A year ago tomorrow, I shared Bill Connelly's SP+ observation that Stanford had an extraordinary amount of returning production for 2022. At that time, he calculated Stanford as having the #3 most returning production in the nation, most in a Power Five conference, and far and away the most in the Pac-12 (next closest was Arizona State at #32). As happens when a team has that much returning production, the natural pendulum swing for the next year is to have very little returning production. As all of us who follow Stanford football know, that pendulum swing hit with with force as Shaw departed and Taylor came on board. Now, Connelly/SP+ have put numbers out to contextualize it (including transfers in calculations given the changed landscape):
Connelly calculates that in 2023 Stanford returns a paltry 35 percent of its production, #129 in the country and dead last among Power Five teams. On offense we are #129 and on defense #128. TCU is the only Power Five offense with less returning production (33 percent to our 34 percent) and no Power Five defense returns less. Yikes.
Those of us setting expectations for 2023 need to account for this being one of the absolute least proven or experienced teams in the country. Moreover, oftentimes teams score low on this list because they were really good the previous year - Alabama has the second least returning production in Power Five football and I already mentioned TCU. Stanford is low not because we were good. We're the oddity of a team that was terrible despite being more experienced than anybody and now gets to be terrible while being less experienced than everybody. As we know, quite a rebuild task ahead for Taylor.
I keep saying it but I will view 2023 as a good year for Stanford football if the team is exactly as bad as it was in 2022. The climb is that steep.
By the way, SP+ has USC, Utah, and Washington as three of the teams most likely to improve in 2023 so, especially given where those teams already were, the Pac-12 could be quite good in 2023. One last hurrah before losing USC.
Connelly calculates that in 2023 Stanford returns a paltry 35 percent of its production, #129 in the country and dead last among Power Five teams. On offense we are #129 and on defense #128. TCU is the only Power Five offense with less returning production (33 percent to our 34 percent) and no Power Five defense returns less. Yikes.
Those of us setting expectations for 2023 need to account for this being one of the absolute least proven or experienced teams in the country. Moreover, oftentimes teams score low on this list because they were really good the previous year - Alabama has the second least returning production in Power Five football and I already mentioned TCU. Stanford is low not because we were good. We're the oddity of a team that was terrible despite being more experienced than anybody and now gets to be terrible while being less experienced than everybody. As we know, quite a rebuild task ahead for Taylor.
I keep saying it but I will view 2023 as a good year for Stanford football if the team is exactly as bad as it was in 2022. The climb is that steep.
By the way, SP+ has USC, Utah, and Washington as three of the teams most likely to improve in 2023 so, especially given where those teams already were, the Pac-12 could be quite good in 2023. One last hurrah before losing USC.
