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The overwhelming case for Christian

hulk

All-American
Gold Member
Jun 20, 2001
5,622
5,466
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Minneapolis MN
I get more upset about the Heisman over time—and thought.

What started me thinking--but only started me--was kickoff returns. I agree that adding every kickoff yard into a player’s total yards, and then comparing his total ayrds to players who do not return kicks, is not fair. A merely average kickoff returner—a player who just easily could have been replaced by any of several others on his team—has no value to a team; finding an average guy is easy.

But stop there. Let’s do that: Let’s assess Christian's yards gained per kickoff return over replacement value: the average NCAA kickoff returner.

In 2015, he netted 21.09 yards per return.

And Christian?

28.94: an added 7.85 yards per return (which experts say is worth 0.56 points per return.)

Now take those bonus yards per return that Christian produces on his average return, and give it value: bonus yards per year, and the point value, using the standard formula that every 14 yards in a football game is worth one point:

7.85 surplus yards per return x 36 returns : 273 bonus yards, or 11 yards per game—or 0.79 points per game.

Now, let’s add those 273 bonus yards into Christian’s running, receiving, and passing yards:

363 touches: 2699 yards: 7.7 yards per play

Derrick Henry’s totals?

340 touches: 2083 yards: 6.1 yards per play

Christian nets almost 50 yards more per game, and over 1.5 yards more per play, every time he touches the ball.

But Henry scored more actual touchdowns. Well, he’s his team’s short yardage back; that's what they do. Was Derrick Henry uniquely good at it? Would he be hard to replace, and therefore valuable for his short yardage skills alone, Is he particularly valuable because, like Remound Wright but presumably unlike 205 pound Christian McCaffrey, Henry is lethal running on third and short?


Well, let’s look:

Conversions of third and 1-3 yards, 2015
Derrick Henry: 13-22, 59%
Remound Wright: 19-27, 70.4%
Christian McCaffrey: 12-16, 75%

Well, I’ll be darned. When defenses know Henry is coming, he’s pretty good. But he’s nowhere near Remound Wright good or Christian McCaffrey good. He’s only Derrick Henry good.

And that never should have been considered good enough to win the Heisman.
 
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