1. Well that sucked. That ranks with Northwestern in 2015 as the worst opener of the Shaw era. Whether there's any silver lining in this cloud depends on whether the team can beat the odds and respond like they did in 2015, which will be tough given the massive drop in talent since then, and whether Shaw can take the screamingly obvious lesson from this game on which quarterback gives the team the best chance to win. The season is almost entirely ahead of us and losing a non-conference opener you were expected to lose does not ruin the season if you don't let it. We did bounce back the one analogous time previously. But there are also depressingly conceivable scenarios in which this game was a harbinger of lack of competitiveness to come. Even worse, as has become soul-crushingly familiar, the prospects of Stanford football actually being fun or nationally relevant in 2021 seem bleak.
2. Both sides of the ball were a disaster yesterday. The offense understandably will get most of the attention because we almost got shut out and only got to the red zone once (!) and the defense did a better job in the second half of bending without breaking (although Kansas State playing with a comfortable lead may have had something to do with that). But both were horrible. The offense's 4.48 yards per play is tied for the 14th most anemic offensive game of the Shaw era (it says a lot that a performance that felt this bad was actually a level of production we see more than once a year on average). The defense's 7.64 yards per play allowed is the eighth most porous defensive game of the Shaw era. Given that Kansas State has Deuce Vaughn, Skylar Thompson, and a veteran offensive line and a less notable defense I don't want to necessarily suggest Stanford's defense was worse than the offense. But I do think that if Kansas State was under any pressure at all they could have put more points on the board. This was an abysmal performance on both sides of the ball for Stanford.
3. After the game Shaw and the players were resolute in saying that the start time had nothing to do with the sluggishness. I really hope these were honorable answers that didn't want to deflect responsibility (it could be read either way in Shaw's case, as the way he said it emphasized that the staff did a great job in preparing for the time difference and the failures were execution issues, which won't endear Shaw to fans sick of incompetence being chalked up to "execution"). The alternative is that Kansas State is a thoroughly better team, which doesn't bode very well for our season. If the heinous performances by Thomas Booker and Walter Rouse didn't have anything to do with their body clocks and they just got neutralized by good but not elite linemen, I'm nervous about the trench battles this season. If we don't win in the trenches it's going to be a very long year.
4. Those failures up front were the biggest story on offense. Walter Rouse's penalties were killer and Myles Hinton got eaten alive all game long. For a team whose run game was supposed to be a major strength, 1.77 yards per carry is the fifth worst run performance in 112 games of Shawfense. 22 carries in a game is tied for the third lowest amount of carries in a game in that span. This is untenable to say the least. Fans will start to wonder about Heffernan as the new OL coach. I suspect that the transition from one coach's points of emphasis/style to another invites growing pains and it's possible Heffernan is a good or great coach but we still have rough sledding ahead. I worry about something more fundamental: we have zero OL in their fourth or fifth years. These guys just may not be ready to be bullies. Coming into the year Branson Bragg was the only one who'd established himself as a run blocker and he graded well yesterday. I worry a ton about the dropoff from all-time great run blocker Drew Dalman to Drake Nugent but Nugent graded alright in run blocking too. The bigger issue may be more worrisome: the overall mix just isn't brutish.
5. If I'm right about that, it puts a lot more pressure on the passing game than is ideal in a QB transition, especially when WR1 is out indefinitely. The biggest silver lining is that yesterday's game created a stark enough contrast in QB play that it could accelerate a decision that will lead to a much higher ceiling for this offense and unlock rhythm that was made impossible by a QB carousel and spring/summer practices that didn't develop chemistry for the offense. But that's only if Shaw pulls the trigger. Tanner McKee this week was 4th of nine qualifying Pac-12 QBs in Total QBR and 3rd of 12 in traditional passer rating. If Jack West had enough attempts to qualify he'd have been 12th of 13. Equally stark, PFF graded McKee as Stanford's best offensive player with 20+ snaps and West as the worst. Most encouraging was the McKee-Humphreys chemistry (and that Tremayne had chemistry with both QBs). This all should make Shaw's decision easy and if he pulls the trigger my optimism for the season goes up considerably. The post-game comments were not encouraging that Shaw saw what all of our eyes and the stats saw. Hopefully he just wanted to re-watch the film and the QB controversy ends today.
6. The other big off-season key was run defense. Lance Anderson's defense failed the game one test. We gave up 6.5 yards per carry, a yard more than we gave up on average last year and over two yards more than Kansas State had on average last year. We talked all year that Booker needed to take the leap from star to megastar. He fell flat on his face out of the starting gates. We talked all year that the healthy ILBs would be game changers. Well, one of the ILBs who has never been healthy turned out to still not be healthy and the others failed to make plays in this game. I'm especially disappointed by Miezan given the hype. This was Curtis Robinson redux. An ILB leading in tackles means absolutely nothing given our scheme. More telling is that Miezan made no impact plays. He was the king of the tackle six yards past the line of scrimmage. Only one of his eight tackles came before that. He needs to get a lot better. Jordan Fox also had a brutally ineffective game. The one front seven player who played well was Dalyn Wade-Perry. That was great to see.
