1. Well that was fun! There are few things in Stanford football as sweet as a quiet Coliseum. It became easy for me to forget after the miserable games in 2017/2019 and it sure is nice to feel this again. I'm blown away that in the Harbaugh/Shaw eras we are 10-6 vs. the Trojans. Every other coach in history combined for 24-56-3. The frustrating games that abound under Shaw can obscure what a remarkable run it's been. The reason we get frustrated is because we know the ceiling is so high. It would be thrilling if this season can return to that kind of ceiling. To bounce back from a devastating opening game road loss against a middle-of-the-pack Power Five team with a win in the Coliseum that puts us atop the conference evokes shades of 2015. As with that year, there's no way to know what lies ahead until the team shows what it's got over time. My natural reaction is to think we're neither as bad as we looked against Kansas State nor as good as we looked against USC. Still, through two games there are legitimate reasons to think this team might be good.
2. Shaw dialed this one up masterfully. The players were motivated and prepared. The game plans on both sides of the ball were beyond reproach. Shaw understood the psychology of both teams and the flow of the game. He continued - as he has all calendar year - to deviate from tendencies. An attractive, confident energy shone through the post-game press conference. While this team has warts, you have to like the mentality from head coach on down and what that could mean going forward. Last night it meant the most balanced we've been on both sides of the ball since Oregon in 2017. 7.08 yards per play on offense is the most we've had in seven games. 5.44 yards per play allowed on defense is the fewest we've had in 11 games. Balanced, dominant performance.
3. This game crystallized the story of the season through two games: we've found DUDES in Tanner McKee and Kyu Blu Kelly. There’s no reason to think either is the least bit of a fluke. McKee was a top 50 recruit and one of the most dominant high-level SoCal high school QBs ever. Kelly, besides being the son of a very good NFL corner and exuding a confidence I'm not sure Stanford has ever seen before, demonstrated SEC mutant-level athleticism in track that puts him on a Lofton/Sherman kind of short list for Stanford. On the field they've been spectacular. McKee had the #1 Total QBR of 98 QBs nationally this week, the best all-time for a Stanford freshman QB, supplanting Luck's performance in the "What's Your Deal?" game. On the season McKee is #5 in America and #1 among Power Five QBs. And speaking of the 2009 game and Sherman, Kelly's pick six echoed the eerie similarities.
4. The secondary most important story I see so far this season is, well, the secondary. We held Slovis to a 111.98 passer rating, a very rough night at the office. For comparison, as a freshman he had a 167.65 rating on the season and as a sophomore it was 144.13. Through two games the corners have played much better than I think we could have had a right to expect. Zahran Manley has been more than serviceable and shouldn’t lose his job whenever Salim Turner-Muhammad returns. Even in the much-maligned safety group Kendall Williamson and Noah Williams had extremely gutty bounce back games. They each had 1-2 characteristic crappy plays but mostly played capably. Williamson in particular made several important plays. But what I really want to focus on in the secondary is Jimmy Wyrick. I can't overstate how giddy I was to see a true freshman defender emerge as not only a starter but one of our best players. Wyrick made multiple plays both in run support and pass defense covering the slot. It means a lot for this defense this year that Kelly and Wyrick have each had a game playing very well at nickel/slot, as it means that we have the versatility to play Kelly wherever he is most needed. When the other team's dude is out wide like London was for USC, Kelly can play there. When the slot is the bigger challenge Kelly can play there. Moreover, Wyrick's number of snaps and effectiveness in them invites Quenton Meeks comparisons. That is not something I was at all expecting. Such a welcome, unexpected arrow up for our secondary for the next three to four years.
