There has been a fair bit of discussion recently about our basketball personnel and what we're missing/what we need to get over the hump. To me when a coach has been around as long as Haase has been the bottom line is that he owns the product and should be accountable to the results, regardless of whether there's a personnel explanation for shortcomings (because he's responsible for building the roster and not just the coaching once players matriculate). But I get that these questions of what kind of talent we have and what kind of talent we might have going forward are relevant and interesting ones. In that spirit, I wanted to wrap my head around the level of performance Haase teams have mustered from individual players and see if those observations tell us anything. [I think the level of performance Haase teams have mustered as a collective is abundantly clear and know at least one poster is bored by the repetition of stats proving that, so this post is about individual performance rather than collective performance]
Let's start by listing the 400+ minute players in the Haase era (or 275+ in 2021 since the season was shorter) as ranked by Player Efficiency Rating and by Box Plus/Minus:
Player Efficiency Rating
1. 2021 Oscar da Silva - 27.6
2. 2020 Oscar da Silva - 25.9
3. 2017 Reid Travis - 25.4
4. 2019 Josh Sharma - 25.3
5. 2018 Reid Travis - 23.5
6. 2020 Tyrell Terry - 19.3
7. 2022 Spencer Jones - 18.2
8. 2019 Kezie Okpala - 18.1
9. 2017 Michael Humphrey - 16.6
10. 2017 Dorian Pickens - 16.4
10. 2018 Michael Humphrey - 16.4
10. 2021 Jaiden Delaire - 16.4
13. 2021 Daejon Davis - 16.2
14. 2022 James Keefe - 15.5
15. 2018 Dorian Pickens - 15.4
16. 2019 Oscar da Silva - 15.3
17. 2022 Harrison Ingram - 14.9
18. 2019 Daejon Davis - 14.8
18. 2022 Jaiden Delaire - 14.8
20. 2022 Brandon Angel - 14.5
21. 2020 Isaac White - 14.4
22. 2020 Spencer Jones - 14.0
23. 2021 Michael O'Connell - 13.8
24. 2018 Daejon Davis - 13.3
24. 2020 Jaiden Delaire - 13.3
26. 2021 Spencer Jones - 13.0
26. 2021 Bryce Wills - 13.0
28. 2018 Oscar da Silva - 12.3
29. 2017 Marcus Allen - 12.1
30. 2017 Marcus Sheffield - 11.6
31. 2019 Marcus Sheffield - 11.5
31. 2020 Daejon Davis - 11.5
33. 2020 Bryce Wills - 11.3
34. 2021 Ziaire Williams - 11.2
35. 2017 Robert Cartwright - 10.7
36. 2018 Kezie Okpala - 10.5
36. 2018 Robert Cartwright - 10.5
38. 2021 Lukas Kisunas - 9.8
39. 2019 Cormac Ryan - 9.6
40. 2022 Michael O'Connell - 9.5
41. 2019 Bryce Wills - 9.2
42. 2017 Christian Sanders - 8.8
42. 2017 Josh Sharma - 8.8
44. 2018 Isaac White - 8.7
45. 2022 Isael Silva - 5.4
46. 2021 Noah Taitz - 5.1
Box Plus/Minus
1. 2021 Oscar da Silva - 9.7
2. 2020 Oscar da Silva - 8.0
3. 2020 Spencer Jones - 6.7
4. 2022 Spencer Jones - 6.3
5. 2020 Tyrell Terry - 6.1
6. 2019 Josh Sharma - 5.6
7. 2017 Dorian Pickens - 5.4
7. 2018 Reid Travis - 5.4
7. 2020 Isaac White - 5.4
10. 2021 Spencer Jones - 4.9
11. 2018 Dorian Pickens - 4.4
12. 2017 Reid Travis - 4.3
13. 2021 Daejon Davis - 3.7
14. 2019 Oscar da Silva - 3.6
14. 2021 Michael O'Connell - 3.6
16. 2022 Harrison Ingram - 3.5
17. 2018 Oscar da Silva - 3.3
18. 2019 Kezie Okpala - 3.2
18. 2022 James Keefe - 3.2
20. 2021 Bryce Wills - 3.1
21. 2018 Michael Humphrey - 3.0
22. 2020 Daejon Davis - 2.8
22. 2020 Bryce Wills - 2.8
24. 2021 Jaiden Delaire - 2.4
25. 2022 Brandon Angel - 2.1
26. 2017 Michael Humphrey - 2.0
