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Sunday morning thoughts - USC (long)

msqueri

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Jan 5, 2006
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1. Smiling even wider than last week. This was the game I really had circled all offseason. Not that I think USC is tougher than Washington or Notre Dame, but to the extent that our goals run through the Pac-12 championship this game loomed as pivotal. Washington doesn't play USC so this was the game that really stood between us and being in a position to really breath down Washington's neck. The Huskies are now staring down a Pac-12 slate without two of their best players and knowing that a very talented, well-coached Stanford team is standing atop the North standings having already gotten by the prohibitive favorite to win the South. Put more concisely: I think this win gives us license to dream big for the season.

2. I think it is a bit perilous to draw sweeping conclusions about the team from the first two games because it's still a tiny sample size. That said, there are two provisional takes I have coming out of the first two games that are encouraging to me. First, to the extent that the team is different than what we thought we had it appears to be a case of the offense being less great (because less consistent/unstoppable) than expected and the defense being better (because there is no glaring weakness as feared) than expected. If so, I would take that trade in a heartbeat because it means a more balanced team and because we know the ceiling on the offense is much higher than demonstrated. Second, to the extent that Shaw's coaching style/NFL mentality makes us better as the season goes on, it is enormous to get through these first two weeks without faltering, especially with this one coming against one of the best teams in the conference. Getting through the first two two weeks unscathed is something we didn't do three of the last four years. That we did it by beating the spread both times should make us feel pretty good about where the team is.

3. Nothing is more fun to me than partying in the backfield. And it's core to our identity over the Harbaugh/Shaw era and a foundational element of whether the defense can be an asset rather than a liability. So far so good on that front. @CascadeSierra had an excellent post providing perspective about going 2-0 against teams we went 0-3 against last season and doing so comfortably. I'd add that in those three games last year Stanford's defense had 12 tackles for loss whereas in the two games this year the defense has had 13.5 tackles for loss. (For those not wanting to do math on a Sunday morning, that's 4 per game vs. 6.75 per game) Over the offseason I was not buying what @hulk and @Treez Nuts were selling about the push up front potentially being better off without Harrison Phillips simply for role/position fit reasons, despite Phillips' greatness. Two weeks into the season the idea that we could have a better front seven push than last year doesn't seem outlandish, it seems to be where the evidence is (again, provisionally) pointing.

4. My biggest concern for Stanford this season is run defense. I think we've seen some moments in each of the first two games that show why, but by far the bigger story is that we've found a way to tighten up and neutralize it as a liability so far. Others have made smart observations about looking a lot tighter in the base defense than nickel. It's not a familiar situation for Stanford to be more comfortable with an extra DL on the field versus an extra DB but with the way our corners cover and the much greater stoutness for the front seven when they can get an extra body, it seems to be what our personnel is pointing to. And kudos to the individual players responsible for that tightening up. I've been critical at times of Okereke and Barton in the run but I feel like last night was a statement that our guys are capable of gap integrity, wrapping up, and minimizing damage against one of the best offensive line/RB situations we will face this year. [USC's banged-up OL may or may not have been a factor, but either way we made it through one of the three daunting lines our young DL have to battle with, with Oregon and Notre Dame still to come.]

5. In general when it comes to the defense I thought this was an outstanding team effort. Anderson's gameplan, Reynolds continuing to get our young DL to make impact against much more experienced guys lining up across them, and the players getting push, flying to the ball, locking down dynamic receivers out wide. Really, a fantastic team effort. Can point to 15 defensive players who made significant contributions, with hardly a weak link in the bunch.

6. I don't get into the criticisms of playcalling or scheme on offense except in the big picture sense of saying the results don't seem to add up to the sum of the parts. I think that's clearly the case. I also have sympathy for those irritated at talk of execution when the coaches are the well-paid grown men who occupy the seats where the buck stops. Something needs to click better for us to reach our full potential. Still, Monday Morning Quarterbacking is a term for a reason. I'm convinced there would be criticism of Xs and Os under almost any circumstance. But yeah, we should throw on first down more often than we do (I'd say somewhere around a third of the time but I'm sure many fans would still lament the tendency to run on first down).

7. I really like KJ Costello. Like, really like him. He is showing poise, making great throws, and converting big third downs when the run game puts him in tough down and distance situations. That Shaw has repeatedly harped on how high Costello's ceiling is (and implicitly how much Costello is doing wrong/not doing) is exciting to me. I think this is a redshirt sophomore two games into his first full season as the starter who is already one of the top 20-30 QBs in the country (if I'm going to downgrade a bit from what the stats show in deference to his amazing supporting cast, but that may be harsh as a lot of statistically good QBs have - shocker - good receivers).

8. I am not convinced that there is something in the run game waiting to be unlocked. Substantially better pass protection than run blocking was the case last year and there is no reason to necessarily assume that would change this year, especially since Fanaika is giving way to more playing time for Hamilton, a tradeoff @fborg81 has said is better for the passing game than the running game. Beyond the line, feast or famine in the run game was the case last year too. Love had scads of ineffectual runs last year too, often of the backward pitch and/or running into a crowd in the middle of the line variety. Then he'd break a big one every fourth or fifth carry. What we saw last night was fairly typical Love. I attribute this to a combination of the line's relative strengths and weaknesses, the personality of our offense, and Love himself. I love watching Love and think he is a phenomenal man, representative of the school, and teammate. It's been cool to see him grow as a pass blocker. But I am starting to realize I don't enjoy watching him as much as McCaffrey or Gerhart. I think he may have fewer pitches in his repertoire. Even if that's not the case, the feast or famine nature of the run game seems clear.

9. I love Kaden Smith and JJ Arcega-Whiteside and am glad there's no reason I have to pick a favorite! Am going to enjoy these guys dominate college football as long as they're here and then start in the NFL for years to come. And I used to be very critical of Irwin not having a beast mode and, on paper, under-performing his considerable hype coming out of high school. Even if he never makes an all-conference team, which I think is the most likely outcome, he is, as fborg says, a winning player. He makes us better and does so many things to make this a good team. He is the offensive Peter Kalambayi. And I loved Kalambayi so out of fairness I now proclaim my love for Irwin.

10. I don't even know where to start in shouting out individual defensive players, which is why I tried the big picture take in the 5th paragraph. There are 15 guys I'm super proud of. Since Barton and Edwards are two I've thrown modest and heavy shade at respectively I'll single them out as I felt they played very well. More in the I-told-you-so category are Alfieri, the Beast Named Frank (Buncom), and Swann. That's a present, short-term future, and medium-term future of Pac-12 superstars. Adebo may already be a superstar but I don't get to claim any special prescience there, we've been hearing buzz about him before any of us could reach a conclusion based on actual game performance. That has to be on the short list of best first two games of a freshman year by a Stanford defender.

11. Special teams doesn't feel right to me right now. All phases could use some improvement to meet our admittedly very high standard there.

12. Game balls: Kaden Smith, Joey Alfieri, Lance Anderson
 
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