I watched Stanford at Oregon in 2008 and I have thoughts. Feel free to watch the full game as well.
First, a couple quick thoughts about the game:
What does that have to do with 2022? Let's assume that Shaw isn't the head coach next season. (This thread isn't meant to be No. 3,215 about whether it will actually happen so just carry on in a future timeline when he and Stanford have parted ways.) Let's also assume the worst result for this season occurs on the field: we lose to Oregon State, the team implodes, and we finish maybe 2-10.
Of course, there are several reasons that 2006 was still much worse, but the need for a complete overhaul at every level of the program will be similar in terms of the thoroughness required.
It all starts with one of the biggest "well, duhs" I've ever written: will Stanford hire the right head coach? We won't know for sure until a year or two afterward (unless he's amazing or terrible), but one of the major differences from 2006 is that we're a much more appealing destination now.
Unless the administration signals some form of disarmament, any hopeful applicant will know that Stanford can still be successful in the New World. Contrary to the "we've got it so hard" narrative, Stanford doesn't need to go anywhere close to what everyone else is doing with NIL to build a good program.
I think Harbaugh was one of a very small pool of guys who could have led such a rapid resurgence in 2007 and it's long odds we strike gold like that twice. I don't think we need a Harbaugh-level guy in all respects, though. I believe the most critical thing that must be the same as in 2006 is the quality of the staff he put together. It should go without saying but I will anyway: the 2006-2008 transformation was a marvelous group effort.
One thing that I expect to be the same is that Stanford will have more players of good quality on the 2023 team than almost every other program would have after a 2-10 season and coaching change. Why? It's Stanford, stupid. Just as we had no business having Richard Sherman, Alex Fletcher, Erik Lorig, Ekom Udofia, Pannel Egboh, Toby Gerhart, Sione Fua, etc. on the squads that changed the trajectory of the program. I understand the freedom and willingness to transfer is completely different now, but I think we can count on a number of guys waiting to see who is brought in.
Let me end by saying that pointing to one of the greatest program revivals in recent history as a blueprint for what to do in 2023 is obviously a stretch. There's a reason it doesn't happen often and why the first HC brought in to fix things often gets fired four seasons later. However, it's a thought that formed while watching those two games from 2008 and it seemed like an optimistic post to write!
First, a couple quick thoughts about the game:
- As discussed in the thread about the Oregon State game, we probably win at least eight games if Luck started. The passing offense was ... limited that season. Pritchard's shortcomings had a dramatic effect on what the offense could do and yet the core of the new culture and the strengths that would bloom in 2009 were visible.
- Kimble nearly had the crown jewel game of his career but instead it ended in heartbreak. Damn.
- Turnovers. So many turnovers by Oregon. The rain helped, some good luck helped, and playing hard on defense is also mixed in there.
- The fake field goal for a touchdown was gorgeous. No. 29 of Oregon helped by becoming a statue but the execution was superb.
- Delano Howell = stud. He should be in the discussion for one of the most important recruits of the decade, in my opinion. He caused the first Oregon fumble that put Stanford in position to finish the first half comeback from 17-3 to 17-17. He got clobbered on a reception that converted a third down and had a couple other good plays on offense. Then he went on to become the type of safety that makes the entire defense better.
- We should have let Oregon run the kickoff back for a TD after we went up by one. The defense played well throughout the game but it truly felt inevitable that Oregon was going to score. So frigging close.
What does that have to do with 2022? Let's assume that Shaw isn't the head coach next season. (This thread isn't meant to be No. 3,215 about whether it will actually happen so just carry on in a future timeline when he and Stanford have parted ways.) Let's also assume the worst result for this season occurs on the field: we lose to Oregon State, the team implodes, and we finish maybe 2-10.
Of course, there are several reasons that 2006 was still much worse, but the need for a complete overhaul at every level of the program will be similar in terms of the thoroughness required.
It all starts with one of the biggest "well, duhs" I've ever written: will Stanford hire the right head coach? We won't know for sure until a year or two afterward (unless he's amazing or terrible), but one of the major differences from 2006 is that we're a much more appealing destination now.
Unless the administration signals some form of disarmament, any hopeful applicant will know that Stanford can still be successful in the New World. Contrary to the "we've got it so hard" narrative, Stanford doesn't need to go anywhere close to what everyone else is doing with NIL to build a good program.
I think Harbaugh was one of a very small pool of guys who could have led such a rapid resurgence in 2007 and it's long odds we strike gold like that twice. I don't think we need a Harbaugh-level guy in all respects, though. I believe the most critical thing that must be the same as in 2006 is the quality of the staff he put together. It should go without saying but I will anyway: the 2006-2008 transformation was a marvelous group effort.
One thing that I expect to be the same is that Stanford will have more players of good quality on the 2023 team than almost every other program would have after a 2-10 season and coaching change. Why? It's Stanford, stupid. Just as we had no business having Richard Sherman, Alex Fletcher, Erik Lorig, Ekom Udofia, Pannel Egboh, Toby Gerhart, Sione Fua, etc. on the squads that changed the trajectory of the program. I understand the freedom and willingness to transfer is completely different now, but I think we can count on a number of guys waiting to see who is brought in.
Let me end by saying that pointing to one of the greatest program revivals in recent history as a blueprint for what to do in 2023 is obviously a stretch. There's a reason it doesn't happen often and why the first HC brought in to fix things often gets fired four seasons later. However, it's a thought that formed while watching those two games from 2008 and it seemed like an optimistic post to write!
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