One of my favorite days of the year ten years running, the day I can make a too-early list of impact players in the conference for the next year based on the all-conference list! As always, we'll want to revisit this in late-January to see who falls off the list because of departure to the NFL or other attrition, but for now (as always, first and second teamers bolded)....
Arizona (0)
ZERO (!)
Comment: This is actually the second year in a row this has happened, which is beyond pathetic. It is very rare to see at all. Two years in a row = program in a tailspin.
Arizona State (3)
DL JoJo Wicker
LB Koron Crump
WR N'Keal Harry
Comment: Major star power in the front seven with that duo unless Crump leaves early, which I could see happening. Harry is a true freshman so along with Demetris Robertson you'd expect him to be one of the stars of the conference for a while at WR. Note that ASU also should return 2015 all-conference honoree DL Tashon Smallwood, blocked from this year's team by how many great DL there were in the conference.
Cal (3)
WR Chad Hansen
DL James Looney
K Matt Anderson
Comment: Hansen is good, obviously. I think Marks getting first team over him was an unfortunate lifetime achievement thing. Big question is who Hansen will have to play with at QB. Would seem like an attractive spot for Blake Barnett.
Colorado (7)
RB Phillip Lindsay
OL Jeromy Irwin
ST Ryan Moeller
WR Bryce Bobo
WR Shay Fields
WR Devin Ross
OL Gerrad Kough
Comment: Umm, look out. I think I bought into the narrative that Colorado losing three uber-elite DBs and their starting QB at once would bring the program crashing down, but I don't think that's a good bet. This is some kind of offensive talent returning. Two second teamers, two all-conference OL, skill position options everywhere.....really, really good offense next year. Not saying it's enough to get them back to the level they're at this year, but it sort of feels like a Pitt 2016 situation of great offense, really bad defense. Will withhold judgment until I can look at the roster more but that's my provisional take.
Oregon (6)
AP/ST Tony Brooks-James
RB Royce Freeman
OL Jake Hanson
OL Calvin Throckmorton
LB Troy Dye
RS Charles Nelson
Comment: We'll have to see how this holds up to NFL decisions, with Freeman seeming likely to bolt unless he has an attitude adjustment/desire to rebuild his stock in him. Most notable to me is not only two OL, but two currently freshmen OL. Interesting core of a future offense given Oregon's perennial ability to do fine with skill position players. Coupled with Herbert as a freshman QB, maybe the Ducks have some fight in them going forward.
Oregon State (3)
RB Ryan Nall
OL Gus Lavaka
DB Xavier Crawford
Comment: I'd call this an arrow up on their program, as YE foretold. Going into this season, they had two returning honorable mention special teams players. Yawn. Three offense/defense guys returning is a lot more exciting. And one of those specialists is back next year, though the punter wasn't all-conference this year.
Stanford (11)
RB/RS Christian McCaffrey
DL Solomon Thomas
RB Bryce Love
TE Dalton Schultz
DL Harrison Phillips
LB Joey Alfieri
LB Kevin Palma
DB Quenton Meeks
DB Justin Reid
P Jake Bailey
ST Brandon Simmons
Comment: Stanford's back! Although there is substantial risk McCaffrey and/or Thomas are gone, which is the third most substantial truly elite - first team - attrition risk anybody in the conference faces after Washington and USC, this puts into stark relief what I've been saying all along: we can lose any two players, even those two, and still be one of the contenders nationally going into next year. We look guaranteed to have multiple returning all-conference guys in all three phases. Remarkable. And that defense. Wow. 5-6 guys have already been recognized as all-conference before the season even starts. Reminiscent of the Washington defense heading into 2016. Also note that Daniel Marx is a past all-conference guy who was mostly injured this year and returns next year. For those trying to track this by year, we only had five by this measure going into the year.
UCLA (5)
OL Scott Quessenberry
LB Kenny Young
WR Darren Andrews
DL Eddie Vanderdoes
DB Jaleel Wadood
Comment: Not bad, but identical to how they looked by this measure going into last season, except with less truly top-end talent. Moreover, Vanderdoes has already declared for the NFL draft and I'm only including him for now for completeness. Quessenberry and Wadood have each made all-conference multiple times so that's very noteworthy, but I see no reason to think UCLA has an uptick coming.
USC (11)
RB Ronald Jones III
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
OL Damien Mama
LB Cameron Smith
DB/RS Adoree' Jackson
QB Sam Darnold
TE Daniel Imatorbhebhe
DL Rasheem Green
DL Porter Gustin
DB Chris Hawkins
DB Imam Marshall
Comment: USC is back too, in a big way, though they face even more attrition risk than Stanford. We'll have to see how NFL decisions shake out before we know how much of the truly impact bolded portion remains. But they are assured of having at least three returning all-conference guys on either side of the ball. Definitely a lot of talent next year no matter what. OL is the big question mark - two first teamers are out of eligibility and Mama has now made all-conference twice so may not have anything more to prove before going to the NFL. That is not a small question mark, as we were reminded this season. Also note that RB Justin Davis is a previous honoree.
