1. A win! Against a real team! It feels nice to finally get back in the win column and I'm very happy for the players and coaches, for whom this quite evidently came as a tremendous relief after all of the futility of the last few years. For me, the win was more bittersweet than I would like. I never ever want to be in the position of rooting against Stanford but would be lying if this win, either in real-time or now thinking about it this morning, struck me as good for the long-term health of the program. My hope is it's neutral, a nice, overdue moment of joy for people who have toiled and earned this but ultimately not something that changes anything fundamental for the program. There's a chance it's a negative if it reinforces the more complacent instincts of those who matter, but that's speculative and premature to comment on and not what we should focus on. The focus should be on enjoying the win and trying to build on it. Those of us fed up with Shaw and his staff are fed up because we care about results. Now that we've finally gotten a good result we can't begrudge those focused on building on it and continuing to get results.
2. This was the second week in a row in which we had our best game statistically in a calendar year. That's not momentum yet but it's moving in the right direction. Last night was only a 0.18 yard per play deficit for us, which is the most competitive FBS game we've had by that measure since last year's Oregon game (in which we had a slightly worse deficit) and UCLA game (somewhat better but a loss). Of course, that you have to go back to September 2021 for a game in which we were more efficient than an opponent is a good illustration of how bad the program is. Fundamentally, last night tells the same story as the Oregon State loss: we played a very good game by our standards and it still wasn't good. That's where we are, win or lose, and it's imperative celebrating the win not lose sight of this.
3. This game was won for two reasons, one that is a credit to us and one that is reflective of tremendous luck. To our credit, the defense was a revelation. Ohio State this year and Cincinnati last year are the only defenses that gave up fewer points to the Irish. Giving up 4.93 yards per play is 0.67 better than the average (and amazingly better than Ohio State did) and 1.36 better than our average. Holding a team to under five yards a play is the first time that's happened since last year's Vanderbilt game, but that's Vandy and Notre Dame is a real offense that came into the game with the #31 Offensive FEI in the nation. In my view this is Stanford's best defensive performance since at least the season opener against Northwestern in 2019, but that offense stunk so a good case can be made it's the best Stanford defensive performance since at least the 2018 Pitt game. The best defensive game in nearly four years is a big accomplishment and big deal.
4. But the other thing that won this game was sheer luck. That will go down as one of the luckiest/unluckiest (depending who you're rooting for) fumble games ever. There were five fumbles in that game and Stanford recovered four of them. We also recovered a blocked punt, an extremely lucky development to avoid a scoop and score (and Notre Dame ended up not scoring at all off that turnover). Finally, there was a pivotal play in the game in which the ruling on the field was that McKee fumbled yet inexplicably the call was overturned on replay, squelching Notre Dame's comeback. Say what you will about how close the knee down/fumble were (I thought essentially simultaneous), to overturn a call of fumble on the field based on that video cannot be explained and robbed Notre Dame. This game will go down as the Fumble Game. Nonetheless, I find it very karmically appropriate it happened this way. Just days after Shaw gave a magnanimous and wise answer about being screwed out of the Stepfan Taylor touchdown in 2012, the break goes our way. We're even, Domers. It is also good karma for our bad turnover luck earlier this season. Sometimes the bounces go your way and sometimes they don't and that's just football. A win is a win.
