How often do we make field goals of more than 48 yards?
In 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, our kickers didn’t make one--and missed six, one were only 1-3 from 47.
A 48+ field goal is a major event here. Williamson’s 51-yarder last year was our first 50-or-longer make since Whitaker’s 54-yarder in 2009.
Our odds of a field goal over 5o, not even one-in-ten, puts the average value of a 52-yard attempt at 0.3 points. If we punt instead and just bang it into the end zone, our opponents get the ball as their 20, rather than their 35, a 15 yard difference that values at about +1.1 net. If we pooch to the 10, it’s a net +1.7.
And if you factor in three other considerations in these cases--Do you have a good pooch kicker? Are your chances of winning the game good or better? Is your defense relatively superior to the other offense?--the calculus moves even more toward punt.
And just as OC's like to get their QB's confidence and rhythm up by starting with high percentage passes, coaches don't like to test rookie kickers with bombs among the first in-game attempts in their careers. That was in play on Saturday, too.
Most of all, I think we fans badly overestimate our kickers' odds of making even a 49 yarder, much less anything longer, perhaps because we watch on Sundays when the pros nail these often. Maybe the vividness of Whitaker and Williamson’s makes obscures our memories of all those misses?
In 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, our kickers didn’t make one--and missed six, one were only 1-3 from 47.
A 48+ field goal is a major event here. Williamson’s 51-yarder last year was our first 50-or-longer make since Whitaker’s 54-yarder in 2009.
Our odds of a field goal over 5o, not even one-in-ten, puts the average value of a 52-yard attempt at 0.3 points. If we punt instead and just bang it into the end zone, our opponents get the ball as their 20, rather than their 35, a 15 yard difference that values at about +1.1 net. If we pooch to the 10, it’s a net +1.7.
And if you factor in three other considerations in these cases--Do you have a good pooch kicker? Are your chances of winning the game good or better? Is your defense relatively superior to the other offense?--the calculus moves even more toward punt.
And just as OC's like to get their QB's confidence and rhythm up by starting with high percentage passes, coaches don't like to test rookie kickers with bombs among the first in-game attempts in their careers. That was in play on Saturday, too.
Most of all, I think we fans badly overestimate our kickers' odds of making even a 49 yarder, much less anything longer, perhaps because we watch on Sundays when the pros nail these often. Maybe the vividness of Whitaker and Williamson’s makes obscures our memories of all those misses?