5. It's not all roses. I have significant concerns with run blocking and the front seven. On offense, there are now two data points that the combination of lacking bullies at OL and the transition between OL coaches could impede the kind of run game we think is key. The good thing is that both factors should improve with time. Nonetheless, there are open questions how much better, how quickly, and what kind of ceiling that enables for Stanford. On defense, the front seven has not been good and is getting bailed out by shockingly competent pass defense. The run defense is still soft. In this game it was 5.6 yards per carry, almost a yard worse than San Jose State allowed. Booker, Miezan, Herron, and Fox have been particular disappointments. Booker played better than he did against Kansas State but not nearly well enough. He needs to start getting in backfields. The bright spots have been Jacob Mangum-Farrar and Dalyn Wade-Perry. After JMF couldn't be healthy even at all for three years and a game, it was awesome to see him make two big plays at the line of scrimmage. We have missed any sort of #PartyInTheBackfield from ILBs for a long time and if he can offer that it would be big. Miezan, Damuni, and Sinclair just aren't showing it. DWP, as usual, is not giving consistent production. But he is giving production. Not only was the tackle for loss a super impressive and insanely strong one arm tackle, it set up the stressful situation that led to the pick six on the next play. It's early, but DWP is currently 35th in the nation in tackles for loss per game. Solomon Thomas and Harrison Phillips are the only DL to even be top 100 for us in the last six years.
6. The yards per carry looked good on paper (4.7 yards per carry, 1.1 yards per carry more than SJSU against USC) but unlike most games ever were not adversely affected by sacks and benefited tremendously from the Nate Peat home run. Without that run the rushing game stats look bleak. However, big plays count and have been the run game's overriding emphasis all off-season so I don't think it would be fair to discount that play. This game is probably more representative of our run game than the opener was. One thing that is concerning me is that Austin Jones has just not been effective, outside of the great imitation of Christian McCaffrey on the catch and run. I think those two things may be related. Jones lost significant weight, which seemed an obvious attempt to address his glaring speed deficiency and open up big plays. I wonder if he has gained more big play potential while trading off some (or a lot) of his bread and butter. With the caveats that two games is an extremely small sample and hindsight is always 20/20, let's keep our eyes on this. It's possible a more optimal division of labor would have been Jones reprising his style and Peat being the home run guy. In any case, the division of labor between those two is tricky. Peat was extremely effective but still only managed 8 snaps. It would have been a shockingly low number if he hadn't been given the fourth quarter run out the clock snaps (shocking we'd replace Jones in what seems his wheelhouse so perhaps an indication Jones' stranglehold on RB1 may be less absolute than assumed).
7. The great thing is that even with the run game not yet being what we hoped the passing game dominated even with Mike Wilson still injured and the tight ends (including the hyped/overrated Yurosek) being non-factors. I think this is mostly McKee but the wide receivers deserve a shout out. Tremayne, Higgins, and Humphreys had really nice games (and it's nice to see the production spread around so democratically/organically). This is a real testament to Kennedy's coaching, especially considering the departures of Fehoko, Wedington, and St. Brown and Wilson being out. I'm especially encouraged by the McKee-Humphreys chemistry as that's a new thing we didn't know we could expect. I also am loving the look Smith gives us as a receiver, which corroborates my long-held view our hope for him should be Wedington 2.0. In my view Smith has to be moved to be a full-time WR and starter next year if we're without any two of Wilson, Tremayne, and Higgins.
8. Special teams can get better. At returner, Peat is a really good weapon and I don't yet know what we have with Filkins. Sanborn remains very good but not yet great (too many touch backs). Karty is still an unknown and it was a minor misfortune for him that his first career field goal got taken off the board by Shaw's brass balls and that the next attempt hit the upright. I don't think I blame Damuni too much but if that were a close game having a blocked punt taken off the board would really sting.
9. I really don't want to jinx it but WOW with the Shawvita red zone offense. We are #1 in the country in touchdown conversions and were #6 last year. We've become insanely good at this.
