Ok, I know this should probably wait a few more months until we're certain the dust has settled on the transfer portal but I just can't wait any longer to look at one of the things I've been most curious about this off-season: what returns at offensive line in the Pac-12 for 2022. Last year we had a high number of returning starters but when you dug into it our group of third year players were babes in the woods compared to the hordes of fourth, fifth, and even sixth year linemen availing themselves of a year after the 2020 COVID-19 mulligan. As a result, in a comparative/competitive sense Stanford's 2021 offensive line was problematic. I've been so curious to dig into how much of a difference a year will or won't make.
The way I'll look into this is to rank all the linemen in the Pac-12 who had 400+ snaps last year at a major college football school (i.e., returning starter-level players) based on their PFF grades (divided up visually into tiers based on my eyeball of where to slice and dice):
1. Andrew Vorhees (USC) - 90.2
2. Marco Brewer (Oregon State) - 88.6
3. Brett Neilon (USC) - 86.2
4. TJ Bass (Oregon) - 86.0
5. Justin Dedich (USC) - 85.7
6. Braeden Daniels (Utah) - 84.4
7. Brandon Kipper (Oregon State) - 80.1
8. Joshua Gray (Oregon State) - 77.5
8. Drake Nugent (Stanford) - 77.5
10. Ryan Walk (Oregon) - 77.3
11. Ben Scott (Arizona State) - 73.5
12. Ben Coleman (Cal) - 71.9
13. Walter Rouse (Stanford) - 71.4
14. Matthew Cindric (Cal) - 71.0
15. Jonah Monheim (USC) - 70.7
16. Ladarius Henderson (Arizona State) - 70.5
17. Alex Forsyth (Oregon) - 69.6
[Grant Stephens (Washington State) - 69.1 - including for completeness but not ranked because he was playing at Northern Colorado (FCS)]
18. Victor Curne (Washington) - 68.9
19. Raiqwon O'Neal (UCLA) - 68.7 (at Rutgers)
20. Chris Martinez (Arizona State) - 68.6 (at San Diego State)
21. Sataoa Laumea (Utah) - 68.2
22. Henry Bainivalu (Washington) - 67.8
23. Branson Bragg (Stanford) - 67.6
24. Bobby Haskins (USC) - 65.7 (at Virginia)
24. Barrett Miller (Stanford) - 65.7
26. Steven Jones (Oregon) - 64.6
27. Keaton Bills (Utah) - 62.3
28. Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu (Oregon) - 61.9
28. Paiton Fears (Arizona) - 61.9
30. Jake Hornibrook (Stanford) - 60.9
31. Jarrett Kingston (Washington State) - 60.5
32. Josh Baker (Arizona) - 60.3
33. Courtland Ford (USC) - 59.7
34. Duke Clemens (UCLA) - 59.6
[Ulumoo Ale (Washington) - 58.3 - included here for completeness but not ranked due to position switch to DL]
35. Josh Donovan (Arizona) - 57.8
36. Casey Roddick (Colorado) - 57.3
37. Jon Gaines II (UCLA) - 54.1
38. Jordan Morgan (Arizona) - 53.1
39. Konner Gomness (Washington State) - 52.3
40. Ma'ake Fifita (Washington State) - 48.5
41. Jake Wiley (Colorado) - 41.0
42. Frank Fillip (Colorado) - 40.1
43. Myles Hinton (Stanford) - 36.9
Observations:
* Stanford doesn't have any of the returning elite linemen. What we do have is tremendous depth of proven experience across the starting line. USC and Stanford are the only programs with six returning starter-level snap linemen. [It's funny that USC's fans are wringing their hands over OL depth.....the difference between a contending program and a non-contender is that the contender is genuinely talking about second and third string when it talks about depth and can be concerned even when it has one of the best starting groups in the conference.]
* On paper USC pretty clearly has the best line in the conference. Their offense should be fearsome. Oregon State has some question marks but to have three of the top eight on paper makes them a pretty clear #2 up front. Eyeballing the above one would likely slot Stanford in as the fourth best OL in the conference after USC and the Oregon schools.
* Normally I would say that there's a plausible chance Stanford could leap frog one or more of those teams on the logic competitors might have weak links who undermine the play of the proven guys. Alas, Stanford is at as big of a risk of that as anybody, as Hinton looks in line to start and is one of the worst "proven" players in America at any position (691 of 693 OL in America!).
* If I'm right Stanford should be expected to have the #4 line in the conference (closer to #3 than #5 on paper I'd say), that's not dominant but it's good. I think it's really notable that among all returning starter Pac-12 linemen every single one of our non-Hinton starters is middle of the road or better. There shouldn't be an excuse for this line to struggle....unless it really becomes Hinton torpedoing things, which shouldn't be allowed to fester with Hornibrook waiting in the wings.
