We're in a bit of a slow time in between Signing Day and spring practices and don't yet have any 2016 commits to dissect, so I thought I'd waste some time and take a look at forecasting how I think the Pac-12 looks in 2015 based on some metrics I like to look at. Note that this is meant to be edifying but not necessarily predictive. If I were making predictions, I'd err on the side of simply taking the previous year's conference rankings and making adjustments based on my own subjective sense of the health of the programs and their trajectories based on talent inflows/outflows. In such an analysis, I'd be big on Oregon and Arizona State (very glad we miss them and Oregon has to play them), would have USC and UCLA as essentially co-favorites in the South with ASU, and would view Stanford as a serious contender.
But this post is looking at some metrics I value to see if they tell us anything interesting. Those metrics, in no particular order, are:
- team recruiting rankings over the past five years to get a general sense of roster quality/depth
- returning players who were at least honorable mention all-conference the previous year to get a sense of impact talent returning, with particular value to guys who shined as first or second team performers
- QB situation
- returning defenders who were in the top 15 on the team in tackles the previous year to get a sense of proven defensive talent returning
- returning starting offensive linemen since a weak link there can really hurt you in the offense-heavy Pac-12
A lot to dig into, so let's get to it team-by-team:
Arizona
When I looked at the Rivals' recruiting rankings from 2011-2015 and gave the incoming true freshman class half weight, Arizona had a weighted average of 41.67, good for 8th in the conference and comparable to Utah. On paper, they're at a disadvantage in overall roster quality compared to USC and UCLA in the South.
Arizona's spring roster has five players who were at least honorable mention all-conference: LB Scooby Wright III, P Drew Riggleman, WR Cayleb Jones, QB Anu Soloman, and RB Nick Wilson. [Here and hereafter bolded players denote first or second team all-conference guys] Wright is the reigning conference defensive player of the year
and is obviously a huge deal to have anchoring a defense. This is also a fun core of offensive skill position guys. But it's a middling quantity of impact guys to be returning.
At quarterback, Arizona returns Anu Solomon, who made honorable mention all-conference as a redshirt freshman. He completed 58% of his passes for 270.9 yards per game and 28 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. His 130.7 passer rating was 12th in the Pac-12 (57th in the nation), so that's not good from a comparative perspective, though it is a ridiculous passer's conference. For just a bit of not-quite apples-to-apples comparison, Kevin Hogan was also honorable mention all-conference as a redshirt freshman and had a 147.9 passer rating. Though I thought it was surprising (and a bit of a reach given games played/statistical output) that Hogan made all-conference
that year, I think it is downright obnoxious that Solomon made it in 2014 ahead of Hogan. My overriding impression when I tuned Arizona on was that Solomon is deeply flawed in his decision-making. Despite him being a returning all-conference guy who will only be a redshirt sophomore, I am not yet ready to view him as a top-level Pac-12 QB.
On defense, Arizona returns six of the top eleven tacklers and ten of the top fifteen. Wright is the only star, and he may be the top college-level defender in the country, and on top of that they have five guys returning with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the Fiesta Bowl starting OL against Boise State, Arizona returns LG Lene Maiava, C Carter Wood, and RG Jacob Alsadek.
Overall Impression: Not bad metrics across the board, but nothing that special other than Scooby Wright and there's a lot of competition in the South. Going to be an uphill battle to repeat as a New Year's Six bowl participant. I think if RichRod can squeeze 10+ wins out again he will really have earned a reputation as an excellent coach.
Arizona State
Arizona State had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 35.78, good for 7th in the conference. To my eyes, allowing for large error bars in this metric, their talent is better on paper than their in-state rivals but not so much to be anywhere near the USC and UCLA level in the South, from a sheer talent across the roster perspective.
Arizona State's spring roster has eleven players who were at least honorable mention all-conference: RB DJ Foster, OL Nick Kelly, K Zane Gonzalez, LB DJ Calhoun, DB Lloyd Carrington, LB Salamo Fiso, LB Laiu Moeakiola, RB Demario Richard, DB Jordan Simone, OL Vi Teofilo, and OL Christian Westerman. This looks like one of the strongest groups of impact returners in the conference. Three-returning all-conference offensive linemen jumps out at me, as does the really strong back of the defense.
At QB, Arizona State has a somewhat known quantity at QB in Mike Bercovici, who will be a redshirt senior after taking the reins in four games last year. He completed 61.8% of his passes and had 12 touchdowns against 4 interceptions for a 144.1% passer rating. He's a less mobile type and is known for getting the ball out quickly.
On defense, they return nine of the top eleven tacklers and thirteen of the top fifteen. Seven of them had 5+ tackles for loss. As noted above, five of them are returning all-conference guys. Yowza, look out for that defense. Oh wait, we don't have to!
Among the Sun Bowl starting OL against Duke, Arizona State returns: LG Christian Westerman, C Nick Kelly, and RG Vi Teofilo. (All three are all-conference)
Overall Impression: To me, this is an extremely strong team across the board almost whatever metric you look at, with the significant exception of QB (which may not be bad). They're my pick as the most under-appreciated team in the conference for 2015. While the South is very competitive and I wouldn't be so bold as to confidently predict who will come out of it, Arizona State is a very legitimate contender for the playoffs, which would make them a national title contender. I certainly think New Year's Six is a legitimate aspiration. They will not be viewed in the preseason in the same category as Ohio State, TCU, Alabama, and USC - and the differences at QB alone make that fair - but if I had a vote I'd have them in my preseason top 10.
Cal
Cal had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 29.44, good for 6th in the conference. That's a tad behind Stanford and Washington and more significantly behind Oregon in the North.