27. 2022 Jaiden Delaire - 1.9
28. 2019 Daejon Davis - 1.6
29. 2018 Daejon Davis - 1.4
29. 2017 Robert Cartwright - 1.4
31. 2019 Marcus Sheffield - 1.3
32. 2019 Cormac Ryan - 1.2
33. 2017 Marcus Sheffield - 1.1
34. 2017 Marcus Allen - 0.9
34. 2018 Robert Cartwright - 0.9
36. 2020 Jaiden Delaire - 0.7
37. 2018 Isaac White - 0.3
37. 2021 Ziaire Williams - 0.3
39. 2019 Bryce Wills - 0.2
39. 2021 Lukas Kisunas - 0.2
41. 2018 Kezie Okpala - -0.4
42. 2022 Michael O'Connell - -0.6
43. 2017 Christian Sanders - -0.7
44. 2017 Josh Sharma - -1.1
45. 2021 Noah Taitz - -1.4
46. 2022 Isael Silva - -2.3
Some observations:
* To get a sense of trajectory over time, the number of above-average performances in each year: 2-3 in 2017 (Travis, Pickens, arguably Humphrey), 3-4 in 2018 (Travis, Pickens, Humphrey, arguably da Silva), 3-4 in 2019 (Sharma, Okpala, da Silva, arguably Davis), 4-6 in 2020 (da Silva, Terry, White, Jones, arguably Davis, arguably Wills), 3-6 in 2021 (da Silva, Davis, O'Connell, arguably Delaire, arguably Jones, arguably Wills), and 3-5 in 2022 (Jones, Ingram, Keefe, arguably Delaire, arguably Angel). Very much looks like stagnation and comparable amount of solid play for numerous years in a row.
* Does it look better at the elite level? The best seasons have been 2021 da Silva and 2020 da Silva followed by some mix of 2017 Travis, 2019 Sharma, 2018 Travis, 2020 Jones, 2022 Jones, and 2020 Terry. That's one in 2017, one in 2018, one in 2019, three in 2020, one in 2021, and one in 2022. Clear picture of 2020 as the outlier and the norm very much being one standout player. There's no upward trajectory here either.
* The 2023 roster looks like it will have 2-3 of its top four players back, assuming Delaire is gone and Ingram-dependent. By way of comparison, the last three rosters all had two of the top four players back (da Silva and Davis in 2020, da Silva and Jones in 2021, O'Connell and Delaire in 2022). Arguably this year's team was actually a standout in terms of returning proven talent as Jones was at least as established as O'Connell and Delaire. In sum, the 2023 roster will be par for the course if Ingram departs and a tick above the norm if Ingram returns, though having three key guys back is not different than the 2022 roster we had hoped was ready to get over the hump.
* The other question to ask is whether players under Haase improve over time, which is a key factor in whether it makes sense to be optimistic that this returning talent will get us over the hump next year. Here's a rough stab at what it looks like to me: da Silva, Sharma, Okpala, Davis, Wills, and White improved over time; Travis, Humphrey, Pickens, Delaire, Cartwright, and Sheffield plateaued; and Jones is a tougher call and still has more of the story to write (as is the case with O'Connell and Taitz after regressing this past year). I look at this and think the following: we can be fairly confident an established player showing us they can play will mean they won't completely disappear, but it's essentially a tossup whether an established guy improves or plateaus. It's not the case that you'd expect, for instance, Ingram, Jones, Keefe, and Angel all to take marked strides next year. What's likely to happen is two of them give us basically what they did this year and two give us significant but not huge improvements.
