1. What a roller coaster! It's very nice that we tend to be on the euphoric side of these crazy games (last night, last season's games against UCLA/Cal/Oregon State, the insane overtime miracle at Oregon in 2018). That speaks volumes about the team's resilience and coaching. It's not an accident that we have broken so many hearts in recent years, that we're the team that wins after getting down to a fraction of a percent chance, that we drag opponents to deep waters rather than be the ones who drown. We also prepare and perform quite well as the underdog - a 4-3 record as underdogs during the pandemic. All of that is great and deserves credit. The flip side is that we put ourselves in these positions so often. We're the scrappy underdog that can't put together complete games. The margin for error has been low in recent years and it's sobering to think about how low the program would be had we not miraculously pulled off all these crazy finishes. In the moment, though, it's hard to feel anything other than euphoria at an upset of the #3 team in the country in extremely dramatic fashion.
2. Both teams experienced tremendous adversity. Both teams were playing without a key offensive lineman. Both teams experienced the gut punch of a wrenching injury to one of their key weapons. Oregon played without their offensive coordinator. Stanford experienced a spate of questionable calls through much of the game. Oregon, after not trailing by more than three all season, immediately went down by ten and had to play from a position they're completely unaccustomed. Stanford, after coming out strong, completely lost momentum and had a negligible chance to win on 2nd and 19 from their own 4 yard line and less than two minutes on the clock. I don't think it's an accident Stanford was the team that showed resilience to weather that adversity. Shaw prepares his team mentally and keeps them in games and Cristobal can recruit with the best of them but is an ineffective meathead otherwise. I don't think the Pac-12 gets a team to the playoffs until a coach can put together both elements.
3. This was a team win in the sense that both sides made plays to win the game. The clutch two minute drill in the fourth and touchdown series in overtime were excellent moments on offense with which we wouldn't have won, but the defense did more to win. On offense, we had 4.99 yards per play, which is 0.4 yards per play worse than Oregon's average allowed. The Ducks have been giving up a lot of yards and a lot of first downs this year and we nonetheless failed to move the ball consistently. For the second straight week we went numerous consecutive drives without even a first down, a particular red flag given how much Oregon's defense has bent all year. The defense, on the other hand, gave up 5.18 yards per play, which is 0.84 yards per play fewer than Oregon's average. After going a long stretch last week without giving up many points, the defense had two separate stretches in this game in which Oregon went three drives without scoring.
4. The defense's relative success had something to do with us and something to do with them. We were solid statistically. We gave up 4.2 yards per carry, 0.74 yards better than they average. Oregon committed to the run with the most carries they've had in the last three seasons but they could not get our defense to break. In pass defense, 106.25 is Oregon's worst passer rating of the season and only Ohio State has held the Ducks to worse than the 7.2 yards per attempt we allowed. Our passing defense remains good and could be our first top 30 passing defense since 2016. Overall, a lot of credit goes to Lance Anderson's game plan. Aside from preventing Oregon from beating us on the ground (can't say we bottled them up as they did impose their will on the two drives they truly rammed it down our throat), we managed six tackles for loss (Oregon came in averaging 4.25 per game), and Reid had two big passes defended (including the interception, which was critical for field position, especially given the offense's inconsistent ability to muster drives this season) on clever plays in which he dropped into coverage despite the book on his own strengths (pass rush) and Oregon's tendencies (both of those plays came on down and distance on which Oregon typically runs). Nonetheless, Oregon handed us some gifts. In particular, I think Moorhead, Forsyth, and (eventually) Verdell being out messed with their play calling. They passed on multiple third and short scenarios and other run downs, and then shockingly came out in an empty set for the decisive overtime drive. It wasn't Duck football and it certainly wasn't smart given Stanford strengths/weaknesses to put the game in Brown's hands rather than Dye's.
5. But we took advantage. I was over the moon to see Stanford linebackers making plays. Fox, Reid, Damuni, and Miezan all filled up the stat sheet. The pivotal sequences contributing to the two score halftime lead were, first, Miezan's tackle for loss and half sack forcing a punt, and then Reid and Fox combining for the fourth down stop at the one yard line. Damuni had the sack to knock Oregon out of the red zone, which helped contribute to Oregon settling for three on a drive that proved to be an epic squander for them. Fox swarmed and forced the fumble on the penultimate play of the game. The linebackers won this game.
6. Arguably the most encouraging thing about yesterday is that all this happened with by far McKee's worst start yet. We had fewer yards per attempt than even the West/McKee two-headed monster against Kansas State and only a slightly better passer rating than that. McKee had a couple really bad throws in high leverage situations and failed to step up in the pocket when he should have several times. And you know what? It added up to an above-average performance in which he drove 96 yards with less than two minutes to tie the game and then came out firing in overtime, delivering in high pressure situations to knock off the #3 team. Nationally this week McKee was #47 of 122 QBs in Total QBR. This being an off week for him just adds to the mounting evidence that he's one of the best players in the country.