Cal's spring roster has five players who were honorable mention all-conference: TE Stephen Anderson, LB Michael Barton, OL Chris Borrayo, QB Jared Goff, and RB Daniel Lasco. No top end impact players (by this metric at least - Goff could be that guy) but a decent showing that puts them in the top half of the North in returning all-conference
players. Their proven impact talent is heavily tilted toward the offense, however, to say the least.
QB is the shining spot for Cal, with Jared Goff emerging as potentially one of the top prospects in the nation. After making honorable mention all-conference as both a true freshman and a true sophomore, he is back as the man. As a true sophomore, he completed 62% of his passes for 331.1 yards per game and 35 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. His 147.3 passer rating was 4th in the conference and 2nd among all returners, good for 21st in the country. With a supporting cast much worse than his competitors at the top of the QB heap in the conference, Goff is a legitimate top-tier guy.
On defense, they return ten of the top eleven tacklers and twelve of the top fifteen. Barton is the headliner and is one of four returners with 5+ tackles for loss. This was a bad defense in 2014 and has a long way to go, but returning pretty much everybody is as good a start as any.
Among the starting OL against BYU (also the Big Game starting OL), Cal returns: LT Steven Moore, LG Chris Borrayo, and RT Jordan Rigsbee. (Borrayo all-conference)
Overall Impression: Don't sleep on the Bears. They appear to be moving in the right direction or, at least, are a dangerous team due to having a future NFL QB. With so much of the North down this year, it could be an interesting year in Strawberry Canyon. May be an interesting test case of the difference between playing in the North vs. the South at this point in time, as well as the tyranny of expectations/freedom of the lack thereof. With these kinds of metrics, a team in the South might face tough sledding but in the North I think Cal could win some games.
Colorado
Colorado had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 61.33, 11th in the conference. On paper, Colorado lags far behind all others except Washington State in roster quality.
Colorado's spring roster has three guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: WR Nelson Spruce,
QB Sefo Liufao, and DL Josh Tupou. Slim pickings. One of the top receivers in the conference and a returning QB to get him the ball, so that's something but not nearly enough in a loaded South.
At QB, Colorado returns Sefo Liufao, who will be a true junior. He completed 65.3% of his passes for 266.7 yards per game and 28 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. His 131.8 passer rating was 11th in the conference and 55th in the nation. No world-beater. Frankly, I think both Solomon and Liufao making honorable mention all-conference was
probably a function of their coaches voting for them or something, if that's allowed.
On defense, they return nine of the top eleven tacklers and eleven of the top fifteen. The individuals don't jump out at me but, like Cal, Colorado has a lot of guys returning to give hope the defense will improve.
Among the starting OL in the finale against Utah, Colorado returns: LT Jeromy Irwin, C Alex Kelley, and RT Stephane Nembot.
Overall Impression: I think they may be more competitive in 2015, maybe significantly less so, but they look outgunned in the South.
Oregon
Oregon had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 18.11, 2nd in the conference. Of particular note, Oregon's best recruiting years were in 2011 and 2012, so the upperclass cohort may be relatively more talented for them, a good reason to view them as having a very strong roster for 2015.
Oregon doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departures they have six guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: TE Pharaoh Brown, RB Royce Freeman, DL DeForest Buckner, AP/ST Charles Nelson, WR Byron Marshall, LB Joe Walker. Oregon deserves the benefit of the doubt as the class of the conference, but this isn't as intimidating as some of the returning groups in the South. Brown is recovering from a horrific leg injury and if/when he returns, and at what quality, remains to be seen. But Oregon does have very high-quality guys returning on both sides of the ball.
Not captured in either of the above metrics is Walter Payton Award runner-up QB Vernon Adams Jr. transferring in as a likely impact player at the most important position. His stats are better than everybody's, by far, but I won't repeat them here as it's a lower-level and not at all apples-to-apples. But when he's played Pac-12 teams he has donkey stomped them. I'm pretty terrified of what he can do at Oregon. [My solace is that he's replacing the top player in the country, so even if he's as great as I expect it won't dramatically change the competitive balance, I don't think] He's at a disadvantage not being able to work out with any college team the rest of the academic year and having to start his learning curve at Oregon only a couple months before the season, but I think most expect that his talent in that system will be explosive and that he's a top tier Pac-12 guy.
On defense, they have five of the top eleven tacklers returning and nine of the top fifteen. Buckner is one of the top players in the conference and he and Walker are among the six guys with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the national championship game against Ohio State, Oregon returns: RG Cameron Hunt and RT Tyrell Crosby. (Two-time honorable mention all-conference tackle Tyler Johnstone missed 2014 with injury and will be back, so don't cry for Oregon's lack of "returning starters")
Overall Impression: On the one hand, kings until proven otherwise. On the other, glimmers of hope for the rest of the conference as Oregon's returning stars aren't an intimidating group, the defense must replace a lot, there is the inherent uncertainty of a new QB, and they must codge together a new OL. Still the favorites in the North and, I submit, a reasonable New Year's Six pick by virtue of the Adams transfer, but there may be vulnerabilities. I don't think it's outlandish to think of them getting knocked off as North champs.
Oregon State
Oregon State had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 49.33, 10th in the conference. Aside from Washington State, Oregon State lags far behind the rest of the North in how recruiting rankings judge their talent.
Oregon State has nobody on their roster who made even honorable mention all-conference. As I mentioned at the time the all-conference team was announced, I can't recall seeing a team not return any impact guys in the years I've been looking at this metric. With Riley leaving for Nebraska, needless to say it will be a rebuilding year. Pitiful to not have any returning all-conference guys.
At QB, there is a whole lot of uncertainty. Luke Del Rio had 18 ineffectual pass attempts last year and nobody else has any experience. They have mid-year transfer possibilities, true freshmen, unproven guys on the roster all trying to catch the eye of the new coach (with a new spread scheme). Seems unlikely to be very good.
