From this board and offline conversations I've had in recent days I think one of the hot topics surrounding Stanford football is just what kind of coach is Shaw/what kind of level of success has Stanford settled into. As I think I've made clear, I think there is a strong argument for stagnation in several areas and getting back to our heyday looks daunting, but I also chafe at descriptions of Shaw that suggest he's not a good coach. I thought it might be interesting to look at his results only from 2016-2018, the period that might be described as the stagnant years. This sample makes sense to me in the context of assessing the aforementioned debate because it dispenses with the arguments about Shaw's inheritance from Harbaugh and meets the Shaw-skeptic argument on its home field, namely the notion that the program has stalled and recent trends will prove more predictive going forward than Shaw's overall track record. I do think this sample selection errs on the side of the Shaw skeptics over the Shawpologists because the 2015 season is an extremely positive, relevant data point in Shaw's favor, but insofar as my goal here is to get a sense of what level we've settled at if indeed we've reached stagnation I think it makes sense to use the less flattering sample. That's especially true if you want to give due consideration to the argument that things are moving in the wrong direction and we haven't hit bottom.
There are of course tons of ways to dissect the 2016-2018 timeframe, but in the interest of contextualizing what we mean by great/good/mediocre/poor/awful coaches I think it's useful to get some data out there on other program win levels. To that end, Power Five (plus Notre Dame and BYU) records over the last three years:
1. Alabama (Nick Saban): 41-2 (.953)
2. Clemson (Dabo Swinney): 40-3 (.930)
3. Ohio State (Urban Meyer): 36-5 (.878) * Meyer just retired (didn't bother to strip out suspended games)
4. Oklahoma (Bob Stoops/Lincoln Riley): 35-6 (.854)
5. Washington (Chris Petersen): 32-9 (.780)
5. Wisconsin (Paul Chryst): 32-9 (.780)
7. Penn State (James Franklin): 31-9 (.775)
8. Georgia (Kirby Smart): 32-10 (.762)
9. LSU (Ed Orgeron): 25-9 (.735) * excluding the four games Les Miles coached in 2016
10. Michigan (Jim Harbaugh): 28-11 (.718)
10. Washington State (Mike Leach): 28-11 (.718)
12. Stanford (David Shaw): 28-12 (.700)
13. Oklahoma State (Mike Gundy): 27-12 (.692)
14. Notre Dame (Brian Kelly): 26-12 (.684)
15. USC (Clay Helton): 26-13 (.667)
15. Miami (Mark Richt): 26-13 (.667) * Richt just retired
17. West Virginia (Dana Holgorsen): 25-13 (.658) * Holgorsen just gave up on Power Five football
18. Auburn (Gus Malzahn): 26-14 (.650)
18. Northwestern (Pat Fitzgerald): 26-14 (.650)
20. Iowa (Kirk Ferentz): 25-14 (.641)
20. NC State (Dave Doeren): 25-14 (.641)
22. Virginia Tech (Justin Fuente): 25-15 (.625)
22. Utah (Kyle Whittingham): 25-15 (.625)
24. Florida (Jim McElwain/Randy Shannon/Dan Mullen): 23-14 (.622)
25. Kentucky (Mark Stoops): 24-15 (.615)
25. Texas A&M (Kevin Sumlin/Jimbo Fisher): 24-15 (.615)
27. TCU (Gary Patterson): 24-16 (.600)
28. Mississippi State (Dan Mullen/Joe Moorhead): 23-16 (.590)
29. Kansas State (Bill Snyder): 22-16 (.579) * Snyder just retired
30. Georgia Tech (Paul Johnson): 21-16 (.568) * Johnson just retired
31. South Carolina (Will Muschamp): 22-17 (.564)
31. Texas (Charlie Strong/Tom Herman): 22-17 (.564)
31. Wake Forest (Dave Clawson): 22-17 (.564)
34. Florida State (Jimbo Fisher/Willie Taggart): 20-16 (.556)
35. Boston College (Steve Addazio): 21-17 (.553)
35. Minnesota (Tracy Claeys/PJ Fleck): 21-17 (.553)
37. Louisville (Bobby Petrino): 19-17 (.528) * Petrino fired this fall
38. Michigan State (Mark Dantonio): 20-18 (.526)
38. Colorado (Mike MacIntyre): 20-18 (.526) * MacIntyre fired this fall
38. Oregon (Mark Helfrich/Willie Taggart/Mario Cristobal): 20-18 (.526)
41. Pitt (Pat Narduzzi): 20-19 (.513)
