Ranking by Elite Offers
(based on Sagarin top 2o teams last three seasons;
the second number includes,
as an elite offer, one from Notre Dame and/or Michigan.)
Jeffrey McCulloch 16/18
Kaden Smith 9/10
Nygel Edmonds 9’10
Michael Williams 9/10
Curtis Robinson 7/9
Obi Eboh 7
KJ Costello 5/6
Clark Yarbrough 5/6
Andrew Pryts 4/6
David Long 4/6
Stealth 2 4/5
Thomas Schaffer 4
Jovan Swann 3
Bo Peek 3
Brandon Stephens 3
Beau Bisharat 3
Chacho Ulloa 2/3
Trevor Speights 2
Henry Hattis 2
Donald Stewart 1/2
Simi Fehoko 1/2
Scooter Harrington 1
Non-scoring Stanford commits or possible commits,
with best offers and that offering team’s 2015 Sagarin ranking)
Malik Antoine (Utah 24, Oklahoma State, 26, Northwestern 44)
Treyjohn Butler (Washington 25, ASU 41, WSU 43, Northwestern 44)
Nate Herbig (WSU 43, San Diego State 45, Texas Tech 47)
Dylan Powell (Navy 31, Va Tech 46. Georgia Tech 54)
B McElwain (fullback) no offers
McNitzy (long snapper) (Army 140, Air Force 73)
Toner (kicker) (Army 140 )
Paxton Segina (Air Force 73, Rice 139)
Teams included as “elite” offers:
Oregon, Stanford, USC, UCLA from the Pac-12;
Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Auburn, Missouri (yes), Georgia, SEC;
Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma, Big 12;
FSU and Clemson, ACC;
Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, Big 10.
Thoughts:
As with any attempt to rate prospects, this one is imperfect.
The following Stanford players who made earned at least one all-conference HM scored zero by this metric: Tarpley, Reynolds, Caspers, Martinez, and Marx.
So did Alijah Holder, a starter as a redshirt freshman and budding star, and Mike Rector.
Budding superstar Quenton Meeks scored only one,
as did 2013 All Con mention Zach Hoffpauir and 2013 true freshman starter Harrison Phillips.
So player with zeroes and ones can become excellent starters, even stars.
And of course, guys at the top of any year’s list don’t always start, much less star.
Jordan Watkins is the most vivid example,
with Noor Davis and JR Patterson, a one year starter, not far behind.
James Vaughters and Wayne Lyons also had uber elite offer lists.
But using this list also would suggest to someone that Cam Fleming—with a 6—might get to the NFL,
and that Henry Anderson was a true four star recruit, no matter what Rivals, Scout, and ESPN said.
The number of misses by the ranking services on Stanford linemen is remarkable, in fact.
Before the 2012 class, the only four star OLs that Stanford signed were Dillon Bonnell and Bradon Austin—and not David DeCastro, Jonathan Martin, Cameron Fleming, David Yankey,
or other OLs who earned at least one all conference HM team:
Wilkes, Danser, Schwartzstein, and Caspers, the latter two rated 5.4 and 5.5 by Rivals.
And note that fullbacks get few offers, and long snappers and kickers fewer still.
By this metric, four of our possible late signees would rank in the final top 11 of this class.
And by this metric, Edmonds is the biggest loss,
although he benefits from being from Louisiana,
the near-center of the Elite Offer cluster. (See next),
Four of the top five players listed are from Tcxas,
and the fifth is from adjacent Louisiana.
11 of the top 20 teams—including Arkansas, Oklahoma, the two Mississippi schools, are close enough to Texas to believe they could lure a Texan, along with the two Texas schools, Baylor and TCU.
By contrast, a West Coast prospect can max out at three Cal school offers—#4 Stanford, #14 USC, and #19 UCLA—and adjacent, but distant, Oregon, but the next nearest school would be TCU. So this list likely rewards Southern and Southwest players and penalizes West Coast kids.
It’s also unkind to Northeastern prospects; their only relatively nearby schools in the Sagarin three-year top 20 are Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, and Madison, Wisconsin is huge trek for a New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, or Maryland player.
So based on this, you can call Curtis Robinson an uber recruit; a Californian with seven offers from top 20 teams has hit gold. And Schaffer (Illinois) and Swann (Indiana) do well for Heartland players.
(Andy's Edit: Thanks for the post, Hulk! Interesting and informative as usual. I apologize to be somewhat overbearing on this, but out of respect to my sources + the kid himself, let's please continue to refer to Stealth 2 as Stealth 2. I realize it's probably a little bit over the top at this point, but I think it's for the best. After Signing Day I can explain a little bit more why discretion is important here, perhaps even more than usual. Thanks!)
