I don't get the sense Stanford will be in the market for a head coach in the coming months but nonetheless it is interesting to me, and perhaps to others, to get a sense of how coaches stack up and to think about who might be attractive for Stanford should there become a need for new coach. My approach to this will be to array current and recent coaches based on their most recent major college football head coaching three year medians relative to the three year program medians prior to their arrival. There are many who confound this exercise because they have few years of head coaching experience and/or little continuity at a school, so in those cases I have tried to make a good faith effort to slot in somewhat objectively based on the available data points but do want to emphasize that it's always hard to array in such a big data set with so many apples and oranges. Recognizing that and many other caveats (three year medians on their own can't capture trajectories/directionality, it's much harder to surpass recent performance at some programs than others, following a legend can make even great coaches look less good by this snapshot, etc.), here is a stab at coaching power rankings based solely on how coaches have done relative to how the coach before them did:
Epic (performance divided by predecessor < 0.1)
1) Nick Saban (no longer head coach) - 2 vs. 55
2) Dan Lanning (Oregon) - 2 vs. 26
3) Jim Harbaugh (no longer FBS head coach) - 4 vs. 44 at Michigan [At Stanford years earlier he was 29 vs. 46]
Elite (performance divided by predecessor < 0.3)
4) Kirby Smart (Georgia) - 3 vs. 26
5) Kalen DeBoer (Alabama) - 13 vs. 74 using the more recent of his two seasons at Washington [Only one year at Alabama but 6 vs. 2; second of two years at Fresno State was 51 vs. 53]
6) Curt Cignetti (Indiana) - only one year but 11 vs. 86 [At James Madison immediately prior he was 60 vs. 33]
7) Josh Heupel (Tennessee) - 9 vs. 69 [At UCF immediately prior he was 23 vs. 86]
8) Deion Sanders (Colorado) - 14 in his second season vs. 90
9) Jonathan Smith (Michigan State) - 19 vs. 106 at Oregon State [Only one year at Michigan State but 92 vs. 54]
10) Rhett Lashlee (SMU) - 10 vs. 50
11) Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss) - 16 vs. 68 [At Florida Atlantic immediately prior he was 47 vs. 139, at USC several years before that he was 21 vs. 4, and in one year at Tennessee he was 36 vs. 15]
12) James Franklin (Penn State) - 8 vs. 30 [At Penn State immediately prior he was 36 vs. 104]
13) Mike Elko (Texas A&M) - 31 in the second of his seasons at Duke vs. 113 [Only one year at Texas A&M but 19 vs. 22
14) Mike Norvell (Florida State) - 16 vs. 56
15) Chris Petersen (no longer head coach) - 13 vs. 44 at Washington [At Boise State immediately prior he was 41 vs. 12]
16) Chris Klieman (Kansas State) - 11 vs. 37
Excellent (performance divided by predecessor < 0.5)
17) Jeff Brohm (Louisville) - 16 in his second year vs. 52 [At Purdue immediately prior he was 53 vs. 99 and at Western Kentucky immediately prior to that he was 35 vs. 91]
18) Kenny Dillingham (Arizona State) - 12 in his second year vs. 36
19) Brian Kelly (LSU) - 12 vs. 35
20) Lance Leipold (Kansas) - 33 vs. 93
21) Jon Sumrall (Tulane) - 37 in his second year vs. 100 at Troy [Only one year at Tulane but 42 vs. 61]
22) Steve Sarkisian (Texas) - 6 vs. 15 [At USC years earlier he was 21 in his only full year vs. 21, immediately prior to that at Washington he was 44 vs. 50]
