After looking at the current rankings, examining what the CFP committee tends to value the most and Stanford's remaining schedule, it doesn't look too far fetched for us to end up in the playoff IF we win out.
First, when you look at the rankings, there are 8 teams ahead of us. In terms of how the committee values conference champions, however, it's more like 4 teams being ahead of us:
1. A 1-loss Oklahoma
2. A 1-loss SEC Champ (possibly a 2-loss Bama)
3. A 1-loss B1G Champ from the B1G East, a 2-loss B1G Champ (Michigan), an undefeated B1G Champ (Iowa)
4. An undefeated ACC Champ
In my opinion if we win out and just ONE of the hypothetical teams above do not exist, we will likely be in the playoff. ND is not included, of course, because my win-out scenario includes Stanford beating ND and knocking them out of contention.
Here's how I came down to those four hypothetical teams:
1. A 1-loss Oklahoma
If Stanford wins out, the only Big 12 team that would finish ahead of them in the rankings is a 1-loss Oklahoma. The current rankings are an example of the relative lack of respect that the committee has for the schedules of Oklahoma State and Baylor in comparison to Stanford's. Stanford is ranked in between them despite having two losses already. In comparison, both the Big 12 and the Pac 12 play a 9-game conference schedule, so that's a wash. The difference is in the OOC Schedules. Two out of Stanford's three OOC games will have been against Power 5 Competition (Northwestern and Notre Dame). That means 11/12 of Stanford's regular season games will have been against Power 5 competition - add in a conference championship and that's 12/13. They would be the only team in contention with that distinction, and I don't think that fact is lost on the committee.
In comparison, Baylor would have played 9/12, as NONE of their OOC games were against Power 5 competition (SMU, Lamar and Rice). The same goes for Oklahoma State (Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, UTSA). Neither would have played a conference championship game. Putting either of those 1-loss teams ahead of a 2-loss Stanford given the scheduling differences would be in direct conflict with what the committee has done in the past and with some of their stated principles.
Oklahoma will get the benefit of the doubt, given that they did go and play Tennessee on the road and they seem to have consistently passed the eye test. A Stanford/1-loss Oklahoma decision would probably be closer that most expect, but I believe Oklahoma would have the edge there.
2. A 1-loss SEC Champ (possibly a 2-loss Bama)
If Alabama or Florida (hahaha!) win out, they will finish ahead of an 11-2 Stanford team. If Alabama loses to Auburn and then wins the SEC Championship, they could still get in the playoff and *might* finish ahead of an 11-2 Stanford team but it would be close. The edge there could go to Stanford, but some of that depends on how Oregon and Northwestern finish out their seasons.
3. A 1-loss B1G Champ from the B1G East, a 2-loss B1G Champ (Michigan), an undefeated B1G Champ (Iowa)
The B1G champ would be the toughest scenario for Stanford to overcome. They would not finish ahead of a 1-loss B1G from the Eastern division (Michigan State or Ohio State) or an undefeated Iowa. What would be interesting is if Iowa were to lose at Nebraska today and then go on to win the B1G. Their schedule is not on the level of Stanford's, but out of four OOC games, they played two Power 5 teams (Iowa State and Pitt). They also blew out Northwestern, who was one of Stanford's losses. This could come down to the manner in which Stanford wins its last two, and how Iowa, in this hypothetical situation, loses to Nebraska. (Edit: A 2-loss Michigan might be difficult to overcome, especially if they end up ending the season with wins over 2 top 10 teams. So that one will depend on whether or not Iowa wins at Nebraska today.)
4. An undefeated ACC Champ
Only an undefeated ACC Champ finishes ahead of an 11-2 Stanford team. Their conference overall is seen as weaker - outside of their top-3 teams (Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State) NONE of the other ACC teams have even sniffed the CFP Rankings. Clemson did schedule 2/4 Power 5 OOC opponents (Notre Dame and South Carolina), but South Carolina is an awful team from what might be the weakest Power 5 division. A very late loss plus a weak conference puts Stanford ahead of a 1-loss Clemson. North Carolina could win the conference with 1-loss, but there's no way that they edge out an 11-2 Stanford team because they had 2 FCS teams on their schedule. To their credit, their other two conference games were against Power 5 (Illinois and South Carolina). But they lost to South Carolina who stinks.
The bottom line here is that Stanford has a pretty good chance of making the playoff if they win out. The easiest route is just to have Oklahoma State knock of Oklahoma. TCU knocking off Baylor would be good too, but I don't think it's necessary. The likelihood of all of the four scenarios going against Stanford is less than 50%. Of course, all of this is moot if Stanford loses again.
