The PFF Draft Guide is out. Just as a tease without divulging too much behind the pay wall, some Stanford notes:
* Daniel Marx graded out as the #10 pass blocking running back in the draft, behind only Lavon Coleman in the Pac-12. Notably, that puts Marx ahead of potential FB competition like Oregon State's Ryan Nall and San Diego State's Nick Bawden (sorry fborg!). [No surprise, Marx is not a top 15 RB in the draft overall]
* Dalton Schultz graded in the epic category in terms of awfulness in yards per route run, third worst among all TEs in the draft (37 guys). Schultz ranked fourth best among TEs in drop rate. [Schultz is not one of the top 16 TEs overall according to them, which does surprise me. I think I may bet with fborg over PFF here but interesting to see the lack of love.]
* David Bright ranked 41st among 73 guards in pass blocking efficiency. [Bright not one of the top 20 guard.]
* Quenton Meeks is the first guy who made one of the position boards, checking in as the #14 CB. (Colorado's Isaiah Oliver is #6 and the only other Pac-12 guy ranked) Out of 148 CBs, Meeks was 84th in yards per cover snap, 59th in cover snaps per target, 107th in cover snaps per reception, 89th in run stop percentage, and 61st in tackling efficiency. PFF notes he is working against a recent history of Stanford DB struggles in the NFL (I'd note that the two most disappointing, Alex Carter and Jordan Richards, only had one year with Akina, while Ed Reynolds had none). They think his physical stature will be a big asset. They don't love his production.
* Justin Reid did not rank among their top 19 safeties. USC's Chris Hawkins was #17. Holy snub Batman! I am going to stick with my gut based on Reid's excellent college production and predict he gets drafted much higher than this would indicate (this would indicate he's an undrafted type). His omission from the rankings bums me out mightily as it means he doesn't get a profile like Meeks got. Reid was 50th among 107 safeties in run-stop percentage and 27th in tackling efficiency.
* Kevin Palma was 102nd among 148 LBs in tackling efficiency. [Not ranked among top 25 LBs]
* Harrison Phillips checks in as the #5 interior defender. (Vita Vea is #2) He was #77 among 153 interior defenders in pass rush productivity and #1 among 173 interior defenders in run stop percentage. Very serviceable in the former and not just elite but big kahuna top dog in the latter. Unsurprisingly, PFF loves his discipline and awareness in the run game and doesn't think he's special athletically. They think it's an underwhelming DL year in general and think he could get drafted very high because of his immediate ability to contribute in run defense.
* Eric Cotton is #28 among 153 interior defenders in pass rush productivity. Absolutely elite. He was #119 among #153 interior defenders in run stop efficiency, so a clear liability there. [Not ranked among top 25 interior defenders]
* Peter Kalambayi is #28 among 118 edge defenders in pass rush productivity and #52 among 124 edge defenders in run stop percentage. [Not ranked among top 15 edge defenders. Personally, I think elite pass rushing plus above-average run stopping should make him a very attractive prospect. For comparison, the #14 edge defender according to PFF (the lowest Power Five guy on their board) is Florida State's Josh Sweat (#65 in pass rush productivity and #20 in run stop percentage). Looks very, very close to Kalambayi's quality to me by PFF's own metrics. Maybe Kalambayi was the last man out for PFF but it's frustrating to see that happen with Schultz, Reid, and Kalambayi - all are NFL players in my book.]
* Mike Tyler is #44 among 118 edge defenders in pass rush productivity and #120 among 124 edge defenders in run stop percentage. Like Cotton, another very good pass rusher done in by being bad at stopping the run (atrocious in Tyler's case).
All in all, I love getting PFF's data out there and always very much appreciate their efforts to (somewhat) objectively and analytically sort out the talent pool, but even through my lens that always tries not to be a homer and go where the data points not ranking Schultz or Reid or Kalambayi strikes me as very questionable. I could see going out on a limb on one or two of those but Stanford only having two of the 235 prospects they profiled does not pass the smell test for me. I sure hope I am right and that they are significantly underrating Stanford's talent because if not the draft will be a depressing affair for us.