5. We were in a position to capitalize on the breaks we got because the defense gave such a great performance. After we recovered the punt block, the defense buckled down and made Notre Dame run eight plays to go just 27 yards, including a clutch fourth down stuff at the 5 yard line. After the fumble we recovered in the second quarter, we punted without incident and then the defense forced a three and out. Especially when you account for how the offense did when it got the ball off a turnover or lucky bounce, we did better than Notre Dame in those situations and that made the difference. But the defense was really the star. Giving up 4.41 yards per carry was our best run defense in seven games. Part of that is Notre Dame having a mediocre run game, but for us to even be average in run defense is a triumph for us. I've seen many fans talk about how bad Pyne is but that doesn't ring true for me. That was by far the worst he's done since becoming QB1. On the season he's got the #42 passer rating in the country (McKee is #57) and #64 yards per attempt (McKee is #50). Last night we held Pyne to a passer rating ten points below what even qualifies for top 100 and a yards per attempt almost a yard below that threshold. In Tommy Rees' three years as offensive coordinator, that is one of Notre Dame's four worst passing games, and 2020 Alabama and 2021 Cincinnati forced two of those. Give our guys credit. They terrorized Notre Dame's passing game, relatively speaking. Between the game plan not to let Mayer beat us, whatever else Anderson dialed up, and the effort and execution that led to six pass breakups (compared to one against Oregon State and USC and three against Washington), that was a hell of a job shutting Notre Dame's passing game down.
6. Given such good defensive performance, many players deserve special mention. McGill was having a quiet night....until he wasn't. A fourth quarter tackle for loss, pass interference (shows up as a bad play but it could have gone either way, like the game winner, and the point is he was in the mix contesting), fumble recovery, and clinching pass breakup on 4th and 7 were hero plays when we needed them. Likewise, Herron didn't make his presence known except when he did, and they were gargantuan plays, a sack to force a fumble that we recovered and a sack on 2nd and 4 on Notre Dame's attempt at a winning drive. Don't look now but Herron is #52 in America in sacks. Casey Toohill is the only Cardinal to be top 100 in the last half decade. Mangum-Farrar had easily the night of his life with about four good run stops (one on 4th and 2 near the goal-line!) and a pivotal pass breakup on 3rd and 7 when the game was in the balance. Kelly came back from injury and had two pass breakups. Bonner bounced back from his and Fields' (who again helped a lot in run defense) screw-up last week and gave great coverage, a big yardage-losing tackle for loss, and a run stop. Franklin (a few run stops, a pass batted down, and the fumble recovery) and Moi (batted a pass to force a punt, a few run stops) both had career nights. Williamson's overall grade wasn't great because he got torched for the 41 yard touchdown (which lowered Williamson's season grade enough that Bonner is actually now our top-ranked defender by PFF), but he had a tackle for loss in the red zone and a forced fumble at a crucial juncture. This was truly a team defense performance. If we played like that every week we'd be a good team. The hope to hold on to going forward is that this isn't a fluke. Maybe the defense is coming into its own to at least be mediocre. (Doesn't help Bailey may be out for a bit though.....fingers crossed on that)
2. This was the second week in a row in which we had our best game statistically in a calendar year. That's not momentum yet but it's moving in the right direction. Last night was only a 0.18 yard per play deficit for us, which is the most competitive FBS game we've had by that measure since last year's Oregon game (in which we had a slightly worse deficit) and UCLA game (somewhat better but a loss). Of course, that you have to go back to September 2021 for a game in which we were more efficient than an opponent is a good illustration of how bad the program is. Fundamentally, last night tells the same story as the Oregon State loss: we played a very good game by our standards and it still wasn't good. That's where we are, win or lose, and it's imperative celebrating the win not lose sight of this.
3. This game was won for two reasons, one that is a credit to us and one that is reflective of tremendous luck. To our credit, the defense was a revelation. Ohio State this year and Cincinnati last year are the only defenses that gave up fewer points to the Irish. Giving up 4.93 yards per play is 0.67 better than the average (and amazingly better than Ohio State did) and 1.36 better than our average. Holding a team to under five yards a play is the first time that's happened since last year's Vanderbilt game, but that's Vandy and Notre Dame is a real offense that came into the game with the #31 Offensive FEI in the nation. In my view this is Stanford's best defensive performance since at least the season opener against Northwestern in 2019, but that offense stunk so a good case can be made it's the best Stanford defensive performance since at least the 2018 Pitt game. The best defensive game in nearly four years is a big accomplishment and big deal.