On defense, they return two of the top eleven tacklers and six of the top fifteen. Two of those guys had 5+ tackles for loss. Oh my gosh, everywhere you look Oregon State just looks pathetic. No wonder Riley left.
Among the starting OL in the Civil War against Oregon, Oregon State returns: LT Sean Harlow, LG Fred Lauina, C Josh Mitchell, RG Gavin Andrews, and RT Dustin Stanton.
Overall Impression: Hey, at least they have an intact young offensive line developing together! That's not enough for me to think they'll be even decent in 2015.
Stanford
Stanford had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 25.33, 5th in the conference. This score is substantially dragged down by the painfully small 2013 class. On one hand, that may mean this score understates the quality of players spread across most of our roster. On the other, the 2013 class is now in its redshirt sophomore year, the prime of when guys should be emerging, and it hurts that we had such a small class.
Stanford's spring roster has five guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: TE Austin Hooper, OL Kyle Murphy, LB Kevin Anderson, DB Zach Hoffpauir, and LB Blake Martinez. I've included Hoffpauir because he's on the roster and I don't know what the circumstances might be for all the players on the other rosters, but as we know there is a fair shot Hoffpauir is off playing baseball. Compared to where we've been, this is disappointing. We were where UCLA and Arizona State are now in terms of returning all-conference talent throughout our BCS run. Our saving grace is that Oregon isn't much ahead of us, so we're hopefully not hopelessly outgunned in impact talent. Hooper joins Oregon's Royce Freeman as the only freshmen/sophomores on the first or second team and I continue to think he's a mega talent we're lucky to have.
At QB, Stanford has Kevin Hogan back for one last year. As we know, he's an extraordinarily experienced fifth year senior who was all-conference as a redshirt freshman and has had moments of success and inconsistency since then. As a redshirt junior, he completed 65.7% of his passes for 214.8 yards per game and 19 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. His 145.8 passer rating was 5th/6th in the conference (Pac-12 stats and national stats differ by a few decimals for some reason) and 24th in the nation. Many here think he had a mediocre year despite the good efficiency numbers, but some others also think that he was dealing with some circumstances that provide hope that 2015 will be better.
On defense, Stanford returns four of the top eleven tacklers and six of the top fifteen. Stanford returns four guys with 5+ tackles for loss. This, as we know, is the weak spot - not much proven experience returning on defense. I don't think it necessarily looks dire - Oregon looks stronger than us by this metric but not hugely so - but definitely the weak spot.
Among the starting OL in the Foster Farms Bowl against Maryland, Stanford returns: LG Josh Garnett, C Graham Shuler, RG Johnny Caspers, and RT Kyle Murphy.
Overall Impression: As I've posted before, I'm bullish on 2015 for various reasons. Looking at these metrics alone, it's a mixed picture. Talent across the roster that is very competitive in the North, the second best group of impact talent in the North, an above-average QB who until he proves otherwise probably doesn't separate us from the pack, one of the most unproven defenses in the entire conference (but coming off an extremely high baseline), and a good offensive line. Where does that leave us? Reasonable minds can disagree.
UCLA
UCLA had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 20.00, 3rd in the conference. The same analysis as for Stanford applies to UCLA since their 2011 class was bad. In UCLA's case, however, that class is now the redshirt senior class so an argument can be made that they are lacking the true veteran oomph of some other schools.
UCLA doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departures they have 13 guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: DB Ishmael Adams, OL Jake Brendel, DL Kenny Clark, LB Myles Jack, DB Fabian Moreau, OL Caleb Benenoch, TE Thomas Duarte, WR Jordan Payton, RB Paul Perkins, OL Alex Redmond, OL Scott Quessenberry, DL Eddie Vanderdoes, and DB Jaleel Wadood. This is the most eye-opening group of impact talent in the conference, both in terms of quantity and first/second teamers. UCLA is loaded for next year. A pair of complete studs on defense in Adams and Jack. Four returning all-conference offensive linemen. Every level of the defense and every position group on offense save QB will have all-conference representation.
At QB, it is not quite as open and uncertain as Oregon State but not far behind. The two names most seem to expect to emerge are Jerry Neuheisel, who has toiled as a backup and shown some signs he can be serviceable, and our favorite, Josh Rosen. If a true freshman is indeed starting it sure will be interesting, with one of the mosttalented/championship-ready
rosters in the nation but a long track record in college football of QB being a tough position to step in at right away.
On defense, UCLA returns eight of the top eleven tacklers and eleven of the top fifteen. A bevy of bold-faced names above, truly a star-studded defense, though they only match Stanford's number of four guys with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the Alamo Bowl against Kansas State, UCLA returns: LT Conor McDermott, LG Alex Redmond, C Jake Brendel, RG Scott Quesenberry, and RT Caleb Benenoch. [Intact returning OL with four all-conference]
Overall Impression: No question about it national title contender in every dimension I've looked at, except quarterback. Which is the most important thing. Will be fascinating for UCLA. They are absolutely loaded, but they need a QB. Sorry folks, but we're going to be hearing a lot about Rosen, whether he's playing or not.
USC
USC had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 7.89, tops in the conference. On the recruiting trail, there is no doubt USC is the big boy. It remains to be seen whether there are lingering effects of the sanctions USC is just now coming out of. But they do have championship talent on the roster.
USC doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departures they have seven guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: OL Max Tuerk, DB Su'a Cravens, AP/ST JuJu Smith, DB Adoree' Jackson, QB Cody Kessler, OL Toa Lobendahn, and OL Viane Talamaivao. A good mix of high end talent, though, notably for a team that is a trendy playoff pick, not as much as might be expected given the hype. USC always has talent, the question is whether depth can return to being elite or even good so soon after the bite of sanctions. In terms of what returns, on paper the OL is monstrous, with a returning first teamer anchoring the center and two guys who made all-conference as freshmen.
