How good might this year’s defense be?
After the 2009 season, in which we allowed 26.5 points per game—the most in our last seven seasons—-we lost only five of the players who ranked in our top 15 for tackles. The next year’s defense, not surprisingly, improved: It allowed only 17.4 points per game.
Was there some pattern here in the seasons that followed? Some.
Top 15 tacklers lost Points allowed per game Change
2010: 5 -- 17.4 -- -9.1
2011: 9 -- 21.9 -- +4.5
2012: 6 -- 17.2 -- -4.7
2013: 3 -- 19.0 -- +1.8
2014: 8 -- 16.4 -- -2.6
2015: 10 -- 22.6 -- +6.2
2016: 6
Because of Shayne Skov, the 2012 number is slightly deceptive. Skov missed the 2011 season, but returned in 2012 to lead the team in tackles. And the 2016 number of six top 15 tacklers lost doesn’t account for the return of Zach Hoffpauir, the seventh leading tackler on the 2014 team.
So you might view both those teams—2012's and this year’s—as suffering a net loss of five top 15 tacklers.
Without carrying this further, I’d add two things.
First, these numbers obviously hint that we might improve back to the mean of the last six seasons. We’ve allowed 19.1 points per game in that stretch.
And there’s another reason to think we could improve significantly. Last year’s defense included only two players who ranked in the top 22 for tackles on the team from two seasons earlier: Kevin Anderson (14th) and Ronnie Harris (17th); they accounted for 45 total tackles This year’s team begins the season with eight top 22 tacklers from the 2014 team: Hoffpauir (7th), Kalambayi (11th), Davis (15th), Palma (16th), Alexander (18th), Lloyd (19th), Phillips (20th), and Kaumatule (21st), who together accounted for 154 tackles that season.
My bet: We allow fewer than 20 points per game.
After the 2009 season, in which we allowed 26.5 points per game—the most in our last seven seasons—-we lost only five of the players who ranked in our top 15 for tackles. The next year’s defense, not surprisingly, improved: It allowed only 17.4 points per game.
Was there some pattern here in the seasons that followed? Some.
Top 15 tacklers lost Points allowed per game Change
2010: 5 -- 17.4 -- -9.1
2011: 9 -- 21.9 -- +4.5
2012: 6 -- 17.2 -- -4.7
2013: 3 -- 19.0 -- +1.8
2014: 8 -- 16.4 -- -2.6
2015: 10 -- 22.6 -- +6.2
2016: 6
Because of Shayne Skov, the 2012 number is slightly deceptive. Skov missed the 2011 season, but returned in 2012 to lead the team in tackles. And the 2016 number of six top 15 tacklers lost doesn’t account for the return of Zach Hoffpauir, the seventh leading tackler on the 2014 team.
So you might view both those teams—2012's and this year’s—as suffering a net loss of five top 15 tacklers.
Without carrying this further, I’d add two things.
First, these numbers obviously hint that we might improve back to the mean of the last six seasons. We’ve allowed 19.1 points per game in that stretch.
And there’s another reason to think we could improve significantly. Last year’s defense included only two players who ranked in the top 22 for tackles on the team from two seasons earlier: Kevin Anderson (14th) and Ronnie Harris (17th); they accounted for 45 total tackles This year’s team begins the season with eight top 22 tacklers from the 2014 team: Hoffpauir (7th), Kalambayi (11th), Davis (15th), Palma (16th), Alexander (18th), Lloyd (19th), Phillips (20th), and Kaumatule (21st), who together accounted for 154 tackles that season.
My bet: We allow fewer than 20 points per game.
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