4. But the other thing that won this game was sheer luck. That will go down as one of the luckiest/unluckiest (depending who you're rooting for) fumble games ever. There were five fumbles in that game and Stanford recovered four of them. We also recovered a blocked punt, an extremely lucky development to avoid a scoop and score (and Notre Dame ended up not scoring at all off that turnover). Finally, there was a pivotal play in the game in which the ruling on the field was that McKee fumbled yet inexplicably the call was overturned on replay, squelching Notre Dame's comeback. Say what you will about how close the knee down/fumble were (I thought essentially simultaneous), to overturn a call of fumble on the field based on that video cannot be explained and robbed Notre Dame. This game will go down as the Fumble Game. Nonetheless, I find it very karmically appropriate it happened this way. Just days after Shaw gave a magnanimous and wise answer about being screwed out of the Stepfan Taylor touchdown in 2012, the break goes our way. We're even, Domers. It is also good karma for our bad turnover luck earlier this season. Sometimes the bounces go your way and sometimes they don't and that's just football. A win is a win.
5. We were in a position to capitalize on the breaks we got because the defense gave such a great performance. After we recovered the punt block, the defense buckled down and made Notre Dame run eight plays to go just 27 yards, including a clutch fourth down stuff at the 5 yard line. After the fumble we recovered in the second quarter, we punted without incident and then the defense forced a three and out. Especially when you account for how the offense did when it got the ball off a turnover or lucky bounce, we did better than Notre Dame in those situations and that made the difference. But the defense was really the star. Giving up 4.41 yards per carry was our best run defense in seven games. Part of that is Notre Dame having a mediocre run game, but for us to even be average in run defense is a triumph for us. I've seen many fans talk about how bad Pyne is but that doesn't ring true for me. That was by far the worst he's done since becoming QB1. On the season he's got the #42 passer rating in the country (McKee is #57) and #64 yards per attempt (McKee is #50). Last night we held Pyne to a passer rating ten points below what even qualifies for top 100 and a yards per attempt almost a yard below that threshold. In Tommy Rees' three years as offensive coordinator, that is one of Notre Dame's four worst passing games, and 2020 Alabama and 2021 Cincinnati forced two of those. Give our guys credit. They terrorized Notre Dame's passing game, relatively speaking. Between the game plan not to let Mayer beat us, whatever else Anderson dialed up, and the effort and execution that led to six pass breakups (compared to one against Oregon State and USC and three against Washington), that was a hell of a job shutting Notre Dame's passing game down.
6. Given such good defensive performance, many players deserve special mention. McGill was having a quiet night....until he wasn't. A fourth quarter tackle for loss, pass interference (shows up as a bad play but it could have gone either way, like the game winner, and the point is he was in the mix contesting), fumble recovery, and clinching pass breakup on 4th and 7 were hero plays when we needed them. Likewise, Herron didn't make his presence known except when he did, and they were gargantuan plays, a sack to force a fumble that we recovered and a sack on 2nd and 4 on Notre Dame's attempt at a winning drive. Don't look now but Herron is #52 in America in sacks. Casey Toohill is the only Cardinal to be top 100 in the last half decade. Mangum-Farrar had easily the night of his life with about four good run stops (one on 4th and 2 near the goal-line!) and a pivotal pass breakup on 3rd and 7 when the game was in the balance. Kelly came back from injury and had two pass breakups. Bonner bounced back from his and Fields' (who again helped a lot in run defense) screw-up last week and gave great coverage, a big yardage-losing tackle for loss, and a run stop. Franklin (a few run stops, a pass batted down, and the fumble recovery) and Moi (batted a pass to force a punt, a few run stops) both had career nights. Williamson's overall grade wasn't great because he got torched for the 41 yard touchdown (which lowered Williamson's season grade enough that Bonner is actually now our top-ranked defender by PFF), but he had a tackle for loss in the red zone and a forced fumble at a crucial juncture. This was truly a team defense performance. If we played like that every week we'd be a good team. The hope to hold on to going forward is that this isn't a fluke. Maybe the defense is coming into its own to at least be mediocre. (Doesn't help Bailey may be out for a bit though.....fingers crossed on that)