Most significant is Kessler. As a redshirt junior, Kessler completed 69.7% of his passes for 294.3 yards per game and 39 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. His 167.1 passer rating was 2nd in the conference (tops among returners) and tied for third in the nation, behind only Marcus Mariota and JT Barrett. It is strange to say this about a USC QB, but I think he was the most underrated player in the nation and weirdly and unfairly overshadowed in LA by Brett Hundley. Kessler should be one of the top Heisman candidates in the nation in 2015 and I would say is the marquee player in the Pac-12.
On defense, USC returns seven of the top eleven tacklers and eleven of the top fifteen tacklers. Cravens and Jackson are superstars (Jackson was honorable mention but was a freshman and is a big, big talent). There is lots of good quantity here, but only three returners with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the Holiday Bowl against Nebraska, USC returns: LT Toa Lobendahn, LG Damien Mama, C Max Tuerk, RG Viane Talamaivao, and RT Zach Banner [Amazing fact: in addition to this line including three all-conference guys, two of them, Lobendahn and Talamaivao, were true freshman last year and Mama was too.]
Overall Impression: It's all about Cody Kessler and him being surrounded by loads of highly-touted talent. The impact talent doesn't jump out at you like UCLA or Arizona State, but I don't think the hype is over-heated, or at least not significantly so, because QB is the most important position on the field and USC has one of the best in the country. Will be interesting to see if this all comes together for the Trojans, but they're a legit contender. They have Kessler, which is huge, and he's surrounded by all kinds of talent on both sides of the ball.
Utah
Utah had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 43.67, 9th in the conference. Perhaps to the surprise of some, they are at an Arizona-level talent-wise, on paper.
Utah doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departure they have six guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: RB Devontae Booker, K Andy Phillips, P Tom Hackett, DL Hunter Dimick, DL Lowell Lotulelei, and LB Jared Norris. One of the top running backs in the conference, studly special teams, and a good core for the front seven. Solid group.
True senior Travis Wilson returns for his fourth year as the primary starting QB. Last year he completed 60.7% of his passes for 166.9 yards per game and 18 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. His 134.7 passer rating was 10th in the conference and 49th in the nation.
On defense, Utah returns eight of the top eleven tacklers and ten of the top fifteen. They return four guys with 5+ tackles for loss. Dimick, Norris, Lotulei, and Brandon Fanaika's brother Jason look like a #partyinthebackfield level disruptive front. It will be interesting to see if they can sustain this with stud Nate Orchard gone, but I'm thinking that this looks like a studly defense for 2015.
Among the starting OL in the Las Vegas Bowl against Colorado State, Utah returns: LG Isaac Asiata, C Siaosi Aiono, RG Salesi Uhatafe, and RT JJ Dielman.
Overall Impression: Serious darkhorse. Studly defense, studly special teams, and the offense has one of the top backs in the conference running behind an offensive line that returns mostly intact. The QB is the limiting factor for being a top contender in my opinion, but he'll be a four year starter and they could do worse. Watch for them. That is, in games not involving Stanford: as with Arizona State we miss these scary guys!
Washington
Washington had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 25.11, 4th in the conference and a statistically insignificant shade ahead of Stanford. And that advantage over Stanford owes to the gift of Stanford's 2013 class. Washington has very competitive talent on paper, but it may or may not be preferable to Stanford's, which, it should also be noted, typically rates with Oregon as one of the top over-achievers in the conference.
Washington's spring roster has three guys who were honorable mention all-conference: DB Budda Baker, RS John Ross, and K Cameron Van Winckle. Red alert in Seattle from an impact talent perspective. No high-end impact guys and two of the three returners who made honorable mention got the nod for their special teams play. I think Baker will be a good one but this is very thin. Given the above paragraph on recruiting, clearly Washington's roster is under-performing right now.
Cyler Miles returns at QB. As a redshirt sophomore, he completed 66.6% of his passes for 199.75 yards per game and 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. His 142.4 passer rating was 9th in the conference and 32nd in the nation.
On defense, Washington returns six of the top eleven tacklers and eight of the top fifteen. That's a mediocre amount returning and nobody returns with more than 2 tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the Cactus Bowl against Oklahoma State, Washington returns: LG Siosifa Tufunga.
Overall Impression: Unless Coach Pete has a rabbit in his hat, I foresee more under-achieving their recruiting rankings. Don't look good in terms of impact talent or returners on defense, may be good at QB but may continue to be mediocre, and look horrible in terms of OL continuity. I'm telling you, weird as it sounds, I think Cal has a much better shot in the North.
Washington State
Washington State had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 61.67, dead last in the conference. Colorado and Washington State barely recruit like power conference teams. WSU lags behind Oregon State in talent and is way behind the rest of the North.
Washington State doesn't have a spring roster out but didn't have any early NFL departures so if you assume everybody is back they have two guys who were honorable mention all-conference: LB Jeremiah Allison and OL Joe Dahl. [Note that DB Daquawn Brown is also an honorable mention guy with eligibility remaining but has reportedly been dismissed from the
team.] Like their home-state rival, very thin and no first or second teamers. Outside of Oregon, the level of impact talent in the Pacific Northwest is bleak. This speaks to why I tend to think Stanford is an attractive darkhorse for 2015: there isn't a lot of competition for Oregon besides Stanford in the North.
At QB, it looks like it will be walk-on Luke Falk. As a redshirt freshman, he completed 64.2% of his passes for 309.8 yards per game and 13 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He didn't qualify for the leader boards but had a 140.35 passer rating.
On defense, Washington State returns six of the top eleven tacklers and ten of the top fifteen. They have a surprising (to me) five guys with 5+ tackles for loss, even with defensive star Brown dismissed.
Among the starting OL in the Apple Cup against Washington, Washington State returns: LT Joe Dahl, LG Gunnar Eklund, C Riley Sorensen, RG Eduardo Middleton, and RT Jacob Seydel.
