Ok, new conference, might as well get to know it a bit. This post (and likely ones to follow) will try to get a sense of what we're getting into.
2023 Sagarin Rankings
10. Florida State
21. SMU
23. Clemson
27. Louisville
32. North Carolina
34. Duke
35. Miami
37. NC State
46. Cal
52. Virginia Tech
56. Georgia Tech
76. Syracuse
87. Pitt
90. Wake Forest
93. Virginia
98. Boston College
100. Stanford
2023 247 Talent Composite
5. Clemson
12. Miami
17. North Carolina
20. Florida State
28. Louisville
34. SMU
36. Georgia Tech
37. Stanford
38. NC State
39. Pitt
45. Cal
54. Boston College
59. Virginia Tech
66. Virginia
67. Duke
69. Syracuse
70. Wake Forest
2023 On3 Transfer Portal Rankings (out of 69)
2. Louisville
10. Florida State
13. Miami
14. Virginia Tech
18. Cal
30. Pitt
35. North Carolina
40. Duke
42. NC State
51. Georgia Tech
55. Virginia
56. Boston College
60. Wake Forest
62. Syracuse
65. Clemson
69. Stanford
SMU was not ranked because On3 only looks at Power Fives teams and SMU was not Power Five this season.
2024 Industry Recruiting Rankings
3. Florida State
9. Miami
17. Clemson
26. North Carolina
31. Stanford
35. NC State
37. Virginia Tech
40. Georgia Tech
41. Pitt
42. Duke
47. Wake Forest
49. Louisville
58. Syracuse
60. Cal
67. SMU
69. Virginia
118. Boston College
ACC Teams By 2021-2023 Median Sagarin Ranking
14. Clemson
16. Florida State
27. Louisville
32. Pitt
34. Wake Forest
37. NC State
39. Miami
44. Duke
50. SMU
50. North Carolina
65. Cal
76. Syracuse
79. Virginia Tech
84. Georgia Tech
88. Virginia
89. Stanford
98. Boston College
All-Time Top 25 Seasons
(Not including this season because I don't want to mess up my data before it's final but for what it's worth Florida State, Louisville, SMU, and NC State are currently AP top 25)
14. Clemson - 36
15. Florida State - 34
17. Miami - 33
25. Georgia Tech - 25
27. Pitt - 22
28. Syracuse - 21
30. Stanford - 20
30. Virginia Tech - 20
38. Duke - 17
38. North Carolina - 17
47. Boston College - 14
47. Cal - 14
47. NC State - 14
54. Louisville - 11
60. Virginia - 9
65. Wake Forest - 5
I did not rank SMU when I did that analysis because they weren't Power Five at the time, but historically they have 10 top 25 seasons.
21st Century Top 25 Seasons
(Not including this season because I don't want to mess up my data before it's final but for what it's worth Florida State, Louisville, SMU, and NC State are currently AP top 25)
6. Clemson - 16
8. Florida State - 14
14. Virginia Tech - 12
21. Miami - 9
24. Louisville - 8
24. Stanford - 8
36. Boston College - 5
36. Pitt - 5
44. Georgia Tech - 4
44. NC State - 4
52. Cal - 3
55. North Carolina - 2
55. Syracuse - 2
55. Virginia - 2
55. Wake Forest - 2
63. Duke - 1
If SMU finishes this current season in the top 25, as they currently are, it will be their first time doing that not only in the 21st century but since the mid-80s death penalty.
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My take on this landscape:
* Clemson and Florida State are powerhouses, albeit trending in opposite directions. Clemson has an interesting season ahead trying to convince the world they're not fading while Florida State has a great coach and team that will be super pissed off to avenge the playoff snub.
* Louisville is a rising power that appears to be one of the big winners nationally of the transfer portal/NIL environment. Plus they have a good coach. They are making a play to pass Clemson for the #2 program in the conference. In a 12 team playoff environment, there may be nothing more important in college football than being #2 in a power conference. But Clemson has historical advantages/staying power that should not be dismissed.
* SMU is looking like the upstart new kid on the block and it will put a lot of wind in their sails to get into a power conference. Watch out for them.
* Kind of quietly NC State has become a perennial 8-9 win team. Really solid program right now. Miami and North Carolina have been more underachieving but have enough going for them they should be viewed in a similar echelon.
* Pitt and Wake Forest have been similarly solid teams in recent years but really took one in the teeth in 2023. It will be interesting to see whether such established coaches bounce back or if they don't have the juice anymore and/or the headwinds of the transfer portal/NIL environment prove too much to overcome.
* The other half of the conference is pretty much fodder. Duke had experienced relevance with Elko but now he's gone and the candidates who would have been exciting hires got scooped up by Houston and Indiana. I think it's pretty much Jamey Chadwell or bust for Duke and I'm betting on bust. Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Stanford are rebuilding and in such a situation it's always possible a coach really finds a groove and changes the trajectory of the program but I probably wouldn't bet on more than one of those ascending to the level of true relevance in the ACC in the next few years. Cal and Boston College aren't rebuilding, as of yet, but are about as milquetoast mediocre irrelevant as it gets.
Looking at this landscape, our 2024 schedule includes a couple powers (Clemson and Louisville), a couple solid contenders (SMU and NC State), and a bunch of mediocrity (Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Cal), some in rebuilds and some not. In the near term we should hope to win a few games against this mediocrity but in the not very distant future we should have every expectation of being better than a lot of teams in this league. Being top half of this league isn't hard at all and I think it's reasonable to hope things go well enough to occasionally compete for a spot in the 12 team playoff. That would take good coaching, recruiting, and NIL/transfer support, but we are talking about a league where Louisville and SMU are on the verge of being regular playoff contenders. Not scary.