Utah (6)
OL Garett Bolles
DB Marcus Williams
P Mitch Wishnowsky
DL Lowell Lotulelei
DL Filipo Mokofisi
DB Chase Hansen
Comment: Just a good steady program we don't talk much about because we don't play them. That said, their prospects hang on NFL decisions more than you'd think. Williams is undeniably elite and on all draft boards so may be an early departure. Bolles has eligibility for a sixth year next year but not everybody wants to stick around for six years, not to mention that he's LDS so may or may not want to continue being an old man bullying kids. Lotulelei is a big name NFL prospect who had a much better year in 2015 and may move on. Could see this either being a super strong team in the trenches - in which case there's always a puncher's chance - or a team rebuilding a bit.
Washington (12)
QB Jake Browning
RB Myles Gaskin
WR John Ross
OL Trey Adams
OL Coleman Shelton
DL Elijah Qualls
DL Vita Vea
LB Azeem Victor
LB Keishawn Bierra
DB Budda Baker
DB Sidney Jones
RS Dante Pettis
TE Drew Sample
DL Greg Gaines
Comment: Ladies and gentlemen, not only your unanimous preseason Pac-12 favorite but probably close to unanimous preseason playoff team as well. Yes, they could have one of the highest number of early departures in the nation, but a ton of guys will be back. Say they lose five guys to the NFL, that's still a powerhouse. And the upside of only losing some number less than that borders on scary. While I am not yet buying the theory Washington has supplanted Stanford as the class of the conference going forward, for one more year Washington is certainly the favorite. I think the offense is guaranteed to be nationally elite next year with probably five elite guys. The defense will be in big-time wait and see mode waiting on those NFL decisions.
Washington State (6)
QB Luke Falk
DL Hercules Mata'afa
RB Jamal Morrow
OL Cole Madison
OL Cody O'Connell
LB Peyton Pelluer
Comment: Washington State should still be good next year, though Falk's decision is a big one for them and in such a weak QB year nationally and hype that he could be a first or second rounder I see it as highly likely he goes. Even still, multiple returning all-conference guys on both sides of the ball. If O'Connell reads his clippings from PFF it will be interesting to see if he tests the waters. Obviously Washington State is a lot less scary if they don't have one of the top quarterbacks and offensive lines in the country. Big wildcard for next year.
Overall comment: Little doubt Washington, USC, and Stanford will be the favorites in the conference, probably in that order and probably all top 12 nationally preseason. But this exercise makes Colorado much more interesting to me than I had been thinking. And my gut feel doing this exercise every year and seeing ebbs and flows in talent levels is that the Pac-12 will be a bit better next year than it was this year.
Arizona (0)
ZERO (!)
Comment: This is actually the second year in a row this has happened, which is beyond pathetic. It is very rare to see at all. Two years in a row = program in a tailspin.
Arizona State (3)
DL JoJo Wicker
LB Koron Crump
WR N'Keal Harry
Comment: Major star power in the front seven with that duo unless Crump leaves early, which I could see happening. Harry is a true freshman so along with Demetris Robertson you'd expect him to be one of the stars of the conference for a while at WR. Note that ASU also should return 2015 all-conference honoree DL Tashon Smallwood, blocked from this year's team by how many great DL there were in the conference.
Cal (3)
WR Chad Hansen
DL James Looney
K Matt Anderson
Comment: Hansen is good, obviously. I think Marks getting first team over him was an unfortunate lifetime achievement thing. Big question is who Hansen will have to play with at QB. Would seem like an attractive spot for Blake Barnett.
Colorado (7)
RB Phillip Lindsay
OL Jeromy Irwin
ST Ryan Moeller
WR Bryce Bobo
WR Shay Fields
WR Devin Ross
OL Gerrad Kough
Comment: Umm, look out. I think I bought into the narrative that Colorado losing three uber-elite DBs and their starting QB at once would bring the program crashing down, but I don't think that's a good bet. This is some kind of offensive talent returning. Two second teamers, two all-conference OL, skill position options everywhere.....really, really good offense next year. Not saying it's enough to get them back to the level they're at this year, but it sort of feels like a Pitt 2016 situation of great offense, really bad defense. Will withhold judgment until I can look at the roster more but that's my provisional take.
Oregon (6)
AP/ST Tony Brooks-James
RB Royce Freeman
OL Jake Hanson
OL Calvin Throckmorton
LB Troy Dye
RS Charles Nelson
Comment: We'll have to see how this holds up to NFL decisions, with Freeman seeming likely to bolt unless he has an attitude adjustment/desire to rebuild his stock in him. Most notable to me is not only two OL, but two currently freshmen OL. Interesting core of a future offense given Oregon's perennial ability to do fine with skill position players. Coupled with Herbert as a freshman QB, maybe the Ducks have some fight in them going forward.
Oregon State (3)
RB Ryan Nall
OL Gus Lavaka
DB Xavier Crawford
Comment: I'd call this an arrow up on their program, as YE foretold. Going into this season, they had two returning honorable mention special teams players. Yawn. Three offense/defense guys returning is a lot more exciting. And one of those specialists is back next year, though the punter wasn't all-conference this year.