7. Tremayne deserves special mention. He was dominating when he got injured - three first downs by early in the second quarter. Even missing three quarters of the game yesterday he ends his season (presumably) 12th in the Pac-12 in receiving yards per game. And of course he was lethal in the red zone. He had emerged for us as not just a great walk-on story but one of the best receivers in the Pac-12 and a guy with an NFL shot. I hope he recovers fully. Selfishly, I'd love for him to have a storybook comeback for Stanford next season.
8. Very nice to see Jones and Yurosek back. They are important pieces for an offense that can't yet drive reliably. I think we're close to a Yurosek explosion and even with just three catches in this game they were very big for moving the chains on key drives. Humphreys had a rough game for 59 minutes and then became a hero - the first down on second and a mile, drawing the penalty to get the untimed down, 9 yard catch in overtime, and of course the game-winning touchdown. Higgins had an excellent game (four first downs) and of course was a hero with the eerily Bradford-esque touchdown. But the unsung hero was Peat. Peat moved the chains five times. Stanford's overall run game of 3.5 yards per carry was essentially right at Oregon's season average allowed, which is not good considering Oregon hasn't played good run defenses. The best that could be said about our offensive line is that they had a gritty performance and pass protected very well when they needed to, but the run blocking remains woefully lacking, especially without Bragg. And yet Peat grinded for 15 carries for 78 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and those five first downs. No game ball because he didn't change the scoreboard but I thought he had a very nice game.
9. The aforementioned OL is a limiting factor for how good this team can be. That's been the story all season. One possible reason for optimism: a good case can be made that UCLA and Oregon are the two best front sevens we face until Notre Dame. We've gone through a bit of a crucible and will have some chances going forward to see if the offensive line can get better while also maybe facing somewhat easier competition.
10. Special teams was up and down. Sanborn had some big field position impacting punts but unfortunately in both directions. I am starting to wonder whether we may have to reassess whether this phase of the game is an advantage for us this year. We are #97 in net punting. Karty mostly did his job but wasn't automatic on touchbacks. Filkins had a nice punt return and a very nice punt coverage tackle but also muffed a punt and nearly turned the ball back over, which would have much more than negated any good he did.
11. Game balls: Higgins, Reid, Karty, Anderson
12. Stanford football feels like a roller coaster right now. We're resilient and disciplined enough that we can beat anybody but we're not good enough that we can go into any game on our remaining schedule and not expect it to be a fight. We are still probably a few wins away from being relevant nationally and up next is a game we'll be expected to lose. But Stanford has deservedly cultivated a Road Dog persona and going to Arizona State doesn't feel scary. We've won more than we've lost as underdogs and have won much more than we've lost on the road. We have the right mentality for a road trip like this. Hopefully we can finally pull together a full game but honestly the game is winnable even if we don't. Like the UCLA game, this upcoming game feels like a fulcrum between fighting for relevance and fighting for bowl eligibility. Hopefully this one turns out better.
2. Both teams experienced tremendous adversity. Both teams were playing without a key offensive lineman. Both teams experienced the gut punch of a wrenching injury to one of their key weapons. Oregon played without their offensive coordinator. Stanford experienced a spate of questionable calls through much of the game. Oregon, after not trailing by more than three all season, immediately went down by ten and had to play from a position they're completely unaccustomed. Stanford, after coming out strong, completely lost momentum and had a negligible chance to win on 2nd and 19 from their own 4 yard line and less than two minutes on the clock. I don't think it's an accident Stanford was the team that showed resilience to weather that adversity. Shaw prepares his team mentally and keeps them in games and Cristobal can recruit with the best of them but is an ineffective meathead otherwise. I don't think the Pac-12 gets a team to the playoffs until a coach can put together both elements.
3. This was a team win in the sense that both sides made plays to win the game. The clutch two minute drill in the fourth and touchdown series in overtime were excellent moments on offense with which we wouldn't have won, but the defense did more to win. On offense, we had 4.99 yards per play, which is 0.4 yards per play worse than Oregon's average allowed. The Ducks have been giving up a lot of yards and a lot of first downs this year and we nonetheless failed to move the ball consistently. For the second straight week we went numerous consecutive drives without even a first down, a particular red flag given how much Oregon's defense has bent all year. The defense, on the other hand, gave up 5.18 yards per play, which is 0.84 yards per play fewer than Oregon's average. After going a long stretch last week without giving up many points, the defense had two separate stretches in this game in which Oregon went three drives without scoring.