23) Jeff Traylor (UTSA) - 63 vs. 156
24) Frank Solich (no longer head coach) - 55 vs. 134 at Ohio
25) Barry Odom (Purdue) - 50 in his second season vs. 121 at UNLV [At Missouri several years prior he was 54 vs. 15]
26) Greg Schiano (Rutgers) - 51 vs. 121
27) Mark Stoops (Kentucky) - 36 vs. 85
28) Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri) - 23 vs. 54
29) Brent Key (Georgia Tech) - 41 in his second year vs. 96
30) Willie Fritz (Houston) - 61 vs. 142 at Tulane before going to Houston [Only one year at Houston but 73 vs. 64; prior to Tulane at Georgia Southern he was 59 in his second year vs. 81]
31) Dave Aranda (Baylor) - 27 vs. 62
32) GJ Kinne (Texas State) - 67 in his second year vs. 153
33) Sam Pittman (Arkansas) - 43 vs. 98
34) Bill Clark (no longer head coach) - 67 vs. 152 at UAB
35) Matt Campbell (Iowa State) - 32 vs. 72 -[At Toledo immediately prior he was 68 vs. 122]
36) Bret Bielema (Illinois) - 40 vs. 88 [At Arkansas several years prior he was 46 vs. 9 and at Wisconsin immediately prior to that he was 12 vs. 27]
37) Dan Mullen (UNLV) - 14 vs. 30 at Florida [At Mississippi State immediately prior he was 19 vs. 78]
38) Rocky Long (no longer head coach) - 51 vs. 103
39) Jeff Monken (Army) - 73 vs. 147
40) Chip Kelly (no longer head coach) - 29 vs. 58 at UCLA [At Oregon prior to his NFL stints he was 3 vs. 11]
40) Rich Rodriguez (West Virginia) - 82 vs. 164 at Jacksonville State [At Arizona years prior he was 62 vs. 37, at Michigan prior to that he was 81 vs. 16, and at West Virginia immediately prior to that he was 6 vs. 41]
Very Good (performance divided by predecessor < 0.75)
42) Kane Wommack (no longer head coach) - 81 vs. 158 at South Alabama
43) Jerry Kill (no longer head coach) - 98 in his second year vs. 183 at New Mexico State
44) Fran Brown (Syracuse) - only one year but 44 vs. 82
45) Pat Narduzzi (Pitt) - 32 vs. 59
46) Mack Brown (no longer head coach) - 50 vs. 90 at North Carolina
47) Mike Locksley (Maryland) - 37 vs. 66
48) Joey McGuire (Texas Tech) - 30 vs. 52
49) Bill O'Brien (Boston College) - only one year but 47 vs. 81
50) Philip Montgomery (no longer head coach) - 77 vs. 132 at Tulsa
51) Lincoln Riley (USC) - 20 vs. 34 [At Oklahoma immediately prior he was 6 vs. 6]
52) Jimbo Fisher (no longer head coach) - 22 vs. 37 [At Florida State immediately prior he was 12 vs. 31]
53) Ryan Day (Ohio State) - 3 vs. 5
54) Jeff Tedford (no longer head coach) - 75 vs. 124 at Fresno State
55) Dabo Swinney (Clemson) - 18 vs. 29
56) Mike Houston (no longer head coach) - 81 vs. 129 at East Carolina
57) Spencer Danielson (Boise State) - only one year but 30 vs. 46 - 0.652173
58) Sean Lewis (San Diego State) - 105 vs. 161 at Kent State [At San Diego State this past year he was 131 vs. 91]
59) Mike Bloomgren (no longer head coach) - 109 vs. 166 at Rice
60) Alex Golesh (South Florida) - 86 in his second year vs. 130
61) Shawn Elliott (no longer head coach) - 93 vs. 140 at Georgia State
62) Scot Loeffler (Bowling Green) - 95 vs. 143
63) Ricky Rahne (Old Dominion) - 108 vs. 161
64) Shane Beamer (South Carolina) - 38 vs. 55
65) Herm Edwards (no longer head coach) - 36 vs. 52 at Arizona State
66) Craig Bohl (no longer head coach) - 86 vs. 121 at Wyoming
67) Dana Dimel (no longer head coach) - 128 vs. 180 at UTEP
68) Chuck Martin (Miami of Ohio) - 89 vs. 125