This exercise did not make me more optimistic but I want to take seriously the personnel-focused explanations for our troubles and the argument that we are poised to unlock a whole new level of play from what we've seen. From what I can see there's a real chance 2023 takes a step forward but no real evidence that there's been or is likely to be significant progress beyond the basic level across most of the Haase tenure, which has been remarkably consistent not only in the overall performance of the team but even in the level of performance of the most significant individuals, as demonstrated by this research.
Let's start by listing the 400+ minute players in the Haase era (or 275+ in 2021 since the season was shorter) as ranked by Player Efficiency Rating and by Box Plus/Minus:
Player Efficiency Rating
1. 2021 Oscar da Silva - 27.6
2. 2020 Oscar da Silva - 25.9
3. 2017 Reid Travis - 25.4
4. 2019 Josh Sharma - 25.3
5. 2018 Reid Travis - 23.5
6. 2020 Tyrell Terry - 19.3
7. 2022 Spencer Jones - 18.2
8. 2019 Kezie Okpala - 18.1
9. 2017 Michael Humphrey - 16.6
10. 2017 Dorian Pickens - 16.4
10. 2018 Michael Humphrey - 16.4
10. 2021 Jaiden Delaire - 16.4
13. 2021 Daejon Davis - 16.2
14. 2022 James Keefe - 15.5
15. 2018 Dorian Pickens - 15.4
16. 2019 Oscar da Silva - 15.3
17. 2022 Harrison Ingram - 14.9
18. 2019 Daejon Davis - 14.8
18. 2022 Jaiden Delaire - 14.8
20. 2022 Brandon Angel - 14.5
21. 2020 Isaac White - 14.4
22. 2020 Spencer Jones - 14.0
23. 2021 Michael O'Connell - 13.8
24. 2018 Daejon Davis - 13.3
24. 2020 Jaiden Delaire - 13.3
26. 2021 Spencer Jones - 13.0
26. 2021 Bryce Wills - 13.0
28. 2018 Oscar da Silva - 12.3
29. 2017 Marcus Allen - 12.1
30. 2017 Marcus Sheffield - 11.6
31. 2019 Marcus Sheffield - 11.5
31. 2020 Daejon Davis - 11.5
33. 2020 Bryce Wills - 11.3
34. 2021 Ziaire Williams - 11.2
35. 2017 Robert Cartwright - 10.7
36. 2018 Kezie Okpala - 10.5
36. 2018 Robert Cartwright - 10.5
38. 2021 Lukas Kisunas - 9.8
39. 2019 Cormac Ryan - 9.6
40. 2022 Michael O'Connell - 9.5
41. 2019 Bryce Wills - 9.2
42. 2017 Christian Sanders - 8.8
42. 2017 Josh Sharma - 8.8
44. 2018 Isaac White - 8.7
45. 2022 Isael Silva - 5.4
46. 2021 Noah Taitz - 5.1
Box Plus/Minus
1. 2021 Oscar da Silva - 9.7
2. 2020 Oscar da Silva - 8.0
3. 2020 Spencer Jones - 6.7
4. 2022 Spencer Jones - 6.3
5. 2020 Tyrell Terry - 6.1
6. 2019 Josh Sharma - 5.6
7. 2017 Dorian Pickens - 5.4
7. 2018 Reid Travis - 5.4
7. 2020 Isaac White - 5.4
10. 2021 Spencer Jones - 4.9
11. 2018 Dorian Pickens - 4.4
12. 2017 Reid Travis - 4.3
13. 2021 Daejon Davis - 3.7
14. 2019 Oscar da Silva - 3.6
14. 2021 Michael O'Connell - 3.6
16. 2022 Harrison Ingram - 3.5
17. 2018 Oscar da Silva - 3.3
18. 2019 Kezie Okpala - 3.2
18. 2022 James Keefe - 3.2
20. 2021 Bryce Wills - 3.1
21. 2018 Michael Humphrey - 3.0
22. 2020 Daejon Davis - 2.8
22. 2020 Bryce Wills - 2.8
24. 2021 Jaiden Delaire - 2.4
25. 2022 Brandon Angel - 2.1
26. 2017 Michael Humphrey - 2.0
27. 2022 Jaiden Delaire - 1.9
28. 2019 Daejon Davis - 1.6
29. 2018 Daejon Davis - 1.4
29. 2017 Robert Cartwright - 1.4
31. 2019 Marcus Sheffield - 1.3
32. 2019 Cormac Ryan - 1.2
33. 2017 Marcus Sheffield - 1.1
34. 2017 Marcus Allen - 0.9
34. 2018 Robert Cartwright - 0.9
36. 2020 Jaiden Delaire - 0.7
37. 2018 Isaac White - 0.3
37. 2021 Ziaire Williams - 0.3
39. 2019 Bryce Wills - 0.2
39. 2021 Lukas Kisunas - 0.2
41. 2018 Kezie Okpala - -0.4
42. 2022 Michael O'Connell - -0.6
43. 2017 Christian Sanders - -0.7
