Although I tremendously appreciate all of the metric comparisons that Hulk, Matt, and others consistently provide in numerous threads, I don't think raw number comparisons, especially on offense, necessarily reveal everything.. Defensively, raw numbers are more telling but offensive total yardage and points scored do not always equate with games won.
So many Pac-12 teams run no-huddle offenses that they average 25-35 more plays per game than our average of 60-70 plays per game. Thus assuming equal yards per play, such teams should average 40% to 50 % more yards per game and a least 10 more points per game than we average across our schedule. Furthermore, teams that pass 60% or more per game averaging 7-8 yards per attempt will invariably have more yards per play than we will passing 20-30 times per game while rushing for 5-6 yards per attempt.
To me the most telling stats against a good team are turnover ratio, third down conversion percentage, red zone efficiency, passing completion percentage, and time of possession, providing the latter differential for the game is greater than 5-7 minutes. (That latter data point really helps us defensively.) Regarding pass completion percentage, I would draw the line at 65%. Running more play action passes should make 65% attainable. Our QBs should average 8 yards passing per attempt and no more than one interception per game.
Whether we like it or not, rushing for over 200 yards per game is more important in controlling the flow than passing for over 200 yards per game. Ideally, I would like to see 250 yards rushing with 200 yards passing per game. Combined with no more than one turnover per game should translate to a win at least 90% of the time However, at the end of the year, 400 to 450 yards per game generating 30-35 points per game will pale in comparison to the no huddle teams. Yet our winning percentage just could have us playing on new Years Day, or if everything works out to perfection, in the CFP semi-final game.
So many Pac-12 teams run no-huddle offenses that they average 25-35 more plays per game than our average of 60-70 plays per game. Thus assuming equal yards per play, such teams should average 40% to 50 % more yards per game and a least 10 more points per game than we average across our schedule. Furthermore, teams that pass 60% or more per game averaging 7-8 yards per attempt will invariably have more yards per play than we will passing 20-30 times per game while rushing for 5-6 yards per attempt.
To me the most telling stats against a good team are turnover ratio, third down conversion percentage, red zone efficiency, passing completion percentage, and time of possession, providing the latter differential for the game is greater than 5-7 minutes. (That latter data point really helps us defensively.) Regarding pass completion percentage, I would draw the line at 65%. Running more play action passes should make 65% attainable. Our QBs should average 8 yards passing per attempt and no more than one interception per game.
Whether we like it or not, rushing for over 200 yards per game is more important in controlling the flow than passing for over 200 yards per game. Ideally, I would like to see 250 yards rushing with 200 yards passing per game. Combined with no more than one turnover per game should translate to a win at least 90% of the time However, at the end of the year, 400 to 450 yards per game generating 30-35 points per game will pale in comparison to the no huddle teams. Yet our winning percentage just could have us playing on new Years Day, or if everything works out to perfection, in the CFP semi-final game.
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