69) Urban Meyer (no longer head coach) - 5 vs. 7 at Ohio State [At Florida prior to that he was 2 vs. 22, at Utah immediately prior to that he was 4 in his second year vs. 75, and at Bowling Green immediately prior to that he was 54 in his second year vs. 112]
70) Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame) - 8 vs. 11
71) Tre Lamb (Tulsa) - 169 vs. 231 at Gardner-Webb [In one year at East Tennessee State immediately after he was 177 vs. 186]
72) Matt Rhule (Nebraska) - 36 in his second year vs. 49 [At Baylor before his NFL stint he was 62 vs. 13 and at Temple immediately prior to that he was 52 vs. 72]
73) Tyson Helton (Western Kentucky) - 96 vs. 130
74) Brian Newberry (Navy) - 72 in his second year vs. 97
Epic (performance divided by predecessor < 0.1)
1) Nick Saban (no longer head coach) - 2 vs. 55
2) Dan Lanning (Oregon) - 2 vs. 26
3) Jim Harbaugh (no longer FBS head coach) - 4 vs. 44 at Michigan [At Stanford years earlier he was 29 vs. 46]
Elite (performance divided by predecessor < 0.3)
4) Kirby Smart (Georgia) - 3 vs. 26
5) Kalen DeBoer (Alabama) - 13 vs. 74 using the more recent of his two seasons at Washington [Only one year at Alabama but 6 vs. 2; second of two years at Fresno State was 51 vs. 53]
6) Curt Cignetti (Indiana) - only one year but 11 vs. 86 [At James Madison immediately prior he was 60 vs. 33]
7) Josh Heupel (Tennessee) - 9 vs. 69 [At UCF immediately prior he was 23 vs. 86]
8) Deion Sanders (Colorado) - 14 in his second season vs. 90
9) Jonathan Smith (Michigan State) - 19 vs. 106 at Oregon State [Only one year at Michigan State but 92 vs. 54]
10) Rhett Lashlee (SMU) - 10 vs. 50
11) Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss) - 16 vs. 68 [At Florida Atlantic immediately prior he was 47 vs. 139, at USC several years before that he was 21 vs. 4, and in one year at Tennessee he was 36 vs. 15]
12) James Franklin (Penn State) - 8 vs. 30 [At Penn State immediately prior he was 36 vs. 104]
13) Mike Elko (Texas A&M) - 31 in the second of his seasons at Duke vs. 113 [Only one year at Texas A&M but 19 vs. 22
14) Mike Norvell (Florida State) - 16 vs. 56
15) Chris Petersen (no longer head coach) - 13 vs. 44 at Washington [At Boise State immediately prior he was 41 vs. 12]
16) Chris Klieman (Kansas State) - 11 vs. 37
Excellent (performance divided by predecessor < 0.5)
17) Jeff Brohm (Louisville) - 16 in his second year vs. 52 [At Purdue immediately prior he was 53 vs. 99 and at Western Kentucky immediately prior to that he was 35 vs. 91]
18) Kenny Dillingham (Arizona State) - 12 in his second year vs. 36
19) Brian Kelly (LSU) - 12 vs. 35
20) Lance Leipold (Kansas) - 33 vs. 93
21) Jon Sumrall (Tulane) - 37 in his second year vs. 100 at Troy [Only one year at Tulane but 42 vs. 61]
22) Steve Sarkisian (Texas) - 6 vs. 15 [At USC years earlier he was 21 in his only full year vs. 21, immediately prior to that at Washington he was 44 vs. 50]
23) Jeff Traylor (UTSA) - 63 vs. 156
24) Frank Solich (no longer head coach) - 55 vs. 134 at Ohio
25) Barry Odom (Purdue) - 50 in his second season vs. 121 at UNLV [At Missouri several years prior he was 54 vs. 15]
26) Greg Schiano (Rutgers) - 51 vs. 121
27) Mark Stoops (Kentucky) - 36 vs. 85
28) Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri) - 23 vs. 54
29) Brent Key (Georgia Tech) - 41 in his second year vs. 96
30) Willie Fritz (Houston) - 61 vs. 142 at Tulane before going to Houston [Only one year at Houston but 73 vs. 64; prior to Tulane at Georgia Southern he was 59 in his second year vs. 81]