Stanford (11)
RB/RS Christian McCaffrey
DL Solomon Thomas
RB Bryce Love
TE Dalton Schultz
DL Harrison Phillips
LB Joey Alfieri
LB Kevin Palma
DB Quenton Meeks
DB Justin Reid
P Jake Bailey
ST Brandon Simmons
Comment: Stanford's back! Although there is substantial risk McCaffrey and/or Thomas are gone, which is the third most substantial truly elite - first team - attrition risk anybody in the conference faces after Washington and USC, this puts into stark relief what I've been saying all along: we can lose any two players, even those two, and still be one of the contenders nationally going into next year. We look guaranteed to have multiple returning all-conference guys in all three phases. Remarkable. And that defense. Wow. 5-6 guys have already been recognized as all-conference before the season even starts. Reminiscent of the Washington defense heading into 2016. Also note that Daniel Marx is a past all-conference guy who was mostly injured this year and returns next year. For those trying to track this by year, we only had five by this measure going into the year.
UCLA (5)
OL Scott Quessenberry
LB Kenny Young
WR Darren Andrews
DL Eddie Vanderdoes
DB Jaleel Wadood
Comment: Not bad, but identical to how they looked by this measure going into last season, except with less truly top-end talent. Moreover, Vanderdoes has already declared for the NFL draft and I'm only including him for now for completeness. Quessenberry and Wadood have each made all-conference multiple times so that's very noteworthy, but I see no reason to think UCLA has an uptick coming.
USC (11)
RB Ronald Jones III
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
OL Damien Mama
LB Cameron Smith
DB/RS Adoree' Jackson
QB Sam Darnold
TE Daniel Imatorbhebhe
DL Rasheem Green
DL Porter Gustin
DB Chris Hawkins
DB Imam Marshall
Comment: USC is back too, in a big way, though they face even more attrition risk than Stanford. We'll have to see how NFL decisions shake out before we know how much of the truly impact bolded portion remains. But they are assured of having at least three returning all-conference guys on either side of the ball. Definitely a lot of talent next year no matter what. OL is the big question mark - two first teamers are out of eligibility and Mama has now made all-conference twice so may not have anything more to prove before going to the NFL. That is not a small question mark, as we were reminded this season. Also note that RB Justin Davis is a previous honoree.
Utah (6)
OL Garett Bolles
DB Marcus Williams
P Mitch Wishnowsky
DL Lowell Lotulelei
DL Filipo Mokofisi
DB Chase Hansen
Comment: Just a good steady program we don't talk much about because we don't play them. That said, their prospects hang on NFL decisions more than you'd think. Williams is undeniably elite and on all draft boards so may be an early departure. Bolles has eligibility for a sixth year next year but not everybody wants to stick around for six years, not to mention that he's LDS so may or may not want to continue being an old man bullying kids. Lotulelei is a big name NFL prospect who had a much better year in 2015 and may move on. Could see this either being a super strong team in the trenches - in which case there's always a puncher's chance - or a team rebuilding a bit.
Washington (12)
QB Jake Browning
RB Myles Gaskin
WR John Ross
OL Trey Adams
OL Coleman Shelton
DL Elijah Qualls
DL Vita Vea
LB Azeem Victor
LB Keishawn Bierra
DB Budda Baker
DB Sidney Jones
RS Dante Pettis
TE Drew Sample
DL Greg Gaines
Comment: Ladies and gentlemen, not only your unanimous preseason Pac-12 favorite but probably close to unanimous preseason playoff team as well. Yes, they could have one of the highest number of early departures in the nation, but a ton of guys will be back. Say they lose five guys to the NFL, that's still a powerhouse. And the upside of only losing some number less than that borders on scary. While I am not yet buying the theory Washington has supplanted Stanford as the class of the conference going forward, for one more year Washington is certainly the favorite. I think the offense is guaranteed to be nationally elite next year with probably five elite guys. The defense will be in big-time wait and see mode waiting on those NFL decisions.
Washington State (6)
QB Luke Falk
DL Hercules Mata'afa
RB Jamal Morrow
OL Cole Madison
OL Cody O'Connell
LB Peyton Pelluer
Comment: Washington State should still be good next year, though Falk's decision is a big one for them and in such a weak QB year nationally and hype that he could be a first or second rounder I see it as highly likely he goes. Even still, multiple returning all-conference guys on both sides of the ball. If O'Connell reads his clippings from PFF it will be interesting to see if he tests the waters. Obviously Washington State is a lot less scary if they don't have one of the top quarterbacks and offensive lines in the country. Big wildcard for next year.
Overall comment: Little doubt Washington, USC, and Stanford will be the favorites in the conference, probably in that order and probably all top 12 nationally preseason. But this exercise makes Colorado much more interesting to me than I had been thinking. And my gut feel doing this exercise every year and seeing ebbs and flows in talent levels is that the Pac-12 will be a bit better next year than it was this year.