First, when you look at the rankings, there are 8 teams ahead of us. In terms of how the committee values conference champions, however, it's more like 4 teams being ahead of us:
1. A 1-loss Oklahoma
2. A 1-loss SEC Champ (possibly a 2-loss Bama)
3. A 1-loss B1G Champ from the B1G East, a 2-loss B1G Champ (Michigan), an undefeated B1G Champ (Iowa)
4. An undefeated ACC Champ
In my opinion if we win out and just ONE of the hypothetical teams above do not exist, we will likely be in the playoff. ND is not included, of course, because my win-out scenario includes Stanford beating ND and knocking them out of contention.
Here's how I came down to those four hypothetical teams:
1. A 1-loss Oklahoma
If Stanford wins out, the only Big 12 team that would finish ahead of them in the rankings is a 1-loss Oklahoma. The current rankings are an example of the relative lack of respect that the committee has for the schedules of Oklahoma State and Baylor in comparison to Stanford's. Stanford is ranked in between them despite having two losses already. In comparison, both the Big 12 and the Pac 12 play a 9-game conference schedule, so that's a wash. The difference is in the OOC Schedules. Two out of Stanford's three OOC games will have been against Power 5 Competition (Northwestern and Notre Dame). That means 11/12 of Stanford's regular season games will have been against Power 5 competition - add in a conference championship and that's 12/13. They would be the only team in contention with that distinction, and I don't think that fact is lost on the committee.
In comparison, Baylor would have played 9/12, as NONE of their OOC games were against Power 5 competition (SMU, Lamar and Rice). The same goes for Oklahoma State (Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, UTSA). Neither would have played a conference championship game. Putting either of those 1-loss teams ahead of a 2-loss Stanford given the scheduling differences would be in direct conflict with what the committee has done in the past and with some of their stated principles.
Oklahoma will get the benefit of the doubt, given that they did go and play Tennessee on the road and they seem to have consistently passed the eye test. A Stanford/1-loss Oklahoma decision would probably be closer that most expect, but I believe Oklahoma would have the edge there.
2. A 1-loss SEC Champ (possibly a 2-loss Bama)
If Alabama or Florida (hahaha!) win out, they will finish ahead of an 11-2 Stanford team. If Alabama loses to Auburn and then wins the SEC Championship, they could still get in the playoff and *might* finish ahead of an 11-2 Stanford team but it would be close. The edge there could go to Stanford, but some of that depends on how Oregon and Northwestern finish out their seasons.
3. A 1-loss B1G Champ from the B1G East, a 2-loss B1G Champ (Michigan), an undefeated B1G Champ (Iowa)
The B1G champ would be the toughest scenario for Stanford to overcome. They would not finish ahead of a 1-loss B1G from the Eastern division (Michigan State or Ohio State) or an undefeated Iowa. What would be interesting is if Iowa were to lose at Nebraska today and then go on to win the B1G. Their schedule is not on the level of Stanford's, but out of four OOC games, they played two Power 5 teams (Iowa State and Pitt). They also blew out Northwestern, who was one of Stanford's losses. This could come down to the manner in which Stanford wins its last two, and how Iowa, in this hypothetical situation, loses to Nebraska. (Edit: A 2-loss Michigan might be difficult to overcome, especially if they end up ending the season with wins over 2 top 10 teams. So that one will depend on whether or not Iowa wins at Nebraska today.)
4. An undefeated ACC Champ
Only an undefeated ACC Champ finishes ahead of an 11-2 Stanford team. Their conference overall is seen as weaker - outside of their top-3 teams (Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State) NONE of the other ACC teams have even sniffed the CFP Rankings. Clemson did schedule 2/4 Power 5 OOC opponents (Notre Dame and South Carolina), but South Carolina is an awful team from what might be the weakest Power 5 division. A very late loss plus a weak conference puts Stanford ahead of a 1-loss Clemson. North Carolina could win the conference with 1-loss, but there's no way that they edge out an 11-2 Stanford team because they had 2 FCS teams on their schedule. To their credit, their other two conference games were against Power 5 (Illinois and South Carolina). But they lost to South Carolina who stinks.
The bottom line here is that Stanford has a pretty good chance of making the playoff if they win out. The easiest route is just to have Oklahoma State knock of Oklahoma. TCU knocking off Baylor would be good too, but I don't think it's necessary. The likelihood of all of the four scenarios going against Stanford is less than 50%. Of course, all of this is moot if Stanford loses again.
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