We’re #13
That is a very high ranking for returning production but significantly lower than last year (#2 on the strength of being #4 on offense and #4 on defense). Given the modest impact Connelly has acknowledged returning production has (he has crunched the numbers in the past to show that only about ten teams a year have so much returning production as to significantly positively correlate with performance, and in this year’s update he makes it sound like this year it could be even fewer teams), this probably shouldn’t fundamentally change any views of this season.
Our returning production is #63 on offense and #6 on defense. Returning production is not a reason to expect improvement on offense but it is on defense.
In the ACC, Clemson is #1, we are #13, and everybody else is in the range it probably wouldn’t predict much (26-90 specifically in terms of ACC teams). We don’t play Clemson, which is a big break. Moreover, Connelly cites Miami and SMU as two of the teams most likely to regress. We play them on the road so it seems likely we will squander that break, but hope springs eternal.
The most interesting thing might be that Connelly found that writ large this is the lowest amount of returning production nationally he’s ever recorded (and it stands to reason arguably ever). The COVID-19 bonus year guys mostly cycling out has indeed turned out to have a big effect. That could be great news for us. However, as Connelly notes, the other factor is that transfers are more prevalent than ever and he doesn’t count their returning production as much. That may mean he underrates the importance of transfers, in which case he would be overrating Stanford (as a program that relies relatively less on transfers). The other thing he observes is that the main thing going on is the transfer portal gutting the Group of Five.
The actual initial SP+ rankings will come out later this week. I’ll be interested to see where we are. We know it won’t be good but I’ll be interested to see how much lower it is than last year’s preseason model (#77). In real life we ended 2024 at #103.
That is a very high ranking for returning production but significantly lower than last year (#2 on the strength of being #4 on offense and #4 on defense). Given the modest impact Connelly has acknowledged returning production has (he has crunched the numbers in the past to show that only about ten teams a year have so much returning production as to significantly positively correlate with performance, and in this year’s update he makes it sound like this year it could be even fewer teams), this probably shouldn’t fundamentally change any views of this season.
Our returning production is #63 on offense and #6 on defense. Returning production is not a reason to expect improvement on offense but it is on defense.
In the ACC, Clemson is #1, we are #13, and everybody else is in the range it probably wouldn’t predict much (26-90 specifically in terms of ACC teams). We don’t play Clemson, which is a big break. Moreover, Connelly cites Miami and SMU as two of the teams most likely to regress. We play them on the road so it seems likely we will squander that break, but hope springs eternal.
The most interesting thing might be that Connelly found that writ large this is the lowest amount of returning production nationally he’s ever recorded (and it stands to reason arguably ever). The COVID-19 bonus year guys mostly cycling out has indeed turned out to have a big effect. That could be great news for us. However, as Connelly notes, the other factor is that transfers are more prevalent than ever and he doesn’t count their returning production as much. That may mean he underrates the importance of transfers, in which case he would be overrating Stanford (as a program that relies relatively less on transfers). The other thing he observes is that the main thing going on is the transfer portal gutting the Group of Five.
The actual initial SP+ rankings will come out later this week. I’ll be interested to see where we are. We know it won’t be good but I’ll be interested to see how much lower it is than last year’s preseason model (#77). In real life we ended 2024 at #103.