44. 2017 Josh Sharma - -1.1
45. 2021 Noah Taitz - -1.4
46. 2022 Isael Silva - -2.3
Some observations:
* To get a sense of trajectory over time, the number of above-average performances in each year: 2-3 in 2017 (Travis, Pickens, arguably Humphrey), 3-4 in 2018 (Travis, Pickens, Humphrey, arguably da Silva), 3-4 in 2019 (Sharma, Okpala, da Silva, arguably Davis), 4-6 in 2020 (da Silva, Terry, White, Jones, arguably Davis, arguably Wills), 3-6 in 2021 (da Silva, Davis, O'Connell, arguably Delaire, arguably Jones, arguably Wills), and 3-5 in 2022 (Jones, Ingram, Keefe, arguably Delaire, arguably Angel). Very much looks like stagnation and comparable amount of solid play for numerous years in a row.
* Does it look better at the elite level? The best seasons have been 2021 da Silva and 2020 da Silva followed by some mix of 2017 Travis, 2019 Sharma, 2018 Travis, 2020 Jones, 2022 Jones, and 2020 Terry. That's one in 2017, one in 2018, one in 2019, three in 2020, one in 2021, and one in 2022. Clear picture of 2020 as the outlier and the norm very much being one standout player. There's no upward trajectory here either.
* The 2023 roster looks like it will have 2-3 of its top four players back, assuming Delaire is gone and Ingram-dependent. By way of comparison, the last three rosters all had two of the top four players back (da Silva and Davis in 2020, da Silva and Jones in 2021, O'Connell and Delaire in 2022). Arguably this year's team was actually a standout in terms of returning proven talent as Jones was at least as established as O'Connell and Delaire. In sum, the 2023 roster will be par for the course if Ingram departs and a tick above the norm if Ingram returns, though having three key guys back is not different than the 2022 roster we had hoped was ready to get over the hump.
* The other question to ask is whether players under Haase improve over time, which is a key factor in whether it makes sense to be optimistic that this returning talent will get us over the hump next year. Here's a rough stab at what it looks like to me: da Silva, Sharma, Okpala, Davis, Wills, and White improved over time; Travis, Humphrey, Pickens, Delaire, Cartwright, and Sheffield plateaued; and Jones is a tougher call and still has more of the story to write (as is the case with O'Connell and Taitz after regressing this past year). I look at this and think the following: we can be fairly confident an established player showing us they can play will mean they won't completely disappear, but it's essentially a tossup whether an established guy improves or plateaus. It's not the case that you'd expect, for instance, Ingram, Jones, Keefe, and Angel all to take marked strides next year. What's likely to happen is two of them give us basically what they did this year and two give us significant but not huge improvements.
This exercise did not make me more optimistic but I want to take seriously the personnel-focused explanations for our troubles and the argument that we are poised to unlock a whole new level of play from what we've seen. From what I can see there's a real chance 2023 takes a step forward but no real evidence that there's been or is likely to be significant progress beyond the basic level across most of the Haase tenure, which has been remarkably consistent not only in the overall performance of the team but even in the level of performance of the most significant individuals, as demonstrated by this research.