41. BYU (Kalani Sitake): 20-19 (.513)
43. Duke (David Cutcliffe): 19-19 (.500)
43. Iowa State (Matt Campbell): 19-19 (.500)
43, Arizona State (Todd Graham/Herm Edwards): 19-19 (.500)
43. Missouri (Barry Odom): 19-19 (.500)
47. Syracuse (Dino Babers): 18-19 (.486)
47. Tennessee (Butch Jones/Jeremy Pruitt): 18-19 (.486)
49. Nebraska (Mike Riley/Scott Frost): 17-20 (.459)
49. Cal (Sonny Dykes/Justin Wilcox): 17-20 (.459)
51. Vanderbilt (Derek Mason): 17-21 (.447)
52. Ole Miss (Hugh Freeze/Matt Luke): 16-20 (.444)
53. Texas Tech (Kliff Kingsbury): 16-21 (.432) * Kingsbury fired this fall
53. Indiana (Kevin Wilson/Tom Allen): 16-21 (.432)
55. Virginia (Bronco Mendenhall): 16-22 (.421)
55. Purdue (Darrell Hazell/Gerad Parker/Jeff Brohm): 16-22 (.421)
57. Arizona (Rich Rodriguez/Kevin Sumlin): 15-22 (.405)
57. Maryland (DJ Durkin/Matt Canada): 15-22 (.405) * Durkin fired this fall
59. Baylor (Jim Grobe/Matt Ruhle): 15-23 (.395)
60. North Carolina (Larry Fedora): 13-23 (.361) * Fedora fired this fall
61. Arkansas (Bret Bielema/Chad Morris): 13-24 (.351)
61. UCLA (Jim Mora/Chip Kelly): 13-24 (.351)
63. Illinois (Lovie Smith): 9-27 (.250)
64. Rutgers (Chris Ash): 7-29 (.194)
64. Oregon State (Gary Andersen/Cory Hall/Jonathan Smith): 7-29 (.194)
66. Kansas (David Beaty): 6-30 (.167) * Beaty fired this fall
Jimbo Fisher across his stints at Florida State and Texas A&M is 24-13. Dan Mullen across his stints at Mississippi State and Florida is 24-14. Kevin Sumlin across his stints at Texas A&M and Arizona is 20-17.
Lincoln Riley, Tom Herman, Willie Taggart, Matt Luke, PJ Fleck, Tom Allen, Jeff Brohm, Justin Wilcox, and Matt Ruhle only have two Power Five head coaching seasons (DJ Durkin too though it's less clear if he'll ever be back).
I post this mainly to get data out there in support of our debates. I realize that each coach exists in a different context and this is not meant to be a ranking of these coaches per se (Bronco Mendenhall, for instance, is low on the list but the trajectory he has engineered is extremely impressive). Even still, I firmly believe that results matter. The above is closer than not to what a ranking of these coaches would look like.
Before I say much more I'll let folks draw their own conclusions but I do think it's important for folks to see that Shaw's stagnation years have been on par with the Harbaugh/Leach/Gundy echelon. Something "average" or "mediocre" is more like Muschamp/Clawson/Addazio. Anyway, I have much more to say but would rather push post and see what folks have to say.
P.S. It should go without saying when I make posts like this: there very well maybe typos/math errors and I hope you'll forgive me if so!
There are of course tons of ways to dissect the 2016-2018 timeframe, but in the interest of contextualizing what we mean by great/good/mediocre/poor/awful coaches I think it's useful to get some data out there on other program win levels. To that end, Power Five (plus Notre Dame and BYU) records over the last three years:
1. Alabama (Nick Saban): 41-2 (.953)
2. Clemson (Dabo Swinney): 40-3 (.930)
3. Ohio State (Urban Meyer): 36-5 (.878) * Meyer just retired (didn't bother to strip out suspended games)
4. Oklahoma (Bob Stoops/Lincoln Riley): 35-6 (.854)
5. Washington (Chris Petersen): 32-9 (.780)
5. Wisconsin (Paul Chryst): 32-9 (.780)
7. Penn State (James Franklin): 31-9 (.775)
8. Georgia (Kirby Smart): 32-10 (.762)
9. LSU (Ed Orgeron): 25-9 (.735) * excluding the four games Les Miles coached in 2016
10. Michigan (Jim Harbaugh): 28-11 (.718)
10. Washington State (Mike Leach): 28-11 (.718)
12. Stanford (David Shaw): 28-12 (.700)
13. Oklahoma State (Mike Gundy): 27-12 (.692)
14. Notre Dame (Brian Kelly): 26-12 (.684)
15. USC (Clay Helton): 26-13 (.667)
15. Miami (Mark Richt): 26-13 (.667) * Richt just retired
17. West Virginia (Dana Holgorsen): 25-13 (.658) * Holgorsen just gave up on Power Five football
18. Auburn (Gus Malzahn): 26-14 (.650)
