While we wait for the powers that be to make the big decision, I thought I'd take a look at some numbers.
I found this website via Pennlive.com - it looks like annual football expenses are $28M (Alabama's are $55M). I'm not sure if those expenses are netted vs scholarships (that info is listed, too). Stanford's expenses are equal to revenues (Bama's revenues are $61M); I'm not sure if that's a lucky one-off event, or if Stanford reports that way to show it's not profitable. The historical data are available, but i didn't check.
Let's assume they need $40M in expenses to be competitive going forward and let's assume no TV contract since I doubt they can get a deal like Notre Dame....
If we reverse engineer the numbers assuming a typical annual endowment payout model of 5% per year then Stanford could "endow" the football program with $800M (or about 2% of the $38B university endowment). To the extent that the $40M is offset by scholarship income, the number obviously drops. And with @anurag41 's investment acumen, the number drops even more! That said, this approach assumes a perpetuity, so maybe the endowment should/could be much less. I suppose the AD/football program could negotiate a one-time endowment carve out (i.e., no assistance from the University going forward) which seems like a reasonable solution (maybe the University transfers the long-term CTE responsibility as well). Frankly, I'm not aware of how truly separate the AD budget is from the University - any input is welcome. It's easy to play around with the numbers, and perhaps there's some major donor support out of the gate that builds financial momentum or even some TV revenue.
Anyway...
The major independents are Notre Dame (for the time being), BYU and Army, plus UConn. So there's a core of a schedule. My guess is that NBC money helps with Notre Dame's scheduling, and Stanford likely would have a problem finding real games given that these new super conferences will (probably) limit non-conference games. And assuming Stanford remains competitive, those teams probably won't want to schedule a competitive game. But who knows. Maybe Stanford is discussing co-independence with Notre Dame. But if the powers that be decide an independent can't play for the national championship and/or is limited to certain bowl games, then this is a non-starter.
Lots of assumptions here, but there's a path to independence in which Stanford could stand out in a crowd as well as maintain some/most of the ivory tower excellence. Food for thought while we operate in a vacuum.
I found this website via Pennlive.com - it looks like annual football expenses are $28M (Alabama's are $55M). I'm not sure if those expenses are netted vs scholarships (that info is listed, too). Stanford's expenses are equal to revenues (Bama's revenues are $61M); I'm not sure if that's a lucky one-off event, or if Stanford reports that way to show it's not profitable. The historical data are available, but i didn't check.
Let's assume they need $40M in expenses to be competitive going forward and let's assume no TV contract since I doubt they can get a deal like Notre Dame....
If we reverse engineer the numbers assuming a typical annual endowment payout model of 5% per year then Stanford could "endow" the football program with $800M (or about 2% of the $38B university endowment). To the extent that the $40M is offset by scholarship income, the number obviously drops. And with @anurag41 's investment acumen, the number drops even more! That said, this approach assumes a perpetuity, so maybe the endowment should/could be much less. I suppose the AD/football program could negotiate a one-time endowment carve out (i.e., no assistance from the University going forward) which seems like a reasonable solution (maybe the University transfers the long-term CTE responsibility as well). Frankly, I'm not aware of how truly separate the AD budget is from the University - any input is welcome. It's easy to play around with the numbers, and perhaps there's some major donor support out of the gate that builds financial momentum or even some TV revenue.
Anyway...
The major independents are Notre Dame (for the time being), BYU and Army, plus UConn. So there's a core of a schedule. My guess is that NBC money helps with Notre Dame's scheduling, and Stanford likely would have a problem finding real games given that these new super conferences will (probably) limit non-conference games. And assuming Stanford remains competitive, those teams probably won't want to schedule a competitive game. But who knows. Maybe Stanford is discussing co-independence with Notre Dame. But if the powers that be decide an independent can't play for the national championship and/or is limited to certain bowl games, then this is a non-starter.
Lots of assumptions here, but there's a path to independence in which Stanford could stand out in a crowd as well as maintain some/most of the ivory tower excellence. Food for thought while we operate in a vacuum.