What would be great, of course, is if we can somehow have one of the two best lines in the conference. That would unlock a lot. We'd most likely need multiple if not all three of Nugent, Rouse, and Bragg to be all-conference for that.
The way I'll look into this is to rank all the linemen in the Pac-12 who had 400+ snaps last year at a major college football school (i.e., returning starter-level players) based on their PFF grades (divided up visually into tiers based on my eyeball of where to slice and dice):
1. Andrew Vorhees (USC) - 90.2
2. Marco Brewer (Oregon State) - 88.6
3. Brett Neilon (USC) - 86.2
4. TJ Bass (Oregon) - 86.0
5. Justin Dedich (USC) - 85.7
6. Braeden Daniels (Utah) - 84.4
7. Brandon Kipper (Oregon State) - 80.1
8. Joshua Gray (Oregon State) - 77.5
8. Drake Nugent (Stanford) - 77.5
10. Ryan Walk (Oregon) - 77.3
11. Ben Scott (Arizona State) - 73.5
12. Ben Coleman (Cal) - 71.9
13. Walter Rouse (Stanford) - 71.4
14. Matthew Cindric (Cal) - 71.0
15. Jonah Monheim (USC) - 70.7
16. Ladarius Henderson (Arizona State) - 70.5
17. Alex Forsyth (Oregon) - 69.6
[Grant Stephens (Washington State) - 69.1 - including for completeness but not ranked because he was playing at Northern Colorado (FCS)]
18. Victor Curne (Washington) - 68.9
19. Raiqwon O'Neal (UCLA) - 68.7 (at Rutgers)
20. Chris Martinez (Arizona State) - 68.6 (at San Diego State)
21. Sataoa Laumea (Utah) - 68.2
22. Henry Bainivalu (Washington) - 67.8
23. Branson Bragg (Stanford) - 67.6
24. Bobby Haskins (USC) - 65.7 (at Virginia)
24. Barrett Miller (Stanford) - 65.7
26. Steven Jones (Oregon) - 64.6
27. Keaton Bills (Utah) - 62.3
28. Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu (Oregon) - 61.9
28. Paiton Fears (Arizona) - 61.9
30. Jake Hornibrook (Stanford) - 60.9
31. Jarrett Kingston (Washington State) - 60.5
32. Josh Baker (Arizona) - 60.3
33. Courtland Ford (USC) - 59.7
34. Duke Clemens (UCLA) - 59.6
[Ulumoo Ale (Washington) - 58.3 - included here for completeness but not ranked due to position switch to DL]
35. Josh Donovan (Arizona) - 57.8
36. Casey Roddick (Colorado) - 57.3
37. Jon Gaines II (UCLA) - 54.1
38. Jordan Morgan (Arizona) - 53.1
39. Konner Gomness (Washington State) - 52.3
40. Ma'ake Fifita (Washington State) - 48.5
41. Jake Wiley (Colorado) - 41.0
42. Frank Fillip (Colorado) - 40.1
43. Myles Hinton (Stanford) - 36.9
Observations:
* Stanford doesn't have any of the returning elite linemen. What we do have is tremendous depth of proven experience across the starting line. USC and Stanford are the only programs with six returning starter-level snap linemen. [It's funny that USC's fans are wringing their hands over OL depth.....the difference between a contending program and a non-contender is that the contender is genuinely talking about second and third string when it talks about depth and can be concerned even when it has one of the best starting groups in the conference.]
* On paper USC pretty clearly has the best line in the conference. Their offense should be fearsome. Oregon State has some question marks but to have three of the top eight on paper makes them a pretty clear #2 up front. Eyeballing the above one would likely slot Stanford in as the fourth best OL in the conference after USC and the Oregon schools.
* Normally I would say that there's a plausible chance Stanford could leap frog one or more of those teams on the logic competitors might have weak links who undermine the play of the proven guys. Alas, Stanford is at as big of a risk of that as anybody, as Hinton looks in line to start and is one of the worst "proven" players in America at any position (691 of 693 OL in America!).
* If I'm right Stanford should be expected to have the #4 line in the conference (closer to #3 than #5 on paper I'd say), that's not dominant but it's good. I think it's really notable that among all returning starter Pac-12 linemen every single one of our non-Hinton starters is middle of the road or better. There shouldn't be an excuse for this line to struggle....unless it really becomes Hinton torpedoing things, which shouldn't be allowed to fester with Hornibrook waiting in the wings.
What would be great, of course, is if we can somehow have one of the two best lines in the conference. That would unlock a lot. We'd most likely need multiple if not all three of Nugent, Rouse, and Bragg to be all-conference for that.
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