Overall Impression: Look like cellar dwellers with a potentially good offensive line. Who knows what the Pirate can do with it?
Thoughts?
This post was edited on 2/23 7:07 PM by msqueri
But this post is looking at some metrics I value to see if they tell us anything interesting. Those metrics, in no particular order, are:
- team recruiting rankings over the past five years to get a general sense of roster quality/depth
- returning players who were at least honorable mention all-conference the previous year to get a sense of impact talent returning, with particular value to guys who shined as first or second team performers
- QB situation
- returning defenders who were in the top 15 on the team in tackles the previous year to get a sense of proven defensive talent returning
- returning starting offensive linemen since a weak link there can really hurt you in the offense-heavy Pac-12
A lot to dig into, so let's get to it team-by-team:
Arizona
When I looked at the Rivals' recruiting rankings from 2011-2015 and gave the incoming true freshman class half weight, Arizona had a weighted average of 41.67, good for 8th in the conference and comparable to Utah. On paper, they're at a disadvantage in overall roster quality compared to USC and UCLA in the South.
Arizona's spring roster has five players who were at least honorable mention all-conference: LB Scooby Wright III, P Drew Riggleman, WR Cayleb Jones, QB Anu Soloman, and RB Nick Wilson. [Here and hereafter bolded players denote first or second team all-conference guys] Wright is the reigning conference defensive player of the year
and is obviously a huge deal to have anchoring a defense. This is also a fun core of offensive skill position guys. But it's a middling quantity of impact guys to be returning.
At quarterback, Arizona returns Anu Solomon, who made honorable mention all-conference as a redshirt freshman. He completed 58% of his passes for 270.9 yards per game and 28 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. His 130.7 passer rating was 12th in the Pac-12 (57th in the nation), so that's not good from a comparative perspective, though it is a ridiculous passer's conference. For just a bit of not-quite apples-to-apples comparison, Kevin Hogan was also honorable mention all-conference as a redshirt freshman and had a 147.9 passer rating. Though I thought it was surprising (and a bit of a reach given games played/statistical output) that Hogan made all-conference
that year, I think it is downright obnoxious that Solomon made it in 2014 ahead of Hogan. My overriding impression when I tuned Arizona on was that Solomon is deeply flawed in his decision-making. Despite him being a returning all-conference guy who will only be a redshirt sophomore, I am not yet ready to view him as a top-level Pac-12 QB.
On defense, Arizona returns six of the top eleven tacklers and ten of the top fifteen. Wright is the only star, and he may be the top college-level defender in the country, and on top of that they have five guys returning with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the Fiesta Bowl starting OL against Boise State, Arizona returns LG Lene Maiava, C Carter Wood, and RG Jacob Alsadek.
Overall Impression: Not bad metrics across the board, but nothing that special other than Scooby Wright and there's a lot of competition in the South. Going to be an uphill battle to repeat as a New Year's Six bowl participant. I think if RichRod can squeeze 10+ wins out again he will really have earned a reputation as an excellent coach.
Arizona State
Arizona State had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 35.78, good for 7th in the conference. To my eyes, allowing for large error bars in this metric, their talent is better on paper than their in-state rivals but not so much to be anywhere near the USC and UCLA level in the South, from a sheer talent across the roster perspective.
Arizona State's spring roster has eleven players who were at least honorable mention all-conference: RB DJ Foster, OL Nick Kelly, K Zane Gonzalez, LB DJ Calhoun, DB Lloyd Carrington, LB Salamo Fiso, LB Laiu Moeakiola, RB Demario Richard, DB Jordan Simone, OL Vi Teofilo, and OL Christian Westerman. This looks like one of the strongest groups of impact returners in the conference. Three-returning all-conference offensive linemen jumps out at me, as does the really strong back of the defense.
At QB, Arizona State has a somewhat known quantity at QB in Mike Bercovici, who will be a redshirt senior after taking the reins in four games last year. He completed 61.8% of his passes and had 12 touchdowns against 4 interceptions for a 144.1% passer rating. He's a less mobile type and is known for getting the ball out quickly.
On defense, they return nine of the top eleven tacklers and thirteen of the top fifteen. Seven of them had 5+ tackles for loss. As noted above, five of them are returning all-conference guys. Yowza, look out for that defense. Oh wait, we don't have to!
Among the Sun Bowl starting OL against Duke, Arizona State returns: LG Christian Westerman, C Nick Kelly, and RG Vi Teofilo. (All three are all-conference)
Overall Impression: To me, this is an extremely strong team across the board almost whatever metric you look at, with the significant exception of QB (which may not be bad). They're my pick as the most under-appreciated team in the conference for 2015. While the South is very competitive and I wouldn't be so bold as to confidently predict who will come out of it, Arizona State is a very legitimate contender for the playoffs, which would make them a national title contender. I certainly think New Year's Six is a legitimate aspiration. They will not be viewed in the preseason in the same category as Ohio State, TCU, Alabama, and USC - and the differences at QB alone make that fair - but if I had a vote I'd have them in my preseason top 10.
Cal
Cal had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 29.44, good for 6th in the conference. That's a tad behind Stanford and Washington and more significantly behind Oregon in the North.
Cal's spring roster has five players who were honorable mention all-conference: TE Stephen Anderson, LB Michael Barton, OL Chris Borrayo, QB Jared Goff, and RB Daniel Lasco. No top end impact players (by this metric at least - Goff could be that guy) but a decent showing that puts them in the top half of the North in returning all-conference
players. Their proven impact talent is heavily tilted toward the offense, however, to say the least.