7. I'm never one to let the pass defense off the hook and 10.3 yards per attempt allowed is atrocious, two yards worse than our average last season when we were 115th in the country. That we were that vulnerable against an offense that lacks receiving threats is horrifying heading into an opponent like USC. Slovis, London, and friends are going to dice us up. Still, it was interesting to see the opener corroborate some of the camp vibes so loudly: Kyu Blu Kelly was spectacular, Zahran Manley was pretty solid, and the rest sucked out loud. Kelly looked like the superstar this defense has lacked - anywhere on the defense, including Booker - since Adebo.
8. There were some personnel usage things in this game that raised my eyebrows. After hearing about Tucker Fisk getting 20+ snaps on both sides of the ball, he got 20 snaps on both sides combined. We need to see much more of him. He is one of the most proven blocking tight ends in the nation and our run game was horrible. He got a sack on defense despite the light work. Why in the world would Ryan Johnson get so many snaps? It sure didn't look like he's any different from the pretty bad player he's always been. Unless Fisk was hurt, which would be bad in its own right, we need to see more of him on both sides of the ball. The running back snaps were also curious. We heard all year about needing to get Nate Peat more involved yet EJ Smith got significantly more snaps (maybe that will flip outside of Jerry World?). Based on what we've seen from the two of them the last seven games I have much greater confidence in Peat's big play ability. At fullback, I have no earthly idea why Jay Symonds would split snaps with the much more proven Houston Heimuli. On defense, I have no reason to think the coaches are erring in who deserves to play, but if Williamson and Williams being our best safeties is as clear cut as it appears that says very depressing things about our young safeties like Porter and Gilman. Williamson and Williams stink. I'm desperate for one of the true freshmen to emerge and am really disappointed none of them got any snaps as it makes me worry they're not good either.
9. Ryan Sanborn was good but not great. Half of his punts were on the money and half of them left some yards on the table. Given that Kansas State under Klieman is known for special teams, this was a phase that could have gone worse for us and instead I think it was a negligible factor in the game. We lost because of the battles in the trenches and because we didn't have McKee as the clear QB1.
10. Game balls: McKee, Kelly, Sanborn, Bobby Kennedy
11. After the stinker at Northwestern we had a big mid-September win at USC (albeit after a game in between) to put that season on a different trajectory. I hope against hope that history can repeat itself but am chastened by the fact we needed an offensive explosion for that to happen, which seems very far away for this Shawfense. Given my worries with the offensive line's brutishness especially, the key that needs to be unlocked is McKee. If he's named the clear QB1 by Tuesday I may fly out for this game, if not I don't hold out much hope.
2. Both sides of the ball were a disaster yesterday. The offense understandably will get most of the attention because we almost got shut out and only got to the red zone once (!) and the defense did a better job in the second half of bending without breaking (although Kansas State playing with a comfortable lead may have had something to do with that). But both were horrible. The offense's 4.48 yards per play is tied for the 14th most anemic offensive game of the Shaw era (it says a lot that a performance that felt this bad was actually a level of production we see more than once a year on average). The defense's 7.64 yards per play allowed is the eighth most porous defensive game of the Shaw era. Given that Kansas State has Deuce Vaughn, Skylar Thompson, and a veteran offensive line and a less notable defense I don't want to necessarily suggest Stanford's defense was worse than the offense. But I do think that if Kansas State was under any pressure at all they could have put more points on the board. This was an abysmal performance on both sides of the ball for Stanford.
3. After the game Shaw and the players were resolute in saying that the start time had nothing to do with the sluggishness. I really hope these were honorable answers that didn't want to deflect responsibility (it could be read either way in Shaw's case, as the way he said it emphasized that the staff did a great job in preparing for the time difference and the failures were execution issues, which won't endear Shaw to fans sick of incompetence being chalked up to "execution"). The alternative is that Kansas State is a thoroughly better team, which doesn't bode very well for our season. If the heinous performances by Thomas Booker and Walter Rouse didn't have anything to do with their body clocks and they just got neutralized by good but not elite linemen, I'm nervous about the trench battles this season. If we don't win in the trenches it's going to be a very long year.
4. Those failures up front were the biggest story on offense. Walter Rouse's penalties were killer and Myles Hinton got eaten alive all game long. For a team whose run game was supposed to be a major strength, 1.77 yards per carry is the fifth worst run performance in 112 games of Shawfense. 22 carries in a game is tied for the third lowest amount of carries in a game in that span. This is untenable to say the least. Fans will start to wonder about Heffernan as the new OL coach. I suspect that the transition from one coach's points of emphasis/style to another invites growing pains and it's possible Heffernan is a good or great coach but we still have rough sledding ahead. I worry about something more fundamental: we have zero OL in their fourth or fifth years. These guys just may not be ready to be bullies. Coming into the year Branson Bragg was the only one who'd established himself as a run blocker and he graded well yesterday. I worry a ton about the dropoff from all-time great run blocker Drew Dalman to Drake Nugent but Nugent graded alright in run blocking too. The bigger issue may be more worrisome: the overall mix just isn't brutish.
