PART 1
For those that haven't been following the situation as closely as I have, I'll break things down in layman's terms for everyone here. This is what the Big Ten's master plan looks like: a 24-team super conference that runs coast-to-coast with some of the finest academic and athletic institutions in the entire country. Why 24? because it's a schedule maker's dream. Four 6-team pods that play five opponents from within their pod, three opponents from the three remaining pods, and a permanent cross-pod rival (for instance, Michigan & Ohio State in the event that they were placed in different pods for competitive balance).
Right now the Big Ten is sitting pretty at 18 members, possessing the biggest power players from the West Coast (USC, Oregon) to the Midwest (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State). That means that there are 6 remaining spots left. The most desirable programs in the country outside of the Big Ten reside in the SEC. Give the equal footing of both conferences, however, I don't see any scenario where the Big Ten would be able to poach programs away from the SEC (no matter how geographically convenient it would be to pluck schools like Texas, Oklahoma, or Missouri). So we can go ahead and cross those schools off the list. Meaning any further expansion would have to come from conferences lower down on the totem pole. Given the massive drop-off from the Big Ten/SEC to the next-best conference, that leaves just about everyone else. If the Big Ten wanted to poach schools from the Big 12, it would have done so by now. And while I'm not suggesting that there's no realistic scenario in which any current Big 12 teams join the Big Ten (Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Kansas would certainly warrant consideration), those invites would be much farther down the road and likely take place at a time when the conference was evaluating a jump beyond 24 members. For the purposes of this exercise, let's keep our focus on what it would take to get to 24 first.
It's no secret that the apple of the Big Ten's eye and the biggest prize left on the table is Notre Dame. They're a revenue-generating cash cow with excellent academics and a rich history of athletic success. In other words, they're about as close as it gets to a slam dunk addition for the Big Ten. However, they have been independent throughout their entire 100+ year existence and it would take a seismic shift in the college landscape for that to ever change. Having said that... it just so happens that we're already well into that seismic shift and just one major shakeup away from this whole thing getting blown wide open: the collapse of the ACC. The most attractive media properties left on the table reside in the ACC: Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina. These are the four schools that TV network power brokers (who are driving all these moves right now) have deemed as the last of the "additive" programs outside of Notre Dame. When I say additive, I mean a program that would increase ever current conference members payout because of the added media value. For instance, Notre Dame & the four aforementioned ACC schools would be additive to both the SEC/Big Ten (who are making $60-70M annually per conference member). Oregon & Washington, on the other hand, were not deemed as additive by the TV network partners, which is why they're coming at a discounted rate (somewhere between $30-40M, since that's apparently their projected value). Stanford & Cal are somewhere below that, which means in the event that the Big Ten were willing to offer us membership into their conference, we'd have to come in at a fraction of that $30-40M (more on that later). It's all relative, however, because even though Stanford & Cal are not additive to the SEC/Big Ten, we most likely would be viewed as additive to the Big 12 & ACC (who's payout is between $20 - 30M) and absolutely viewed as additive to the Mountain West (who's payout is somewhere in the range of $4-5M).
The issue with the Big Ten and the ACC schools, however, is that the ACC signed an iron-clad Grant of Rights agreement (back in 2016 when their TV contract was up for renewal) and instead of signing a shorter-term deal like most conferences, they signed a 20-year deal with ESPN that included unassailable financial consequences for leaving the conference prior to the contract's expiration in 2036. To put things into proper context, if the ACC's deal pays out $30M annually and there are 12 years left on the current TV contract after this season, each school stands to make $360M from 2024 - 2036. If a school were to break away from the conference next year and join the Big Ten in time for 2024 season, they would owe the ACC $360M upfront (prior to their departure). While some schools are sitting on larger endowments than others, no school has that much money to casually throw around. Notre Dame also signed onto the ACC's Grant of Rights but because they only play 4 ACC games per year, their financial penalty for leaving early is estimated to be under $100M (a fine the Big Ten would gladly absorb to onboard them into the conference). However, Florida State has become increasingly vocal in expressing their frustration over the ACC's TV contract and is apparently looking into any and all options that would help them break free from the conference so that they could depart to greener pastures (where both the SEC & Big Ten would be waiting with open arms).
It is widely speculated that because of this development, the Big Ten has re-opened expansion talks (which have already culminated in the additions of Oregon & Washington). In a perfect world, the Big Ten would love to see Florida State & Clemson (the most desirable TV properties in the ACC) become their 19th & 20th members and fill out their remaining 4 spots with the best available schools on the market (Miami, North Carolina, etc.). The operative phrase being "in a perfect world". I say this because there are some challenging hurdles that stand in the way of the Big Ten and their master plan for expansion. The first of which being that they're bound to face some stiff competition from the SEC in the pursuit of these premiere ACC programs. The SEC already has a stranglehold on the Southeast (hence the name) but would love nothing more than to expand their footprint into the Carolinas (Clemson, UNC) and as far north as Virginia (UVA, VA Tech). Florida State & Miami would be complicated evaluations because they already possess the flagship program in the state of Florida (UF). But if the TV dollars made financial sense, there's no way the SEC would say no. Not to mention, it would solidify their control over the region and by extension the hotbed of recruiting that comes with it. If the Big Ten presented more compelling media contract with bigger TV dollars than the SEC, I could see Florida State, Miami, and Clemson giving it serious consideration despite being more geographically compatible with the SEC. But it's going to be a dogfight of a power grab whenever that moment presents itself and I'm not sure the Big Ten can count on a clean sweep of all the top ACC programs.
