 (12 games) - 2.17
55. 2018 UCLA - 26 (12 games) - 2.17
57. 2020 UCLA - 15 (7 games) - 2.14
57. 2021 Utah - 30 (14 games) - 2.14
59. 2014 Cal - 25 (12 games) - 2.08
59. 2017 Cal - 25 (12 games) - 2.08
61. 2014 Arizona - 29 (14 games) - 2.07
62. 2020 Arizona - 10 (5 games) - 2.00
63. 2019 UCLA - 23 (12 games) - 1.92
64. 2016 Washington - 26 (14 games) - 1.86
65. 2019 Arizona State - 24 (13 games) - 1.85
65. 2021 Washington State - 24 (13 games) - 1.85
67. 2018 Arizona - 22 (12 games) - 1.83
68. 2014 Oregon - 27 (15 games) - 1.80
69. 2018 Arizona State - 23 (13 games) - 1.77
70. 2014 Colorado - 21 (12 games) - 1.75
70. 2020 Washington - 7 (4 games) - 1.75
72. 2016 Colorado - 24 (14 games) - 1.71
73. 2014 Arizona State - 22 (13 games) - 1.69
73. 2015 Cal - 22 (13 games) - 1.69
73. 2015 Washington - 22 (13 games) - 1.69
76. 2014 UCLA - 21 (13 games) - 1.62
76. 2015 UCLA - 21 (13 games) - 1.62
78. 2019 Oregon - 22 (14 games) - 1.57
78. 2020 Oregon - 11 (7 games) - 1.57
80. 2015 Arizona State - 20 (13 games) - 1.54
81. 2020 Stanford - 9 (6 games) - 1.50
82. 2018 Oregon - 19 (13 games) - 1.46
82. 2021 Oregon State - 19 (13 games) - 1.46
82. 2014 USC - 19 (13 games) - 1.46
85. 2019 Arizona - 17 (12 games) - 1.42
86. 2016 USC - 17 (13 games) - 1.31
86. 2015 Washington State - 17 (13 games) - 1.31
88. 2020 Arizona State - 5 (4 games) - 1.25
89. 2017 Washington State - 15 (13 games) - 1.15
90. 2019 Utah - 14 (14 games) - 1.00
91. 2015 Stanford - 13 (14 games) - 0.93
92. 2014 Stanford - 12 (13 games) - 0.92
92. 2021 UCLA - 11 (12 games) - 0.92
94. 2016 Washington State - 11 (13 games) - 0.85
95. 2019 Washington State - 10 (13 games) - 0.77
96. 2018 Washington State - 9 (13 games) - 0.69
Observations:
* Shannon Turley was fired in April 2019. It is impossible not to draw a line between that date and a drop-off in Stanford's strength and conditioning but the propensity toward injury (or at least absences of contributing players) started at the tail end of Turley's tenure. The 2014, 2015, and 2016 teams were all healthier than the Pac-12 norm, with 2014 and 2015 spectacularly so. But 2016 was hovering around the median and then 2017 flipped over to the other side of the median. Turley's last team, 2018, was his most injury-prone.
* Still, the drop-off after that is eye-popping. 2019, as I don't need to remind anybody, was catastrophic in terms of injuries. 2020 was, of course a weird year for everybody and less comparable to all the other data points, but for what it's worth we stayed healthy for that half season. But then the only other full season without Turley beside 2019 was back to being very injury-prone. Part of the reason I wanted to do this analysis was to see if our coaches are right about all the rotten injury luck in 2021. In a word: yes. Last year was bottom 16 percent of Pac-12 seasons in terms of number of games missed by the top contributors.
* The question all of us have to be asking is the extent to which rotten injury seasons are pure luck or reflective of strength/weakness/scheme/playcalling/etc. such that certain programs can be expected to be more/less injury-prone heading into a season. One way that occurs to me to think about propensity to injury within programs over time is to look at which teams have been more or less injury-prone over the course of this entire sample. Here's what I found in terms of the team ranking over the full sweep: Oregon State (2.67), Washington (2.58), USC (2.51), Arizona State (2.45), Oregon (2.42), Cal (2.38), Colorado (2.37), Utah (2.31), Arizona (2.28), UCLA (2.24), Stanford (2.23), Washington State (1.36). Two things emerge: Washington State is sui generis, simply playing another sport than everybody else given the way they play (which incidentally is an interesting data point for those worried about injuries in sports), and otherwise these things seem to generally smooth out over time. Teams can be expected to be missing 2.37 major contributors per game but of course there is variance such that in a given season a team may experience considerably more or less luck than that.
* To my mind, this research bolsters Shaw's narrative. The last two full seasons for Stanford have been inordinately unlucky in terms of missed games by key contributors and there can be a reasonable expectation of reversion to the mean going forward. We can expect about one more key contributor per game than we had in the two seasons that serve as the major cases against Shaw.
* It would be a separate analysis to assess how much injuries are tied to team performance. That is, it's not clear how many wins (if it's even one) having one more key contributor per game would produce. Now that I have this data that might be the next project.
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