* Daniel Marx graded out as the #10 pass blocking running back in the draft, behind only Lavon Coleman in the Pac-12. Notably, that puts Marx ahead of potential FB competition like Oregon State's Ryan Nall and San Diego State's Nick Bawden (sorry fborg!). [No surprise, Marx is not a top 15 RB in the draft overall]
* Dalton Schultz graded in the epic category in terms of awfulness in yards per route run, third worst among all TEs in the draft (37 guys). Schultz ranked fourth best among TEs in drop rate. [Schultz is not one of the top 16 TEs overall according to them, which does surprise me. I think I may bet with fborg over PFF here but interesting to see the lack of love.]
* David Bright ranked 41st among 73 guards in pass blocking efficiency. [Bright not one of the top 20 guard.]
* Quenton Meeks is the first guy who made one of the position boards, checking in as the #14 CB. (Colorado's Isaiah Oliver is #6 and the only other Pac-12 guy ranked) Out of 148 CBs, Meeks was 84th in yards per cover snap, 59th in cover snaps per target, 107th in cover snaps per reception, 89th in run stop percentage, and 61st in tackling efficiency. PFF notes he is working against a recent history of Stanford DB struggles in the NFL (I'd note that the two most disappointing, Alex Carter and Jordan Richards, only had one year with Akina, while Ed Reynolds had none). They think his physical stature will be a big asset. They don't love his production.
* Justin Reid did not rank among their top 19 safeties. USC's Chris Hawkins was #17. Holy snub Batman! I am going to stick with my gut based on Reid's excellent college production and predict he gets drafted much higher than this would indicate (this would indicate he's an undrafted type). His omission from the rankings bums me out mightily as it means he doesn't get a profile like Meeks got. Reid was 50th among 107 safeties in run-stop percentage and 27th in tackling efficiency.
* Kevin Palma was 102nd among 148 LBs in tackling efficiency. [Not ranked among top 25 LBs]
* Harrison Phillips checks in as the #5 interior defender. (Vita Vea is #2) He was #77 among 153 interior defenders in pass rush productivity and #1 among 173 interior defenders in run stop percentage. Very serviceable in the former and not just elite but big kahuna top dog in the latter. Unsurprisingly, PFF loves his discipline and awareness in the run game and doesn't think he's special athletically. They think it's an underwhelming DL year in general and think he could get drafted very high because of his immediate ability to contribute in run defense.
* Eric Cotton is #28 among 153 interior defenders in pass rush productivity. Absolutely elite. He was #119 among #153 interior defenders in run stop efficiency, so a clear liability there. [Not ranked among top 25 interior defenders]
* Peter Kalambayi is #28 among 118 edge defenders in pass rush productivity and #52 among 124 edge defenders in run stop percentage. [Not ranked among top 15 edge defenders. Personally, I think elite pass rushing plus above-average run stopping should make him a very attractive prospect. For comparison, the #14 edge defender according to PFF (the lowest Power Five guy on their board) is Florida State's Josh Sweat (#65 in pass rush productivity and #20 in run stop percentage). Looks very, very close to Kalambayi's quality to me by PFF's own metrics. Maybe Kalambayi was the last man out for PFF but it's frustrating to see that happen with Schultz, Reid, and Kalambayi - all are NFL players in my book.]
* Mike Tyler is #44 among 118 edge defenders in pass rush productivity and #120 among 124 edge defenders in run stop percentage. Like Cotton, another very good pass rusher done in by being bad at stopping the run (atrocious in Tyler's case).
All in all, I love getting PFF's data out there and always very much appreciate their efforts to (somewhat) objectively and analytically sort out the talent pool, but even through my lens that always tries not to be a homer and go where the data points not ranking Schultz or Reid or Kalambayi strikes me as very questionable. I could see going out on a limb on one or two of those but Stanford only having two of the 235 prospects they profiled does not pass the smell test for me. I sure hope I am right and that they are significantly underrating Stanford's talent because if not the draft will be a depressing affair for us.