10. Game balls: McKee, Kelly, Peat, Shaw
11. First place! This game doesn't yet materially affect my expectation of a dogfight to get bowl eligible but it certainly does give very legitimate reason for optimism the season could be much better than that. Most of all, it puts us squarely in the mix in the conference. Getting first out of the gate with a conference win against a favorite to win the conference is enormous. This puts a lot of pressure on everybody else. Next week will be a super fun opportunity to beat up on a hapless team and learn a little bit more about our team, but the showdown against UCLA and the first home game in eight games (!) looms large in numerous ways. Can't wait, but first I need to decide whether to buy a ticket to Nashville!
2. Shaw dialed this one up masterfully. The players were motivated and prepared. The game plans on both sides of the ball were beyond reproach. Shaw understood the psychology of both teams and the flow of the game. He continued - as he has all calendar year - to deviate from tendencies. An attractive, confident energy shone through the post-game press conference. While this team has warts, you have to like the mentality from head coach on down and what that could mean going forward. Last night it meant the most balanced we've been on both sides of the ball since Oregon in 2017. 7.08 yards per play on offense is the most we've had in seven games. 5.44 yards per play allowed on defense is the fewest we've had in 11 games. Balanced, dominant performance.
3. This game crystallized the story of the season through two games: we've found DUDES in Tanner McKee and Kyu Blu Kelly. There’s no reason to think either is the least bit of a fluke. McKee was a top 50 recruit and one of the most dominant high-level SoCal high school QBs ever. Kelly, besides being the son of a very good NFL corner and exuding a confidence I'm not sure Stanford has ever seen before, demonstrated SEC mutant-level athleticism in track that puts him on a Lofton/Sherman kind of short list for Stanford. On the field they've been spectacular. McKee had the #1 Total QBR of 98 QBs nationally this week, the best all-time for a Stanford freshman QB, supplanting Luck's performance in the "What's Your Deal?" game. On the season McKee is #5 in America and #1 among Power Five QBs. And speaking of the 2009 game and Sherman, Kelly's pick six echoed the eerie similarities.
4. The secondary most important story I see so far this season is, well, the secondary. We held Slovis to a 111.98 passer rating, a very rough night at the office. For comparison, as a freshman he had a 167.65 rating on the season and as a sophomore it was 144.13. Through two games the corners have played much better than I think we could have had a right to expect. Zahran Manley has been more than serviceable and shouldn’t lose his job whenever Salim Turner-Muhammad returns. Even in the much-maligned safety group Kendall Williamson and Noah Williams had extremely gutty bounce back games. They each had 1-2 characteristic crappy plays but mostly played capably. Williamson in particular made several important plays. But what I really want to focus on in the secondary is Jimmy Wyrick. I can't overstate how giddy I was to see a true freshman defender emerge as not only a starter but one of our best players. Wyrick made multiple plays both in run support and pass defense covering the slot. It means a lot for this defense this year that Kelly and Wyrick have each had a game playing very well at nickel/slot, as it means that we have the versatility to play Kelly wherever he is most needed. When the other team's dude is out wide like London was for USC, Kelly can play there. When the slot is the bigger challenge Kelly can play there. Moreover, Wyrick's number of snaps and effectiveness in them invites Quenton Meeks comparisons. That is not something I was at all expecting. Such a welcome, unexpected arrow up for our secondary for the next three to four years.
5. It's not all roses. I have significant concerns with run blocking and the front seven. On offense, there are now two data points that the combination of lacking bullies at OL and the transition between OL coaches could impede the kind of run game we think is key. The good thing is that both factors should improve with time. Nonetheless, there are open questions how much better, how quickly, and what kind of ceiling that enables for Stanford. On defense, the front seven has not been good and is getting bailed out by shockingly competent pass defense. The run defense is still soft. In this game it was 5.6 yards per carry, almost a yard worse than San Jose State allowed. Booker, Miezan, Herron, and Fox have been particular disappointments. Booker played better than he did against Kansas State but not nearly well enough. He needs to start getting in backfields. The bright spots have been Jacob Mangum-Farrar and Dalyn Wade-Perry. After JMF couldn't be healthy even at all for three years and a game, it was awesome to see him make two big plays at the line of scrimmage. We have missed any sort of #PartyInTheBackfield from ILBs for a long time and if he can offer that it would be big. Miezan, Damuni, and Sinclair just aren't showing it. DWP, as usual, is not giving consistent production. But he is giving production. Not only was the tackle for loss a super impressive and insanely strong one arm tackle, it set up the stressful situation that led to the pick six on the next play. It's early, but DWP is currently 35th in the nation in tackles for loss per game. Solomon Thomas and Harrison Phillips are the only DL to even be top 100 for us in the last six years.
