About time we start talking Kansas State, don't you think?
Some big picture notes on their 2020 team to baseline the conversation (for what it's worth, typically I put significant stock in algorithmic national comparative tools like Sagarin and FEI but the pandemic-shortened, non-conference game-deprived 2020 season decreases the reliability of those numbers for 2020, which is why I've also included 2019 even though those are more removed; nonetheless 2020 remains a far more relevant set of data points given roster turnover and such):
* Sagarin #54 (#27 in 2019)
* Offensive FEI: #53 (#49 in 2019)
* Offensive Yards Per Play: #68
* Defensive FEI: #82 (#24 in 2019)
* Defensive Yards Per Play: #90
In short, in 2020 Kansas State had a decent offense and a bad defense. Drilling into stats a bit more, the passing game and running game were in the same ballpark of effectiveness on a rate basis but the Wildcats leaned on the run game much more, in large part because QB1 was hurt most of the year; on defense, they were subpar in both pass defense and run defense. According to FEI, nobody does special teams better than Kansas State under Klieman - #1 in the country in 2019, #2 in 2020. This is usually an area in which Stanford has an advantage on any given Saturday, but it appears we may have the disadvantage this week.
Let's look at the depth chart:
QB: Skylar Thompson is back. He's been a top 30 QB nationally the last couple of years when healthy.
RB: This is the one position we have talked about this offseason as Deuce Vaughn is reputed to be one of the top running backs in America. Last year his line didn't do much blocking for him but he still had a very nice freshman year and, notably, had two 70+ yard receiving touchdowns as defenses don't have much hope if the QB can connect with Vaughn in stride. They went to him out of the backfield for 2.5 catches per game, which is significant but not as much as we went to Austin Jones.
FB: Last year they used a fullback on 19-20 plays per game. The main guy, Jax Dineen, is pretty solid. Seems quite analogous to our situation with Heimuli.
WR: The leading receiver, Chabastin Taylor is recovering from an ACL injury and is not listed as a starter for Saturday. The guy they're relying on is Malik Knowles, who evidently had a tough time behaviorally with the pandemic last season and has not yet emerged as a reliable guy, just really showing flashes in particular against Texas the last two years. The slot receiver, Philip Brooks, is a modest dink-and-dunk option. The third starting receiver is a fifth year player who has never done much but the coaches insist had a great offseason. Not a scary wide receiver corps.
TE: Daniel Imatorbebhe transferred in from Illinois to make Kansas State his third school and many were surprised to see him listed not only as not the starter but with an OR between him and the third string guy. The starter, Nick Lenners, seems like a poor man's Tucker Fisk. Another group that isn't scary.
OL: They return the entire offensive line left-to-right, Beebe-Rivas-Johnson-Adler-Duffie as well as the sixth man Leveston. Have to figure they're in for significant improvement on the offensive line, which probably explains some of the hype around Vaughn if he was as effective as he was without a great line. Last year the left side of the line including the center played very solidly, and Rivas looked like an emerging star. The right side of the line struggled mightily.
DL: The first thing that jumps out to me is the wealth of old man strength/savvy they have at DT. Eli Huggins is a fifth year guy who was good last year. Timmy Horne is a sixth year transfer from Charlotte who also was already good. The sexiest name on the line is Khalid Duke, a third year DE who is getting buzz (including some nationally) as a guy ready to take the next step. The other DE, Felix Anudike, got his feet wet last year so also should be improved. Kansas State is replacing tremendous production from departing DE Wyatt Hubert so it's hard to say all this adds up to an improvement up front, but it seems like it could.
LB: They typically play two linebackers but Klieman has said that against bigger, more physical teams they will adjust to take a DB off the field and add a linebacker. The depth chart for Saturday suggests that's the plan for facing Stanford. The base guys are weak side linebacker Cody Fletcher (PFF thinks he's ok, kind of akin to how they've often viewed Jordan Fox and Gabe Reid) and middle linebacker Daniel Green (his third year as a starter and PFF thinks he's consistently been a Thunder Keck-sized massive liability). The extra linebacker on the field would be a strong side backer, either Ryan Hennington or Wayne Jones. Both Hennington and Jones are converted safeties who PFF felt were even bigger liabilities than Green. This linebacker corps makes you feel bad for Kansas State.
DB: Cornerback looks like a strength but probably not enough for this secondary to hide. Ekow Boye-Doe and Justin Gardner each broke up seven passes last year (a nice amount) and were graded as borderline superstars by PFF and, on top of them, Julius Brents is transferring in from Iowa. While PFF liked Gardner much more than Brents, according to the depth chart Brents has supplanted the returning starter. They have three corners more proven than any Stanford DB period. At safety, In contrast, safety looks like a real weakness with a returning guy, Jahron McPherson, with a really bad grade and in coming Louisville transfer, Russ Yeast, who was even more abysmal for three straight years at Louisville. When they go into nickel, it will be either Aamaris Brown (ineffective as a true freshman last year) or Reggie Stubblefield (a sixth year player transferring in from Prairie View A&M. Overall it's just too much crap in the secondary for them to feel confident about it, despite how much better corner is than safety and nickel.
Miscellaneous: They're breaking in a new place kicker, either the punter pulling double duty or a new guy.
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It should be a telling test for our supposedly new look defense. Kansas State is a very credible but not scary offense. Run defense is the big thing the coaches have obviously been talking up all offseason. We'll see. Both sides of the trenches get credible tests and that's always one of the most interesting portents to watch for in the opener.
Won't make a prediction here but, no surprise given the line, it seems like a very competitive matchup between Power Five also-rans.