QB is the shining spot for Cal, with Jared Goff emerging as potentially one of the top prospects in the nation. After making honorable mention all-conference as both a true freshman and a true sophomore, he is back as the man. As a true sophomore, he completed 62% of his passes for 331.1 yards per game and 35 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. His 147.3 passer rating was 4th in the conference and 2nd among all returners, good for 21st in the country. With a supporting cast much worse than his competitors at the top of the QB heap in the conference, Goff is a legitimate top-tier guy.
On defense, they return ten of the top eleven tacklers and twelve of the top fifteen. Barton is the headliner and is one of four returners with 5+ tackles for loss. This was a bad defense in 2014 and has a long way to go, but returning pretty much everybody is as good a start as any.
Among the starting OL against BYU (also the Big Game starting OL), Cal returns: LT Steven Moore, LG Chris Borrayo, and RT Jordan Rigsbee. (Borrayo all-conference)
Overall Impression: Don't sleep on the Bears. They appear to be moving in the right direction or, at least, are a dangerous team due to having a future NFL QB. With so much of the North down this year, it could be an interesting year in Strawberry Canyon. May be an interesting test case of the difference between playing in the North vs. the South at this point in time, as well as the tyranny of expectations/freedom of the lack thereof. With these kinds of metrics, a team in the South might face tough sledding but in the North I think Cal could win some games.
Colorado
Colorado had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 61.33, 11th in the conference. On paper, Colorado lags far behind all others except Washington State in roster quality.
Colorado's spring roster has three guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: WR Nelson Spruce,
QB Sefo Liufao, and DL Josh Tupou. Slim pickings. One of the top receivers in the conference and a returning QB to get him the ball, so that's something but not nearly enough in a loaded South.
At QB, Colorado returns Sefo Liufao, who will be a true junior. He completed 65.3% of his passes for 266.7 yards per game and 28 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. His 131.8 passer rating was 11th in the conference and 55th in the nation. No world-beater. Frankly, I think both Solomon and Liufao making honorable mention all-conference was
probably a function of their coaches voting for them or something, if that's allowed.
On defense, they return nine of the top eleven tacklers and eleven of the top fifteen. The individuals don't jump out at me but, like Cal, Colorado has a lot of guys returning to give hope the defense will improve.
Among the starting OL in the finale against Utah, Colorado returns: LT Jeromy Irwin, C Alex Kelley, and RT Stephane Nembot.
Overall Impression: I think they may be more competitive in 2015, maybe significantly less so, but they look outgunned in the South.
Oregon
Oregon had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 18.11, 2nd in the conference. Of particular note, Oregon's best recruiting years were in 2011 and 2012, so the upperclass cohort may be relatively more talented for them, a good reason to view them as having a very strong roster for 2015.
Oregon doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departures they have six guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: TE Pharaoh Brown, RB Royce Freeman, DL DeForest Buckner, AP/ST Charles Nelson, WR Byron Marshall, LB Joe Walker. Oregon deserves the benefit of the doubt as the class of the conference, but this isn't as intimidating as some of the returning groups in the South. Brown is recovering from a horrific leg injury and if/when he returns, and at what quality, remains to be seen. But Oregon does have very high-quality guys returning on both sides of the ball.
Not captured in either of the above metrics is Walter Payton Award runner-up QB Vernon Adams Jr. transferring in as a likely impact player at the most important position. His stats are better than everybody's, by far, but I won't repeat them here as it's a lower-level and not at all apples-to-apples. But when he's played Pac-12 teams he has donkey stomped them. I'm pretty terrified of what he can do at Oregon. [My solace is that he's replacing the top player in the country, so even if he's as great as I expect it won't dramatically change the competitive balance, I don't think] He's at a disadvantage not being able to work out with any college team the rest of the academic year and having to start his learning curve at Oregon only a couple months before the season, but I think most expect that his talent in that system will be explosive and that he's a top tier Pac-12 guy.
On defense, they have five of the top eleven tacklers returning and nine of the top fifteen. Buckner is one of the top players in the conference and he and Walker are among the six guys with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the national championship game against Ohio State, Oregon returns: RG Cameron Hunt and RT Tyrell Crosby. (Two-time honorable mention all-conference tackle Tyler Johnstone missed 2014 with injury and will be back, so don't cry for Oregon's lack of "returning starters")
Overall Impression: On the one hand, kings until proven otherwise. On the other, glimmers of hope for the rest of the conference as Oregon's returning stars aren't an intimidating group, the defense must replace a lot, there is the inherent uncertainty of a new QB, and they must codge together a new OL. Still the favorites in the North and, I submit, a reasonable New Year's Six pick by virtue of the Adams transfer, but there may be vulnerabilities. I don't think it's outlandish to think of them getting knocked off as North champs.
Oregon State
Oregon State had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 49.33, 10th in the conference. Aside from Washington State, Oregon State lags far behind the rest of the North in how recruiting rankings judge their talent.
Oregon State has nobody on their roster who made even honorable mention all-conference. As I mentioned at the time the all-conference team was announced, I can't recall seeing a team not return any impact guys in the years I've been looking at this metric. With Riley leaving for Nebraska, needless to say it will be a rebuilding year. Pitiful to not have any returning all-conference guys.
At QB, there is a whole lot of uncertainty. Luke Del Rio had 18 ineffectual pass attempts last year and nobody else has any experience. They have mid-year transfer possibilities, true freshmen, unproven guys on the roster all trying to catch the eye of the new coach (with a new spread scheme). Seems unlikely to be very good.
On defense, they return two of the top eleven tacklers and six of the top fifteen. Two of those guys had 5+ tackles for loss. Oh my gosh, everywhere you look Oregon State just looks pathetic. No wonder Riley left.
Among the starting OL in the Civil War against Oregon, Oregon State returns: LT Sean Harlow, LG Fred Lauina, C Josh Mitchell, RG Gavin Andrews, and RT Dustin Stanton.
Overall Impression: Hey, at least they have an intact young offensive line developing together! That's not enough for me to think they'll be even decent in 2015.