6. The yards per carry looked good on paper (4.7 yards per carry, 1.1 yards per carry more than SJSU against USC) but unlike most games ever were not adversely affected by sacks and benefited tremendously from the Nate Peat home run. Without that run the rushing game stats look bleak. However, big plays count and have been the run game's overriding emphasis all off-season so I don't think it would be fair to discount that play. This game is probably more representative of our run game than the opener was. One thing that is concerning me is that Austin Jones has just not been effective, outside of the great imitation of Christian McCaffrey on the catch and run. I think those two things may be related. Jones lost significant weight, which seemed an obvious attempt to address his glaring speed deficiency and open up big plays. I wonder if he has gained more big play potential while trading off some (or a lot) of his bread and butter. With the caveats that two games is an extremely small sample and hindsight is always 20/20, let's keep our eyes on this. It's possible a more optimal division of labor would have been Jones reprising his style and Peat being the home run guy. In any case, the division of labor between those two is tricky. Peat was extremely effective but still only managed 8 snaps. It would have been a shockingly low number if he hadn't been given the fourth quarter run out the clock snaps (shocking we'd replace Jones in what seems his wheelhouse so perhaps an indication Jones' stranglehold on RB1 may be less absolute than assumed).
7. The great thing is that even with the run game not yet being what we hoped the passing game dominated even with Mike Wilson still injured and the tight ends (including the hyped/overrated Yurosek) being non-factors. I think this is mostly McKee but the wide receivers deserve a shout out. Tremayne, Higgins, and Humphreys had really nice games (and it's nice to see the production spread around so democratically/organically). This is a real testament to Kennedy's coaching, especially considering the departures of Fehoko, Wedington, and St. Brown and Wilson being out. I'm especially encouraged by the McKee-Humphreys chemistry as that's a new thing we didn't know we could expect. I also am loving the look Smith gives us as a receiver, which corroborates my long-held view our hope for him should be Wedington 2.0. In my view Smith has to be moved to be a full-time WR and starter next year if we're without any two of Wilson, Tremayne, and Higgins.
8. Special teams can get better. At returner, Peat is a really good weapon and I don't yet know what we have with Filkins. Sanborn remains very good but not yet great (too many touch backs). Karty is still an unknown and it was a minor misfortune for him that his first career field goal got taken off the board by Shaw's brass balls and that the next attempt hit the upright. I don't think I blame Damuni too much but if that were a close game having a blocked punt taken off the board would really sting.
9. I really don't want to jinx it but WOW with the Shawvita red zone offense. We are #1 in the country in touchdown conversions and were #6 last year. We've become insanely good at this.
10. Game balls: McKee, Kelly, Peat, Shaw
11. First place! This game doesn't yet materially affect my expectation of a dogfight to get bowl eligible but it certainly does give very legitimate reason for optimism the season could be much better than that. Most of all, it puts us squarely in the mix in the conference. Getting first out of the gate with a conference win against a favorite to win the conference is enormous. This puts a lot of pressure on everybody else. Next week will be a super fun opportunity to beat up on a hapless team and learn a little bit more about our team, but the showdown against UCLA and the first home game in eight games (!) looms large in numerous ways. Can't wait, but first I need to decide whether to buy a ticket to Nashville!
