I was curious thinking about the miss with Rosen and the hit with Costello, how likely is a five star pro style QB to succeed in college and pros. I did a little retrospective on 247's five star QBs from 2000, the first data available on the website. It is a pretty mixed bag. While there is no doubt that some of them flamed out spectacularly, a number, certainly higher than average, were drafted. But not many in the first round. And success in the NFL is far from assured. I wonder how much hubris counts in the equation; the stroking a five star QB gets is over the top (see Clausen, Jimmy) and it would not be hard to imagine that it can go to the head of an 18 year old kid. It also looks like the scouts are getting better at predicting success in college. Anyway, here is the compilation. By all means if I missed something or misstated something, which is likely, let me know and I will correct it.
2000
Brock Berlin, Florida, U of Miami, undrafted free agent
Jeff Smoker, Michigan State, 6th round to Rams, played two years
Chance Mock, Texas, arena football
Casey Clausen, Tennessee, no pro (Jimmy’s older brother)
Jason Campbell, Auburn, first round to Redskins, played for various teams, currently free agent and probably retiring
2001
Brodie Croyle, Alabama, 3rd round to Chiefs, many injuries, retired 2012
Joe Mauer, committed to Florida State, then turned them down to go to play major league baseball, currently catcher for the Twins
2002
Ben Olson, BYU, transferred to UCLA, retired in college due to injuries
Trent Edwards, Stanford, drafted 3rd round by Bills, currently free agent
Justin Zwick, Ohio State, area football
2003
Kyle Wright, Miami, undrafted free agent Vikings, 49ers
Chris Leak, Florida, cut one year after being signed as free agent with Bears
2004
Rhett Bomar, Oklahoma (thrown off team for taking money from boosters, finished at Sam Houston State), drafted 5th round by Giants, waived after one year, other brief NFL stints
Anthony Morelli, Penn State, undrafted free agent for Cardinals, cut after one season
Chad Henne, Michigan, drafted by Dolphins in second round, still in the league as Jaguars’ QB
2005
Mark Sanchez, USC, fifth overall to the Jets, a little bumpy since, but the Eagles just signed him to a two-year, $16mm contract
2006
Matthew Stafford, UGA, drafted first overall by the Lions, where he still is starting QB
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas and then USC as third string, arena football
2007
Jimmy Clausen, ND, drafted second round by Panthers, waived in 2013, now backup to Jay Cutler for Bears
Ryan Mallett, Michigan and Arkansas, third round to the Patriots, traded to Texans, started in 2014 until he tore his pectoral
2008
Dayne Crist, ND and Kansas, worst QB rating in 1A at Kansas, signed as free agent with Ravens, waived during first year
2009
Matt Barkley, USC, fourth round pick to Eagles,
Garrett Gilbert, Texas and SMU, 6th round to the Rams, waived first year, Patriots waived him, now with the Lions
2010
Phil Sims, Alabama, Virginia and Winston-Salem State, signed as free agent with Cardinals
2011
None
2012
Gunner Kiel, ND and Cincinnati
2013
Max Browne, USC
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
2014
Kyle Allen, Texas A&M
2015
Josh Rosen, UCLA
Blake Barnett, Alabama
2000
Brock Berlin, Florida, U of Miami, undrafted free agent
Jeff Smoker, Michigan State, 6th round to Rams, played two years
Chance Mock, Texas, arena football
Casey Clausen, Tennessee, no pro (Jimmy’s older brother)
Jason Campbell, Auburn, first round to Redskins, played for various teams, currently free agent and probably retiring
2001
Brodie Croyle, Alabama, 3rd round to Chiefs, many injuries, retired 2012
Joe Mauer, committed to Florida State, then turned them down to go to play major league baseball, currently catcher for the Twins
2002
Ben Olson, BYU, transferred to UCLA, retired in college due to injuries
Trent Edwards, Stanford, drafted 3rd round by Bills, currently free agent
Justin Zwick, Ohio State, area football
2003
Kyle Wright, Miami, undrafted free agent Vikings, 49ers
Chris Leak, Florida, cut one year after being signed as free agent with Bears
2004
Rhett Bomar, Oklahoma (thrown off team for taking money from boosters, finished at Sam Houston State), drafted 5th round by Giants, waived after one year, other brief NFL stints
Anthony Morelli, Penn State, undrafted free agent for Cardinals, cut after one season
Chad Henne, Michigan, drafted by Dolphins in second round, still in the league as Jaguars’ QB
2005
Mark Sanchez, USC, fifth overall to the Jets, a little bumpy since, but the Eagles just signed him to a two-year, $16mm contract
2006
Matthew Stafford, UGA, drafted first overall by the Lions, where he still is starting QB
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas and then USC as third string, arena football
2007
Jimmy Clausen, ND, drafted second round by Panthers, waived in 2013, now backup to Jay Cutler for Bears
Ryan Mallett, Michigan and Arkansas, third round to the Patriots, traded to Texans, started in 2014 until he tore his pectoral
2008
Dayne Crist, ND and Kansas, worst QB rating in 1A at Kansas, signed as free agent with Ravens, waived during first year
2009
Matt Barkley, USC, fourth round pick to Eagles,
Garrett Gilbert, Texas and SMU, 6th round to the Rams, waived first year, Patriots waived him, now with the Lions
2010
Phil Sims, Alabama, Virginia and Winston-Salem State, signed as free agent with Cardinals
2011
None
2012
Gunner Kiel, ND and Cincinnati
2013
Max Browne, USC
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
2014
Kyle Allen, Texas A&M
2015
Josh Rosen, UCLA
Blake Barnett, Alabama