(based on Sagarin top 2o teams last three seasons;
the second number includes,
as an elite offer, one from Notre Dame and/or Michigan.)
Jeffrey McCulloch 16/18
Kaden Smith 9/10
Nygel Edmonds 9’10
Michael Williams 9/10
Curtis Robinson 7/9
Obi Eboh 7
KJ Costello 5/6
Clark Yarbrough 5/6
Andrew Pryts 4/6
David Long 4/6
Stealth 2 4/5
Thomas Schaffer 4
Jovan Swann 3
Bo Peek 3
Brandon Stephens 3
Beau Bisharat 3
Chacho Ulloa 2/3
Trevor Speights 2
Henry Hattis 2
Donald Stewart 1/2
Simi Fehoko 1/2
Scooter Harrington 1
Non-scoring Stanford commits or possible commits,
with best offers and that offering team’s 2015 Sagarin ranking)
Malik Antoine (Utah 24, Oklahoma State, 26, Northwestern 44)
Treyjohn Butler (Washington 25, ASU 41, WSU 43, Northwestern 44)
Nate Herbig (WSU 43, San Diego State 45, Texas Tech 47)
Dylan Powell (Navy 31, Va Tech 46. Georgia Tech 54)
B McElwain (fullback) no offers
McNitzy (long snapper) (Army 140, Air Force 73)
Toner (kicker) (Army 140 )
Paxton Segina (Air Force 73, Rice 139)
Teams included as “elite” offers:
Oregon, Stanford, USC, UCLA from the Pac-12;
Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Auburn, Missouri (yes), Georgia, SEC;
Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma, Big 12;
FSU and Clemson, ACC;
Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, Big 10.
Thoughts:
As with any attempt to rate prospects, this one is imperfect.
The following Stanford players who made earned at least one all-conference HM scored zero by this metric: Tarpley, Reynolds, Caspers, Martinez, and Marx.
So did Alijah Holder, a starter as a redshirt freshman and budding star, and Mike Rector.
Budding superstar Quenton Meeks scored only one,
as did 2013 All Con mention Zach Hoffpauir and 2013 true freshman starter Harrison Phillips.
So player with zeroes and ones can become excellent starters, even stars.
And of course, guys at the top of any year’s list don’t always start, much less star.
Jordan Watkins is the most vivid example,
with Noor Davis and JR Patterson, a one year starter, not far behind.
James Vaughters and Wayne Lyons also had uber elite offer lists.
But using this list also would suggest to someone that Cam Fleming—with a 6—might get to the NFL,
and that Henry Anderson was a true four star recruit, no matter what Rivals, Scout, and ESPN said.
The number of misses by the ranking services on Stanford linemen is remarkable, in fact.
Before the 2012 class, the only four star OLs that Stanford signed were Dillon Bonnell and Bradon Austin—and not David DeCastro, Jonathan Martin, Cameron Fleming, David Yankey,
or other OLs who earned at least one all conference HM team:
Wilkes, Danser, Schwartzstein, and Caspers, the latter two rated 5.4 and 5.5 by Rivals.
And note that fullbacks get few offers, and long snappers and kickers fewer still.
By this metric, four of our possible late signees would rank in the final top 11 of this class.
And by this metric, Edmonds is the biggest loss,
although he benefits from being from Louisiana,
the near-center of the Elite Offer cluster. (See next),
Four of the top five players listed are from Tcxas,
and the fifth is from adjacent Louisiana.
11 of the top 20 teams—including Arkansas, Oklahoma, the two Mississippi schools, are close enough to Texas to believe they could lure a Texan, along with the two Texas schools, Baylor and TCU.
By contrast, a West Coast prospect can max out at three Cal school offers—#4 Stanford, #14 USC, and #19 UCLA—and adjacent, but distant, Oregon, but the next nearest school would be TCU. So this list likely rewards Southern and Southwest players and penalizes West Coast kids.
It’s also unkind to Northeastern prospects; their only relatively nearby schools in the Sagarin three-year top 20 are Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, and Madison, Wisconsin is huge trek for a New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, or Maryland player.
So based on this, you can call Curtis Robinson an uber recruit; a Californian with seven offers from top 20 teams has hit gold. And Schaffer (Illinois) and Swann (Indiana) do well for Heartland players.
(Andy's Edit: Thanks for the post, Hulk! Interesting and informative as usual. I apologize to be somewhat overbearing on this, but out of respect to my sources + the kid himself, let's please continue to refer to Stealth 2 as Stealth 2. I realize it's probably a little bit over the top at this point, but I think it's for the best. After Signing Day I can explain a little bit more why discretion is important here, perhaps even more than usual. Thanks!)
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