5. If I'm right about that, it puts a lot more pressure on the passing game than is ideal in a QB transition, especially when WR1 is out indefinitely. The biggest silver lining is that yesterday's game created a stark enough contrast in QB play that it could accelerate a decision that will lead to a much higher ceiling for this offense and unlock rhythm that was made impossible by a QB carousel and spring/summer practices that didn't develop chemistry for the offense. But that's only if Shaw pulls the trigger. Tanner McKee this week was 4th of nine qualifying Pac-12 QBs in Total QBR and 3rd of 12 in traditional passer rating. If Jack West had enough attempts to qualify he'd have been 12th of 13. Equally stark, PFF graded McKee as Stanford's best offensive player with 20+ snaps and West as the worst. Most encouraging was the McKee-Humphreys chemistry (and that Tremayne had chemistry with both QBs). This all should make Shaw's decision easy and if he pulls the trigger my optimism for the season goes up considerably. The post-game comments were not encouraging that Shaw saw what all of our eyes and the stats saw. Hopefully he just wanted to re-watch the film and the QB controversy ends today.
6. The other big off-season key was run defense. Lance Anderson's defense failed the game one test. We gave up 6.5 yards per carry, a yard more than we gave up on average last year and over two yards more than Kansas State had on average last year. We talked all year that Booker needed to take the leap from star to megastar. He fell flat on his face out of the starting gates. We talked all year that the healthy ILBs would be game changers. Well, one of the ILBs who has never been healthy turned out to still not be healthy and the others failed to make plays in this game. I'm especially disappointed by Miezan given the hype. This was Curtis Robinson redux. An ILB leading in tackles means absolutely nothing given our scheme. More telling is that Miezan made no impact plays. He was the king of the tackle six yards past the line of scrimmage. Only one of his eight tackles came before that. He needs to get a lot better. Jordan Fox also had a brutally ineffective game. The one front seven player who played well was Dalyn Wade-Perry. That was great to see.
7. I'm never one to let the pass defense off the hook and 10.3 yards per attempt allowed is atrocious, two yards worse than our average last season when we were 115th in the country. That we were that vulnerable against an offense that lacks receiving threats is horrifying heading into an opponent like USC. Slovis, London, and friends are going to dice us up. Still, it was interesting to see the opener corroborate some of the camp vibes so loudly: Kyu Blu Kelly was spectacular, Zahran Manley was pretty solid, and the rest sucked out loud. Kelly looked like the superstar this defense has lacked - anywhere on the defense, including Booker - since Adebo.
8. There were some personnel usage things in this game that raised my eyebrows. After hearing about Tucker Fisk getting 20+ snaps on both sides of the ball, he got 20 snaps on both sides combined. We need to see much more of him. He is one of the most proven blocking tight ends in the nation and our run game was horrible. He got a sack on defense despite the light work. Why in the world would Ryan Johnson get so many snaps? It sure didn't look like he's any different from the pretty bad player he's always been. Unless Fisk was hurt, which would be bad in its own right, we need to see more of him on both sides of the ball. The running back snaps were also curious. We heard all year about needing to get Nate Peat more involved yet EJ Smith got significantly more snaps (maybe that will flip outside of Jerry World?). Based on what we've seen from the two of them the last seven games I have much greater confidence in Peat's big play ability. At fullback, I have no earthly idea why Jay Symonds would split snaps with the much more proven Houston Heimuli. On defense, I have no reason to think the coaches are erring in who deserves to play, but if Williamson and Williams being our best safeties is as clear cut as it appears that says very depressing things about our young safeties like Porter and Gilman. Williamson and Williams stink. I'm desperate for one of the true freshmen to emerge and am really disappointed none of them got any snaps as it makes me worry they're not good either.
9. Ryan Sanborn was good but not great. Half of his punts were on the money and half of them left some yards on the table. Given that Kansas State under Klieman is known for special teams, this was a phase that could have gone worse for us and instead I think it was a negligible factor in the game. We lost because of the battles in the trenches and because we didn't have McKee as the clear QB1.
10. Game balls: McKee, Kelly, Sanborn, Bobby Kennedy
11. After the stinker at Northwestern we had a big mid-September win at USC (albeit after a game in between) to put that season on a different trajectory. I hope against hope that history can repeat itself but am chastened by the fact we needed an offensive explosion for that to happen, which seems very far away for this Shawfense. Given my worries with the offensive line's brutishness especially, the key that needs to be unlocked is McKee. If he's named the clear QB1 by Tuesday I may fly out for this game, if not I don't hold out much hope.