2023 Sagarin Rankings
10. Florida State
21. SMU
23. Clemson
27. Louisville
32. North Carolina
34. Duke
35. Miami
37. NC State
46. Cal
52. Virginia Tech
56. Georgia Tech
76. Syracuse
87. Pitt
90. Wake Forest
93. Virginia
98. Boston College
100. Stanford
2023 247 Talent Composite
5. Clemson
12. Miami
17. North Carolina
20. Florida State
28. Louisville
34. SMU
36. Georgia Tech
37. Stanford
38. NC State
39. Pitt
45. Cal
54. Boston College
59. Virginia Tech
66. Virginia
67. Duke
69. Syracuse
70. Wake Forest
2023 On3 Transfer Portal Rankings (out of 69)
2. Louisville
10. Florida State
13. Miami
14. Virginia Tech
18. Cal
30. Pitt
35. North Carolina
40. Duke
42. NC State
51. Georgia Tech
55. Virginia
56. Boston College
60. Wake Forest
62. Syracuse
65. Clemson
69. Stanford
SMU was not ranked because On3 only looks at Power Fives teams and SMU was not Power Five this season.
2024 Industry Recruiting Rankings
3. Florida State
9. Miami
17. Clemson
26. North Carolina
31. Stanford
35. NC State
37. Virginia Tech
40. Georgia Tech
41. Pitt
42. Duke
47. Wake Forest
49. Louisville
58. Syracuse
60. Cal
67. SMU
69. Virginia
118. Boston College
ACC Teams By 2021-2023 Median Sagarin Ranking
14. Clemson
16. Florida State
27. Louisville
32. Pitt
34. Wake Forest
37. NC State
39. Miami
44. Duke
50. SMU
50. North Carolina
65. Cal
76. Syracuse
79. Virginia Tech
84. Georgia Tech
88. Virginia
89. Stanford
98. Boston College
All-Time Top 25 Seasons
(Not including this season because I don't want to mess up my data before it's final but for what it's worth Florida State, Louisville, SMU, and NC State are currently AP top 25)
14. Clemson - 36
15. Florida State - 34
17. Miami - 33
25. Georgia Tech - 25
27. Pitt - 22
28. Syracuse - 21
30. Stanford - 20
30. Virginia Tech - 20
38. Duke - 17
38. North Carolina - 17
47. Boston College - 14
47. Cal - 14
47. NC State - 14
54. Louisville - 11
60. Virginia - 9
65. Wake Forest - 5
I did not rank SMU when I did that analysis because they weren't Power Five at the time, but historically they have 10 top 25 seasons.
21st Century Top 25 Seasons
(Not including this season because I don't want to mess up my data before it's final but for what it's worth Florida State, Louisville, SMU, and NC State are currently AP top 25)
6. Clemson - 16
8. Florida State - 14
14. Virginia Tech - 12
21. Miami - 9
24. Louisville - 8
24. Stanford - 8
36. Boston College - 5
36. Pitt - 5
44. Georgia Tech - 4
44. NC State - 4
52. Cal - 3
55. North Carolina - 2
55. Syracuse - 2
55. Virginia - 2
55. Wake Forest - 2
63. Duke - 1
If SMU finishes this current season in the top 25, as they currently are, it will be their first time doing that not only in the 21st century but since the mid-80s death penalty.
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My take on this landscape:
* Clemson and Florida State are powerhouses, albeit trending in opposite directions. Clemson has an interesting season ahead trying to convince the world they're not fading while Florida State has a great coach and team that will be super pissed off to avenge the playoff snub.
* Louisville is a rising power that appears to be one of the big winners nationally of the transfer portal/NIL environment. Plus they have a good coach. They are making a play to pass Clemson for the #2 program in the conference. In a 12 team playoff environment, there may be nothing more important in college football than being #2 in a power conference. But Clemson has historical advantages/staying power that should not be dismissed.
* SMU is looking like the upstart new kid on the block and it will put a lot of wind in their sails to get into a power conference. Watch out for them.
* Kind of quietly NC State has become a perennial 8-9 win team. Really solid program right now. Miami and North Carolina have been more underachieving but have enough going for them they should be viewed in a similar echelon.
* Pitt and Wake Forest have been similarly solid teams in recent years but really took one in the teeth in 2023. It will be interesting to see whether such established coaches bounce back or if they don't have the juice anymore and/or the headwinds of the transfer portal/NIL environment prove too much to overcome.
* The other half of the conference is pretty much fodder. Duke had experienced relevance with Elko but now he's gone and the candidates who would have been exciting hires got scooped up by Houston and Indiana. I think it's pretty much Jamey Chadwell or bust for Duke and I'm betting on bust. Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Stanford are rebuilding and in such a situation it's always possible a coach really finds a groove and changes the trajectory of the program but I probably wouldn't bet on more than one of those ascending to the level of true relevance in the ACC in the next few years. Cal and Boston College aren't rebuilding, as of yet, but are about as milquetoast mediocre irrelevant as it gets.
Looking at this landscape, our 2024 schedule includes a couple powers (Clemson and Louisville), a couple solid contenders (SMU and NC State), and a bunch of mediocrity (Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Cal), some in rebuilds and some not. In the near term we should hope to win a few games against this mediocrity but in the not very distant future we should have every expectation of being better than a lot of teams in this league. Being top half of this league isn't hard at all and I think it's reasonable to hope things go well enough to occasionally compete for a spot in the 12 team playoff. That would take good coaching, recruiting, and NIL/transfer support, but we are talking about a league where Louisville and SMU are on the verge of being regular playoff contenders. Not scary.