4. The defense's relative success had something to do with us and something to do with them. We were solid statistically. We gave up 4.2 yards per carry, 0.74 yards better than they average. Oregon committed to the run with the most carries they've had in the last three seasons but they could not get our defense to break. In pass defense, 106.25 is Oregon's worst passer rating of the season and only Ohio State has held the Ducks to worse than the 7.2 yards per attempt we allowed. Our passing defense remains good and could be our first top 30 passing defense since 2016. Overall, a lot of credit goes to Lance Anderson's game plan. Aside from preventing Oregon from beating us on the ground (can't say we bottled them up as they did impose their will on the two drives they truly rammed it down our throat), we managed six tackles for loss (Oregon came in averaging 4.25 per game), and Reid had two big passes defended (including the interception, which was critical for field position, especially given the offense's inconsistent ability to muster drives this season) on clever plays in which he dropped into coverage despite the book on his own strengths (pass rush) and Oregon's tendencies (both of those plays came on down and distance on which Oregon typically runs). Nonetheless, Oregon handed us some gifts. In particular, I think Moorhead, Forsyth, and (eventually) Verdell being out messed with their play calling. They passed on multiple third and short scenarios and other run downs, and then shockingly came out in an empty set for the decisive overtime drive. It wasn't Duck football and it certainly wasn't smart given Stanford strengths/weaknesses to put the game in Brown's hands rather than Dye's.
5. But we took advantage. I was over the moon to see Stanford linebackers making plays. Fox, Reid, Damuni, and Miezan all filled up the stat sheet. The pivotal sequences contributing to the two score halftime lead were, first, Miezan's tackle for loss and half sack forcing a punt, and then Reid and Fox combining for the fourth down stop at the one yard line. Damuni had the sack to knock Oregon out of the red zone, which helped contribute to Oregon settling for three on a drive that proved to be an epic squander for them. Fox swarmed and forced the fumble on the penultimate play of the game. The linebackers won this game.
6. Arguably the most encouraging thing about yesterday is that all this happened with by far McKee's worst start yet. We had fewer yards per attempt than even the West/McKee two-headed monster against Kansas State and only a slightly better passer rating than that. McKee had a couple really bad throws in high leverage situations and failed to step up in the pocket when he should have several times. And you know what? It added up to an above-average performance in which he drove 96 yards with less than two minutes to tie the game and then came out firing in overtime, delivering in high pressure situations to knock off the #3 team. Nationally this week McKee was #47 of 122 QBs in Total QBR. This being an off week for him just adds to the mounting evidence that he's one of the best players in the country.
7. Tremayne deserves special mention. He was dominating when he got injured - three first downs by early in the second quarter. Even missing three quarters of the game yesterday he ends his season (presumably) 12th in the Pac-12 in receiving yards per game. And of course he was lethal in the red zone. He had emerged for us as not just a great walk-on story but one of the best receivers in the Pac-12 and a guy with an NFL shot. I hope he recovers fully. Selfishly, I'd love for him to have a storybook comeback for Stanford next season.
8. Very nice to see Jones and Yurosek back. They are important pieces for an offense that can't yet drive reliably. I think we're close to a Yurosek explosion and even with just three catches in this game they were very big for moving the chains on key drives. Humphreys had a rough game for 59 minutes and then became a hero - the first down on second and a mile, drawing the penalty to get the untimed down, 9 yard catch in overtime, and of course the game-winning touchdown. Higgins had an excellent game (four first downs) and of course was a hero with the eerily Bradford-esque touchdown. But the unsung hero was Peat. Peat moved the chains five times. Stanford's overall run game of 3.5 yards per carry was essentially right at Oregon's season average allowed, which is not good considering Oregon hasn't played good run defenses. The best that could be said about our offensive line is that they had a gritty performance and pass protected very well when they needed to, but the run blocking remains woefully lacking, especially without Bragg. And yet Peat grinded for 15 carries for 78 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and those five first downs. No game ball because he didn't change the scoreboard but I thought he had a very nice game.
9. The aforementioned OL is a limiting factor for how good this team can be. That's been the story all season. One possible reason for optimism: a good case can be made that UCLA and Oregon are the two best front sevens we face until Notre Dame. We've gone through a bit of a crucible and will have some chances going forward to see if the offensive line can get better while also maybe facing somewhat easier competition.
10. Special teams was up and down. Sanborn had some big field position impacting punts but unfortunately in both directions. I am starting to wonder whether we may have to reassess whether this phase of the game is an advantage for us this year. We are #97 in net punting. Karty mostly did his job but wasn't automatic on touchbacks. Filkins had a nice punt return and a very nice punt coverage tackle but also muffed a punt and nearly turned the ball back over, which would have much more than negated any good he did.
11. Game balls: Higgins, Reid, Karty, Anderson
12. Stanford football feels like a roller coaster right now. We're resilient and disciplined enough that we can beat anybody but we're not good enough that we can go into any game on our remaining schedule and not expect it to be a fight. We are still probably a few wins away from being relevant nationally and up next is a game we'll be expected to lose. But Stanford has deservedly cultivated a Road Dog persona and going to Arizona State doesn't feel scary. We've won more than we've lost as underdogs and have won much more than we've lost on the road. We have the right mentality for a road trip like this. Hopefully we can finally pull together a full game but honestly the game is winnable even if we don't. Like the UCLA game, this upcoming game feels like a fulcrum between fighting for relevance and fighting for bowl eligibility. Hopefully this one turns out better.
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