My self-imposed hiatus is officially over.
As exciting as it is to ponder all the tiebreaker scenarios given the Ducks thrilling victory over the Huskies today, the reality is that this is a 9-3 team at best. So without further adieu, here are my predictions for the remainder of the 2018 season:
* Stanford loses to ASU and Washington, knocking us out of Pac-12 contention and sending us to San Diego/Santa Clara instead of Pasadena/Phoenix/Dallas for the bowl season
* The Huskies rebound from today's loss by winning out and claiming the North. They do not get there without some help, however
* Ironically, it's the Cougs who end up providing the assist by upsetting Oregon at the Palouse next weekend
* USC wins the South at 9-3, dropping one to Utah and winning out (yes, that includes a victory over the mighty Irish)
* Washington wins the Pac-12 after an epic battle with the Trojans in the championship
* The conference gets shut out of the playoffs for the 2nd consecutive year
* Washington's consolation prize, however, is advancing to their first Rose Bowl in 18 years, where the 10-2 Michigan Wolverines await them
That's right folks- for the 3rd straight season, we watch yet another round of NY6 bowl games from the sidelines as a team we beat takes our spot thanks to a totally avoidable loss. In 2016, the Colorado loss allowed USC to play for the Rose Bowl instead of us (sorry Gary). In 2017, the San Diego State loss allowed Washington to play for the Fiesta Bowl instead of us. And my prediction is that in 2018, the Utah loss will end up costing us a shot at the Fiesta/Cotton Bowl as the Ducks end up taking our place at 10-2.
Be that as it may, finishing the season at 8-4 would mean Stanford ends up winning 4 of it's last 6 games. That would be quite an accomplishment for a team that looks as discombobulated as we do at the moment. Nevertheless, playing for the Netflix/Holiday Bowl when we know just how close we were to a NY6 bowl is really going to sting. The second half turnaround will look good on paper and give us some momentum heading into 2019. But at the end of the day, it will not be enough to overlook the disturbing trend that has come to define Stanford as of late: back-to-back losses in the first half of the season followed by a back-breaking loss somewhere in the second half. It's a narrative that has repeatedly knocked us out of the playoff conversation by early October and cost us a NY6 bowl game three years in a row.
I pray that I'm wrong or that somehow 2019 will be different. But I just can't shake this feeling that we're well on our way to becoming the Georgia Bulldogs under Mark Right: borderline elite over the first five or so years before regressing to a perennial 9-10 win program that becomes known for consistently performing well but continually falls just short of greatness. You can have a lot of good seasons and garner a healthy amount of respect with a consistent track record like that. But the 11-12 win seasons that defined us in the early part of the decade are starting to become a distant memory as we now find ourselves fighting just to stay relevant within the division. With Notre Dame, Washington, and Oregon all getting their act together and UCLA on the rise, we automatically have four opponents that can beat us on any given Saturday. And once USC finally finds a head coach who can wake up the sleeping giant, that's a rivalry that could very easily become one-sided affair.
Stanford continues to recruit at a very high level but I'm mystified by the oversimplification of our offense. No pre-snap movement, no misdirection, no play action, no bootlegs... heck even the Wildcat and Spider 3Y Bananas have pretty much gone by the wayside. We operate exclusively out of the toss pitch or shotgun formation and have become so predictable that the fans sitting up the nosebleeds know what's coming. As Fborg has repeatedly pointed out, we have the players to win. But our playcylling and offensive schemes are handicapping their ability to do so. I'm not totally sure what Shaw's methodology is behind removing so many wrinkles from our offense but it appears to me that there's a direct correlation between our regression from our former identity and the offensive struggles that have subsequently emerged in the post-Hogan years. And that's just the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively, things have been slowly coming apart at the seams since 2014 and it's hard to say whether that's on the coaching, recruiting, or some combination of both. There's no question Randy Hart will go down as one of the all-time greats but I would have never fathomed our D-line would become so porous in his absence. Scarlett & Shittu held things together in 2015, Thomas & Phillips did the same in 2016, but last season really exposed a lot of blemishes with Phillips acting as a one man wrecking crew. This season, we have virtually no one who's capable of playing up to that level and it's really held back the entire defensive unit as a whole. Adding insult to injury, our tackling has continually proven to be a problem and our safety depth has devolved to the point of using converted corners who lack the physicality and instincts to play the position. As frustrating as our offense can be at times, at least there are pieces in place that inspire optimism for the future. Defensively, we simply lack the bodies and the talent necessary to give me any reason to believe that a midseason turnaround is on it's way.
Jon Wilner put it best in his column last weekend when he said it feels like we're watching bizarro Stanford right now. Can't run the ball, consistently get beat on the lines of scrimmage, and continually get forced into throwing the ball as our only recourse to keep up with opponents. We used to feast on teams like that back in the day. Now we're the ones getting feasted on. We've allowed the last three quarterbacks we've faced to complete 77% of their passes and look like gods in the process. Meanwhile, every other team that's defended them has managed to apply pressure and make them look mortal. As exciting as it is to have finally uncovered a competent passing game, it feels like it's come at the expense of virtually everything else we used to be good at. I miss the old Stanford and the way we used to pulverize our opponents into submission. Nowadays, I'm forced to watch Georgia and Wisconsin just to catch a glimpse of what that still looks like (today's results notwithstanding). I refuse to completely give up hope that this program can get back to where it used to be (hence my rather optimistic 9-3 prediction on the season). But boy would it be nice to start seeing some signs of progress. Because right now, we're definitely not getting any better. And in the famous words of Joe Paterno, if you're not getting better, you're getting worse.