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For those that haven't been following the situation as closely as I have, I'll break things down in layman's terms for everyone here. This is what the Big Ten's master plan looks like: a 24-team super conference that runs coast-to-coast with some of the finest academic and athletic institutions in the entire country. Why 24? because it's a schedule maker's dream. Four 6-team pods that play five opponents from within their pod, three opponents from the three remaining pods, and a permanent cross-pod rival (for instance, Michigan & Ohio State in the event that they were placed in different pods for competitive balance).
Right now the Big Ten is sitting pretty at 18 members, possessing the biggest power players from the West Coast (USC, Oregon) to the Midwest (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State). That means that there are 6 remaining spots left. The most desirable programs in the country outside of the Big Ten reside in the SEC. Give the equal footing of both conferences, however, I don't see any scenario where the Big Ten would be able to poach programs away from the SEC (no matter how geographically convenient it would be to pluck schools like Texas, Oklahoma, or Missouri). So we can go ahead and cross those schools off the list. Meaning any further expansion would have to come from conferences lower down on the totem pole. Given the massive drop-off from the Big Ten/SEC to the next-best conference, that leaves just about everyone else. If the Big Ten wanted to poach schools from the Big 12, it would have done so by now. And while I'm not suggesting that there's no realistic scenario in which any current Big 12 teams join the Big Ten (Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Kansas would certainly warrant consideration), those invites would be much farther down the road and likely take place at a time when the conference was evaluating a jump beyond 24 members. For the purposes of this exercise, let's keep our focus on what it would take to get to 24 first.
It's no secret that the apple of the Big Ten's eye and the biggest prize left on the table is Notre Dame. They're a revenue-generating cash cow with excellent academics and a rich history of athletic success. In other words, they're about as close as it gets to a slam dunk addition for the Big Ten. However, they have been independent throughout their entire 100+ year existence and it would take a seismic shift in the college landscape for that to ever change. Having said that... it just so happens that we're already well into that seismic shift and just one major shakeup away from this whole thing getting blown wide open: the collapse of the ACC. The most attractive media properties left on the table reside in the ACC: Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina. These are the four schools that TV network power brokers (who are driving all these moves right now) have deemed as the last of the "additive" programs outside of Notre Dame. When I say additive, I mean a program that would increase ever current conference members payout because of the added media value. For instance, Notre Dame & the four aforementioned ACC schools would be additive to both the SEC/Big Ten (who are making $60-70M annually per conference member). Oregon & Washington, on the other hand, were not deemed as additive by the TV network partners, which is why they're coming at a discounted rate (somewhere between $30-40M, since that's apparently their projected value). Stanford & Cal are somewhere below that, which means in the event that the Big Ten were willing to offer us membership into their conference, we'd have to come in at a fraction of that $30-40M (more on that later). It's all relative, however, because even though Stanford & Cal are not additive to the SEC/Big Ten, we most likely would be viewed as additive to the Big 12 & ACC (who's payout is between $20 - 30M) and absolutely viewed as additive to the Mountain West (who's payout is somewhere in the range of $4-5M).
The issue with the Big Ten and the ACC schools, however, is that the ACC signed an iron-clad Grant of Rights agreement (back in 2016 when their TV contract was up for renewal) and instead of signing a shorter-term deal like most conferences, they signed a 20-year deal with ESPN that included unassailable financial consequences for leaving the conference prior to the contract's expiration in 2036. To put things into proper context, if the ACC's deal pays out $30M annually and there are 12 years left on the current TV contract after this season, each school stands to make $360M from 2024 - 2036. If a school were to break away from the conference next year and join the Big Ten in time for 2024 season, they would owe the ACC $360M upfront (prior to their departure). While some schools are sitting on larger endowments than others, no school has that much money to casually throw around. Notre Dame also signed onto the ACC's Grant of Rights but because they only play 4 ACC games per year, their financial penalty for leaving early is estimated to be under $100M (a fine the Big Ten would gladly absorb to onboard them into the conference). However, Florida State has become increasingly vocal in expressing their frustration over the ACC's TV contract and is apparently looking into any and all options that would help them break free from the conference so that they could depart to greener pastures (where both the SEC & Big Ten would be waiting with open arms).
It is widely speculated that because of this development, the Big Ten has re-opened expansion talks (which have already culminated in the additions of Oregon & Washington). In a perfect world, the Big Ten would love to see Florida State & Clemson (the most desirable TV properties in the ACC) become their 19th & 20th members and fill out their remaining 4 spots with the best available schools on the market (Miami, North Carolina, etc.). The operative phrase being "in a perfect world". I say this because there are some challenging hurdles that stand in the way of the Big Ten and their master plan for expansion. The first of which being that they're bound to face some stiff competition from the SEC in the pursuit of these premiere ACC programs. The SEC already has a stranglehold on the Southeast (hence the name) but would love nothing more than to expand their footprint into the Carolinas (Clemson, UNC) and as far north as Virginia (UVA, VA Tech). Florida State & Miami would be complicated evaluations because they already possess the flagship program in the state of Florida (UF). But if the TV dollars made financial sense, there's no way the SEC would say no. Not to mention, it would solidify their control over the region and by extension the hotbed of recruiting that comes with it. If the Big Ten presented more compelling media contract with bigger TV dollars than the SEC, I could see Florida State, Miami, and Clemson giving it serious consideration despite being more geographically compatible with the SEC. But it's going to be a dogfight of a power grab whenever that moment presents itself and I'm not sure the Big Ten can count on a clean sweep of all the top ACC programs.
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