Stanford
Stanford had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 25.33, 5th in the conference. This score is substantially dragged down by the painfully small 2013 class. On one hand, that may mean this score understates the quality of players spread across most of our roster. On the other, the 2013 class is now in its redshirt sophomore year, the prime of when guys should be emerging, and it hurts that we had such a small class.
Stanford's spring roster has five guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: TE Austin Hooper, OL Kyle Murphy, LB Kevin Anderson, DB Zach Hoffpauir, and LB Blake Martinez. I've included Hoffpauir because he's on the roster and I don't know what the circumstances might be for all the players on the other rosters, but as we know there is a fair shot Hoffpauir is off playing baseball. Compared to where we've been, this is disappointing. We were where UCLA and Arizona State are now in terms of returning all-conference talent throughout our BCS run. Our saving grace is that Oregon isn't much ahead of us, so we're hopefully not hopelessly outgunned in impact talent. Hooper joins Oregon's Royce Freeman as the only freshmen/sophomores on the first or second team and I continue to think he's a mega talent we're lucky to have.
At QB, Stanford has Kevin Hogan back for one last year. As we know, he's an extraordinarily experienced fifth year senior who was all-conference as a redshirt freshman and has had moments of success and inconsistency since then. As a redshirt junior, he completed 65.7% of his passes for 214.8 yards per game and 19 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. His 145.8 passer rating was 5th/6th in the conference (Pac-12 stats and national stats differ by a few decimals for some reason) and 24th in the nation. Many here think he had a mediocre year despite the good efficiency numbers, but some others also think that he was dealing with some circumstances that provide hope that 2015 will be better.
On defense, Stanford returns four of the top eleven tacklers and six of the top fifteen. Stanford returns four guys with 5+ tackles for loss. This, as we know, is the weak spot - not much proven experience returning on defense. I don't think it necessarily looks dire - Oregon looks stronger than us by this metric but not hugely so - but definitely the weak spot.
Among the starting OL in the Foster Farms Bowl against Maryland, Stanford returns: LG Josh Garnett, C Graham Shuler, RG Johnny Caspers, and RT Kyle Murphy.
Overall Impression: As I've posted before, I'm bullish on 2015 for various reasons. Looking at these metrics alone, it's a mixed picture. Talent across the roster that is very competitive in the North, the second best group of impact talent in the North, an above-average QB who until he proves otherwise probably doesn't separate us from the pack, one of the most unproven defenses in the entire conference (but coming off an extremely high baseline), and a good offensive line. Where does that leave us? Reasonable minds can disagree.
UCLA
UCLA had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 20.00, 3rd in the conference. The same analysis as for Stanford applies to UCLA since their 2011 class was bad. In UCLA's case, however, that class is now the redshirt senior class so an argument can be made that they are lacking the true veteran oomph of some other schools.
UCLA doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departures they have 13 guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: DB Ishmael Adams, OL Jake Brendel, DL Kenny Clark, LB Myles Jack, DB Fabian Moreau, OL Caleb Benenoch, TE Thomas Duarte, WR Jordan Payton, RB Paul Perkins, OL Alex Redmond, OL Scott Quessenberry, DL Eddie Vanderdoes, and DB Jaleel Wadood. This is the most eye-opening group of impact talent in the conference, both in terms of quantity and first/second teamers. UCLA is loaded for next year. A pair of complete studs on defense in Adams and Jack. Four returning all-conference offensive linemen. Every level of the defense and every position group on offense save QB will have all-conference representation.
At QB, it is not quite as open and uncertain as Oregon State but not far behind. The two names most seem to expect to emerge are Jerry Neuheisel, who has toiled as a backup and shown some signs he can be serviceable, and our favorite, Josh Rosen. If a true freshman is indeed starting it sure will be interesting, with one of the mosttalented/championship-ready
rosters in the nation but a long track record in college football of QB being a tough position to step in at right away.
On defense, UCLA returns eight of the top eleven tacklers and eleven of the top fifteen. A bevy of bold-faced names above, truly a star-studded defense, though they only match Stanford's number of four guys with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the Alamo Bowl against Kansas State, UCLA returns: LT Conor McDermott, LG Alex Redmond, C Jake Brendel, RG Scott Quesenberry, and RT Caleb Benenoch. [Intact returning OL with four all-conference]
Overall Impression: No question about it national title contender in every dimension I've looked at, except quarterback. Which is the most important thing. Will be fascinating for UCLA. They are absolutely loaded, but they need a QB. Sorry folks, but we're going to be hearing a lot about Rosen, whether he's playing or not.
USC
USC had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 7.89, tops in the conference. On the recruiting trail, there is no doubt USC is the big boy. It remains to be seen whether there are lingering effects of the sanctions USC is just now coming out of. But they do have championship talent on the roster.
USC doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departures they have seven guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: OL Max Tuerk, DB Su'a Cravens, AP/ST JuJu Smith, DB Adoree' Jackson, QB Cody Kessler, OL Toa Lobendahn, and OL Viane Talamaivao. A good mix of high end talent, though, notably for a team that is a trendy playoff pick, not as much as might be expected given the hype. USC always has talent, the question is whether depth can return to being elite or even good so soon after the bite of sanctions. In terms of what returns, on paper the OL is monstrous, with a returning first teamer anchoring the center and two guys who made all-conference as freshmen.
Most significant is Kessler. As a redshirt junior, Kessler completed 69.7% of his passes for 294.3 yards per game and 39 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. His 167.1 passer rating was 2nd in the conference (tops among returners) and tied for third in the nation, behind only Marcus Mariota and JT Barrett. It is strange to say this about a USC QB, but I think he was the most underrated player in the nation and weirdly and unfairly overshadowed in LA by Brett Hundley. Kessler should be one of the top Heisman candidates in the nation in 2015 and I would say is the marquee player in the Pac-12.