Some big picture notes on their 2020 team to baseline the conversation (for what it's worth, typically I put significant stock in algorithmic national comparative tools like Sagarin and FEI but the pandemic-shortened, non-conference game-deprived 2020 season decreases the reliability of those numbers for 2020, which is why I've also included 2019 even though those are more removed; nonetheless 2020 remains a far more relevant set of data points given roster turnover and such):
* Sagarin #54 (#27 in 2019)
* Offensive FEI: #53 (#49 in 2019)
* Offensive Yards Per Play: #68
* Defensive FEI: #82 (#24 in 2019)
* Defensive Yards Per Play: #90
In short, in 2020 Kansas State had a decent offense and a bad defense. Drilling into stats a bit more, the passing game and running game were in the same ballpark of effectiveness on a rate basis but the Wildcats leaned on the run game much more, in large part because QB1 was hurt most of the year; on defense, they were subpar in both pass defense and run defense. According to FEI, nobody does special teams better than Kansas State under Klieman - #1 in the country in 2019, #2 in 2020. This is usually an area in which Stanford has an advantage on any given Saturday, but it appears we may have the disadvantage this week.
Let's look at the depth chart:
QB: Skylar Thompson is back. He's been a top 30 QB nationally the last couple of years when healthy.
RB: This is the one position we have talked about this offseason as Deuce Vaughn is reputed to be one of the top running backs in America. Last year his line didn't do much blocking for him but he still had a very nice freshman year and, notably, had two 70+ yard receiving touchdowns as defenses don't have much hope if the QB can connect with Vaughn in stride. They went to him out of the backfield for 2.5 catches per game, which is significant but not as much as we went to Austin Jones.
FB: Last year they used a fullback on 19-20 plays per game. The main guy, Jax Dineen, is pretty solid. Seems quite analogous to our situation with Heimuli.
WR: The leading receiver, Chabastin Taylor is recovering from an ACL injury and is not listed as a starter for Saturday. The guy they're relying on is Malik Knowles, who evidently had a tough time behaviorally with the pandemic last season and has not yet emerged as a reliable guy, just really showing flashes in particular against Texas the last two years. The slot receiver, Philip Brooks, is a modest dink-and-dunk option. The third starting receiver is a fifth year player who has never done much but the coaches insist had a great offseason. Not a scary wide receiver corps.
TE: Daniel Imatorbebhe transferred in from Illinois to make Kansas State his third school and many were surprised to see him listed not only as not the starter but with an OR between him and the third string guy. The starter, Nick Lenners, seems like a poor man's Tucker Fisk. Another group that isn't scary.
OL: They return the entire offensive line left-to-right, Beebe-Rivas-Johnson-Adler-Duffie as well as the sixth man Leveston. Have to figure they're in for significant improvement on the offensive line, which probably explains some of the hype around Vaughn if he was as effective as he was without a great line. Last year the left side of the line including the center played very solidly, and Rivas looked like an emerging star. The right side of the line struggled mightily.
DL: The first thing that jumps out to me is the wealth of old man strength/savvy they have at DT. Eli Huggins is a fifth year guy who was good last year. Timmy Horne is a sixth year transfer from Charlotte who also was already good. The sexiest name on the line is Khalid Duke, a third year DE who is getting buzz (including some nationally) as a guy ready to take the next step. The other DE, Felix Anudike, got his feet wet last year so also should be improved. Kansas State is replacing tremendous production from departing DE Wyatt Hubert so it's hard to say all this adds up to an improvement up front, but it seems like it could.
LB: They typically play two linebackers but Klieman has said that against bigger, more physical teams they will adjust to take a DB off the field and add a linebacker. The depth chart for Saturday suggests that's the plan for facing Stanford. The base guys are weak side linebacker Cody Fletcher (PFF thinks he's ok, kind of akin to how they've often viewed Jordan Fox and Gabe Reid) and middle linebacker Daniel Green (his third year as a starter and PFF thinks he's consistently been a Thunder Keck-sized massive liability). The extra linebacker on the field would be a strong side backer, either Ryan Hennington or Wayne Jones. Both Hennington and Jones are converted safeties who PFF felt were even bigger liabilities than Green. This linebacker corps makes you feel bad for Kansas State.
DB: Cornerback looks like a strength but probably not enough for this secondary to hide. Ekow Boye-Doe and Justin Gardner each broke up seven passes last year (a nice amount) and were graded as borderline superstars by PFF and, on top of them, Julius Brents is transferring in from Iowa. While PFF liked Gardner much more than Brents, according to the depth chart Brents has supplanted the returning starter. They have three corners more proven than any Stanford DB period. At safety, In contrast, safety looks like a real weakness with a returning guy, Jahron McPherson, with a really bad grade and in coming Louisville transfer, Russ Yeast, who was even more abysmal for three straight years at Louisville. When they go into nickel, it will be either Aamaris Brown (ineffective as a true freshman last year) or Reggie Stubblefield (a sixth year player transferring in from Prairie View A&M. Overall it's just too much crap in the secondary for them to feel confident about it, despite how much better corner is than safety and nickel.
Miscellaneous: They're breaking in a new place kicker, either the punter pulling double duty or a new guy.
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It should be a telling test for our supposedly new look defense. Kansas State is a very credible but not scary offense. Run defense is the big thing the coaches have obviously been talking up all offseason. We'll see. Both sides of the trenches get credible tests and that's always one of the most interesting portents to watch for in the opener.
Won't make a prediction here but, no surprise given the line, it seems like a very competitive matchup between Power Five also-rans.