31) Dave Aranda (Baylor) - 27 vs. 62
32) GJ Kinne (Texas State) - 67 in his second year vs. 153
33) Sam Pittman (Arkansas) - 43 vs. 98
34) Bill Clark (no longer head coach) - 67 vs. 152 at UAB
35) Matt Campbell (Iowa State) - 32 vs. 72 -[At Toledo immediately prior he was 68 vs. 122]
36) Bret Bielema (Illinois) - 40 vs. 88 [At Arkansas several years prior he was 46 vs. 9 and at Wisconsin immediately prior to that he was 12 vs. 27]
37) Dan Mullen (UNLV) - 14 vs. 30 at Florida [At Mississippi State immediately prior he was 19 vs. 78]
38) Rocky Long (no longer head coach) - 51 vs. 103
39) Jeff Monken (Army) - 73 vs. 147
40) Chip Kelly (no longer head coach) - 29 vs. 58 at UCLA [At Oregon prior to his NFL stints he was 3 vs. 11]
40) Rich Rodriguez (West Virginia) - 82 vs. 164 at Jacksonville State [At Arizona years prior he was 62 vs. 37, at Michigan prior to that he was 81 vs. 16, and at West Virginia immediately prior to that he was 6 vs. 41]
Very Good (performance divided by predecessor < 0.75)
42) Kane Wommack (no longer head coach) - 81 vs. 158 at South Alabama
43) Jerry Kill (no longer head coach) - 98 in his second year vs. 183 at New Mexico State
44) Fran Brown (Syracuse) - only one year but 44 vs. 82
45) Pat Narduzzi (Pitt) - 32 vs. 59
46) Mack Brown (no longer head coach) - 50 vs. 90 at North Carolina
47) Mike Locksley (Maryland) - 37 vs. 66
48) Joey McGuire (Texas Tech) - 30 vs. 52
49) Bill O'Brien (Boston College) - only one year but 47 vs. 81
50) Philip Montgomery (no longer head coach) - 77 vs. 132 at Tulsa
51) Lincoln Riley (USC) - 20 vs. 34 [At Oklahoma immediately prior he was 6 vs. 6]
52) Jimbo Fisher (no longer head coach) - 22 vs. 37 [At Florida State immediately prior he was 12 vs. 31]
53) Ryan Day (Ohio State) - 3 vs. 5
54) Jeff Tedford (no longer head coach) - 75 vs. 124 at Fresno State
55) Dabo Swinney (Clemson) - 18 vs. 29
56) Mike Houston (no longer head coach) - 81 vs. 129 at East Carolina
57) Spencer Danielson (Boise State) - only one year but 30 vs. 46 - 0.652173
58) Sean Lewis (San Diego State) - 105 vs. 161 at Kent State [At San Diego State this past year he was 131 vs. 91]
59) Mike Bloomgren (no longer head coach) - 109 vs. 166 at Rice
60) Alex Golesh (South Florida) - 86 in his second year vs. 130
61) Shawn Elliott (no longer head coach) - 93 vs. 140 at Georgia State
62) Scot Loeffler (Bowling Green) - 95 vs. 143
63) Ricky Rahne (Old Dominion) - 108 vs. 161
64) Shane Beamer (South Carolina) - 38 vs. 55
65) Herm Edwards (no longer head coach) - 36 vs. 52 at Arizona State
66) Craig Bohl (no longer head coach) - 86 vs. 121 at Wyoming
67) Dana Dimel (no longer head coach) - 128 vs. 180 at UTEP
68) Chuck Martin (Miami of Ohio) - 89 vs. 125
69) Urban Meyer (no longer head coach) - 5 vs. 7 at Ohio State [At Florida prior to that he was 2 vs. 22, at Utah immediately prior to that he was 4 in his second year vs. 75, and at Bowling Green immediately prior to that he was 54 in his second year vs. 112]
70) Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame) - 8 vs. 11
71) Tre Lamb (Tulsa) - 169 vs. 231 at Gardner-Webb [In one year at East Tennessee State immediately after he was 177 vs. 186]
72) Matt Rhule (Nebraska) - 36 in his second year vs. 49 [At Baylor before his NFL stint he was 62 vs. 13 and at Temple immediately prior to that he was 52 vs. 72]
73) Tyson Helton (Western Kentucky) - 96 vs. 130
74) Brian Newberry (Navy) - 72 in his second year vs. 97