18. Northwestern (Pat Fitzgerald): 26-14 (.650)
20. Iowa (Kirk Ferentz): 25-14 (.641)
20. NC State (Dave Doeren): 25-14 (.641)
22. Virginia Tech (Justin Fuente): 25-15 (.625)
22. Utah (Kyle Whittingham): 25-15 (.625)
24. Florida (Jim McElwain/Randy Shannon/Dan Mullen): 23-14 (.622)
25. Kentucky (Mark Stoops): 24-15 (.615)
25. Texas A&M (Kevin Sumlin/Jimbo Fisher): 24-15 (.615)
27. TCU (Gary Patterson): 24-16 (.600)
28. Mississippi State (Dan Mullen/Joe Moorhead): 23-16 (.590)
29. Kansas State (Bill Snyder): 22-16 (.579) * Snyder just retired
30. Georgia Tech (Paul Johnson): 21-16 (.568) * Johnson just retired
31. South Carolina (Will Muschamp): 22-17 (.564)
31. Texas (Charlie Strong/Tom Herman): 22-17 (.564)
31. Wake Forest (Dave Clawson): 22-17 (.564)
34. Florida State (Jimbo Fisher/Willie Taggart): 20-16 (.556)
35. Boston College (Steve Addazio): 21-17 (.553)
35. Minnesota (Tracy Claeys/PJ Fleck): 21-17 (.553)
37. Louisville (Bobby Petrino): 19-17 (.528) * Petrino fired this fall
38. Michigan State (Mark Dantonio): 20-18 (.526)
38. Colorado (Mike MacIntyre): 20-18 (.526) * MacIntyre fired this fall
38. Oregon (Mark Helfrich/Willie Taggart/Mario Cristobal): 20-18 (.526)
41. Pitt (Pat Narduzzi): 20-19 (.513)
41. BYU (Kalani Sitake): 20-19 (.513)
43. Duke (David Cutcliffe): 19-19 (.500)
43. Iowa State (Matt Campbell): 19-19 (.500)
43, Arizona State (Todd Graham/Herm Edwards): 19-19 (.500)
43. Missouri (Barry Odom): 19-19 (.500)
47. Syracuse (Dino Babers): 18-19 (.486)
47. Tennessee (Butch Jones/Jeremy Pruitt): 18-19 (.486)
49. Nebraska (Mike Riley/Scott Frost): 17-20 (.459)
49. Cal (Sonny Dykes/Justin Wilcox): 17-20 (.459)
51. Vanderbilt (Derek Mason): 17-21 (.447)
52. Ole Miss (Hugh Freeze/Matt Luke): 16-20 (.444)
53. Texas Tech (Kliff Kingsbury): 16-21 (.432) * Kingsbury fired this fall
53. Indiana (Kevin Wilson/Tom Allen): 16-21 (.432)
55. Virginia (Bronco Mendenhall): 16-22 (.421)
55. Purdue (Darrell Hazell/Gerad Parker/Jeff Brohm): 16-22 (.421)
57. Arizona (Rich Rodriguez/Kevin Sumlin): 15-22 (.405)
57. Maryland (DJ Durkin/Matt Canada): 15-22 (.405) * Durkin fired this fall
59. Baylor (Jim Grobe/Matt Ruhle): 15-23 (.395)
60. North Carolina (Larry Fedora): 13-23 (.361) * Fedora fired this fall
61. Arkansas (Bret Bielema/Chad Morris): 13-24 (.351)
61. UCLA (Jim Mora/Chip Kelly): 13-24 (.351)
63. Illinois (Lovie Smith): 9-27 (.250)
64. Rutgers (Chris Ash): 7-29 (.194)
64. Oregon State (Gary Andersen/Cory Hall/Jonathan Smith): 7-29 (.194)
66. Kansas (David Beaty): 6-30 (.167) * Beaty fired this fall
Jimbo Fisher across his stints at Florida State and Texas A&M is 24-13. Dan Mullen across his stints at Mississippi State and Florida is 24-14. Kevin Sumlin across his stints at Texas A&M and Arizona is 20-17.
Lincoln Riley, Tom Herman, Willie Taggart, Matt Luke, PJ Fleck, Tom Allen, Jeff Brohm, Justin Wilcox, and Matt Ruhle only have two Power Five head coaching seasons (DJ Durkin too though it's less clear if he'll ever be back).
I post this mainly to get data out there in support of our debates. I realize that each coach exists in a different context and this is not meant to be a ranking of these coaches per se (Bronco Mendenhall, for instance, is low on the list but the trajectory he has engineered is extremely impressive). Even still, I firmly believe that results matter. The above is closer than not to what a ranking of these coaches would look like.
Before I say much more I'll let folks draw their own conclusions but I do think it's important for folks to see that Shaw's stagnation years have been on par with the Harbaugh/Leach/Gundy echelon. Something "average" or "mediocre" is more like Muschamp/Clawson/Addazio. Anyway, I have much more to say but would rather push post and see what folks have to say.
P.S. It should go without saying when I make posts like this: there very well maybe typos/math errors and I hope you'll forgive me if so!