On defense, USC returns seven of the top eleven tacklers and eleven of the top fifteen tacklers. Cravens and Jackson are superstars (Jackson was honorable mention but was a freshman and is a big, big talent). There is lots of good quantity here, but only three returners with 5+ tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the Holiday Bowl against Nebraska, USC returns: LT Toa Lobendahn, LG Damien Mama, C Max Tuerk, RG Viane Talamaivao, and RT Zach Banner [Amazing fact: in addition to this line including three all-conference guys, two of them, Lobendahn and Talamaivao, were true freshman last year and Mama was too.]
Overall Impression: It's all about Cody Kessler and him being surrounded by loads of highly-touted talent. The impact talent doesn't jump out at you like UCLA or Arizona State, but I don't think the hype is over-heated, or at least not significantly so, because QB is the most important position on the field and USC has one of the best in the country. Will be interesting to see if this all comes together for the Trojans, but they're a legit contender. They have Kessler, which is huge, and he's surrounded by all kinds of talent on both sides of the ball.
Utah
Utah had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 43.67, 9th in the conference. Perhaps to the surprise of some, they are at an Arizona-level talent-wise, on paper.
Utah doesn't have a spring roster out, but if you assume everybody is back except for the NFL departure they have six guys who were at least honorable mention all-conference: RB Devontae Booker, K Andy Phillips, P Tom Hackett, DL Hunter Dimick, DL Lowell Lotulelei, and LB Jared Norris. One of the top running backs in the conference, studly special teams, and a good core for the front seven. Solid group.
True senior Travis Wilson returns for his fourth year as the primary starting QB. Last year he completed 60.7% of his passes for 166.9 yards per game and 18 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. His 134.7 passer rating was 10th in the conference and 49th in the nation.
On defense, Utah returns eight of the top eleven tacklers and ten of the top fifteen. They return four guys with 5+ tackles for loss. Dimick, Norris, Lotulei, and Brandon Fanaika's brother Jason look like a #partyinthebackfield level disruptive front. It will be interesting to see if they can sustain this with stud Nate Orchard gone, but I'm thinking that this looks like a studly defense for 2015.
Among the starting OL in the Las Vegas Bowl against Colorado State, Utah returns: LG Isaac Asiata, C Siaosi Aiono, RG Salesi Uhatafe, and RT JJ Dielman.
Overall Impression: Serious darkhorse. Studly defense, studly special teams, and the offense has one of the top backs in the conference running behind an offensive line that returns mostly intact. The QB is the limiting factor for being a top contender in my opinion, but he'll be a four year starter and they could do worse. Watch for them. That is, in games not involving Stanford: as with Arizona State we miss these scary guys!
Washington
Washington had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 25.11, 4th in the conference and a statistically insignificant shade ahead of Stanford. And that advantage over Stanford owes to the gift of Stanford's 2013 class. Washington has very competitive talent on paper, but it may or may not be preferable to Stanford's, which, it should also be noted, typically rates with Oregon as one of the top over-achievers in the conference.
Washington's spring roster has three guys who were honorable mention all-conference: DB Budda Baker, RS John Ross, and K Cameron Van Winckle. Red alert in Seattle from an impact talent perspective. No high-end impact guys and two of the three returners who made honorable mention got the nod for their special teams play. I think Baker will be a good one but this is very thin. Given the above paragraph on recruiting, clearly Washington's roster is under-performing right now.
Cyler Miles returns at QB. As a redshirt sophomore, he completed 66.6% of his passes for 199.75 yards per game and 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. His 142.4 passer rating was 9th in the conference and 32nd in the nation.
On defense, Washington returns six of the top eleven tacklers and eight of the top fifteen. That's a mediocre amount returning and nobody returns with more than 2 tackles for loss.
Among the starting OL in the Cactus Bowl against Oklahoma State, Washington returns: LG Siosifa Tufunga.
Overall Impression: Unless Coach Pete has a rabbit in his hat, I foresee more under-achieving their recruiting rankings. Don't look good in terms of impact talent or returners on defense, may be good at QB but may continue to be mediocre, and look horrible in terms of OL continuity. I'm telling you, weird as it sounds, I think Cal has a much better shot in the North.
Washington State
Washington State had a weighted average over the last five recruiting classes of 61.67, dead last in the conference. Colorado and Washington State barely recruit like power conference teams. WSU lags behind Oregon State in talent and is way behind the rest of the North.
Washington State doesn't have a spring roster out but didn't have any early NFL departures so if you assume everybody is back they have two guys who were honorable mention all-conference: LB Jeremiah Allison and OL Joe Dahl. [Note that DB Daquawn Brown is also an honorable mention guy with eligibility remaining but has reportedly been dismissed from the
team.] Like their home-state rival, very thin and no first or second teamers. Outside of Oregon, the level of impact talent in the Pacific Northwest is bleak. This speaks to why I tend to think Stanford is an attractive darkhorse for 2015: there isn't a lot of competition for Oregon besides Stanford in the North.
At QB, it looks like it will be walk-on Luke Falk. As a redshirt freshman, he completed 64.2% of his passes for 309.8 yards per game and 13 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He didn't qualify for the leader boards but had a 140.35 passer rating.
On defense, Washington State returns six of the top eleven tacklers and ten of the top fifteen. They have a surprising (to me) five guys with 5+ tackles for loss, even with defensive star Brown dismissed.
Among the starting OL in the Apple Cup against Washington, Washington State returns: LT Joe Dahl, LG Gunnar Eklund, C Riley Sorensen, RG Eduardo Middleton, and RT Jacob Seydel.
Overall Impression: Look like cellar dwellers with a potentially good offensive line. Who knows what the Pirate can do with it?
Thoughts?
This post was edited on 2/23 7:07 PM by msqueri