As exciting as it is to ponder all the tiebreaker scenarios given the Ducks thrilling victory over the Huskies today, the reality is that this is a 9-3 team at best. So without further adieu, here are my predictions for the remainder of the 2018 season:
* Stanford loses to ASU and Washington, knocking us out of Pac-12 contention and sending us to San Diego/Santa Clara instead of Pasadena/Phoenix/Dallas for the bowl season
* The Huskies rebound from today's loss by winning out and claiming the North. They do not get there without some help, however
* Ironically, it's the Cougs who end up providing the assist by upsetting Oregon at the Palouse next weekend
* USC wins the South at 9-3, dropping one to Utah and winning out (yes, that includes a victory over the mighty Irish)
* Washington wins the Pac-12 after an epic battle with the Trojans in the championship
* The conference gets shut out of the playoffs for the 2nd consecutive year
* Washington's consolation prize, however, is advancing to their first Rose Bowl in 18 years, where the 10-2 Michigan Wolverines await them
That's right folks- for the 3rd straight season, we watch yet another round of NY6 bowl games from the sidelines as a team we beat takes our spot thanks to a totally avoidable loss. In 2016, the Colorado loss allowed USC to play for the Rose Bowl instead of us (sorry Gary). In 2017, the San Diego State loss allowed Washington to play for the Fiesta Bowl instead of us. And my prediction is that in 2018, the Utah loss will end up costing us a shot at the Fiesta/Cotton Bowl as the Ducks end up taking our place at 10-2.
Be that as it may, finishing the season at 8-4 would mean Stanford ends up winning 4 of it's last 6 games. That would be quite an accomplishment for a team that looks as discombobulated as we do at the moment. Nevertheless, playing for the Netflix/Holiday Bowl when we know just how close we were to a NY6 bowl is really going to sting. The second half turnaround will look good on paper and give us some momentum heading into 2019. But at the end of the day, it will not be enough to overlook the disturbing trend that has come to define Stanford as of late: back-to-back losses in the first half of the season followed by a back-breaking loss somewhere in the second half. It's a narrative that has repeatedly knocked us out of the playoff conversation by early October and cost us a NY6 bowl game three years in a row.
I pray that I'm wrong or that somehow 2019 will be different. But I just can't shake this feeling that we're well on our way to becoming the Georgia Bulldogs under Mark Right: borderline elite over the first five or so years before regressing to a perennial 9-10 win program that becomes known for consistently performing well but continually falls just short of greatness. You can have a lot of good seasons and garner a healthy amount of respect with a consistent track record like that. But the 11-12 win seasons that defined us in the early part of the decade are starting to become a distant memory as we now find ourselves fighting just to stay relevant within the division. With Notre Dame, Washington, and Oregon all getting their act together and UCLA on the rise, we automatically have four opponents that can beat us on any given Saturday. And once USC finally finds a head coach who can wake up the sleeping giant, that's a rivalry that could very easily become one-sided affair.
Stanford continues to recruit at a very high level but I'm mystified by the oversimplification of our offense. No pre-snap movement, no misdirection, no play action, no bootlegs... heck even the Wildcat and Spider 3Y Bananas have pretty much gone by the wayside. We operate exclusively out of the toss pitch or shotgun formation and have become so predictable that the fans sitting up the nosebleeds know what's coming. As Fborg has repeatedly pointed out, we have the players to win. But our playcylling and offensive schemes are handicapping their ability to do so. I'm not totally sure what Shaw's methodology is behind removing so many wrinkles from our offense but it appears to me that there's a direct correlation between our regression from our former identity and the offensive struggles that have subsequently emerged in the post-Hogan years. And that's just the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively, things have been slowly coming apart at the seams since 2014 and it's hard to say whether that's on the coaching, recruiting, or some combination of both. There's no question Randy Hart will go down as one of the all-time greats but I would have never fathomed our D-line would become so porous in his absence. Scarlett & Shittu held things together in 2015, Thomas & Phillips did the same in 2016, but last season really exposed a lot of blemishes with Phillips acting as a one man wrecking crew. This season, we have virtually no one who's capable of playing up to that level and it's really held back the entire defensive unit as a whole. Adding insult to injury, our tackling has continually proven to be a problem and our safety depth has devolved to the point of using converted corners who lack the physicality and instincts to play the position. As frustrating as our offense can be at times, at least there are pieces in place that inspire optimism for the future. Defensively, we simply lack the bodies and the talent necessary to give me any reason to believe that a midseason turnaround is on it's way.
Jon Wilner put it best in his column last weekend when he said it feels like we're watching bizarro Stanford right now. Can't run the ball, consistently get beat on the lines of scrimmage, and continually get forced into throwing the ball as our only recourse to keep up with opponents. We used to feast on teams like that back in the day. Now we're the ones getting feasted on. We've allowed the last three quarterbacks we've faced to complete 77% of their passes and look like gods in the process. Meanwhile, every other team that's defended them has managed to apply pressure and make them look mortal. As exciting as it is to have finally uncovered a competent passing game, it feels like it's come at the expense of virtually everything else we used to be good at. I miss the old Stanford and the way we used to pulverize our opponents into submission. Nowadays, I'm forced to watch Georgia and Wisconsin just to catch a glimpse of what that still looks like (today's results notwithstanding). I refuse to completely give up hope that this program can get back to where it used to be (hence my rather optimistic 9-3 prediction on the season). But boy would it be nice to start seeing some signs of progress. Because right now, we're definitely not getting any better. And in the famous words of Joe Paterno, if you're not getting better, you're getting worse.
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